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Adaptive Designs Working Group September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Clinical Trials Short Course Presenters: Michael.

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Presentation on theme: "Adaptive Designs Working Group September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Clinical Trials Short Course Presenters: Michael."— Presentation transcript:

1 Adaptive Designs Working Group September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Clinical Trials Short Course Presenters: Michael Krams, M.D., Wyeth Research Vladimir Dragalin, Ph.D., Wyeth Research Jeff Maca, Ph.D., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Keaven Anderson, Ph.D., Merck Research Laboratories Paul Gallo, Ph.D., Novartis Pharmaceuticals

2 2 Adaptive Designs Working Group Short Course Outline Topics Time Presenter General Introduction 10 min Mike Krams Terminology and Classification 40 min Vlad Dragalin Adaptive Seamless Design 40 min Jeff Maca Break 20 min Sample Size Reestimation and Group Sequential Design 40 min Keaven Anderson Logistic, Operational and Regulatory Issues 40 min Paul Gallo General Discussion 20 min

3 Adaptive Designs Working Group September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Designs General Introduction Michael Krams Wyeth Research On behalf of the PhRMA Adaptive Designs Working Group

4 4 Adaptive Designs Working Group PhRMA Adaptive Designs Working Group Co-Chairs: Michael Krams Brenda Gaydos Authors: Keaven Anderson Suman Bhattacharya Alun Bedding Don Berry Frank Bretz Christy Chuang-Stein Vlad Dragalin Paul Gallo Brenda Gaydos Michael Krams Qing Liu Jeff Maca Inna Perevozskaya Jose Pinheiro Judith Quinlan Members: Carl-Fredrik Burman David DeBrota Jonathan Denne Greg Enas Richard Entsuah Andy Grieve David Henry Tony Ho Telba Irony Larry Lesko Gary Littman Cyrus Mehta Allan Pallay Michael Poole Rick Sax Jerry Schindler Michael D Smith Marc Walton Sue-Jane Wang Gernot Wassmer Pauline Williams

5 5 Adaptive Designs Working Group Vision To establish a dialogue between statisticians, clinicians, regulators and other lines within the Pharmaceutical Industry, Health Authorities and Academia, with a goal to contribute to developing a consensus position on when and how to consider the use of adaptive designs in clinical drug development.

6 6 Adaptive Designs Working Group Mission To facilitate the implementation adaptive designs, but only where appropriate To contribute to standardizing the terminology and classification in the rapidly evolving field of adaptive designs To contribute to educational and information sharing efforts on adaptive designs To interact with experts within Health Authorities (FDA, EMEA, and others) and Academia to sharpen our thinking on defining the scope of adaptive designs To support our colleagues in health authorities in their work towards the formulation of regulatory draft guidance documents on the topic of adaptive designs.

7 7 Adaptive Designs Working Group Executive Summary of White Paper

8 8 Adaptive Designs Working Group Full White Paper - to appear in DIJ in Nov 2006

9 9 Adaptive Designs Working Group PhRMA/FDA conference on Adaptive Design: Opportunities, Challenges and Scope in Drug Development Nov 13/14 th, 2006 Marriott Bethesda North Hotel & Conference Center North Bethesda, MD 20852 Program committee Dennis Erb Merck Brenda Gaydos Eli Lilly Michael Krams Wyeth, Co-Chair Walt Offen Eli Lilly, Co-Chair Frank Shen BMS Luc Truyen J&J Greg Campbell FDA CDRH Shirley Murphy FDA CDER Robert ONeill FDA CDER Robert Powell FDA CDER Marc Walton FDA CDER Sue Jane Wang FDA CDER

10 10 Adaptive Designs Working Group

11 September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Designs Terminology and Classification Vlad Dragalin Biomedical Data Sciences GlaxoSmithKline (currently with Wyeth Research)

12 12 Adaptive Designs Working Group Primary PhRMA references PhRMA White Paper section: Dragalin V. Adaptive Designs: Terminology and Classification. Drug Information Journal. 2006; 40(4): 425-436.

13 13 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Definition and general structure of adaptive designs Classification of adaptive designs in drug development Achieving the goals

14 14 Adaptive Designs Working Group What are Adaptive Designs? An adaptive design should be adaptive by "design" not an adhoc change of the trial conduct and analysis Adaptation is a prospective design feature, not a remedy for poor planning An adaptive design should be adaptive by "design" not an adhoc change of the trial conduct and analysis Adaptation is a prospective design feature, not a remedy for poor planning ADAPTIVE Sequential Multi-stage DynamicSelf-designing Flexible Response-driven Novel

15 15 Adaptive Designs Working Group What are Adaptive Designs? Adaptive Plan … not Adaptive Plane

16 16 Adaptive Designs Working Group Definition Adaptive Design uses accumulating data to decide on how to modify aspects of the study without undermining the validity and integrity of the trial Validity means providing correct statistical inference (such as adjusted p- values, unbiased estimates and adjusted confidence intervals, etc) assuring consistency between different stages of the study minimizing operational bias Validity means providing correct statistical inference (such as adjusted p- values, unbiased estimates and adjusted confidence intervals, etc) assuring consistency between different stages of the study minimizing operational bias Integrity means providing convincing results to a broader scientific community preplanning, as much as possible, based on intended adaptations maintaining confidentiality of data Integrity means providing convincing results to a broader scientific community preplanning, as much as possible, based on intended adaptations maintaining confidentiality of data

17 17 Adaptive Designs Working Group An adaptive design requires the trial to be conducted in several stages with access to the accumulated data An adaptive design may have one or more rules: Allocation Rule: how subjects will be allocated to available arms Sampling Rule: how many subjects will be sampled at next stage Stopping Rule: when to stop the trial (for efficacy, harm, futility) Decision Rule: the terminal decision rule and interim decisions pertaining to design change not covered by the previous three rules At any stage, the data may be analyzed and next stages redesigned taking into account all available data General Structure

18 18 Adaptive Designs Working Group Examples Group Sequential Designs: only Stopping Rule Response Adaptive Allocation: only Allocation Rule Sample Size Re-assessment: only Sampling Rule Flexible Designs: Adaptive AR: changing the randomization ratio Adaptive SaR: the timing of the next IA Stopping Rule Adaptive DR: changing the target treatment difference; changing the primary endpoint; varying the form of the primary analysis; modifying the patient population; etc

19 19 Adaptive Designs Working Group Allocation Rules Fixed (static) AR: Randomization used to achieve balance in all prognostic factors at baseline Complete randomization uses equal allocation probabilities Stratification improves the randomization Adaptive (dynamic) AR: Response-adaptive randomization uses interim data to unbalance the allocation probabilities in favor of the better treatment(s): urn models, RPW, doubly adaptive biased coin design Bayesian AR alters the allocation probabilities based on posterior probabilities of each treatment arm being the best

20 20 Adaptive Designs Working Group Sampling Rules Sample size re-estimation (SSR) Restricted sampling rule Blinded SSR or Unblinded SSR based on estimate of nuisance parameter Traditional Group Sequential Designs Fixed sample sizes per stage Error Spending Approach Variable sample sizes per stage (but do not depend on observations) Sequentially Planned Decision Procedures Future stage sample size depends on the current value of test statistic Flexible SSR uses also the estimated treatment effect

21 21 Adaptive Designs Working Group Stopping Rules Early Stopping based on Boundary Crossing Superiority Harm Futility Stochastic Curtailment Conditional power Predictive power Bayesian Stopping Rules Based on posterior probabilities of hypotheses Complemented by making predictions of the possible consequences of continuing

22 22 Adaptive Designs Working Group Decision Rules Changing the test statistics Adaptive scores in trend test or under non proportional hazards Adaptive weight in location-scale test Including a covariate that shows variance reduction Redesigning multiple endpoints Changing their pre-assigned hierarchical order in multiple testing Updating their correlation in reverse multiplicity situation Switching from superiority to non-inferiority Changing the hierarchical order of hypotheses Changing the patient population going forward either with the full population or with a pre- specified subpopulation

23 23 Adaptive Designs Working Group Classification Phase III to launch Lifecycl e Manage -ment Phase II to Commit to Phase III FTIM to Commit to PoC/Phase II Disease selection Target Family selection Candida te selection to FTIM Compound Progression Stages Target to tractable hit to candidat e SINGLE ARM TRIALS Two-stage Designs Screening Designs TWO-ARM TRIALS Group Sequential Designs Information Based Designs Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) MULTI-ARM TRIALS Bayesian Designs Group Sequential Designs Flexible Designs DOSE-FINDING STUDIES Dose-escalation designs Dose-finding designs (Flexible Designs) Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding SEAMLESS DESIGNS Dose-escalation based on efficacy/toxicity Learning/Confirming in Phase II/III

24 24 Adaptive Designs Working Group Two-Stage Designs Objective: single-arm studies using short-term endpoints; hypothesis testing about some minimal acceptable probability of response Gehan design: early stopping for futility; sample size of the 2 nd stage gives a specified precision for response rate Group sequential designs: Fleming (1982), Simon (1989) Adaptive two-stage design: Banerjee&Tsiatis (2006) Bayesian designs: Thall&Simon (1994)

