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2003 DLC National Conversation Mark J. Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates July 28, 2003.

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Presentation on theme: "2003 DLC National Conversation Mark J. Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates July 28, 2003."— Presentation transcript:

1 2003 DLC National Conversation Mark J. Penn Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates July 28, 2003

2 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Methodology Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates conducted 1,225 telephone interviews of likely voters between June 29 and July 1, The margin of error is ±2.8% for the entire sample, and higher for subgroups.Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates conducted 1,225 telephone interviews of likely voters between June 29 and July 1, The margin of error is ±2.8% for the entire sample, and higher for subgroups.

3 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Key Findings Bush is vulnerable if Democrats are able to reach out to growing segments of electorate. Bush is vulnerable if Democrats are able to reach out to growing segments of electorate. Democrats will have to conquer the security gap as the polling shows it remains a wide chasm between Democrats and GOP. Democrats will have to conquer the security gap as the polling shows it remains a wide chasm between Democrats and GOP. Voters on the whole have mixed impressions of the Democratic Party. Voters on the whole have mixed impressions of the Democratic Party. Key electoral voter targets and even Democratic voters show a higher level of confidence in moderate Democrats than in liberal Democrats. Key electoral voter targets and even Democratic voters show a higher level of confidence in moderate Democrats than in liberal Democrats. The underlying values of the DLC draw support among liberals and key swing voter targets. The underlying values of the DLC draw support among liberals and key swing voter targets.

4 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Mood of the Country

5 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Direction of Country Do you think that things in the country are generally headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

6 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Direction of Economy Do you think our economy is on the right track or off on the wrong track?

7 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates President Bush

8 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates George W. Bush Job Approval/Favorability Approve/Disapprove MenWomenDemRepIndy 69/3061/3836/6395/564/33 Favorable/UnfavorableMenWomenDemRepIndy 69/3063/3637/6296/466/33

9 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Bush Generic Reelect Do you think President Bush deserves to be reelected or is it time to give somebody else a chance? Reelected/Somebody Else MenWomenDemRepIndy 52/3843/4614/7486/743/45

10 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Evaluating President Bush Does this make you more or less favorable to President Bush? (More/Less Favorable) All Much Less Fav. All More/ Less Fav. Swing Men Swing Women During the Bush presidency, we have lost almost three million jobs, Americans have lost trillions in the stock market, health-care costs are spiraling out of control, and budget deficits are exploding. 3732/5631/5732/59 President Bush promised under his education plan "no child gets left behind," but his budget is leaving many children behind. He proposed the smallest increase for education in seven years at a time when states, cities and towns are struggling to find money for schools. 3731/6030/5730/59 President Bush has said he wants to put money in the pockets of all Americans but his recent tax cut left out 8 million working class people. 3633/5931/5822/65

11 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Does this make you more or less favorable to President Bush? (More/Less Favorable) All Much Less Fav. All More/ Less Fav. Swing Men Swing Women Since President Bush took office, we have lost over 2 million jobs, consumer confidence is the lowest it has been in a decade, and the stock market has yet to recover. All President Bush can propose is irresponsible tax cuts, which will have no impact on improving the economy or creating jobs, but will lead to chronic budget deficits. 3532/5732/6430/56 President Bush told us he was a moderate and a new and compassionate kind of conservative. But Bush has sided with his ultra-conservative base against the interests of mainstream America, pursuing an economic policy that has put millions of Americans back into poverty. 3531/5829/6222/63 President Bush is threatening the quality of our nations air, water and quality of life. He has refused to deal with global warming, the need for new and diversified energy sources, and health-threatening pollution. 3429/6019/7125/60 Evaluating Bush II

12 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates State of the Democratic Party Today

13 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates National Election Studies, University of Michigan, 2001 Current Polling 26% 33% 38% 25% 28% 47% Party ID Trends Since 50s

14 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Party ID and Race Party Identification by Race White White Men White Women BlackHispanic Democrat Republican Independent

