1. “Alaska” LCCs Webinar April 1, 2013 PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp; Co-Is: Vladimir Romanovsky, Eugenie Euskirchen, Sergei Marchenko University of Alaska Fairbanks The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada A collaborative research project for the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center and the Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

2. Research Team David McGuire, PI Institute of Arctic Biology Scott Rupp, Co-PI Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning Vladimir Romanovsky, Co-I Geophysical Institute Eugenie Euskirchen, Co-I Institute of Arctic Biology Sergei Marchenko, Co-I Geophysical Institute

3. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

4. What is the IEM? The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change in Alaska and Northwest Canada through providing: A common framework for forecasting landscape change in the region in response to climate- and land cover/use driven changes in vegetation, disturbance, hydrology and permafrost Production of maps and other products related to landscape changes in ecosystem structure (e.g., composition of shrubs vs. sedges in tundra or conifer vs. deciduous trees in forests) and function (e.g., production of forage used by herbivores) A quantification of the uncertainty in expected outcomes (e.g., by the consideration of different climate scenarios, different climate models, aspects of uncertainty in the IEM framework) A team to help in the development of impact models that can use IEM products to address assessments of specific resource management responses to landscape changes A team to help in conducting climate-change impact assessments that can be used to help identify adaptation and management responses to forecasted landscape-scale changes that are projected to impact the management of natural resources.

5. Spatial Domain: What is the IEM?

6. The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada will provide a support tool to inform: Response of ecosystems to climate and land cover/use change Processes that affect species and habitats Development of impact models Assessments of natural resource responses Adaptation and management responses What is the IEM?

7. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

8. What is the IEM Framework? Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including: Fish and Wildlife Impacts Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species Protection of Trust Species Biological Carbon Sequestration Wildland Fire Impacts Water Availability and Water Quality Sea-ice and Glacier Loss Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (Society Resilence) Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish and Wildlife Habitat)

9. What is the IEM Framework? Many of the resource management challenges require information on how climate and land cover/use change will impact: air and soil temperatures snowfall rain on snow ice-free season growing season permafrost stream flow wildfire coastal erosion glaciers

10. Climate Change Integrated Ecosystem Model Fire Permafrost Hydrology What is the IEM Framework? Vegetation

11. Climate Change Integrated Ecosystem Model Fire Permafrost Hydrology canopy cover fire vegetation fire hydrology thermokarst Habitat Change Fire Management Animal Performance vegetation productivity hydrology Hypothetical Model output x output y Impact Models Vegetation What is the IEM Framework

12. Climate Change Integrated Ecosystem Model Fire Permafrost Hydrology canopy cover fire vegetation fire hydrology thermokarst Habitat Change Fire Management Animal Performance vegetation productivity hydrology Hypothetical Model output x output y Impact Models Vegetation Conservation & Resource Management Decisions Stakeholders Communication of Needs What is the IEM Framework?

13. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

14. What are the Components of the IEM? Climate Fire Permafrost Hydrology Vegetation

15. What are the Components of the IEM? Burned area Fire Severity ALFRESCO DOS-DVM-TEM GIPL-2 Soil moisture Moss & Organics Plant Functional Types Vegetation type Soil Thermal Properties Downscaled GCM Data

16. What are the Components of the IEM? Vegetation

17. Climate Change Integrated Ecosystem Model Fire Permafrost Hydrology What are the Components of the IEM? Vegetation =

18. canopy cover probability of fire species composition vegetation cover probability of fire surface hydrology probability of thermokarst Habitat Change Models Fire Management Models Animal Performance Models vegetation cover biomass productivity surface hydrology Hypothetical Model model output x model output y Impact Models What are the Components of the IEM? Conservation & Resource Management Decisions Other stakeholder groups Communication of Needs Alaska IEM

19. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

20. Spatial Domain: Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

21. Together, Alaska and northwest Canada LCCs can:  Jointly address state- or region-wide information needs  Serve as a forum for learning and information exchange  At multiple levels  Facilitate communication and collaboration  Among agencies/organizations  Across disciplines  Across jurisdictional boundaries  The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada and the Alaska Climate Science Center can help with cross LCC coordination. LCC Coordination

22.  Assessing the status of baseline data  Coordinated observations (detecting change)  Understanding relationships (understanding change)  Projecting future states (forecasting change)  Adaptation framework and best management practices (responding to change)

23. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including (from www.doi.gov/lcc):www.doi.gov/lcc Fish and Wildlife Impacts (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Protection of Trust Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC) (IEM) Biological Carbon Sequestration (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Wildland Fire Impacts (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Water Availability and Water Quality (ALCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Sea-ice and Glacier Loss (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM?) Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration (WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (ALCC, WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM) Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish and Wildlife Habitat) (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM) To address these issues requires the development of impact models that can use outputs from the IEM. The IEM team is ready to work with people developing impact models!

24. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

25. IEM Activities  Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses.  Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue)  Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics  Model Development (2012-2013)  Model Integration and Application (2013-2014)  Impact Model Development and Application (Caribou Animal Performance?; 2014- 2016)  Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model  Model Development (2012-2013)  Model Integration and Application (2014-2015)  Impact Model Development and Application (Shorebird Impact Model?; 2015-2016)  Development of Wetland Dynamics Model  Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013)  Model Development (2014)  Model Integration and Application (2015-2016)  Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) – Includes Southeast Alaska

26. IEM Products  Climate  Historical and projected climate data for several scenarios of climate change and for several climate models (available)  Soil Properties  Permafrost distribution, active layer thickness (2013, with updates)  Disturbance  Historical and projected area burned (historical available, projected 2013)  Susceptibility to thermokarst (2013)  Thermokarst disturbance scenarios and landscape change (2014)  Landcover and Vegetation  Projected treeline (2013, updates)  Future distribution of vegetation types (2013, updates)  Ecosystem Dynamics  Carbon fluxes, net primary productivity (2013, updates)

27. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

28. IEM Accomplishments and Activities to Date  Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses.  http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php  Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue)  ALFRESCO and DOS-DVM-TEM are currently exchanging data each time step, next step is to exchange data with GIPL2  Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics  Model development largely completed in 2012, model calibration and testing are currently occurring, plan is for first model application to be completed by July 2013  Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model  Developed a conceptual approach to model development in 2012 (produced a white paper)  Currently developing the code for the model according to a schedule for completion by end of 2013  Development of Wetland Dynamics Model  Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013)  Developed Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal fen application in 2011-2012  Development of Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal bog application in 2013  Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014)  Working on Calibrations, model application to be completed in 2013

29. Acknowledgements Research ScientistsResearch Associates Mark WaldropBob Bolton Postdoctoral FellowsGraduate Students Kirsten BarrettTobey Carman Amy BreenWinslow Hansen Zhaosheng Fan Elchin Jafarov Helene Genet Technical Staff Reginald Muskett Alec Bennett Fengming Yuan Tom Kurkowski Yujin ZhangDustin Rice Stephanie McAfeeMichael Lindgren DOI Alaska Climate Science Center Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific LCCs

30. Presentation Outline I. What is the IEM Project? II. What is the IEM Framework? III. What are the Components of the IEM? IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate? VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date? VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

31. Where can you learn more about the IEM? Further information is available at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/project_page.php?projectid=15 http://www.snap.uaf.edu/project_page.php?projectid=15 and http://arcticlcc.org/projects/landscape/integrated-ecosystem-model-iem-for-alaska/ and soon at a new location on the Alaska Climate Science Center web site. Or contact Dave McGuire (admcguire@alaska.edu; 907-474-6242), Scott Rupp (tsrupp@alaska.edu; 907-474-7535), or Amy Breen (albreen@alaska.edu; 907-474- 6927)admcguire@alaska.edutsrupp@alaska.edualbreen@alaska.edu Questions?