25 25 Adaptive Designs Working Group Screening Designs Objective: adaptive design for the entire screening program Minimize the shortest time to identify the promising compound Subject to the given constraints on type I and type II risks for the entire screening program type I risk = Pr(screening procedures stops with a FP compound) type II risk= Pr(any of the rejected compounds is a FN compound) Two-stage design (Yao&Venkatraman, 1998) Adaptive screening designs (Stout and Hardwick, 2002) Bayesian screening designs (Berry, 2001)

26 26 Adaptive Designs Working Group Classification Phase III to launch Lifecycl e Manage -ment Phase II to Commit to Phase III FTIM to Commit to PoC/Phase II Disease selection Target Family selection Candida te selection to FTIM Compound Progression Stages Target to tractable hit to candidat e SINGLE ARM TRIALS Two-stage Designs Screening Designs TWO-ARM TRIALS Group Sequential Designs Information Based Designs Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) MULTI-ARM TRIALS Bayesian Designs Group Sequential Designs Flexible Designs DOSE-FINDING STUDIES Dose-escalation designs Dose-finding designs (Flexible Designs) Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding SEAMLESS DESIGNS Dose-escalation based on efficacy/toxicity Learning/Confirming in Phase II/III

27 27 Adaptive Designs Working Group Objective: testing two hypotheses with given significance level and power at the prespecified alternative AR: fixed randomization SaR: after each observation StR: boundary crossing (e.g. SPRT, repeated significance test, triangular test) DR: final decision - to accept or reject the null hypothesis References: Siegmund (1985); Jennison&Turnbull (2000) Fully Sequential Designs

28 28 Adaptive Designs Working Group Objective: testing two hypotheses with given significance level and power at the specified alternative, prefixed maximum sample size AR: fixed randomization SaR: after a fixed number (a group) of observations, or using error-spending function, or using Christmas-tree adjustment StR: boundary crossing Haybittle, Pocock, OBrien-Fleming type linear boundaries error-spending families conditional power, stochastic curtailment DR: final decision - to accept or reject the null hypothesis References: Jennison&Turnbull (2000); Whitehead (1997) Group Sequential Designs

29 29 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information Based Designs Objective: testing two hypotheses with given significance level and power at the specified alternative, prefixed maximum information AR: fixed randomization SaR: after fixed increments of information StR: boundary crossing as for Group Sequential Designs DR: adjust maximum sample size based on interim information about nuisance parameters References: Mehta&Tsiatis (2001); East (2005)

30 30 Adaptive Designs Working Group Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) Objective: testing two hypotheses with given significance level and power at the specified alternative or adaptively changing the alternative at which a specified power is to be attained AR: fixed or adaptive randomization SaR: sample size of the next stage depends on results at the time of interim analysis StR: p-value combination, conditional error, variance-spending DR: adapting alternative hypothesis, primary endpoint, test statistics, inserting or skipping IAs References: Bauer; Brannath et al; Müller&Schäfer; Fisher

31 31 Adaptive Designs Working Group Classification Phase III to launch Lifecycl e Manage -ment Phase II to Commit to Phase III FTIM to Commit to PoC/Phase II Disease selection Target Family selection Candida te selection to FTIM Compound Progression Stages Target to tractable hit to candidat e SINGLE ARM TRIALS Two-stage Designs Screening Designs TWO-ARM TRIALS Group Sequential Designs Information Based Designs Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) MULTI-ARM TRIALS Bayesian Designs Group Sequential Designs Flexible Designs DOSE-FINDING STUDIES Dose-escalation designs Dose-finding designs (Flexible Designs) Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding SEAMLESS DESIGNS Dose-escalation based on efficacy/toxicity Learning/Confirming in Phase II/III

32 32 Adaptive Designs Working Group Objective: to use the posterior probabilities of hypotheses of interest as a basis for interim decisions (Proper Bayesian) or to explicitly assess the losses associated with consequences of stopping or continuing the study (Decision-theoretic Bayesian) AR: equal randomization or play-the-winner (next patient is allocated to the currently superior treatment) or bandit designs (minimizing the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment) SaR: not specified StR: not formally pre-specified stopping criterion, or using a skeptical prior for stopping for efficacy and an enthusiastic prior for stopping for futility, or using backwards induction DR: update the posterior distribution; formal incorporation of external evidence; inference not affected by the number and timing of IAs References: Berry (2001, 2004); Berry et al. (2001); Spiegelhalter et al. (2004). Bayesian Designs

33 33 Adaptive Designs Working Group Pairwise comparisons with GSD Objective: compare multiple treatments with a control; focus on type I error rate rather than power A simple Bonferroni approximation is only slightly conservative Treatments may be dropped in the course of the trial if they are significantly inferior to others Step-down procedures allow critical values for remaining comparisons to be reduced after some treatments have been discarded References: Follmann et al (1994)

34 34 Adaptive Designs Working Group p-value combination tests Objective: compare multiple treatments with a control in a two-stage design allowing integration of data from both stages in a confirmatory trial Focus: control of multiple (familywise) Type I error level Great flexibility: General distributional assumptions for the endpoints General stopping rules and selection criteria Early termination of the trial Early elimination of treatments due to lack of efficacy or to safety issues or for ethical/economic reasons References: Bauer&Kieser (1994); Liu&Pledger (2005)

35 35 Adaptive Designs Working Group Classification Phase III to launch Lifecycl e Manage -ment Phase II to Commit to Phase III FTIM to Commit to PoC/Phase II Disease selection Target Family selection Candida te selection to FTIM Compound Progression Stages Target to tractable hit to candidat e SINGLE ARM TRIALS Two-stage Designs Screening Designs TWO-ARM TRIALS Group Sequential Designs Information Based Designs Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) MULTI-ARM TRIALS Bayesian Designs Group Sequential Designs Flexible Designs DOSE-FINDING STUDIES Dose-escalation designs Dose-finding designs (Flexible Designs) Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding SEAMLESS DESIGNS Dose-escalation based on efficacy/toxicity Learning/Confirming in Phase II/III

36 36 Adaptive Designs Working Group Objective: target the MTD (Phase I) or the best safe dose (Phase I/II) or find the therapeutic window AR: non-parametric (3+3 rule, up-and-down) or model-based (Continual Reassessment Methods) or Escalation With Overdose Control (EWOC) or Bayesian Decision Design or Bayesian Optimal Design or Penalized Adaptive D-optimal Design SaR: cohorts of fixed size or in two stages (Storer design) StR: no early stopping or stopping by design (e.g. 3+3 rule) DR: update model parameters (for model-based AR) References: OQuigley et al.; Babb et al.; Edler; OQuigley Dose-escalation designs

37 37 Adaptive Designs Working Group Objective: find the optimal dose; working model for the dose-response; dose sequence identified in advance AR: Bayesian (based on predictive probabilities: smallest average posterior variance) or frequentist (based on optimal experimental design: maximum information per cost) SaR: cohorts of fixed size or after each observation StR: stopping for futility or when the optimal dose for confirmatory stage is sufficiently well known (estimation!) DR: update model parameters, Bayesian predictions of long- term endpoint using a longitudinal model References: Berry et al. (2001); Dragalin&Fedorov; Fedorov&Leonov Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding

38 38 Adaptive Designs Working Group Adaptive Dose-finding (Flexible Designs) Objective: establishing a dose-response relationship or combining Phase II/III using p-value combination tests AR: drop or add doses SaR: sample size reassessment for the next stage StR: early stopping for futility or early termination of some inferior doses DR: adapting hypotheses, primary endpoint, test statistics, inserting or skipping IAs References: Bauer&Kohne; Lehmacher et al

39 39 Adaptive Designs Working Group Classification Phase III to launch Lifecycl e Manage -ment Phase II to Commit to Phase III FTIM to Commit to PoC/Phase II Disease selection Target Family selection Candida te selection to FTIM Compound Progression Stages Target to tractable hit to candidat e SINGLE ARM TRIALS Two-stage Designs Screening Designs TWO-ARM TRIALS Group Sequential Designs Information Based Designs Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) MULTI-ARM TRIALS Bayesian Designs Group Sequential Designs Flexible Designs DOSE-FINDING STUDIES Dose-escalation designs Dose-finding designs (Flexible Designs) Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding SEAMLESS DESIGNS Dose-escalation based on efficacy/toxicity Learning/Confirming in Phase II/III

40 40 Adaptive Designs Working Group Seamless Designs Two-stage adaptive designs 1 st Stage: treatment (dose) selection – learning 2 nd Stage: comparison with control – confirming Treatment selection may be based on a short-term endpoint (surrogate), while confirmation stage uses a long-term (clinical) endpoint 2 nd Stage data and the relevant groups from 1 st Stage data are combined in a way that Guarantees the Type I error rate for the comparison with control Produces efficient unbiased estimates and confidence intervals with correct coverage probability

41 41 Adaptive Designs Working Group Selection and testing Objective: to select the best treatment in the 1 st stage and proceed to the 2 nd stage to compare with control Focus: overall type I error rate is maintained (TSE) trial power is also achieved (ST) selection is based on surrogate (or short-term) endpoint (TS) Method includes: early termination of the whole trial early elimination of inferior treatments References: Thall,Simon&Ellenberg; Stallard&Todd; Todd&Stallard

