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RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY HARLEY BALZER GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY CEIP, NOV. 30, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY HARLEY BALZER GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY CEIP, NOV. 30, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

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2 RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY HARLEY BALZER GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY CEIP, NOV. 30, 2012

3 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.2 BOOK OUTLINE Puzzle: Why China, Not Russia? Existing Explanations Alternative: Quality of Integration With Global Economy Focus On 4 INTERRELATED Topics: –Economic Regionalism –Leading Sectors –Corruption –Education, Science & Technology, Innovation 2

4 3 Puzzle Why China and not Russia? NOT what modernization theory would have predicted December 2004: –Baikal Finanz buys Yuganskneftegaz –Lenovo buys IBM PC Division Commodities vs. Industry Best (China) and Worst (Russia) G-20 performers in 2008-12 crisis 3Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

5 4 OUTLINE FOR TODAY Russia and China in Global Knowledge Economy Education S&T Indicators/Cases/Innovation –Some Numbers –Autos –Nanotech –IT Changing Relationship Conclusion: Why China, Not Russia 4Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

6 2 DISCLAIMERS 1.I derive no pleasure from this depiction of the Russian case. 2.The China story describes how they got to where they are; it is not a prediction of where they will be in the future (Winners problem. Pettis 2011). Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.5

7 6 LIVANOV RIGHT ABOUT DECLINE Russia finally joined WTO Worst performance among emerging markets in crisis. Lost decade; no diversification Medvedev claimed lessons from crisis But few concrete achievements Russia losing Education and S&T capacity 6Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

8 7 Output Growth (%) RussiaChina 2008 5.6 9.6 2009 -9.0 8.7 2010 3.6 10.0 2011 3.4 9.7 2012(estimates) 3.5 7.5 7Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

9 H. Balzer London Oct. 20108 Growth in Research Output, 1999-2008 8Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

10 Share of Global Publications, 2010 9Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

11 10 NOT What Everyone Expected Modernization theory –Literacy; higher education –Urbanization; industrialization –Media; communication Asian miracle –Education necessary, not sufficient Cf 1950s predictions: Rangoon and Manila, NOT Seoul. China got education and S&T systems from USSR = similar challenge to adapt. 10Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

12 11 Existing Explanations for Chinas Economic Performance Initial Conditions Policy Will go fast; can come back in Q&A 11Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

13 12 Initial Conditions I Abundant supply of low-cost labor not covered by the welfare system Decision to begin reforms with agriculture Shorter duration of communist rule Fewer distortions Less complete Communist Party penetration of society Qualitative differences in leadership (Stalin vs. Mao) 12Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

14 13 Initial Conditions II Communities of co-ethnics willing to provide investment capital Continuity hypothesis (2 versions) –Neo-Ming: restore position before the 18 th century = world leader; –Maoist: strong, sovereign state and cohesive ruling party. (Putins favorite) 13Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

15 14 Policy Gradual approach Stable environment Authoritarian leadership (Putins other favorite) 14Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

16 15 Gradualism? USSR 30 years of reforms. Hungary goulash communism China Rapid de-collectivization Fevers and intense competition resulting from partial openings (Zweig). Real gradualism was gradual acceptance of unintended private sector. Not necessarily permanent. 15Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

17 16 Stable? Democracy Wall 1979 Anti-Spiritual Pollution 1983 Bourgeois Liberalism 1987 Tiananmen 1989 Each time, economic reforms resumed, due to COALITIONS of winners, investors and political leaders. Zweig: Development coalitions Pei: Social takeover coalitions Howell: Spiraling out 16Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

18 17 Authoritarian? Dengs Three Nos –No promotion of privatization –No propaganda campaign –No crackdown Competition Repeated pattern: success where state partially lost control (Zweig, Nee and Opper) State priorities often not achieved, but (some) regions develop 17Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

19 18 Alternative Explanation Character of integration with the international economy: Thick vs. Thin NOT simply open or closed (cf Japan) Chinas Thick integration generated coalitions of entrepreneurs, officials and foreign investors = able to win (some) battles: BOTTOM-UP DEVELOPMENT Nothing comparable in democratic Russia 18Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

20 19 Chinese Elites Embrace Globalization, Russians Not Bolshevik heritage? Time under communism? Timing of the opening? –Cultural Revolutions –Self-confidence of leaders 19Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

