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10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society.

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Presentation on theme: "10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society."— Presentation transcript:

1 10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society

2 2WFS 7-09 Overview of U.S. Higher Education Greatest diversity of institutions in the world Greatest diversity of institutions in the world Long considered the best system in the world Long considered the best system in the world Major innovations – independent boards of trustees, community colleges, open access Major innovations – independent boards of trustees, community colleges, open access Massification since Korean War Massification since Korean War

3 3WFS 7-09 Mission Differentiation Research Research Liberal arts Liberal arts Comprehensive universities Comprehensive universities Community colleges Community colleges Faith-based Faith-based Specialized/single purpose Specialized/single purpose One solution never fits all.

4 4WFS 7-09 Institutions Public 4-year institutions 643 Public 2-year institutions 1,045 Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533 Private 4-year institutions, for-profit453 Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit107 Private 2-year institutions, for-profit533 Total 4,314

5 5WFS 7-09 Where Students Go Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%) Public 2-year institutions 6,225,120 (35%) Private 4-year institutions 4,285,317 (24%) Private 2-year institutions 293,420 (1%) Total 17,758,870 81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had graduated from high school in the previous year attended colleges in their home states.

6 6WFS 7-09 Demographics Women57.3% Full-time61.7% Minority31.5% Foreign 3.4%

7 7WFS 7-09 1. Financial Meltdown At a time of increased need for higher education: Public funding cuts Public funding cuts Endowment decline > 20% Endowment decline > 20% Crunch on lines of credit Crunch on lines of credit Limits on tuition increases at private institutions Limits on tuition increases at private institutions Increases at public universities Increases at public universities

8 8WFS 7-09

9 9 3-5 Year Setting Every state will have a structural deficit Every state will have a structural deficit Pell increases do not make up differences Pell increases do not make up differences $50 billion stimulus money for higher education is one time, focused $50 billion stimulus money for higher education is one time, focused Student debt load increasing Student debt load increasing Student work hours increasing Student work hours increasing

10 10WFS 7-09 Short –Medium Term Consequences Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not restructure Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not restructure Will shift most public supported institutions to public assisted Will shift most public supported institutions to public assisted Lead to search for new sources of revenue -- increased business partnerships, joint ventures Lead to search for new sources of revenue -- increased business partnerships, joint ventures Need for new models – are they out there? Need for new models – are they out there?

11 11WFS 7-09 2. President Obamas Priorities Highest proportion of college graduates in the world by 2020 (40 % 60%) Highest proportion of college graduates in the world by 2020 (40 % 60%) National high school exit standards National high school exit standards Linked to college readiness standards Linked to college readiness standards $15 billion community college initiative $15 billion community college initiative $50 million for free online courses $50 million for free online courses Centers to develop and share best practices Centers to develop and share best practices

12 12WFS 7-09 Short – Medium Term Impact Shift toward vocational and technical education/jobs Shift toward vocational and technical education/jobs Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation Initiatives Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation Initiatives Recognition that community colleges are today what high schools were 30 years ago Recognition that community colleges are today what high schools were 30 years ago Increased access through open admissions Increased access through open admissions Increased participation of underrepresented groups Increased participation of underrepresented groups

13 13WFS 7-09 3. Influence of For Profits and Market Capital Fastest growing sector Fastest growing sector Increasing mergers, acquisitions Increasing mergers, acquisitions Conversion of nonprofit universities Conversion of nonprofit universities Joint ventures with mainline institutions Joint ventures with mainline institutions Growth, scalability and high profitability of proprietary systems Growth, scalability and high profitability of proprietary systems Increasing connections with industry – e.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeley Increasing connections with industry – e.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeley

14 14WFS 7-09 4. Technology and Distance Education > 2 million students > 2 million students Growing rapidly, increasing competition Growing rapidly, increasing competition Hybrid programs most effective Hybrid programs most effective Greatest number within traditional settings Greatest number within traditional settings High tech does not always mean high enrollment High tech does not always mean high enrollment Can be centers of high profit Can be centers of high profit Continuing Congressional concerns Continuing Congressional concerns

15 15WFS 7-09 5. Internationalization Lincoln Commission – value to US students of study abroad Lincoln Commission – value to US students of study abroad Increase in international students in US Increase in international students in US Increased competition here and abroad for best international students Increased competition here and abroad for best international students Infusion of international perspectives -- a course or a holistic perspective? Infusion of international perspectives -- a course or a holistic perspective?

16 16WFS 7-09 6. Globalization International recognition of importance of higher education International recognition of importance of higher education Major investments in local systems Major investments in local systems Bologna Process will have significant impact over time Bologna Process will have significant impact over time Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical school opening in US; new programs and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical school opening in US; new programs and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual degrees Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual degrees

17 17WFS 7-09 7. Quality Assurance and Accountability Completion rates Completion rates Placement rates Placement rates Learning results Learning results Costs Costs Debt load Debt load Executive compensation Executive compensation Board accountability Board accountability

18 18WFS 7-09 Has Quality Declined? NAAL: Performance of college graduates and those with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003: NAAL: Performance of college graduates and those with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003: -- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to 31% -- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41% National Survey of Americas College Students: significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative skills National Survey of Americas College Students: significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative skills No significant differences between public and private institutions No significant differences between public and private institutions In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or technical curricula In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or technical curricula Employers: college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U surveys) Employers: college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U surveys)

19 19WFS 7-09 6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year Institutions All56.4% Men53.0% Women59.2% Visit www.edtrust.org – College Results Online

20 20WFS 7-09 Global Competitiveness Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%) Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%) Dropped from 1 st to 7 th in college participation rates of 18-24 year olds Dropped from 1 st to 7 th in college participation rates of 18-24 year olds 2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10 th for 25-34 2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10 th for 25-34 15 th in completion rates 15 th in completion rates Lower than OECD average for science and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores) Lower than OECD average for science and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores)

21 21WFS 7-09 8. Sustainability and the University Presidents Climate Commitment Presidents Climate Commitment Involvement of professional associations Involvement of professional associations Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization Major area of scientific research Major area of scientific research Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts and humanities for the change in consciousness needed Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts and humanities for the change in consciousness needed

22 22WFS 7-09 9. 21 st Century Learning Competencies We are responsible for preparing our students to address problems we cannot foresee with knowledge that has not yet been developed using technology not yet invented. The problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which we created them. Albert Einstein

23 23WFS 7-09 Is Higher Education Primarily for Economic Gain?

24 24WFS 7-09 Or Developing the Nations Talent and Creativity?

25 25WFS 7-09 Changing Character of Knowledge Sources of Knowledge Sources of Knowledge education institution everywhere (deinstitutionalized learning) education institution everywhere (deinstitutionalized learning) Understanding of Knowledge Understanding of Knowledge static dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability to unlearn) static dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability to unlearn) Structure of Knowledge Structure of Knowledge compartmental holistic compartmental holistic Nature of Knowledge Nature of Knowledge external authority personal and contextual external authority personal and contextual

26 26WFS 7-09 21 st Century Skills Problem identification or articulation 19 Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new combinations of actions 23 Integration of knowledge across different disciplines 32 Ability to originate new ideas 46 Comfort with notion of no right answer 511 Fundamental curiosity 610 Originality and inventiveness in work 74 Problem solving 81

27 27WFS 7-09 10. New Forms of Institutions Institutional consolidations/closures Institutional consolidations/closures Cloud programs across institutions Cloud programs across institutions The partnering university The partnering university Privatized public universities Privatized public universities Credit banks Credit banks Transnational universities Transnational universities

28 28WFS 7-09 What Is On Your List? Ralph Wolff rwolff@wascsenior.org


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