42 42 Adaptive Designs Working Group Bayesian model-based designs Objective: adaptive dose ranging within a confirmatory trial Focus: efficient learning, effective treatment of patients in the trial Method includes: AR: to maximize information about dose response SaR: Frequent analysis of the data as it accumulates Seamless switch to confirmatory stage without stopping enrollment in a double-blind fashion Use of longitudinal model for prediction of the clinical endpoint References: Berry et al; Inoue et al

43 43 Adaptive Designs Working Group Classification Phase III to launch Lifecycl e Manage -ment Phase II to Commit to Phase III FTIM to Commit to PoC/Phase II Disease selection Target Family selection Candida te selection to FTIM Compound Progression Stages Target to tractable hit to candidat e SINGLE ARM TRIALS Two-stage Designs Screening Designs TWO-ARM TRIALS Group Sequential Designs Information Based Designs Adaptive GSD (Flexible Designs) MULTI-ARM TRIALS Bayesian Designs Group Sequential Designs Flexible Designs DOSE-FINDING STUDIES Dose-escalation designs Dose-finding designs (Flexible Designs) Adaptive Model-based Dose-finding SEAMLESS DESIGNS Dose-escalation based on efficacy/toxicity Learning/Confirming in Phase II/III

44 44 Adaptive Designs Working Group The objective of a clinical trial may be either to target the MTD or MED or to find the therapeutic range or to determine the OSD (Optimal Safe Dose) to be recommended for confirmation or to confirm efficacy over control in Phase III clinical trial This clinical goal is usually determined by the clinicians from the pharmaceutical industry practicing physicians key opinion leaders in the field, and the regulatory agency Achieving the goals

45 45 Adaptive Designs Working Group Achieving the goals Once agreement has been reached on the objective, it is the statistician's responsibility to provide the appropriate design and statistical inferential structure required to achieve that goal

46 46 Adaptive Designs Working Group Achieving the goals There are plenty of available designs on statisticians shelf The greatest challenge is their implementation Adaptive designs have much more to offer than the rigid conventional parallel group designs in clinical trials

47 47 Adaptive Designs Working Group References Babb J, Rogatko A, Zacks S. (1998). Cancer phase I clinical trials: efficient dose escalation with overdose control. Stat. Med., 17, 1103-1120. Bauer P. Statistical methodology relevant to the overall drug development program. Drug Inf J. 2003;37: 81-89. Bauer P, Kieser M. Combining different phases in the development of medical treatments within a single trial. Statistics in Medicine 1999;18: 1833-1848. Bauer P, Köhne K. Evaluation of experiments with adaptive interim analyses. Biometrics 1994;50: 1029-1041. Bauer P, Röhmel J. An adaptive method for establishing a dose-response relationship. Statistics in Medicine 1995;14: 1595-1607. Berry D. Adaptive trials and Bayesian statistics in drug development. Biopharmaceutical Report 2001; 9:1-11. (with comments). Berry D. Bayesian statistics and the efficiency and ethics of clinical trials. Statistical Science 2004; 19:175-187. Berry D., Mueller P., Grieve A.P., Smith M., Parke T., Blazek R. Mitchard N., Krams M. Adaptive Bayesian designs for dose-ranging drug trials. 2002; 162:99-181. In. Gatsonis C, Carlin B, Carriquiry A (Eds) "Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics V", New-York: Springer. Brannath W, Posch M, Bauer P. Recursive combination tests. JASA 2002;97: 236-244. Dragalin V, Fedorov V. Adaptive model-based designs for dose-finding studies. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 2006; 136:1800-1823. East. Software for the design and interim monitoring of group sequential clinical trials, 2005. Cytel Software Corporation. Edler L. Overview of Phase I Trials. 2001:1-34. In J. Crowley (Ed) Handbook of Statistics in Clinical Oncology. Marcel Dekker, NY Fedorov V, Leonov S. Response driven designs in drug development. 2005, In: Wong, W.K., Berger, M. (eds.), "Applied Optimal Designs", Wiley. Follman DA, Proschan MA, Geller NL. Monitoring pairwise comparisons in multi-armed clinical trials. Biometrics 1994; 50: 325-336. Gould L. Sample-size re-estimation: recent developments and practical considerations. Statistics in Medicine 2001; 20:2625-2643.

48 48 Adaptive Designs Working Group References Inoue LYT, Thall PF, Berry D. Seamlessly expanding a randomized Phase II trial to Phase III. Biometrics. 2002; 58: 823-831. Jennison C, Turnbull BW. Group Sequential Methods with Applications to Clinical Trials. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, London, New York, Washington, D.C., 2000. Lehmacher W, Kieser M, Hothorn L. Sequential and multiple testing for dose-response analysis. Drug Inf. J. 2000;34: 591-597. Liu Q, Pledger GW. Phase 2 and 3 combination designs to accelerate drug development. JASA 2005; 100:493-502 Mehta CR, Tsiatis AS. Flexible sample size considerations using information based interim monitoring. Drug Inf. J. 2001;35: 1095-1112. Müller HH, Schäfer H. Adaptive group sequential designs for clinical trials: Combining the advantages of adaptive and of classical group sequential approaches. Biometrics 2001; 57: 886-891. O'Quigley J, Pepe M, Fisher L. (1990). Continual reassessment method: a practical design for phase I clinical trials in cancer. Biometrics 46: 3348 O'Quigley J. Dose-finding designs using continual reassessment method. 2001:35-72. In J. Crowley (Ed)Handbook of Statistics in Clinical Oncology. Marcel Dekker, NY Proschan M. Two-stage sample size re-estimation based on nuisance parameter: a review. JBS 2005; 15: 559-574 Thall PF, Simon R, Ellenberg S. A two-stage design for choosing among several experimental treatments and a control in clinical trials. Biometrics 1989; 45: 537-547. Todd S, Stallard N. A new clinical trial design combining Phase 2 and 3: sequential designs with treatment selection and a change of endpoint. Drug Inf J. 2005; 39:109-118. Rosenberger W.F, Lachin J.M. Randomization in Clinical Trials: Theory and Practice. 2002, Wiley Schwartz TA, Denne JS. Common threads between sample size recalculation and group sequential procedures. Pharmaceut. Statist. 2003; 2: 263-271. Siegmund D. Sequential Analysis. Tests and Confidence Intervals. Springer, New York, 1985. Spiegelhalter D.J., Abrams K.R., Myles J.P. Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation. Wiley, 2004. Whitehead J. The Design and Analysis of Sequential Clinical Trials. 2nd ed. Wiley, New York, 1997.

49 49 Adaptive Designs Working Group

50 September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Seamless Designs for Phase IIb/III Clinical Trials Jeff Maca, Ph.D. Assoc. Director, Biostatistics Novartis Pharmaceuticals

51 51 Adaptive Designs Working Group Primary PhRMA references PhRMA White Paper sections: Maca J, Bhattacharya S, Dragalin V, Gallo P, and Krams M. Adaptive Seamless Phase II/III Designs – Background, Operational Aspects, and Examples. Drug Information Journal. 2006; 40(4): 463-473. Gallo P. Confidentiality and trial integrity issues for adaptive designs. Drug Information Journal. 2006; 40(4): 445-450.

52 52 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Introduction and motivation of adaptive seamless designs (ASD) Statistical methodology for seamless designs Considerations for adaptive design implementation Simulations and comparisons of statistical methods

53 53 Adaptive Designs Working Group Introduction and Motivation Reducing time to market is/has/will be a top priority in pharmaceutical development Brings valuable medicines to patients sooner Increases the value of the drug to the parent company Adaptive seamless designs can help reduce this development time

54 54 Adaptive Designs Working Group Definitions Seamless design A clinical trial design which combines into a single trial objectives which are traditionally addressed in separate trials Adaptive Seamless design A seamless trial in which the final analysis will use data from patients enrolled before and after the adaptation (inferentially seamless)

55 55 Adaptive Designs Working Group Adaptive Seamless Designs Primary objective – combine dose selection and confirmation into one trial Although dose is most common phase IIb objective, other choices could be made, e.g. population After dose selection, only change is to new enrollments (patients are generally not re-randomized) Patients on terminated treatment groups could be followed All data from the chosen group and comparator is used in the final analysis. Appropriate statistical methods must be used

56 56 Adaptive Designs Working Group Adaptive Seamless Designs DoseA Dose B Dose C Placebo DoseA Dose B Dose C Placebo Phase II Phase III Stage A (learning) Phase B (confirming) Time

57 57 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical methodology Statistical methodology for Adaptive Seamless Designs must account for potential biases and statistical issues Selection bias (multiplicity) Multiple looks at the data (interim analysis) Combination of data from independent stages

58 58 Adaptive Designs Working Group Simple Bonferonni adjustment Test final hypothesis at α / ntrt Accounts for selection bias: multiplicity adjustment Multiple looks at the data: not considered Combination of data from stages by simple pooling In some sense, ignores that there was an interim analysis at all Most conservative approach, simple to implement No other adjustments (i.e., sample size) can be made Statistical methodology - Bonferronni

