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Values Based Politics DLC National Conversation Presented by Mark Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Assoc. Inc July 17, 2001.

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Presentation on theme: "Values Based Politics DLC National Conversation Presented by Mark Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Assoc. Inc July 17, 2001."— Presentation transcript:

1 Values Based Politics DLC National Conversation Presented by Mark Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Assoc. Inc July 17, 2001

2 Lessons From 2000

3 Republican Base 22% Swing II 28% Democratic Base 23% Swing I 27% The American Electorate

4 Swing I Suburban Women Worried about children and families Swing II Wired Workers – Men Fiscally Conservative Socially Progressive Investing in stock market Work in suburbs – not downtown plant Want authenticity Who Are Predominately Swing I and Swing II Voters? Swing I Suburban Women Socially Progressive Strongly Pro-Choice Family-Centered Values Less Sensitive to Fiscal Issues Less Concerned Cand. Attributes

5 Gore Failed To Woo Late Breaking Swing II Voters The voters Gore was able to attract at the end of the campaign were Swing I late breakers. Bush captured all of the Swing II late breaking voters because they react very strongly to messages about small government, fiscal responsibility, and personal responsibility. 5 How 2000 Swing II Late Breakers Voted Gore0% Bush100% How 2000 Swing II Late Breakers Voted in 1996 Clinton27% Dole45% Perot9% Didnt vote in 9615%

6 Why Are Swing II Voters So Important? They are the difference between tying and winning with a majority. If Gore simply won the 27% of the Swing II late breaking voters that Clinton did, the popular vote would have looked like the following: 6

7 2000 Campaign Messages Campaign Message (Ranked by Much More Likely to Vote) AllSub. Women Swing II Bush - Change the Tone 46 57 Gore - People vs. the Powerful 414432 Gore failed to reach these Swing II voters because his message did not resonate with them. Bushs did. Penn, Schoen & Berland/DLC Nov. 7 2000

8 Values and the Political Landscape Today

9 Situation Analysis Bush Values Shield: Democrats must penetrate the values shield Bush has put around himself. He must not be shown as just in tune with business interests but rather out of step on issues like the economy, budget, healthcare, energy. We should tie the House Republicans around Bush as they are weaker on values measures and up for reelection first. Bipartisan Leadership: Bush took a tremendous but not fatal hit upon the Jeffords departure and there are signs he is beginning to rebound from this. Democrats must take pains to be bipartisan but stand on conviction. Fiscal Responsibility: As the budget surplus wanes, Bush takes an enormous gamble being seen as spending the Medicare Trust Fund. Democrats must argue for a limited but activist federal government and oppose a strangled federal government that leaves everybody fighting for themselves.

10 Values Trump Economy 10 DemocratRepIndepBattle Ground WiredJan. 10, 2000 Economy442637 3927 Decline in Values 527259 69 Which is closer to your view – Economic issues concerning job creation and growth is of greater concern to me right now or Im concerned with the decline in values and the moral fabric of society contributing to the breakup of the family and crime and violence? 10 Penn, Schoen & Berland/NDN 2001

11 Bush Out Values Democrats on Many Attributes 11 For each, please tell me if it applies more to the Democrats in Congress or Bush. BushDemocratsDem Margin Works to increase the choices available to all Americans 375619 Stands up for people like me513912 Works to strengthen our communities395011 Works to increase opportunity for all42486 Works to make it easier to raise my children41432 Does not offer mainstream ideas41 - Represents the special interests4346-3 Shares your values5139-12 Fights for families5239-13 Willing to work with the other party5336-17 Offers new ideas5434-20 Stands up for what they believe5433-21 Demands responsibility5829-29 Honest5222-30 Promotes moral values6624-42 Penn, Schoen & Berland/NDN 2001

12 Values are indexed by attitudes towards homosexuality, sex before marriage, belief in God, pornography, sanctity of marriage, and importance of religion The lower scores were given to the responses less tied to traditional religious attitudes. Congressional Ballot by VALUES INDEX 12 Whites Only 12

13 2002 Electoral Targets on Values

14 How do we reach a Democratic electoral majority? Reaching out to Swing I and II Voters Reaching out to family values-oriented voters in border states and suburban swing districts. Reaching out to moderate men who are socially liberal and oppose the right wing of the Republican Party but who are economically conservative. Cultivating our Growing Base As Hispanics and African American demographics grow, their values must be Democratic values. Electoral Targets Overview

15 DLC Value Statements – Ranked by Strongly Support III Public policies should reinforce marriage, promote family, demand parental responsibility, and discourage out-of-wedlock births. 3959 Preventing crime and punishing criminals means Americas justice system should be rooted in and responsive to its communities. 4253 American citizenship entails responsibilities as well as rights, citizens should give something back to their communities and their country. 4752 Governments proper role in the New Economy is to equip working Americans with new tools for economic success and security. 3447 Fiscal discipline is fundamental to sustained economic growth as well as responsible government. 3044 Americans must have access to health insurance in a system that balances governmental and individual responsibility. 5325 Swing I and Swing II Values

16 Growth of Hispanic Population Makes Them A Powerful Political Force % Hispanic Voters of the Overall American Electorate *2050 is Total Population Estimate YearDem Cand. Rep Cand. 20006235 19967221 19946040 19926125 19846337 VNS DataUS Census Data

17 Hispanics Are More Satisfied With The Country Recent Gallup polling shows Hispanics as satisfied with the country as Whites. Blacks are overall negative by 20 points. 17 Gallup, June 2001

18 DLC Value Statements – Ranked by Strongly Support Hispanics Americans must have access to health insurance in a system that balances governmental and individual responsibility. 66 Governments proper role in the New Economy is to equip working Americans with new tools for economic success and security. 56 Preventing crime and punishing criminals means Americas justice system should be rooted in and responsive to its communities. 52 Private sector creates prosperity and jobs and the govt should help assure that everyone has the opportunity to share in that prosperity. 52 Public policies should reinforce marriage, promote family, demand parental responsibility, and discourage out-of-wedlock births. 47 Hispanics Values

19 Values Agenda For 2002

20 20 For each please tell me if it would make you more or less favorable towards Democrats in Congress if they proposed it. Ranked by D+I-R D+I-R Expand access to health insurance so that all low-income children and their parents are covered. 112 Address a national shortage of nurses by increasing federal subsidies for nursing education, and banning mandatory overtime for nurses. 112 Having our schools teach good citizenship and strong character education. 108 Strengthening child support enforcement and requiring work from fathers who owe child support. 99 Invest and help the private sector use technology to strengthen traditional industries - such as auto production and building trades. This way, the new economy innovations can help industrial businesses grow and create jobs. 98 Tripling enforcement of food inspections to protect against mad cow disease and foot and mouth disease among livestock. 97 Penn, Schoen & Berland Ass. April 16, 2001 Democratic Proposals

21 Valuing Fiscal Responsibility - We must preserve a balanced budget, make sure the debt is paid down or use a trigger and government must become more efficient and flexible. Expanding Americas Econ. Opportunities – Economic development initiatives for rural areas and workers. Meeting Americas Healthcare Needs – Adding prescription drugs, PBOR, low-income parents expansion. Adopting a New Energy Policy – Emphasizing technology to end dependence on foreign energy sources. Valuing Personal Responsibility - Government will do its part if citizens do theirs. Fatherhood, child support and gun safety, etc. Valuing Tolerance and Doing What is Right. We stand for hate crimes bill, min. wage, equal pay, privacy, employer discrimination, genetic discrimination, mental health. Preparing Americans for Retirement. Social Security, Medicare, IRAs, pensions/401Ks. Democratic Values Agenda


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