Operations Research : An Overview

Operations Research : An Overview
Wong Siew Kwan Research & Strategic Studies Branch STRIDE July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 1

Scope STRIDE – Organisation Briefing OR in STRIDE History of OR
Some Definitions Examples of OR application Methodology in OR Analysis Success of a Military OR Study Some OR Tools and Techniques Asia-Pacific Military Operations Research Symposium (AMORS) 2 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE
Tentative Programme 1100 – 1225 Organisation Briefing, OR in STRIDE, History of OR, Some Definitions, Examples of OR Application Break : 1235 – 1400 Methodology in OR, Success in Military OR Study, Some Tools & Techniques, AMORS July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Historical Development of STRIDE
1968 Defence Technical Centre (DTC) 1972 Defence Research Centre (DRC) - Commissioning of Main Laboratories in Kuala Lumpur 1985 Defence Science & Technology Centre (DSTC or PSTP) - Establishment of Maritime Branch in TLDM Base, Lumut Commissioning of Weapons Complex in Batu Arang (officially opened in 1995) 2002 Establishment of STRIDE as a Department under Ministry of Defence - Launch of Construction of Main Complex in Kajang 2004 Starting operation at Kompleks Induk STRIDE, Kajang September – Launch of Kompleks Induk STRIDE by DPM July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

STRIDE Corporate Statements
Mission “ To nurture, develop and provide complete scientific and technological capability and expertise to the nation’s defence sector” Vision “To Excel in Defence Technology” July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

STRIDE Core Values Serving the client through Teamwork with Resourcefulness, Integrity and Diligence to achieve Excellence July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

STRIDE’s Objectives Provide science and technology information and advice in planning and execution of the national defence programme Conduct scientific and technological support through R&D and evaluations in procurement and utilization of the nation’s defence materiel and systems Prepare scientific and technological resources relevant to national defence requirements Develop industrial relations with the intention of providing scientific and technological assistance towards the development of a defence industry Develop technical links with external research organizations for purposes of increasing defence scientific and technological capabilities July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Organisation Structure
Indicator Red box – cawangan yang menganjurkan lawatan Blue – relevant cawangan yg turut serta dalam lawatan Ketiga-tiga kumpulan akan terlibat dlm projek yg berkaitan dgn simulation(to be briefed later) July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Technical Activities Approach Methodology Expertise TRIALS & ANALYSIS
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT Novel Approach Methodology TECHNICAL EVAL. & SPEC. INVESTIGATION Conventional Average High Expertise July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

STRIDE’s Involvement in Acquisition
Needs, Operations Research, Technology Assessment CONCEPT Technical Examination, Standards STRIDE SPECIFICATION Operations Research, Trials PRE-TENDER Trials & Evaluations Pre-Delivery Inspection TENDER Modifications, Investigations, Life-Extension Assessment, R&D EQUIPMENT DELIVERY FIELD DEPLOYMENT END OF LIFE July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

STRIDE’s Research Infrastructure
July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

STRIDE’s New Research Infrastructure
ADMINISTRATION BLOCK INSTRUMENTATION & ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY MECHANICAL & AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT LABORATORY PROTECTION & BIOPHYSICAL TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Main Complex & Temporary Office
July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Research and Strategic Studies Branch Formed in 2002 Strength in 2009
OR in STRIDE Research and Strategic Studies Branch Formed in 2002 Strength in 2009 Position At present Study leave Total Senior Officers 3 - Officers 1 (PhD) 4 Assistant Officers 10 11 14 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 14

Research & Strategic Studies Branch
MISSION To provide and consolidate effective decision support for strategic planning, operations research and systems effectiveness for MAF and Ministry of Defence FUNCTIONS To conduct strategic studies for Ministry of Defence and defence science and technology planning To identify new concepts, analyse capability options, identify capability gaps and analyse options to fill the gaps To conduct quantitative analysis and construct simulation for model development To support defence acquisition and ‘Through Life Support’ in source selection studies through cost analysis and cost effectiveness To conduct operations research on force structuring, doctrine development, manpower and logistics planning To support and advise in development, implementation and analysis of defence R&D projects 15 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 15