59 59 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Closed Testing And alternative and more powerful approach is a closed testing approach, and combination of p-values with inverse normal method Methodology combines: Closed testing of hypothesis Simes adjustment of p-values for multiplicity Combines data (p-values) from stages via the inverse normal method (or Fishers combination)

60 60 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Closed Testing Closed test procedure n null hypotheses H 1, …, H n Closed test procedure considers all intersection hypotheses. H i is rejected at global level α if all hypotheses H I formed by intersection with H i are rejected at local level α H 1 can only be rejected at α=.05 if H 12 is also rejected at α=.05

61 61 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Closed Testing A typical study with 3 doses 3 pairwise hypotheses. Multiplicity can be handled by adjusting p-values from each stage using Simes procedure S is number of elements in Hypothesis, p(i) is the ordered P-values

62 62 Adaptive Designs Working Group Inverse Normal Method If p 1 and p 2 are generated from independent data, then will yield a Z test statistic Note: For adaptive designs, typical value for t 0 is n 1 / (n 1 +n 2 ) Statistical Methodology – Closed Testing

63 63 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Example Example: Dose finding with 3 doses + control Stage sample sizes: n 1 = 75, n 2 =75 Unadjusted pairwise p-values from the first stage: p 1,1 = 0.23, p 1,2 = 0.18, p 1,3 = 0.08 Dose 3 selected at interim Unadjusted p-value from second stage: p 2,3 =.01

64 64 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Example Three-way test: q 1,123 = min( 3*.08, 1.5*.18, 1*. 23)=.23 q 2,123 = p 2,3 =.01 C(q 1,123, q 2,123 ) = 2.17 P.value =.015

65 65 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Example Two -way tests: q 1,13 = min( 2*.08, 1*. 23)=.16 q 1,23 = min(2*.08,1*.18) =.16 q 2,13 = q 2,23 = p 2,3 =.01 C(q 1,13, q 2,13 ) = C(q 1,23, q 2,23 ) = 2.35 P.value =.0094

66 66 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Example Final test: q 1,3 = p 1,3 =.08 q 2,3 = p 2,3 =.01 C(q 1,13, q 2,13 ) = C(q 1,23, q 2,23 ) = 2.64 P.value =.0042 Conclusion: Dose 3 is effective

67 67 Adaptive Designs Working Group Choosing sample sizes There are two sample sizes to consider for a seamless design, n 1, n 2 If t is the number of treatments, the total same size N is: N = t*n 1 + 2*n 2 The larger n 1, the better job of choosing the right dose. However, this makes the total much larger. Power can be determined by simulation, and is also a function of the (unknown) dose response Statistical Methodology – Sample sizes

68 68 Adaptive Designs Working Group Simulation for power comparison To compare the two methods for analyzing an adaptive seamless designs, the following parameters where used: Sample sizes were n1= n2 = 75 Primary endpoint is normal, with σ = 12 One dose was selected for continuation Various dose responses were assumed 20,000 reps used for simulations (error = ±.5%) Statistical Methodology – Power

69 69 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Power Simulation for power comparison Selecting 1 treatment group from 2 possible treatments Dose Response (Δ placebo ) Power BonferronniPower Closed Test 0, 4.583.1%83.2% 4.5, 4.591.0%92.2%

70 70 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Methodology – Power Simulation for power comparison Selecting 1 treatment group from 3 possible treatments Dose Response (Δ placebo ) Power Bonferronni Power Closed Test 0,0, 4.579.4%78.9% 4.5, 4.5, 4.590.8%92.7%

71 71 Adaptive Designs Working Group Considerations for Seamless Designs With the added flexibility of seamless designs, comes added complexity. Careful consideration should be given to the feasibility for a seamless design for the project. Not all projects can use seamless development Even if two programs can use seamless development, one might be better suited than the other Many characteristics add or subtract to the feasibility

72 72 Adaptive Designs Working Group Considerations for Seamless Designs Enrollment vs. Endpoint The length of time needed to make a decision relative to the time of enrollment must be small Otherwise enrollment must be paused Endpoint must be well known and accepted If the goal of Phase II is to determine the endpoint for registration, seamless development would be difficult If surrogate marker will be used for dose selection, it must be accepted, validated and well understood

73 73 Adaptive Designs Working Group Considerations for Seamless Designs Clinical Development Time There will usually be two pivotal trials for registration Entire program must be completed in shorter timelines, not just the adaptive trial

74 74 Adaptive Designs Working Group Considerations for Seamless Designs Logistical considerations Helpful if final product is available for adaptive trial (otherwise bioequivalence study is needed) Decision process, and personnel must be carefully planned and pre-specified

75 75 Adaptive Designs Working Group Considerations for Seamless Designs Novel drug or indication Decision process which will be overly complicated could be an issue with an external board If there are a lot of unknown issues with the indication or drug, a separate phase II trial would be better However, getting a novel drug to patients sooner increases the benefit of seamless development

76 76 Adaptive Designs Working Group Conclusions Adaptive seamless designs have an ability to improve the development process by reducing timelines for approval Statistical methods are available to account for adaptive trial designs Extra planning is necessary to implement an adaptive seamless design protocol Benefits should be carefully weighed against the challenges of such designs before implementation

77 77 Adaptive Designs Working Group References Dragalin V. Adaptive designs: terminology and classification. Drug Inf J. 2006 (to appear). Quinlan JA, Krams M. Implementing adaptive designs: logistical and operational considerations. Drug Inf J. 2006 (to appear). Bechhofer RE, Kiefer J, Sobel M. Sequential Identification and Ranking Problems. Chicago: University of Chicago Press;1968. Paulson E. A selection procedure for selecting the population with the largest mean from k normal populations. Ann Math Stat. 1964;35:174-180. Thall PF, Simon R, Ellenberg SS. A two-stage design for choosing among several experimental treatments and a control in clinical trials. Biometrics 1989;45:537-547. Schaid DJ, Wieand S, Therneau TM. Optimal two stage screening designs for survival comparisons. Biometrika 1990;77:659-663. Stallard N, Todd S. Sequential designs for phase III clinical trials incorporating treatment selection. Stat Med. 2003;22:689-703. Follman DA, Proschan MA, Geller NL. Monitoring pairwise comparisons in multi- armed clinical trials. Biometrics 1994;50:325-336. Hellmich M. Monitoring clinical trials with multiple arms. Biometrics 2001;57:892- 898.

78 78 Adaptive Designs Working Group References Bischoff W, Miller F. Adaptive two-stage test procedures to find the best treatment in clinical trials. Biometrika 2005;92:197-212. Todd S, Stallard N. A new clinical trial design combining Phases 2 and 3: sequential designs with treatment selection and a change of endpoint. Drug Inf J. 2005;39:109- 118. Bauer P, Köhne K. Evaluation of experiments with adaptive interim analyses. Biometrics 1994;50:1029-1041. Bauer P, Kieser M. Combining different phases in the development of medical treatments within a single trial. Stat Med. 1999;18:1833-1848. Brannath W, Posch M, Bauer P. Recursive combination tests. J Am Stat Assoc. 2002;97:236-244. Müller HH, Schäfer H. Adaptive group sequential designs for clinical trials: combining the advantages of adaptive and classical group sequential approaches. Biometrics 2001;57:886-819. Liu Q, Pledger GW. Phase 2 and 3 combination designs to accelerate drug development. J Am Stat Assoc. 2005;100:493-502. Posch M, Koenig F, Brannath W, Dunger-Baldauf C, Bauer P. Testing and estimation in flexible group sequential designs with adaptive treatment selection. Stat Med. 2005;24:3697-3714. Bauer P, Einfalt J. Application of adaptive designs – a review. Biometrical J. 2006;48:1:14.

79 79 Adaptive Designs Working Group References Inoue LYT, Thall PF, Berry DA. Seamlessly expanding a randomized phase II trial to phase III. Biometrics 2002;58:823-831. Berry, DA, Müller P, Grieve AP, Smith M, Parke T, Blazek R, Mitchard N, Krams M. Adaptive Bayesian designs for dose-ranging drug trials. In Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics V. Lecture Notes in Statist. Springer: New York;2002;162:99-181. Coburger S, Wassmer G. Sample size reassessment in adaptive clinical trials using a bias corrected estimate. Biometrical J. 2003;45:812-825. Brannath W, König F, Bauer P. Improved repeated confidence bounds in trials with a maximal goal. Biometrical J. 2003;45:311-324. Sampson AR, Sill MW. Drop-the-losers design: normal case. Biometrical J. 2005;47:257-281. Stallard N, Todd S. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plan. Inference 2005;135:402-419. US Food and Drug Administration. Guidance for Clinical Trial Sponsors. Establishment and Operation of Clinical Trial Data Monitoring Committees. 2006; Rockville MD: FDA. http://www.fda.gov/cber/qdlns/clintrialdmc.htm.http://www.fda.gov/cber/qdlns/clintrialdmc.htm US Food and Drug Administration. Challenge and Opportunity on the Critical Path to New Medicinal Products. 2006. http://www.fda.gov/oc/initiatives/criticalpath/whitepaper.html.