21 20 Quality of Integration China Thick; Russia Thin Chinese see Globalization as their best chance to catch up and surpass Russians view Globalization as Americanization, designed to relegate them to junior partner status or worse. Threatens epistemic communities. 20Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

22 BOOK OUTLINE: FOUR INTERRELATED TOPICS DEMONSTRATING QUALITY OF INTEGRATION 1.REGIONALISMS (Sub, Trans, Multi-National) 2.SECTORAL POLICY 3.CORRUPTION 4.EDUCATION, SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION 21Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

23 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.22 4) Education, Science & Technology, Innovation Stunning reversal of positions Russian Universities in decline China now the fastest-growing R&D community, changing innovation model. Russia less integrated with global S&T = increasingly less important. 22

24 INTERRELATED Regions become financial supporters of education, R&D, innovation. Competition. Growing industrial sectors create demand for R&D and innovation, & provide jobs. Less damaging forms of corruption = less severely distort merit-based decisions, less inhibit competition Knowledge economy more likely to promote merit and competition. Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.23

25 Global Education Competition: (human & financial resources, status) For students (both bodies and brains) For faculty (teachers and researchers; stars) For managers (education, research, development) For status = RATINGS GAME For financial support (state and private) CIRCULATION KEY = INCREASES COMPETITION 24Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

26 25 Higher Education Rapid expansion in both sysems = quality problems: students AND faculty Both emphasizing elite institutions –China 211 (106; 9 top priority) –Russia National Research (29) and Federal (8 + 2) Universities Chinese internationalizing; Russians losing the best graduates, weak linkages China far greater success in attracting SOME returnees 25Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

27 26 Increased Enrollments Russia:China: 1990 2,824,500 (2%)19971,000,000 2008 7,513,000 (5%)20065,500,000 (China target of 30,000,000 by 2010) Neither increasing faculty to keep up 26Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

28 27 Doctoral Degrees: Science & Eng. Nov. 30, 2012

29 Foreign Student Enrollment 2009 Russia: 90,000 -20% Kazakhstan -20% Other CIS -40% Asia (majority from China) China: >300,000 Top 5 Sources: -South Korea -Japan -United States -Vietnam -Thailand 28Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

30 Students Abroad Nov. 30, 201229

31 30 The Education Ratings Game U.S. News & World Report Times Higher Education Supplement Jiao Tong U. Shanghai Spanish Web-based Russian system Grande École des Mines Paris Tech 2011 Iranian Islamic Universities 30Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

32 31 Times Top 200, 2009 Hong Kong: ( 5) #s 24, 35, 46, 124, 195 China: (6) #s 49, 52, 103, 153, 154, 168 Russia (2): –155 Moscow Lomonosov –168 St. Petersburg State (Mendeleev) 2012 Russia drops out of top 200 31Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

33 32 Shanghai Jiao Tong Top 100 77: Moscow State (Lomonosov) No Chinese or Hong Kong Universities in the top 100 32Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

34 33 Russian Version of Rankings TOP 10 (Global universities ranking) 1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA 2 California Institute of Technology, USA 3 University of Tokyo, Japan 4 Columbia University, USA 5 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia 6 Harvard University, USA 7 Stanford University, USA 8 University of Cambridge, UK 9 Johns Hopkins University, USA 10 University of Chicago, USA 33Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

35 34 Results of Russian Ranking 2 in Top 100 (Moscow & St. Petersburg) No Chinese or HK in Top 100 U. of MN # 26; U. of MD # 28 Second 100: 2 Russia; 2 China; 2 HK Third 100: 3 Russia; 2 China 301-430: 45 Russian 52 of 430 = 12% 34Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

36 Real Life: ШПАРГАЛКИ 35Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

37 Real Life: внедрение 36Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

38 Russian Mass Tertiary Education = Growing Burden on Students 2/3 at State institutions pay tuition No price competition (yet) Cost rising, tied to budget students Corruption/Fraud Demographic situation makes this unsustainable 37Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

39 38Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

40 39Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

41 40 Perspective: Russia enrolls more students into higher education than graduate from secondary school. China has a goal of enrolling 25% of secondary school graduates in all forms of advanced education by 2010. BUT China appears to be getting a higher return on its investment. - Better ratings - PISA scores (Shanghai) - Returnees 40Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

42 Emigration a Problem for Both China now losing entrepreneurs Russia losing creative class. Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.41

43 42 Migration & Creative Class quality of life and community even more pronounced for S&T. Best scientists go where the best work is being done = Technology clusters Focus on brain drain often ignores brain gain, and brain circulation. Putin willing to let creative people leave if they are potential opposition. 42Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