15 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Party Ideology

16 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Ideology of Party Members

17 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Democratic Ideology Views of Liberal & Moderate Dems by Democrats Liberal Democrat Moderate Democrat Very Favorable2634

18 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Republican Ideology Views of Conservative & Moderate Reps by Republicans Conservative Republican Moderate Republican Very Favorable4127

19 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Democratic Confidence on Issues by Ideology Would you have more confidence in a conservative Republican, moderate Republican, moderate Democrat or a liberal Democrat to handle the issue? Democrats Today1998 Mod.DemLib.DemMod.DemLib.Dem Preserving Medicare and SS for the future Helping families raise their children with good values Crime and violence Increasing economic growth and opportunity Finding good jobs Keeping government spending under control The need for better and safer schools High taxes

20 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Voting Ideology Would you be most likely to vote for a candidate who was liberal, moderate, or conservative?

21 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Democratic Party Electoral Targets

22 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Party ID by Group-Dem Advantage Which party has the best programs for each group of Americans? % of Americans who say they are part of this group All (% Saying Democrat Minus % Saying Republican) Ranked by Dem Performance Labor union member2443 Gays443 The working poor2941 African-Americans1641 Unemployed1429 Single women2326 Blue collar workers4023 Hispanics1022 Working women3820 Senior citizens3115 City dwellers3712 College students2412 Farmers1612 Parents with children6510 Middle class Americans898 Married women367

23 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Party ID by Group-GOP Advantage Which party has the best programs for each group of Americans? % of Americans who say they are part of this group All (% Saying Democrat Minus % Saying Republican) Ranked by Dem Performance Small business owners25-5 Lawyers5-7 Veterans24-10 Married Men35-10 Suburbanites47-15 Professionals59-21 White collar workers43-29 Military personnel / Soldiers22-37 Gun owners38-39

24 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Party Attitudes by Age White Voters Congressional Horse Race Democratic Party Fav/Unfav Republican Party Fav/Unfav Men All27/4646/5068/ /4263/3678/ /5942/5473/ /4841/5770/ /4548/4764/ /3751/3855/36 Women All38/3954/3959/ /4166/3068/ /4448/4367/ /4650/4163/ /3155/3856/ /3559/3850/41 Among Whites

25 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Horserace by Income Congressional Horserace Among Whites by Income DemocratRepublican All White3342 <20K White K White K White K White K-100K White K White K+ White975 Among Whites

26 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Marriage and Child Rearing on Party Attitudes Views of the Party Single with Kids at Home Single Female Retired Married Without Kids at Home Male Retired Empty Nester Married with Kids at Home Democratic Party Favorability Advantage Democratic Party Fav/Unfav 79/1267/2854/3957/3855/3652/4450/46 Republican Party Fav/Unfav 39/5651/4448/4453/4156/3762/3669/28 Conservative Republican Fav/Unfav 41/4942/5044/4252/3964/2951/3960/33 Moderate Republican Fav/Unfav 44/4557/3552/3656/3465/2964/2769/23 Moderate Democrat Fav/Unfav 87/969/2154/2960/2865/2869/2161/29 Liberal Democrat Fav/Unfav 68/2354/3840/4540/5038/5842/4931/61

27 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Key Voter Targets on Congressional HR Demographics Generic Horserace Question (Democrat/Republican) Dem Margin All40/37%+3 Married Men29/45-16 Married Women40/41 Independent Men30/300 Senior Men37/35+2 Independent Women37/24+13 Senior Women46/33+13

28 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Democratic Party Issues and Perceptions

29 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Issue Importance How important is this issue? (% Extremely Important) AllFemaleMale Married w/ Kids at Home Seniors Education The economy and jobs War on Terrorism Health care Family values / Ethics Social Security / Medicare National security Poverty and homelessness Homeland security Cost of prescription drugs Balancing the budget Balancing work and family life Fighting Crime Taxes