80 80 Adaptive Designs Working Group

81 September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Designs Sample size re-estimation: A review and recommendations Keaven M. Anderson Clinical Biostatistics and Research Decision Sciences Merck Research Laboratories

82 82 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Introduction/background Methods Fully sequential and group sequential designs Adaptive sample size re-estimation Background Nuisance parameter estimation/internal pilot studies Blinded sample size re-estimation Unblinded sample size re-estimation Conditional power and related methods Discussion and recommendations Case studies References

83 83 Adaptive Designs Working Group Background Origin PhRMA Adaptive Design Working Group Chuang-Stein C, Anderson K, Gallo P and Collins S, Sample size re-estimation: a review and recommendations. Drug Information Journal, 2006; 40(4):475-484 Focus Late-stage (Phase III, IV) sample size re-estimation Frequentist methods Control of Type I error Potential for bias is critical in these confirmatory trials Implications for logistical issues

84 84 Adaptive Designs Working Group Adaptive designs allow design specifications to be changed based on accumulating data (and/or information external to the trial) Extensive literature exists on adapting through sample size re-estimation, the topic of this talk Since sample size in group sequential and fully sequential trials are data-dependent, we consider these to be included in a broad definition of adaptive design/sample size re-estimation Introduction

85 85 Adaptive Designs Working Group Introduction Why consider sample size re-estimation? Minimize number of patients exposed to inferior or highly toxic treatment Right-size the trial to demonstrate efficacy Reduce or increase sample size Stop the trial for futility if insufficient benefit Incorporate new internal or external information into a trial design during the course of the trial

86 86 Adaptive Designs Working Group Introduction Reasons for Unplanned Adaptation Information that could not have been anticipated prior to trial start has become available. Regulators change the primary efficacy endpoint from mean change in viral load to % of patients with viral load below the detectable limit in HIV patients. Regulators decide that the new treatment needs to win on more than the one efficacy endpoint used to size the trial Adaptation, not planned at the design stage, is used to possibly to bail out a trial A competing therapy removed from market, allowing a lesser treatment benefit to be viable. Sponsor changes mind about minimal treatment effect of interest This topic will receive minimal discussion here

87 87 Adaptive Designs Working Group In order to appropriately power a trial, you need to know: The true effect size you wish to detect Nuisance parameters such as Variability of a continuous endpoint Population event rate for a binary outcome or time to event Other ancillary information (e.g., correlation between co- primary endpoints needed to evaluate study-level power) Inappropriate assumptions about any of these factors can lead to an underpowered trial The Problem

88 88 Adaptive Designs Working Group Consequences of incorrect planning for treatment difference and/or standard deviation ( =0.05, planned Power=90%) N planned/ N required Power Over-estimate or under-estimate by 50% 0.4458% Under-estimate or over-estimate by 50% 2.2599.8% Over-estimate AND under-estimate by 50% 0.2030% Under-estimate AND over-estimate by 50% 5.06>99.9% Under-estimate AND under-estimate by 50% 190%

89 89 Adaptive Designs Working Group Plan a fixed trial conservatively Pro: trial should be well-powered Cons: Can lead to lengthy, over-powered, expensive trial Use group sequential design and plan conservatively Pro: can power trial well and stop at appropriate, early interim analysis if your assumptions are too conservative Con: over-enrollment occurs past definitive interim analysis because it takes time to collect, clean and analyze data Use adaptive design Pro: can decide to alter trial size based on partial data or new, external information Cons: methods used to adapt must be carefully chosen, regulatory scrutiny over methods and partial unblinding, may not improve efficiency over group sequential design Solutions to the problem

90 90 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Introduction/background Methods Fully sequential and group sequential designs Adaptive sample size re-estimation Background Nuisance parameter estimation/internal pilot studies Blinded sample size re-estimation Unblinded sample size re-estimation Conditional power and related methods Discussion and recommendations Case studies References

91 91 Adaptive Designs Working Group Fully sequential design Not commonly used due to continuous monitoring May be useful to continuously monitor a rare serious adverse effect Intracranial hemorrhage in a thrombolytic/anti-platelet trial Intussusception in rotavirus vaccine trial Unblinded analysis suggests need for an independent monitor or monitoring committee References Wald (1947), Sequential Analysis Sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) Siegmund (1985), Sequential Analysis: Tests and Confidence Intervals

92 92 Adaptive Designs Working Group Group sequential design Classic Fixed sample sizes for interim and final analyses Pre-defined cutoffs for superiority and futility/inferiority at each analysis Trial stops (adapts) if sufficient evidence available to decide early Independent data monitoring committee often used to review unblinded interim analyses Variations Adjustment of interim analysis times (spending functions) Adjustment of total sample size or follow-up based on, for example, number of events (information-based designs) Properties well understood and design is generally well-accepted by regulators See: Jennison and Turnbull (2000): Group Sequential Methods with Applications to Clinical Trials

93 93 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Introduction/background Methods Fully sequential and group sequential designs Adaptive sample size re-estimation Background Nuisance parameter estimation/internal pilot studies Blinded sample size re-estimation Unblinded sample size re-estimation Conditional power and related methods Discussion and recommendations Case studies Evolving issues

94 94 Adaptive Designs Working Group The Opportunity Size the study appropriately to reach study objectives in an efficient manner based on interim data that offers more accurate information on Nuisance parameter Within-group variability (continuous data) Event rate for the control group (binary data) # of subjects and amount of exposure needed to capture adequate occurrences of time-to-event endpoint Treatment effect Other ancillary information (e.g., correlation between co- primary endpoints needed to evaluate study-level power) Ensure that we will have collected enough exposure data for safety evaluation by the end of the study

95 95 Adaptive Designs Working Group SSR Strategies Update sample size to ensure power as desired based on interim results Internal pilot studies: Adjust for nuisance parameter estimates only Blinded estimation Unblinded estimation Testing strategy: no adjustment from usual test statistics Adjusting for interim test statistic/treatment effect All methods adjust based on unblinded treatment difference Adjust sample size to retain power based on interim test statistic Assume observed treatment effect at interim Assume original treatment effect Testing strategy: adjust stage 2 critical value based on interim test statistic

96 96 Adaptive Designs Working Group SSR - Issues Planned vs Unplanned (at the design stage) Control of Type I error rate and power If we have a choice, do we do it blinded or unblinded? If we do it unblinded, how do we maintain confidentiality? Who will know the exact SSR rule? Who will do it, a third party? Who will make the recommendation, a DMC? How will the results be shared? Who will know the results, the sponsors, investigators? When is a good time to do SSR? Regulatory acceptance

97 97 Adaptive Designs Working Group SSR reviews These all concern what might be considered internal pilot studies Friede and Kieser, Statistics in Medicine, 2001; 20:3861-73 Also Biometrical Journal, 2006; 48:537-555 Gould, Statistics in Medicine, 2001; 20:2625-43 Jennison and Turnbull, 2000, Chapter 14 Zucker, Wittes, Schabenberger, Brittain, 1999; Statistics in Medicine, 18:3493-3509

98 98 Adaptive Designs Working Group Blinded SSR When SSR is based on nuisance parameters Overall variability (continuous data) Overall rate (binary data) Advantage No need to break the blind. In-house personnel can do it. Minimal implication for Type I error rate. Disadvantage The estimate of the nuisance parameter could be wrong, leading to incorrect readjustment.

99 99 Adaptive Designs Working Group Blinded SSR Internal pilot studies to estimate nuisance parameter without adjustment of final test statistic/critical value Gould and Shih (1992) Uses EM algorithm to estimate individual group means or event rates Estimates variance (continuous case) Updates estimate of sample size required for adequate power Software: Wang, 1999 Friede and Kieser (2001) Assume treatment difference known (no EM algorithm required) Adjust within group sum of squares using this constant Type I error and power appear good Some controversy over appropriateness of EM (Friede and Kieser, 2002?; Gould and Shih, 2005?) Question to ask: How well will this work if treatment effect is different than you have assumed for the EM procedure? Will it be under- or over-powered? Group sequential version (Gould and Shih, 1998) may bail you out of this

100 100 Adaptive Designs Working Group Blinded SSR gone wrong? 90% power, 2-sided Type I error 5% 20% vs. 12%: N=436 17.8% vs. 14.2% n=1346

101 101 Adaptive Designs Working Group Unblinded SSR Advantage Could provide more accurate sample-size estimate. Disadvantages Re-estimate sample size in a continuous fashion can reveal interim difference. There could be concerns over bias resulting from knowledge of interim observed treatment effect. Typically require an external group to conduct SSR for registration trials. Interim treatment differences can be misleading Due to random variation or If trial conditions change