OR Activities in STRIDE
Conduct research studies/projects - LCC project for Handalan Truck - AHP for defence acquisition Assist in R&D projects - Anthropometric Survey Other activities - development of OR Laboratory for Modeling, Simulation & Analysis (Decision Support Centre) - provide support for LCC / ILS training (BLP MATM) and also Staff College 16 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 16

Other Technical Activities
Screening and endorsement of procurement specifications Research & Development (R & D) Management Offset and Transfer of Technology Programmes Bilateral Cooperation in Defence Science & Technology Malaysian Defence Cooperation Programme (MDCP) 17 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 17

Operations Management
Some Terminology Operations Research Operational Research Operational Analysis Management Science Decision Science Operations Management 18 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

History of OR Although scientists had been involved in the hardware side of warfare (designing better plane, bombs, tanks etc.), scientific analysis of the operational use of military resources had never taken place in a systematic fashion before the WW II. Military personnel were simply not trained to undertake such analysis. 19 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

History of OR OR started just before WW II in Britain with the establishments of teams of scientists to study the strategic and tactical problems involved in military operations. The objective was to find the most effective utilisation of limited military resources by the use of quantitative techniques. 20 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

In 1941, Prof. Blackett and his team
History of OR In 1941, Prof. Blackett and his team (1 physicist, 2 physiologists, 2 mathematical physicists and 1 surveyor) were asked by the British Government to advise on technical problems arising out of induction of new weapons and equipment. Classical example - Depth setting for depth charge explosion to be dropped by aircraft against surfaced German submarines (U-boat). 21 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

History of OR Initially the attacks based on explosion at a depth of 150 ft. were judged to be unsuccessful as not many submarines were reported sunk. Using available data and simple analysis, the depth setting was reduced from 150 ft. to 25 ft. The average no. of submarines sunk for a given no. of attacks has increased by more than two times. 22 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

After the war, OR introduced into industry
History of OR After the war, OR introduced into industry - Solve problems related to how to coordinate activities of organisation. - Applied to a wide range of industries: manufacturing, transportation, finance, construction, telecommunication, health care, etc. 23 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

History of OR Manufacturers used OR to make products more efficiently, schedule equipment maintenance and control inventory and distribution. And success in these areas led to expansion into strategic and financial planning. 24 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

History of OR The growth of OR since it began, especially in the last 30 years, is to a large extent, the result of the increasing power and widespread availability of computers. Most OR involves carrying out a large number of numeric calculations. Without computers, this would simply not be possible. 25 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

“The science of better”
What is OR? “The science of better” “The use of mathematical models, statistics and algorithms to aid in decision-making with the goal of improving or optimizing performance.” “Research designed to determine the most efficient way to do something.” 26 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

What is OR? “The application of scientific methods to improve the effectiveness of operations, decisions and management.” “The discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions” 27 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

What is OR? Operations Research (OR) is the field of how to form mathematical models of complex management decisions problems and how to analyse the models to gain insight about possible solutions. - Institute of OR and MS (INFORMS) 28 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

What is Military OR? Deals with operations different from those arising in economic & social activities (civil operations). In civil sector, unusual for aircraft to fly at speed > 3 Mach and altitude of > 75,000 ft. , or a nuclear powered submarine carrying nuclear missiles lying below frozen ice, or air-to-air refueling, or aircraft taking-off from ships in open seas. July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

What is Military OR? Wars occurs rarely and has large uncertainties and complexities. Analysis and planning of military operations more complicated and difficult than civilian operations. Availability and reliability of war data pose another problem in analyzing. July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

What is Military OR? Objectives expressed in terms of casualties of men & material, loss of territory and mission achievement. Effectiveness not measured in terms of cost (normal criteria in civil operations). Application of OR to military sector poses unique modeling problems and raises issues pertaining to establishing relevant measures of effectiveness. July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

