1. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. 1 Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy São Paulo, Brazil June 27, 2013 Mille Bojer, Reos André Degenszajn, GIFE Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A WINGS Forum 2014 Istanbul, Turkey

2. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Objectives for this session To understand how transformative scenarios can be used to help articulate paths for civil society and to harness the power of networks To share two stories and explore what we can learn from them about the situation of civil society in South Africa and Brazil To start a dialogue about the value of scenario thinking in philanthhropy 2

3. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Warmup: “If you could speak to a clairvoyant about the future of civil society in your country, what question would you most like to ask them ?”

4. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. What are transformative scenarios?

5. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Scenarios: “…structured, well considered stories describing a small set of possible future contexts and how they might come about.”

6. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. 6 Predictions Projections Preferences Options Stories of possible futures that are: Relevant Illuminate current circumstances and concerns Link into current mental models Challenging Make the invisible visible Question current mental models Plausible Fact-based and logical Improve systemic understanding Clear Distinct Accessible and memorabl e

7. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Five steps 1. Convene a team from the whole system 5. Act to transform the system 3. Create the stories that need to be told 4. Discover what can and must be done Source: Kahane 2. Observe what is happening 7

8. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. How transformative scenarios work They transform Our understanding Our relationships Our intentions Our actions Our language 8

9. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES Dinokeng Scenarios Collectively constructing a sustainable future for South Africa

10. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Seismic political shifts, with Jacob Zuma assuming the presidency in 2009. A time marked by uncertainty, power struggle and political reshuffling within the ANC. World in the midst of economic crisis, sending tremors through the local economy Large-scale migration from the neighbouring state of Zimbabwe and other countries in the region, and xenophobic attacks across the stressed area. The effects of climate change and economic crisis placing increasing pressure on agricultural production, rural sustainability, and food security. Unacceptably high levels of crime. The realities of constructing a new nation had revealed themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task than its people had anticipated. The Context in 2009

11. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. The Scenarios 11 Engaged Innefective Disengaged Effective CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY CAPACITY OF THE STATE Collaborative and enabling state. Engaged and active citizenry Interventionist and directive state. Dependent and compliant citizenry.. Corrupt and inefecttive state. Distrusting and self- protective citizenry 2009 2020 WALK TOGETHER WALK BEHIND WALK APART

12. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Placed the simple, crucial “Walk Together” insight about citizen re-engagement into the center of South African discourse. Example: The essence of the plan for the country prepared by the National Planning Commission, set up in 2010, focuses on engaging an active citizenry, promoting leadership through every aspect of society, and building a capable state. Crystallized a core debate among South African leaders about the role that the state should play in national development. Members of the Dinokeng team expanded their shared understanding of their situation and of their roles in it. They helped their system get unstuck and move forward. The large-scale dissemination of the Dinokeng scenarios was intended to regenerate active participation by South Africans in their new democracy. Dinokeng contributed to opening up and strengthening the country’s politics and its capacity to deal with its challenges. The Impact

13. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. In 2013, Reos entered into partnership with the D3 Articulation for Democracy, Dialogue and Rights and the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic to co-convene a transformative scenarios process on the future of civil society in Brazil, labeled “Civil Society 2023”. Civil Society 2023: Four futures for Brazilian Civil Society

14. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Context for the Brazilian Civil Society Scenarios What is the current reality of Civil Society in Brazil? What were the big uncertainties in 2013? What big questions were we holding about the future? 14

15. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. 15

16. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. The Impact so far Individual level: Shift in perspective, new actions Organizational level: Incorporation into strategic planning processes, impact on leaders, Field level: Placing value on civil society, offering a new language and specific risks and opportunities, creation of a network, new partnerships among participating organizations; dissemination nationally and internationally

17. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Questions, comments, reflections “How is this all relevant to your context ?”

18. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. 18 For more information: www.reospartners.com bojer@reospartners.com www.dinokengscenarios.co.za www.sociedadecivil2023.org.br Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane (Berrett-Koehler, 2012). Available from Amazon.