102 102 Adaptive Designs Working Group Internal Pilot Design: Continuous Data Adjusts sample size using only nuisance parameter estimate Question to ask: does updated sample size reveal observed treatment effect? Use some fraction of the planned observations to estimate error variance for continuous data, modify final sample size, allow observations used to estimate the variance in the final analysis. Plug the new estimate into the SS formula and obtain a new SS. If the SS re-estimation involves at least 40 patients per group, simulations have shown (Wittes et al, SIM 1999,18:3481-3491; Zucker et al, SIM 1999,18:3493-3509) The type I error rate of the unadjusted (naïve) test is at about the desirable level If we do not allow SS to go down The unadjusted test could lead to non-trivial bias in the type I error rate If we allow the SS to go down Power OK Coffey and Muller (Biometrics, 2001, 57:625-631) investigated ways to control the type I error rate (including different ways to do SSR). Denne and Jennison, (Biometrika, 1999) provide a group sequential version

103 103 Adaptive Designs Working Group Internal pilot design: binary data See, e.g., Herson and Wittes (1993), Jennison and Turnbull (2000) Estimate control group event rate at interim Type I error OK if interim n large enough Options (see Jennison and Turnbull, 2000 for power study) Assume p 1 -p 2 fixed Power appears OK Assume p 1 /p 2 fixed Can be underpowered

104 104 Adaptive Designs Working Group Combination tests Methods for controlling Type I error The invariance principle – calculate separate standardized test statistics from different stages and combine them in a predefined way to make decisions. Weighting of a stage does not increase if sample size for that stage is increased, meaning that individual observations for that stage are down-weighted in the final test statistic Efficiency issue (Tsiatis and Mehta, 2003) Many methods available, including Fishers combination test (Bauer, 1989) Conditional error functions (Proschan and Hunsberger, 1995; Liu and Chi, 2001) Inverse normal method (Lehmacher and Wassmer, 1999) Variance spending (Fisher, 1998)

105 105 Adaptive Designs Working Group Combination tests Apply combination test method to determine the critical value for the second stage based on the observed data from the first stage. Make assumption on treatment effect; options include: Observed effect (highly variable) External estimate Original treatment effect used for sample size planning Compute next stage sample size based on critical value, set conditional power to originally desired power given interim test statistic and assumed second stage treatment effect Generally, will only raise sample size – not lower

106 106 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Introduction/background Methods Fully sequential and group sequential designs Adaptive sample size re-estimation Background Nuisance parameter estimation/internal pilot studies Blinded sample size re-estimation Unblinded sample size re-estimation Conditional power and related methods Discussion and recommendations Case studies References

107 107 Adaptive Designs Working Group Blinded vs Unblinded SSR For SSR due to improved estimate on variance (continuous data), Friede and Kieser (Stat in Med, 2001) conclude that there is not much gain in conducting SSR unblinded. They only studied a constant treatment effect Statistical approaches to control Type I error rate particularly important when adjusting sample size to power for observed treatment difference Decisions related to SSR because of inaccurate assumption on the nuisance parameters can differ significantly from those due to inaccurate assumption on the treatment effect.

108 108 Adaptive Designs Working Group Relative efficiency of SSR methods Internal estimates of treatment effect lead to very inefficient trials (Jennison and Turnbull, 2003) due to the variability of the estimates. External or pre-determined minimal treatment effect assumptions can yield comparable efficiency to group sequential (Liu and Chi, 2001, Anderson et. al, 2004) Adding in a maximum sample size adjustment limit can improve over group sequential (Posch et al, 2003) Based on comparison of optimal group sequential and adaptive designs, improvement of adaptive designs over group sequential is minimal (Jennison and Turnbull, SIM 2006; see also Anderson, 2006) Use of sufficient statistic design rather than weighted combination test improves efficiency (Lokhnygina, 2004)

109 109 Adaptive Designs Working Group Group Sequential vs SSR Debate Efficiency The adaptive designs for SSR using combination tests with fixed weights are generally inefficient. Efficient adaptive designs for SSR have little to offer over efficient group sequential designs in terms of sample size. However, the latter might require more interim analyses and offer minimum gain. In addition, the comparisons were made as if we knew the truth. Flexibility and upfront resource commitment SSR offers flexibility and reduces upfront resource commitment. The flip side is the need to renegotiate budget and request additional drug supply when an increase in SS is necessary. SSR addresses uncertainty at the design stage.

110 110 Adaptive Designs Working Group Group Sequential vs SSR Debate SSR is fluid and can respond to changing environment both in terms of medical care and the primary endpoint to assess treatment effect. The above is important for trials lasting 3-5 years when environmental changes are expected. Need to ascertain treatment effect in major subgroups even though the subgroups are not the primary analysis populations Xigris for disease severity groups Cozaar for race groups

111 111 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #1 Before considering adaptive sample-size re-estimation, evaluate whether or not group sequential design is adequate Pros: Regulatory acceptance Well-understood methods allow substantial flexibility Experienced monitoring committee members available Cons: May not work well in some situations when trial cannot be stopped promptly (long follow-up, slow data collection, cleaning or analysis)

112 112 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #2 Anticipate as much as possible at the planning stage the need to do SSR to incorporate information that will accumulate during the trial Treatment effect size Nuisance parameters The effect of environmental changes on the design assumptions Do not use SSR to Avoid up-front decisions about planning As a bait-and-switch technique where a low initial budget can be presented with a later upward sample size adjustment.

113 113 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #3 For SSR based on variance, consider using blinded SSR However, when there is much uncertainty about the treatment effect, consider using unblinded SSR. For a binary outcome, one can either do blinded SSR based on the overall event rate or an unblinded SSR based on the event rate of the control group. There is no clear preference, choice dependant on several factors. If there is much uncertainty about treatment effect, unblinded SSR using conditional power methods (see next slides). If SSR is blinded, consider conducting interim analysis to capture higher than expected treatment effect early.

114 114 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #4 To help maintain confidentiality of the interim results, we recommend Do not reveal exact method for adjusting sample size. Make the outcome of SSR discrete with only 2-3 options. Under the first approach, details on SSR methodology will not be described in the protocol, but documented in a stand-alone statistical analysis plan for SSR not available to study personnel. For SSR based on observed treat effect (continuous case), it will be beneficial to base SSR on both variability and effect. We recommend that the protocol include the maximum sample size allowed to minimize the need to go back to the IRB.

115 115 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #5 For unblinded SSR Invite a third party to do the calculations following a pre- specified rule. If possible, combine SSR with a group sequential design where SSR will be conducted at the same time with an interim analysis. Convene a DMC (or preferably an IDMC) to review the SSR recommendation from the third party. If an IDMC is used, the IDMC statistician can carry out the SSR. Assuming Recommendation #4 is followed, the new sample size will be communicated to the sponsor. The investigators will be told to continue enrollment.

116 116 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #6 Carefully consider the number of times to do SSR. E.g., for variance estimation, is once enough? Timing of the SSR should be based on multiple considerations such as available info at the design stage, disease, logistics delay from enrollment until follow-up complete and data available enrollment rate, Method whether the SSR will be based on variance or treatment effect Gould and Shih (1992) recommend early update as soon as variance estimate stable due to administrative considerations, while Sandvik et al. (1996) recommend as late as possible to get accurate variance estimate

117 117 Adaptive Designs Working Group Recommendation #7 Acceptance of SSR by regulators varies, depending on the reasons for SSR. In general, blinded SSR based on a nuisance parameter is acceptable. When proposing unblinded SSR, should include The objective for SSR Statistical methodology including the control of Type I error When to do the SSR How to implement (e.g., DMC, third party) How to maintain confidentiality How will the results be shared Efficiency (power/sample size) considerations Discuss the plan with regulatory agencies in advance.

118 118 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Introduction/background Methods Fully sequential and group sequential designs Adaptive sample size re-estimation Background Nuisance parameter estimation/internal pilot studies Blinded sample size re-estimation Unblinded sample size re-estimation Conditional power and related methods Discussion and recommendations Case studies References

119 119 Adaptive Designs Working Group Case Study #1: Blinded SSR Based on Variance Drug X low-dose, high-dose and placebo Main efficacy endpoint - percent change in continuous primary outcome N=270 provides 90% power to detect a 10% difference versus placebo estimate of the variability obtained from study performed in a different setting (SD estimated at 20%) seasonal disease: interim analysis performed during long pause in enrollment Recruitment was anticipated to be difficult, specified in protocol that a blinded estimate of the variability of primary outcome would be computed when the sample size is 100 If the variability is less than anticipated (eg., SD 15%) then the final sample size could be reduced If the variability is greater than anticipated (e.g., > 25%), the main comparison would be the pooled Drug X groups (low and high-dose) vs. placebo

120 120 Adaptive Designs Working Group Case Study: REST Study Design Sample size: Age: Dose regimen: Formulation: Potency: Study Period: Minimum of 60,000 (1V:1P) 6 to12 weeks at enrollment 3 oral doses of Rotavirus every 4-10 wks Refrigerated liquid buffer/stabilizer intended for licensure Release range intended for licensure 2001 to 2005

121 121 Adaptive Designs Working Group Primary Safety Hypothesis Oral RotaTeq will not increase the risk of intussusception relative to placebo within 42 days after any dose To satisfy the primary safety hypothesis, 2 criteria must be met: 1. During the study, the vaccine/placebo case ratio does not reach predefined unsafe boundaries being monitored by the DSMB 1 to 42 days following any dose 1 to 7 days following any dose 2. At the end of the study, the upper bound of the 95% CI estimate of the relative risk of intussusception must be 10