30 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates The Security Gap Who does a better job on this issue? (% Democrat minus % Republican) (% Democrat minus % Republican)AllFemaleMale Married w/ Kids at Home Seniors65+ Poverty and homelessness The environment Health care and health insurance Education Social Security / Medicare Cost of prescription drugs The economy and jobs Family values / Ethics Taxes Foreign Policy Fighting Crime War on Terrorism Iraq Homeland security /America safe National security

31 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Issue Importance and Party Trust Dems Better Reps Better Importance Democratic Margin -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent saying "Extremely Important" Iraq The economy and jobs Health care and health insurance Education Social Security / Medicare Cost of prescription drugs War on Terrorism Foreign Policy Homeland security / Keeping America Safe Fighting Crime Balancing the budget / Budget Deficits Taxes Welfare reform Poverty and homelessness Environment Campaign finance reform Immigration The size of the federal government Abortion Family values / Ethics Balancing work and family life Corporate scandals National security 10%20%30%40%50% Stock Market decline

32 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Perceptions of the Democratic Party Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement. (Agree/Disagree) All (Strongly Agree) All Swing Men Swing Women Married with Kids at Home The Democratic Party stands for big govt 3555/3962/3650/3963/33 The Democratic Party is too liberal 3455/4062/3947/4262/34 The Democratic Party is too beholden to special interest groups 3367/2477/1763/2074/21 The Democratic Party is the party of ordinary people. 3259/3854/4260/3449/48 The Dem Party does not reflect my values 3054/4358/3547/5254/41 The Democratic Party is not tough enough to take on the problem of natl security… 2948/4846/4742/5048/49

33 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Perceptions Cont. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement. (Agree/Disagree) All (Strongly Agree) All Swing Men Swing Women Married with Kids at Home The Democratic Party wants to raise taxes higher than I think they should be 2946/4651/4551/3850/43 The Democratic Party is out of touch with mainstream America 2754/4369/3148/4360/39 The Democratic Party is the party of economic growth and opportunity. 2457/3753/4352/3349/47 The Dem. Party understands the future. 2257/3855/4263/3057/40 The Dem. Party is fiscally responsible 2256/3750/4461/2858/37 The Democratic Party does not respect the role of private business in the economy 1844/4847/4740/4845/50 The Democratic Party has a clear vision of where to lead this country 1745/4937/5842/4745/53

34 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates The New Democrat Agenda

35 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates The New Democrat Agenda After each statement, please tell me whether you strongly support it, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it. (Strongly Support) All Swing Male Swing Female Liberal Democrats Seniors American citizenship entails responsibilities as well as rights, citizens should give something back to their communities and their country The United States must maintain a strong, technologically superior defense to protect our interests and values Preventing crime and punishing criminals means Americas justice system should be rooted in and responsive to its communities Americans must have access to health insurance in a system that balances governmental and individual responsibility We ought to expand opportunity, not government The amount of taxes Americans pay should be based on the amount of money they earn. This is the only fair way to pay for government Fiscal discipline is fundamental to sustained economic growth as well as responsible government

36 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates After each statement, please tell me whether you strongly support it, somewhat support it, somewhat oppose it, or strongly oppose it. (Strongly Support) All Swing Male Swing Female Liberal Democrats Seniors The governments role is to stimulate economic innovation and growth to ensure everyone can share in Americas prosperity and that America has a strong and growing middle-class Public policies should reinforce marriage, promote family, demand parental responsibility, and discourage out-of-wedlock births Private sector creates prosperity and jobs and the government should help assure that everyone has the opportunity to share in that prosperity America needs a new social compact that requires and rewards work for public assistance and no family with a full-time worker will be in poverty Governments proper role in the New Economy is to equip working Americans with new tools for economic success and security America needs a foreign policy that is committed to the bold exercise of U.S. leadership to foster peace, prosperity, and democracy throughout the world The New Democrat Agenda

37 Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Support for the New Democrat Agenda If a Democratic candidate stood for these statements would you be more/less likely to vote for that candidate? Swing Men Swing Women Republicans Liberal Democrats 89/780/1363/3091/6


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