44 43 Chinese Understanding of Issue Initial Drain. Deng said necessary & unavoidable. He underestimated by 50%. Learned to compete to attract SOME OF them back Competition between regions and institutions = INCENTIVES Returnees in general better than those who stayed home (self-selection.?) 43Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

45 44 Russian Ambivalence Resentment of those who left Housing issue Subject to all problems of managing research in Russian environment. Do not recognize foreign degrees Do not permit back-and-forth (beginning to change). Official Programs vs. epistemic communities & corruption. 44Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

46 H. Balzer London Oct. 201045 Growth in Research Output, 1999-2008 Nov. 30, 2012

47 46 Publications Growth, 1990-2008 46Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

48 47 Numbers of Researchers 47Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

49 48 Change in # of Researchers Nov. 30, 2012

50 PATENT APPLICATIONS TOP FIVE OFFICES, 1995 & 2010 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.49

51 PATENT GRANTS TOP FIVE OFFICES, 1995 & 2010 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.50

52 PATENT GRANTS, 2010 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.51

53 UTILITY MODEL GRANTS, 2010 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.52

54 INDUSTRIAL DESIGN APPLICATION/REGISTRATION TRENDS Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.53

55 PROBLEMS IN THE RUSSIAN SYSTEM Science a system for generating knowledge Science policy does not include technology or innovation Low financing, almost entirely from State budget: 29 th in world in share of GDP. –(OECD 2/3 private funding; Russia just 27%) Cadres Bureaucracy and Corruption Nov. 13, 2012Balzer, Govt 407, S T & I54

56 CHINA PROBLEMS Corruption and Falsification, including by returnees Overly rigid incentives/criteria Nobel mania Time Horizon Lack of new product innovation Competition sometimes excessive Quality Growing role of SOEs deprives SMEs of talent and financing. Nov. 13, 2012Balzer, Govt 407, S T & I55

57 AUTO & TRUCK PRODUCTION, 2011 Russia 2 of top 50 Producers (24 & 46) China 16 of top 50 producers (17, 19, 20, 23, 25, 26, 27, 30, 31, 32, 35 37, 40, 42, 43, 47, 48) Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.56

58 57 BMW 7 vs BYD F6 57Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

59 58 Logos 58Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

60 SETTING PRIORITIES Overcoming the resource curse works when the resource sector becomes the Knowledge-based sector Russia buying foreign technology for oil and gas Russian priority sectors (to 2020) are: Information & TelecomNanotechnology Life SciencesBiotechnology Transport & SpaceClean Energy Security & Counter-terrorAdvanced Weapons Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.59

61 60 Nanotechnology THE Russian program for Putin –Not clear why: not a strength –Too small to see? Dwarfed by U.S. spending China major program with little fanfare World Nanotechnology Patents 2004-06: USA43% China 1% (13 th ) Russia0.4% (22 nd ) 60Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

62 Home Country: Nanotech Patents Nov. 13, 2012Balzer, Govt 407, S T & I61

63 62 Skolkovo: The Innovation Center Chosen over Tomsk, Novosibirsk, & St. Petersburg, March 19, 2010. Intend to develop as rapidly as possible Dvorkovich and Surkov describing different planets. System change or Enclave? 62Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

64 63 Zhongguancun 63Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

65 64 Zhongguancun 64Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

66 H. Balzer London Oct. 201065 Skolkovo Site 2009 65Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

67 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.66 Skolkovo, 2009 66

68 Skolkovo, 2010 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.67

69 Skolkovo Hypercube, 2012 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.68

70 69 Explaining Zhongguancun Success Beijing government liberal approach to networks; some funding. (Good Mother-In-Law, Segal 2003) Nonhierarchical relationships: Lacked power to control SOEs or spin-offs Ownership restructured = shareholders (Market provides capital, undermines hierarchy) Outperformed Shanghai, Xian & Guangzhou Indigenous companies learn from MNCs but focus on domestic market. (Zhou 2008) Key role of returnees. Red Queen innovation model. 69Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

71 INNOVATION No Russian Global Manufacturing Brands China gets bad press on innovation –Just imitate (cf Japan 1950s) –Do take risks; innovation happening –Lenovo, Heier, Baidu, Tencent Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.70

72 Value Added Computers, etc. Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.71

73 Value Added in High-Tech Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.72

74 Value-Added in Business/Financial Services and Communic. (3 to 7%) Nov. 30, 2012 For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U. 73