122 122 Adaptive Designs Working Group Safety Monitoring for Intussusception (IT) Active surveillance -contacts on day 7 14, and 42 Passive surveillance -parent education Intense surveillance during 6 weeks after each dose Pediatric surgeon, radiologist, & emergency department specialists Use specific case definition Individual & collab- orative adjudications Unblind each case as it occurs and make recommendations about continuing Review all safety data every 6 months IT Surveillance at Study Sites Safety Endpoint Adjudication Committee Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) Potential IT Case Positively Adjudicated IT Case

123 123 Adaptive Designs Working Group Safety Monitoring for Intussusception Trial utilizes two predefined stopping boundary graphs for the 1 to 7 and 1 to 42 day ranges after each dose Stopping boundaries were developed to ensure that the trial will be stopped if there is an increased risk of intussusception within these day ranges DSMB plots intussusception cases on graphs and makes recommendations about continuing the study Stopping Boundary (For 1 to 42 Day Period After Any Dose)

124 124 Adaptive Designs Working Group Intussusception 42 days post-dose Unsafe Boundary (LB on 95% CI >1.0) 0246810121416 Placebo Intussusception Cases 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Vaccine Intussusception Cases Acceptabl e Safety Profile (UB on 95% CI <10)

125 125 Adaptive Designs Working Group REST Group Sequential Study Design Enroll subjects Monitor continuously for intussusception (IT) Stop trial early if detect increased risk of IT Evaluate statistical criteria with 60,000 subjects Primary hypothesis satisfied: Stop Data inconclusive: Enroll 10,000 more infants Monitor continuously and stop early if detect increased risk of IT Evaluate statistical criteria with 70,000 subjects

126 126 Adaptive Designs Working Group Comments on REST Study Design The goal of the REST study design and the extensive safety monitoring was to provide: i. High probability that a safe vaccine would meet the end of study criteria; and simultaneously ii. High probability that a vaccine with increased intussusception risk would stop early due to ongoing safety monitoring The statistical operating characteristics of REST were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation

127 127 Adaptive Designs Working Group Statistical Operating Characteristics of REST* Risk Scenario Probability of reaching unsafe monitoring boundary Probability of meeting end of study safety criteria Safe Vaccine (RR=1)~6%~94% RRV-TV Risk Profile** Case-control study Case-series study ~91% ~85% ~9% ~15% *Assumes background intussusception rate of 1/2000 infant years and102 days of safety follow-up over three doses. ** RRV-TV = rhesus rotavirus tetravalent vaccine; Murphy et al, New Engl J Med. 344(2001): 564-572.

128 128 Adaptive Designs Working Group References (Blinded SSR) Gould, Shih (1992) Comm in Stat (A), 21:2833-2853. Gould (1992) Stat in Medicine, 11:55-66. Shih (1993) Drug Information Journal, 27:761-764. Shih, Gould (1995) Stat in Medicine, 14:2239-2248. Shih, Zhao (1997) Stat in Medicine, 16:1913-1923. Shih, Long (1998) Comm in Stat (A), 27:395-408. Shih, Zhao (1997) Stat in Medicine, 16:1913-1923. Gould, Shih (1998) Stat in Medicine, 17:89-100. Kieser, Friede (2000) Drug Info Journal, 34:455-460. Friede, Kieser (2002) Stat in Medicine, 21:165-176. Friede, Kieser (2003) Stat in Medicine, 22:995-1007. Friede, Kieser (2006) Biometrical Journal, 2006; 48:537-555 Wust, Kieser (2003) Biometrical J, 45:915-930. Wust, Kieser (2005) Comp Stat & Data Analysis, 49:835-855

129 129 Adaptive Designs Working Group References (Others) Bauer, P. (1989) Biometrie und Informatik in Medizin und Biologie 20:130– 148. Wittes, Brittain (1990) Stat in Medicine, 9:65-72 Bristol (1993) J of Biopharm Stat, 3:159-166 Herson, Wittes (1993) Drug Info Journal, 27:753-760 Birkett, Day (1994) Stat in Medicine, 13:2455-2463 Proschan, Hunsberger (1995) Biometrics, 51:1315–1324 Shih, Zhao (1997) Stat in Medicine, 16:1913-1923 Fisher (1998) Stat in Medicine,17:1551-1562 Cui, Hung, Wang (1999) Biometrics, 55:853-857 Wittes et al (1999) Stat in Med, 18:3481-3491 Zucker, Wittes et al (1999) Stat in Medicine,18:3493-3509 Lechmacher, Wassmer (1999) Biometrics, 55:1286-1290 Denne, Jennison (1999) Stat in Medicine, 18:1575-1585 Denne (2000) J of Biopharm Stat, 10:131-144 Kieser, Friede (2000) Stat in Medicine, 19:901-911 Shun, Yuan, Brady, Hsu (2001) Stat in Medicine, 20:497-513

130 130 Adaptive Designs Working Group References (Others) Muller, Schafer (2001) Biometrics, 57:886-891 Coffee, Muller (2001) Biometrics, 57:625-631 Mehta, Tsiatis (2001) Drug Info Journal, 35:1095-1112 Liu, Chi (2001) Biometrics, 57:172–177 Jennison, Turnbull (2003) Stat in Medicine, 22:971-993 Jennison, Turnbull (2006) Biometrika, 93:1-21 Jennison, Turnbull (2006) Stat in Medicine: 25:917-932 Tsiatis, Mehta (2003) Biometrika, 90:367–378 Schwartz, Denne (2003) Pharm Stat, 2:263-27 Brannath, Konig, Bauer (2003) Biometrical J, 45:311-324 Coburger, Wassmer (2003) Biometrical J, 45:812-825 Posch, Bauer, Brannath (2003) Stat in Med, 22:953-969 Friede, Kieser (2004) Pharm Stat, 3:269-279 Cheng, Shen (2004) Biometrics, 60:910-918 Jennison, Turnbull (2004) Technical Reports, U of Bath, UK Anderson et al (2004) JSM Proceedings, ASA.

131 131 Adaptive Designs Working Group References (Others) Lokhnygina (2004) NC State stat dissertation (with Anastasio Tsiatis as the advisor). Sandvik, Erikssen, Mowinckel, Rodland (1995), Statistics in Medicine, 15:1587- 90 Denne and Jennison (2000), Biometrika, 87:125-134 Anderson (2006) Biometrical Journal, to appear

132 132 Adaptive Designs Working Group

133 September 27, 2006 Washington, D.C. FDA/Industry Statistics Workshop Adaptive Designs Logistic, Operational and Regulatory Issues Paul Gallo Biostatistics and Statistical Reporting Novartis

134 134 Adaptive Designs Working Group Primary PhRMA references PhRMA White Paper sections: Quinlan JA and Krams M. Implementing adaptive designs: logistical and operational considerations. Drug Information Journal 2006; 40(4): 437-444. Gallo P. Confidentiality and trial integrity issues for adaptive designs. Drug Information Journal 2006; 40(4): 445-450.

135 135 Adaptive Designs Working Group Outline Motivations and opportunities Cautions and challenges Logistic and feasibility issues Interim monitoring and confidentiality issues review of current conventions monitoring processes for adaptive designs information conveyed by adaptive designs

136 136 Adaptive Designs Working Group General motivation The greater flexibility offered within the adaptive design framework has the potential to translate into more ethical treatment of patients within trials (possibly including the use of fewer patients), more efficient drug development, and better focusing of available resources. The potential appeal of adaptive designs is understandable, and motivates the current high level of interest in this topic.

137 137 Adaptive Designs Working Group Cautions But, being too eager, and proceeding without all relevant issues being fully thought out, is not advisable either. The question should be: What is the most appropriate (e.g., ethical, efficient) means at hand to address the research questions of importance? rather than: How can adaptive designs be integrated into our program at all costs?

138 138 Adaptive Designs Working Group Challenges Clearly, there will be many challenges to be addressed or overcome before adaptive designs become more widely utilized. Statistical Logistic Procedural / regulatory

139 139 Adaptive Designs Working Group General considerations Like any new technology with challenges, some resistance is to be expected. Closer scrutiny is natural, and constructive. But we should not make the perfect be the enemy of the good. Can we address the challenges to a sufficient extent so that in particular situations the advantages outweigh the drawbacks?

140 140 Adaptive Designs Working Group Planning Adaptive designs are not a substitute for poor planning, and in fact will generally require more planning. They are part of a rational strategy to achieve research objectives more efficiently and ethically: by utilizing knowledge gained from the study in a manner which maintains the validity and interpretability of the results.

141 141 Adaptive Designs Working Group Feasibility issues Endpoint follow-up time vs recruitment speed Shorter read-out time is generally favorable to adaptive designs. Surrogates / early predictors can have a role. Timely data collection is important, as well as efficient analysis and decision-making processes. Electronic Data Capture should be helpful.

142 142 Adaptive Designs Working Group Data quality All else being equal, cleaner is better But the usual trade-off exists: cleaner takes longer, and results in less data being available for decisions lack of data is a source of noise also! There is no requirement that data must be fully cleaned for adaptive designs. Details of data quality requirements should be considered on a case-by-case basis.