What is Military OR? Military OR may be defined as “a scientific method of providing defence departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control”. July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Example – OR application
Trim Loss Problem: A company has to manufacture the circular tops of cans. Two sizes, one of diameter 10 cm and the other of 20 cm are required. They are to be cut from metal sheets of dimensions 20 cm X 50 cm. The requirement of smaller size (size S) is 20,000 and of large size (size L) is 15,000. The problem is: how to cut the tops from the metal sheets so that the number of sheets used is a minimum. 33 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

A sheet can be cut into one of the following three patterns:
10 10 Pattern I Pattern II 20 10 20 10 10 Pattern III 20 34 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Pattern I : cut into 10 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make 10 tops of size S. Pattern II : cut into 2 pieces of size 20 cm x 20 cm and 2 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make 2 tops of size L and 2 tops of size S. Pattern III : cut into 1 pieces of size 20 cm x 20 cm and 6 pieces of size 10 cm x 10 cm so as to make 1 top of size L and 6 tops of size S. 35 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

So assume that x1 sheets are cut according to pattern I, x2 according to pattern II, x3 according to pattern III. The problem is to: Minimize z = x1 + x2 + x3 Subject to x1 + 2 x2 + 6 x3 ≥ 20,000 (size S) 2 x2 + x3 ≥ 15,000 (size L) x1, x2, x3 ≥ 0, integers objective function constraints decision variables 36 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Discussion – Trim Loss problem
- A decision problem. - Formulate a mathematical model from a real-world situation. - Some quantitative method (an algorithm) to numerically solve the model. - Model has an objective, i.e. to optimize. - Having obtained numerically solution of model, have to translate solution back into real-world situation. 37 37 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 37

The Operation Desert Storm Airlift
The problem: - In 1991, the Military Air Command (MAC) was charged with scheduling aircraft, crew, and mission support resources to maximize the on-time delivery of cargo and passengers to the Persian Gulf. - A typical airlift mission carrying troops and cargo to the Gulf required a three-day round trip, visiting 7 or more different airfields, burned almost 1 million pounds of fuel and cost $ 280,000. 38 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Objectives and requirements: - Create a scheduling system for aircraft - Create a communication system coordinating the schedule among bases in the US and other countries. 39 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

The OR solution - MAC worked with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop the Airlift Deployment Analysis System (ADANS). - Within 3 months, ADANS provided a set of decision support tools to manage: - Information on cargo and passengers - Information on available resources - ADANS also developed tools for: - Scheduling missions - Analysing the schedule - Distributing the schedule to MAC worldwide C & C system 40 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

The value: - By August 1991, more than 25,000 missions had moved nearly 1 million passengers (including 350,000 troops) and 800,000 tons of cargo to and from the Persian Gulf. 41 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR 1. Problem identification 2. Formulation as a mathematical model 3. Data Collection & Model solution – develop computer based procedure for deriving solutions from the model 4. Model validation – test the model 5. Evaluation and implementation 42 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR Model – a simplified representation of real world situation. Types of models: - physical model (e.g. wind tunnel model) - graphical model (e.g. map or flow chart) - symbolic model (e.g. equations or mathematical model – linear / non linear programming) 43 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR Real world problem Real world solution Model
* 07/16/96 Methodology of OR Implementation Real world problem Real world solution Formulation Validation Algorithm Model Model solution 44 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE *

Methodology of OR 1. Problem identification - OR analyst holds discussion with the management to understand and appreciate the problem to be solved, identifies the objectives and generates the alternatives. - also selects variables affecting problem, constraints imposed and determine measure of effectiveness. 45 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR 2. Model Formulation - model is an imitation of real situation. - in OR analysis, ‘symbolic’ models are used which are in the form of mathematical equations and represent relationships between various ‘uncontrollable’ and ‘controllable’ variables. Aims at determining values of controllable variables so as to optimize measure of effectiveness. 46 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR 3. Model solution - once model has been formulated, relevant data are collected and the model is solved using some standard computer packages, or specially developed algorithms. 47 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR 4. Model validation - a model is a representation of real situation and model solution is expected to closely predict the behavior of real system. May like to know closeness of prediction. - process of testing / improving model. 48 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Methodology of OR 5. Evaluation & implementation - once the model has been validated, the available alternatives are evaluated by determining their measure of effectiveness. - then recommend the preferred alternatives in order of their suitability for meeting the defined goal. 49 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Success of Military OR Study
Some factors should be kept in view while organizing a military OR study: (i) Composition of the Team (ii) Data Availability (iii) Mutual Understanding between Analyst and Decision Maker (iv) Duration of the OR Study 50 50 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 50

(i) Composition of the Team OR analysis requires a team of analysts from different disciplines. Military officers from concerned service should be associated with the team to assist in problem formulation, data collection, and model validation. Also specialist with OR background and software development experience are essential. 51 51 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 51

(ii) Data Availability Military OR studies suffer due to non-availability of required data. This affects model development and validation. Military data, particularly from the operations, are either not available or are confidential, and may not be reliable. Need to ensure availability and reliability of required data. 52 52 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 52

(iii) Mutual Understanding between Analyst and Decision Maker Enhancing mutual understanding between analyst and decision maker is vital for implementation of an OR study. Develop communication plans to maintain awareness of study progress and decision maker are kept informed. 53 53 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 53

(iv) Duration of the OR Study Military OR studies are time bound and complex. The pressure from decision maker on an OR analyst seems to be much more in military sector than in other sectors. Ensure timely responses to sponsors and decision makers. 54 54 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 54

Some Tools and Techniques
1. Optimization 2. Simulation and War Games 3. Cost Effectiveness Analysis 4. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 55 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Optimization The Resources allocation problems:
Weapon deployment problem – to determine the no. of defence system to be deployed at each site to provide maximum overall protection against enemy attack, subject to constraints. Airlift problem - to determine the plan to airlift supplies to meet the logistics requirements in the forward areas subject to constraints on availability of aircraft, demand and environmental conditions. 56 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Optimization The Transportation problem: - the objective is to identify how much material should be transported from each depot to each destination such that the cost of transportation is minimized. The Assignment problem: - The objective is to assign the jobs to various workers such that the total cost of execution of tasks is minimum. 57 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Optimization Linear Programming - a technique applied in solving optimization problems in which the objective function and the constraints are linear functions. - oldest OR tool, versatile 58 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Simulation & War Games Simulation is imitation of the operations of a real world process or system over time. Requires a large amount of data and the use of probability and statistics. OR and simulation modeling have been used by management for decision-making in various areas including military applications, supply chain management, manufacturing, forecasting and human resource management. . 59 59 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 59

Simulation & War Games Some simulation & war games packages:
- Simulation, Evaluation, Analysis and Research on Air Defence Systems (SEAROADS) - Combat Sample Generator (COSAGE) - Concepts Evaluation Model (CEM) - Tactical Warfare Model (TACWAR) - Small Unit Battle Simulation Model (SUBSIM) 60 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Simulation & War Games Land War Games: - Mechanized Force War Game (MFWG) - Contingency Force Analysis War Game (CFAW) Naval War Games: - Research, Evaluation and System Analysis (RESA) - MANTHAN Air War Games: - AGILE, SABRE 61 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Cost Effectiveness Analysis
Selection of equipment for acquisition from available systems is an important issue encountered by defence executive. The selection of a weapon system depends on its effectiveness and the cost. The system which accomplishes the desired level of effectiveness at lowest cost needs to be identified from amongst the alternative systems. 62 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

The effectiveness of a weapon system is a quantitative measure of the level up to which the system meets its objectives. Effectiveness of an artillery gun system primarily depends on its rate of fire, lethal radius and accuracy. To compare and evaluate alternative gun systems, need to define a measure of effectiveness. 63 63 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 63

