Presentation on theme: "Why Nuclear Electricity for India? V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA & Department of Engineering & Public."— Presentation transcript:
Why Nuclear Electricity for India? V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA & Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA
Growth of Indias Power Sector Serious Growth after 60s Generation 6 th largest in world Per capita consumption low Close to 95% villages electrified Ministry of Power, Government of India
The Status Installed Capacity > 120 GW Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh Coal dominant energy source (58%) Ministry of Power, Government of India
Indias Future Growth India needs sustained economic growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI Growth in last few years ~ 5%- 7% Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power –Peak shortfall –Average shortfall –High T&D Losses: –Unscheduled black-outs, especially in rural areas –Supply to agriculture sector not metered and almost free Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.
Growth Areas Present growth is skills or resource driven (exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture) Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering Rural sector to play a major role (agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency) Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,) Manufacturing The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth
Elasticity and Electric Power Needs Target economic growth ~ 8% Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2 Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015: –Capacity addition –Investments –Fuel mix –Pricing and Policies –T&D reforms Review of State Electricity Boards
Electric Power Requirements Required for 8% economic growth by 2015: Installed Capacity250 GW Generation1500 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption1000 kWh
The Task Ahead Need to add 135 GW in ten years –13,500 MW required per annum –~ One power plant per month –China adds one per week !! –Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)
Fuel Supply: Options for Future Coal –Conventional –Gasification Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear –PHWR + FB + AHWR –PLWR Wind –On-shore –Off-shore Biomass Solar –Photo voltaic –Concentrating Solar Power FuelPresentIn 2015 Coal67,166 MW? Gas11,840 MW? Hydro30,135 MW? Nuclear2,720 MW? Wind2,488 MW? Biomass1,000 MW? Solar-? TOTAL115,035 MW250,000 MW
King Coal ! Reserves –Proven 91 billion Tons –Indicated116 billion Tons –Inferred 37 billion Tons –TOTAL245 billion Tons Coal reserves:> 250 years at present levels of consumption Concentrated in Eastern India
Indian Coal Quality High ash: 25%-45% Low sulfur< 0.5% Low energy content CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh Issues with coal: –Ash disposal: annual ash generation > 90 million tons –CO2 emissions Heating Value (BTU/lb) Ash Content (%) Sulfur (%) Illinois # 610,90011.003.25 Wyodak11,9605.970.40 WPC Utah11,2405.320.61 Indian Coal6,50025-45<0.5
Coal: Future Scenarios Projections of coal demand (2015): –High growth : 580 MT –BAU scenario: 380 MT –Domestic production will not be enough. Imports needed Issues: –Ash generation > 200 million Tons –CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons –Particulate and NO x emissions (presently not regulated) –Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail transportation stagnation
Indias CO2 Emissions Indias fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003: –Coal666 MMT –Petroleum305 MMT –Natural Gas53 MMT Indias CO 2 emissions rapidly growing –Trebled during 1981-2001 India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO 2 –However future may not be so EIA, US Department of Energy IndiaChinaTotal 19801.64% 7.83%9.47% 20035.60%19.34%24.93% Share of global emissions
Options with Coal Coals dominance will undoubtedly continue. –Availability –Cheap The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues. Installed Capacity of Coal (GW) Coal Required (Million MT) CO 2 Emissions (Million MT) Upper CaseCoal still contributes 60% of capacity ~ 150 GW580 MMT850 MMT Lower CaseAggressive deployment of nuclear and natural gas technologies ~ 120 GW470 MMT690 MMT Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%
Hydro-Electricity Inferred potential > 120 GW Installed capacity 30 GW Most big projects are in North- Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects Environmental issues Water sharing agreements with neighbors National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
Hydro-Electric Potential StateCapacity (MW) DulhastiJ&K390 Dhauliganga Stage - IDhauliganga Stage - I *Uttaranchal140 Teesta Stage VSikkim510 Loktak DownstreamManipur90 Parbati-IIHimachal Pradesh800 Sewa-IIJ&K120 Subansiri LowerArunachal Pradesh2000 Teesta Lower Dam-IIIWest Bengal132 OmkareshwarMadhya Pradesh520 TOTAL4702 Details of projects under construction Projects awaiting clearance and government approval 2,570 MW Projects at DPR and infrastructure development stage 11,620 MW Projects under survey and investigation 11,000 MW Ongoing and Planned Projects Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015
Natural Gas Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide Indian statistics (2004-05): Consumption: > 31 BCM/year Primary uses: Power41% Fertilizer32% Sponge Iron 4% Other23% Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking) Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)
Natural Gas Pipelines Gas Authority of India Limited Indias Gas Pipelines Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)