143 143 Adaptive Designs Working Group Opportunities Early-phase trials may in the short term be the most favorable arena for wider-scale implementation of adaptive designs. More uncertainties, and thus more opportunity for considering adaptation Lesser regulatory concerns Lower-risk opportunities to gain experience with ADs to learn, solve operational problems, and set the stage for more important applications.

144 144 Adaptive Designs Working Group Simulation Simulation will play an important role in planning of adaptive trials. Detailed simulation scenarios should be of broad interest in evaluating adaptive design proposals (e.g., health authorities). Main simulation results may be included in the protocol or analysis plan.

145 145 Adaptive Designs Working Group Monitoring / confidentiality issues Issues relating to monitoring of accruing data restriction of knowledge of interim results and the processes of data review, decision- making and implementation are likely to be critical in determining the extent and shaping the nature of adaptive design utilization in clinical trials.

146 146 Adaptive Designs Working Group Current monitoring conventions Monitoring of accruing data is of course a common feature in clinical trials. Most frequently for: safety monitoring formal group sequential plan allowing stopping for efficacy lack of effect / futility judgments. Current procedures and conventions governing monitoring are a sensible starting point for addressing similar issues in trials with adaptive designs.

147 147 Adaptive Designs Working Group Current monitoring conventions As described in the FDA DMC guidance (2006): Comparative interim results and access to unblinded data should not be accessible to trial personnel, sponsor, investigators. Access to interim results diminishes the ability of trial personnel to manage the trial in a manner which is (and which will be seen by interested parties to be) completely objective.

148 148 Adaptive Designs Working Group Current monitoring conventions Knowledge of interim results could introduce subtle, unknown biases into the trial, perhaps causing slight changes in characteristics of patients recruited, administration of the intervention, endpoint assessments, etc. Changes in investigator enthusiasm? The equipoise argument: knowledge of interim results violates equipoise.

149 149 Adaptive Designs Working Group Current conventions - sponsor FDA (2006): Sponsor exposure to unblinded interim data... can present substantial risk to the integrity of the trial. Risks include lack of objectivity in trial management; further unblinding, even if inadvertent; SEC requirements and fiduciary responsibilities, etc. Sponsor is thus usually not involved in monitoring of confirmatory trials.

150 150 Adaptive Designs Working Group Issues for adaptive designs I.Adaptive designs will certainly require review of accruing data. Who will be involved in the analysis, review, and decision-making processes? Will operational models differ from those weve become familiar with? Will sponsor perspective and input be relevant or necessary for some types of adaptations? Will sponsors accept and trust decisions made confidentially by external DMCs in long-term trials / projects with important business implications (e.g., seamless Phase II / III)?

151 151 Adaptive Designs Working Group Issues for adaptive designs II.An important distinction versus common monitoring situations: the results will be used to implement adaptation(s) which will govern some aspect of the conduct of the remainder of the trial. Can observers infer from viewing the actions taken information about the results which might be perceived to rise to an unacceptable level?

152 152 Adaptive Designs Working Group Analysis / review / decision process Concerns about confidentiality to ensure objective trial management, and potential bias from broad knowledge of interim results, should be no less relevant for adaptive designs than in other settings. The key principles to adhere to would seem to be: separation / independence of the DMC from other trial activities limitation of knowledge about interim treatment effects.

153 153 Adaptive Designs Working Group Analysis / review / decision process Adaptive design trials may utilize a single monitoring board for adaptations and other responsibilities (e.g., safety); or else a separate board may be considered for the adaptation decisions. DMCs in adaptive design trials may require additional expertise not traditionally represented on DMCs; perhaps to monitor the adaptation algorithm, or to make the type of decision called for in the adaptation plan (e.g., dose selection).

154 154 Adaptive Designs Working Group Sponsor participation Sponsor participation and knowledge of interim results in confirmatory adaptive trials may be a hard sell. The objective trial management issue - sponsor can have some influence on trial management activities, even for individuals not directly participating in the trial. There seems to be an assumption that information, once within the sponsor organization, may not be controlled, whether inadvertently or otherwise.

155 155 Adaptive Designs Working Group Sponsor participation Proposal - There should be potential for sponsor involvement in certain types of decisions if: a strong rationale can be described whereby these individuals are needed for the best decision the individuals are not involved in trial operations all involved clearly understand the issues and risks to the trial, and adequate firewalls are in place sponsor exposure to results is minimal for the needed decision, i.e., only at the adaptation point, only the relevant data (e.g., unlike a DMC with whom they may be working, which may have a broader ongoing role).

156 156 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information apparent to observers Adaptive designs may lead to changes in a trial which will be apparent to some extent - sample size, randomization allocation, population, dosage, treatment arm selection, etc., etc. - and can thus be viewed as providing some information to observers about the results which led to those changes. Considering the concerns which are the basis for the confidentiality conventions: can we distinguish between types and amounts of information, and how risky they would be in this regard?

157 157 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information apparent to observers Note: conventional monitoring is not immune from this issue. It has never been the case that no information can be inferred from monitoring; i.e., all monitoring has some potential action thresholds, and lack of action usually implies that such thresholds have not been reached.

158 158 Adaptive Designs Working Group Example – Triangular test Design: Normal data, 2 group comparison Study designed to detect Δ = 0.15 4 equally-spaced analyses will require about 2276 patients.

159 159 Adaptive Designs Working Group Example – Triangular test Christmas tree boundary

160 160 Adaptive Designs Working Group Example – Triangular test Δ = Z / V Continuation beyond the 3 rd look would imply (barring over-ruling of the boundary) that the point estimate is between 0.076 and 0.106. Doesnt that convey quite a bit of information about the interim results? In conventional GS design practice, this issue seems not to be perceived to compromise trials nor to discourage monitoring. ^

161 161 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information apparent to observers Presumably, in GS practice its viewed that reasonable balance is struck between the objectives and benefits of the monitoring and any slight potential for risk to the trial, with appropriate and feasible safeguards in place to minimize that risk. The same type of standard should make sense for adaptive designs.

162 162 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information apparent to observers In some cases we may have opportunities to lessen this concern by withholding certain details of the strategy from the protocol, and placing them in another document of more limited circulation. For example, if some type of selection is to be made based upon predictive probabilities, do full details and thresholds need to be described in the protocol?

163 163 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information apparent to observers A proposal: Selection decisions (choice of dose, subgroup, etc. for continuation) generally do NOT give away an amount of information that would be considered to compromise or influence the trial, as long as the specific numerical results on which the decisions were based remain confidential.

164 164 Adaptive Designs Working Group Information apparent to observers Consider the alternative - In a seamless Phase II / III design, we might instead have run a conventional separate-phase program. Phase II results would be widely known (what about equipoise ??) In this sense, maybe the adaptive design offers a further advantage relative to the traditional paradigm?

165 165 Adaptive Designs Working Group Algorithmic changes More problematic - changes based in an algorithmic manner on interim treatment effect estimates in effect provide knowledge of those estimates to anyone who knows the algorithm and the change. Most typical example - certain approaches to sample size re-estimation: SS new = f (interim treatment effect estimate) => estimate = f -1 (SS new )

166 166 Adaptive Designs Working Group Mitigating the concerns Perhaps the adaptation can be made based upon a combination of factors in order to mask the observed treatment effect. e.g., SS re-estimation using the treatment effect, the observed variance, and external information. If possible, discretize the potential actions, i.e., a small number of potential actions correspond to ranges of the treatment effects. We may at times try to quantify that the knowledge which can be inferred is comparable to that of accepted group sequential plans.

167 167 Adaptive Designs Working Group Summary Adaptive designs suggest real benefits for the clinical development process. Achieving this promise will require full investigation and understanding of the relevant issues, trade-offs, and challenges. Advantages should be considered in balance against any perceived risks or complexities. This should be expected to require more planning, not less. We can expect that adaptive designs will inevitably be scrutinized closely because of their novelty.

168 168 Adaptive Designs Working Group Summary We should not aim to broadly undo established monitoring conventions, but rather to fine-tune them to achieve their sound underlying principles. To justify sponsor participation in monitoring, provide convincing rationale and minimize this involvement, and enforce strict control of information. Some types of adaptations convey limited information for which it seems difficult to envision how the trial might be compromised. Others convey more information, but perhaps we can implement extra steps to mask this.

169 169 Adaptive Designs Working Group References Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. Guideline on Data Monitoring Committees. London: EMEA; 2006. Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. Reflection paper on methodological issues in confirmatory clinical trials with flexible design and analysis plans (draft). London: EMEA; 2006. DeMets DL, Furberg CD, Friedman LM (eds.). Data Monitoring in Clinical Trials: A Case Studies Approach. Springer; 2006. Ellenberg SE, Fleming TR, DeMets DL. Data Monitoring Committees in Clinical Trials: A Practical Perspective. Chichester: Wiley; 2002. US Food and Drug Administration. Guidance for Clinical Trial Sponsors on the Establishment and Operation of Data Monitoring Committees. Rockville MD: FDA; 2006.


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