For system cost estimation, consider systems which are to be developed and those which already exist. When new systems are developed, expenditure occurs in R & D, investment, and operating and support phases. For existing systems, costing is done on basis of procurement, maintenance and operating cost over life cycle. 64 64 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 64

Fixed Effectiveness Approach – effectiveness level fixed, find alternative with least cost. Fixed Budget Approach – budget is fixed, find alternative with maximum effectiveness. Figure of Merit Approach – find alternative with the highest effectiveness/cost ratio. 65 65 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 65

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
A tool / technique for evaluating tenders and contractors when more than one criterion to consider while making decision. E.g. weapons for acquisition have to be evaluated on several criteria, e.g. suitability, maintainability and cost. - Multicriteria decision making problem 66 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE

Tank performance: Level 1- firepower, mobility, survivability Level 2 Firepower - main gun, secondary armament, munitions, FCS, night vision, auto loader Mobility - P/W ratio, road range, max. speed, fuel consumption, nominal ground pressure, Survivability – built in armour, add on armour, silhouette, laser warning, NBC protection 67 67 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 67

Data collection from the experts corresponding to the hierarchy structure is undertaken. Pair wise comparisons of various criteria and sub-criteria / sub subcriteria are carried out, and are organised into a square matrix. Evaluation and decision then made based on comparison results. 68 68 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 68

Selection of contractors: Level 1- contract value, lead time, competence, dependability Level 2 Contract value – currency, terms of payment Lead time – trial schedule, delivery schedule Competence – technical, infrastructure Dependability – variety of contract, performance 69 69 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 69

Operations Research as Decision Support Tool
STRATEGIC STUDIES New Govt. policy S&T-related policy Operations Research Need for new/upgraded capability New threat Systems Life Cycle Identified deficiency Performance Database Validation of Models CAPABILITY STUDIES Operations Research Exercise assessment Exercise capability Planning Training Operations Research Revise tactics Introduce new/upgraded capability MILITARY OR 70 70 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 70

Operations Research Working Area
Strategic planning for MOD and Defence S&T Capability and System Analysis Analysis of Alternatives Force Structure Evaluation of operations planning Doctrine development Manpower and logistic planning DECISION SUPPORT MILITARY OR QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE Source selection studies Cost analysis - Cost effectiveness Systems development Mathematical programming Spreadsheet modeling Constructive simulation for model development ACQUISITION & THROUGH-LIFE SUPPORT ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AND MODEL BUILDING 71 71 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 71

Asia-Pacific Military OR Symposium
Asia-Pacific Military Operations Research Symposium (AMORS) – a formal gathering aimed at those defence and defence-related personnel who are active users or managers of OR applications in the solutions of military problems. Purpose is to allow military OR / OA analysts and users to share their military OR work and promote professional interaction. 72 72 72 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 72

Current participating countries are as follows: Australia Canada India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore Thailand U.S.A. 73 73 73 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 73

AMORS is an invitation only symposium. The host country will send invitations to current representative of each country who will then solicit members of their country’s OR organization for topics to present. The theme of symposium will be chosen by the host country. Recommendations for the next symposium will be presented at the Executive Meeting of the ongoing AMORS. 74 74 74 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 74

AMORS is a bi-annual activity and the duration of symposium is typically 3 days: a two-day conference proper and a one-day cultural tour. The programme of the two-day conference consists of three segments: - Country Brief - Presentation of military OR work - Multilateral Executive Meeting 75 75 75 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 75

AMORS VIII, 2006 (6 – 8 June) was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and the theme of symposium : “Effective Defence Development Through OR”. AMORS IX , 2008 (8 – 10 Sept) was held in Sydney, Australia and the theme of symposium : “OA / OR Support to Current Operations”. 76 76 76 July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 76

Thank You ! July 2009 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE for DEFENCE 77

Operations Research : An Overview

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