75 74 Solving the Puzzle Why has Russia not maintained its lead in Education and S&T? China higher rankings, more spending China growing value-added China leading in clean technology, nanotech and IT. 74Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

76 75 Misleading Answers Soviet system overrated Money Resource curse Flawed privatization Flawed policy advice Mentalitet State programs by authoritarian regime 75Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

77 76 More Promising Answers Incentive structures & Competition Epistemic communities Institutions (including corruption) This is good news: problems can be mitigated through incentives and competition 76Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

78 AVOID IDEALIZING CHINA Not yet product innovation (though rapid manufacturing changes; Red Queen) Much assembly of foreign components Competition also produces fraud and angst BUT: –Enormous domestic market for small steps –Far higher value-added than would predict (3 times) –Avoid first mover costs, for now –Investment in Education and S&T could pay off in next decade 77Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

79 78 The Lessons from China Student has become the model Embracing Globalization reflects/creates economic and social interests. Domestic market and global production allow Red Queen Run (Breznitz & Murphree) Self-interested actors allied with supporters of reform fight retrenchment. Battle ongoing. KEY IS PARTIAL LOSS OF CONTROL. COMPETITION/EPISTEMIC COMMUNITIES 78Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

80 THANKS FOR STAYING AWAKE QUESTIONS? 79Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

81 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.80

82 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.81

83 82 Trade Restrictions 2008-09 82Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

84 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.83 1)Economic Regionalism: Within, Across and Among States Both lost control over regions in 1980s –In China, this produced rapid growth in some areas –In Russia, Involution Russia-China border weakest integration in East Asia. Asian region dynamic; CIS moribund; Eurasian Union not promising Chinese regions support education & innovation 83

85 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.84 2) Leading Sectors Perhaps overdetermined: Resources vs. Industry BUT not clear in 1991, especially given inherited human capital & oil prices at time China commerce and manufacturing, increasingly value-added (3x expected); new varieties of innovation Russia low productivity outside energy sector; diversification a slogan, not practice. 84

86 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.85 3) BRIC CORRUPTION 2009 Transparency International: Corruption Perceptions Index: India 74 China 79 Brazil 84 Russia 146 85

87 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U. DOING BUSINESS 2009 CHINA # 20 RUSSIA # 21 EXTENT vs. QUALITY of Corruption 86

88 BRIC GLOBAL BRANDS CHINA: Lenovo, Huawei, Haier INDIA: Tata, Infosys, Wipro Synonomous with offshore IT BRAZIL: Embrarer; BioTech Leader in Synfuels and Agribusiness RUSSIA: Gazprom; Lukoil Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.87

89 G-20 Science, 1996-2008 88Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

90 89 Industrial Design Applications, 2007 (different scales) Nov. 30, 2012

91 PROBLEMS IN THE RUSSIAN SYSTEM Science a system for generating knowledge Science policy does not include technology or innovation Low financing, almost entirely from State budget: 29 th in world in share of GDP. –(OECD 2/3 private funding; Russia just 27%) Cadres Bureaucracy and Corruption Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.90

92 CADRES Large Brain Drain, Internal & External No Brain Gain, Little Circulation Ageing –Age 40-59 HALF of proportion in U.S. –Over 60 3 times share in U.S. Programs to attract talent from abroad modest and insulated. Nov. 13, 2012Balzer, Govt 407, S T & I91

93 Bureaucratic Obstacles Grants small; funds often late Ambiguous legal status Federal Programs not transparent; criteria vague Regulations often limit awards: –Cost and length rather than quality –Specific budget categories Resist competition Nov. 13, 2012Balzer, Govt 407, S T & I92

94 CORRUPTION Customs barriers No competitive bidding on equipment Cost effectiveness about 10-15% of what is realized abroad Officials emphasize infrastructure projects Travel and large equipment purchases Nov. 13, 2012Balzer, Govt 407, S T & I93

95 Russia and Global Knowledge Econ. Russia Similar in what it confronts: –Mass Tertiary Education –Demands of Knowledge Economy –Resource Constraints Russia outlier in: –Demographic crisis –Academy of Sciences Role –Bureaucratic obstacles –Not confronting fraud and corruption –Resistance to internationalization (epistemic communities) 94Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