Imports of Gas LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high –1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power –1 BCM gas ~.8 GW of power thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power Initial imports wont necessarily add to elec. capacity –Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses as well More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies
Biomass India predominantly agricultural country. Annual production of agro-forest and processing residues: 350 million tons Power generation potential > 22,000 MW Advantages: –Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers. –Technology reasonably well developed –Environmentally friendly: No net CO 2 emissions FeedstockExamplesPotentialInstalled Agro-forest residues Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells 17,000 MW50 MW Processing residues Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse 5,000 MW1000 MW
Biomass Conversion Technologies Gasifier-reciprocating engine –Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible –Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for ignition Cost of electricity is high –Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas –Overall efficiency ~ 20% –Largest gasifier 100 kW Fluidized bed combustion boilers –Rice husk and bagasse –25%-30% –Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in various sugar mills –Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !! 50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka
Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW –~ 75% is irrigation pumps –Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few hours a day Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW –Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust Cost of generation reasonable –$ 0.06-0.07 per kWh BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible: –Economics unviable due to low PLF –People not willing to pay when state gives free ! –Loss of organic fertilizer on land Good potential from bagasse and husk: –Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.
Wind Energy Gross potential: 45,000 MW (assuming 1% land availability in potential areas) Technical potential: 13,000 MW (assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas) Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s India ranks 5 th in the world –Present installed capacity ~ 3000 MW Site selection issues: –More from fiscal benefits than from power –Many plants not operating –Low average load factor~13% Global Wind Energy Council World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries Denmark In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US US
Off-shore Wind in Europe Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects. Wind speeds higher Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km ! CountryCapacityDepth (m)Distance from Shore (km) Remarks Denmark160 MW6 – 12 m14 – 20 kmCompleted UK60 MW4 – 8 m2.3 kmCompleted Denmark23 MW20 m3.5 kmCompleted Denmark5 MW3 – 5 m6 kmCompleted Sweden10 MW6 – 10 m5 kmCompleted Germany1040 MW30 m43 – 50 kmPlanned Netherlands120 MW20 – 24 m23 kmPlanned Germany240 MW20 m34 kmPlanned Ireland520 MW2 – 5 m10 kmPartly complete
Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under commission Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using (Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.
Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global technologies, materials or services Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000 MWe annually Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited
Why Cooperate? India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth It must generate power from all energy sources Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation & global warming Limitations of renewable energy sources
Why Cooperate? Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power & Responsibility R&D: cooperation and Collaboration Bilateral trade & economic issues Sharing global energy resources Environmental concerns Shared vision: secular, democratic & caring society
Why Cooperate? Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent. --- David King, Science Advisor to Prime Minister of UK
An Action Plan Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years) Investments in R&D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable &affordable
An Action Plan Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives
Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015 Same Fuel Mix as nowAggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition Reduction in annual coal consumption~ 100 Million Tons Reduction in annual CO 2 Emissions> 170 Million Tons ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !
What If…. India & China Were Developedby 2013? Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!) CO 2 concentration > 400 ppm Temperature rise > 0.5 C Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year) US> 14,000 India600 China1300 Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh) Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013 (Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)
What If India & China Guzzle Oil? Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day) US> 750 India4 China8 Present Number of Cars per 1000 World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !! At Present 42 years Target: 250 Cars per 1000
I saw God In the smile of the poor Mahatma Gandhi
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