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Overview California and national economies are very flat Positives for the outlook of both economies: –Lots of federal fiscal stimulus in the pipeline.

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Presentation on theme: "Overview California and national economies are very flat Positives for the outlook of both economies: –Lots of federal fiscal stimulus in the pipeline."— Presentation transcript:

1 Overview California and national economies are very flat Positives for the outlook of both economies: –Lots of federal fiscal stimulus in the pipeline –Energy prices are coming down –Low interest rates Negatives for the outlook: –Too many industries with excess capacity –Consumer debt load getting quite high –State and local government budget problems Fixing Californias budget shortfall is taking too long Mounting federal budget deficits are worrisome Outlook: pretty slow for another year

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7 A New Economy Setback 2001:Q1 – 2002:Q1 Total job losses245,000 Computer services 81,600 High-tech electronics 65,800 Personnel supply 41,500 Other 56,100

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9 Ouch! Of the $9.4 billion decline in state personal income tax in 2001: –Santa Clara County accounted for $3.1 billion –The rest of the Bay Area accounted for $3.8 billion

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12 Risks to the Outlook Anything that spooks the consumer: Consumers wake up one morning and realize they are heavily in debt Another steep decline in the stock market Another terrorist attack on U.S. soil Electricity shortages Budget problems drag on France passes California to become #5


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