96 Institutional Expansion 95Nov. 30, 2012

97 For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U. State vs. Private Russian Private VUZy: 42% of institutions 17% of the students Full-Time Study: State: >50% Private: <25% Nov. 30, 201296

98 For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U. VUZ Faculty Resources YEARSTATEPRIVATE 1993/94239,800 3,800 1995/96240,20013,000 2000/01265,20042,200 2005/06322,10065,200 2007/08340,40078,800 2008/09341,10063,400 2009/10342,70054,800 (Students increase 165%; Faculty 66%; includes sovmetitelstvo.) Nov. 30, 201297

99 98 Russian Elite Universities 2006-08: 57 Innovative Universities 2009-2010: Research Universities 2 Pilot; 12 & 15 by competitions = 29 Moscow and St. Petersburg Federal Universities (no competition) 2 Pilot; 6 by decree = 8 (could increase) (Total of 39 with special status, of 660) 98Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

100 99 Chinese Key Universities 195611 197888 1993211 program goal of 100 by 2000 Currently 106 985 Program in 1998: 9 special funding –About 30 early 2000s –2010 included 49 99Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

101 U.S. News USA Top 20, 2011 1.Harvard 2Princeton 3Yale 4Columbia 5Stanford 5U. Pennsylvania 7California Inst. Techno. 7MIT 9Dartmouth 9Duke 9U. Chicago 12.Northwestern 13.Johns Hopkins 13. Washington U. (St. Louis) 15.Brown 15. Cornell 17.Rice 17Vanderbilt 19Notre Dame 20Emory 100Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

102 U.S. News #s 21-25, 2011 21Georgetown 22U. California Berkeley 23Carnegie Mellon 23U. of Southern California 25UCLA 25U. of Virginia 25Wake Forest U. [ONLY 3 of top 27 Not Private] 101Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

103 Male Births 102Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

104 H. Balzer London Oct. 2010103 Research Articles by Field Nov. 30, 2012

105 G-20 Science, 1996-2008 104Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

106 Patent Per R&D $, 2001-10 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.105

107 106 Chinese Policies for Returnees May choose where to work; Given decent housing Special grants, plus competition for national research support Special schools for children with poor Chinese language skills WTO Membership increased demand. 2002 Diaspora Model: Accepted that most/best would not return permanently. 2003 Hu and Zeng three talks: Returnees Irreplaceable Focus on improving overall climate. 106Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

108 107 Not Entirely Positive Conflicts between retuning sea turtles and land turtles who did not go abroad. Some leave again; others go into business. Recourse to swallows who spend part of year in China: only way to get the top people. Fraud/including by those overseas 107Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

109 108 Benefits Outweigh Costs Returnees more likely to import technology. Stronger global networks; more grants and fellowships; publish more in international journals. Market forces most important factor in attracting people back: Incentives and competition. Virtuous circle (Jonkers 2010): returnees demand international standards 108Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

110 109 Lada 2010 109Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

111 110 Mass Automobile Production 110Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

112 111 Top 4 Auto Producers, 2000-06 111Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

113 112 Auto Manufacture in China, 2000-06 112Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

114 113 Mercedes C vs. Geely Merrie 300 113Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

115 114 Smart/Chinese Smart 114Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

116 115 Lada C Concept Car 115Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

117 116 Lada 2010 116Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

118 117 IT: Skolkovo vs. Zhongguancun Unique phenomena Most Tech Corridors NOT in Capitals: –Silicon Valley; Route 128, N. VA. –Bangalore –Grenoble –Cambridge –Milan 117Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.

119 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.118 Zhongguancun 118

120 Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.119 Skolkovo Architect Plans 119

121 Medvedevs 5 Priority Sectors, November, 2011 Medical Technology Energy and Energy Efficiency Information Technology Space & Space Science Telecommunications Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.120

122 CADRES Large Brain Drain, Internal & External No Brain Gain, Little Circulation Ageing –Age 40-59 HALF of proportion in U.S. –Over 60 3 times share in U.S. Programs to attract talent from abroad modest and insulated. Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.121

123 Bureaucratic Obstacles Grants small; funds often late Ambiguous legal status Federal Programs not transparent; criteria vague Regulations often limit awards: –Cost and length rather than quality –Specific budget categories Resist competition Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.122

124 CORRUPTION Customs barriers No competitive bidding on equipment Cost effectiveness about 10-15% of what is realized abroad Officials emphasize infrastructure projects Travel and large equipment purchases Nov. 30, 2012For CEIP, H. Balzer, Georgetown U.123


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