1. The Critical Path Energy System Decarbonization Stephen Stretton Research Associate, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) http://www.4cmr.org Founder, Cambridge Zero Carbon Society http://www.zerocarbonnow.org 2 nd June 2009

2. 2 of 15 Contents Energy System Decarbonization Why? Terminology Carbon Rough Numbers for UK (Physics) Land Cost Rough Numbers for UK (Economics) The Critical Path

3. 3 of 15 Why?

4. Why? Energy demand is rising rapidly * In agreement with the recommendations from the Royal Commission for Environmental Pollution Sources: Reference Scenario, IEA (2004) World Energy Outlook; A1T Scenario IEA (2003) Energy to 2050 Notes All energy (not just electricity) is expressed in terms of GigaWatts (GW)*. 1 Gigawatt = 0.75 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per year = 8.8 Terawatt-Hours per Year 1 Gigawatt is the usual size of a nuclear power station or large coal power plant

5. 5 of 15 World Energy Consumption By Fuel

6. 6 of 15 World Electricity By Fuel Type

7. 7 of 15 Why?

8. 8 of 15 Carbon: Terminology Carbon Emissions Per Person Per Year (tonnes CO 2 eq) High Carbon~10 Lower Carbon4 Low Carbon2 Ultra-low Carbon1 Zero Carbon0 Negative Carbon<0 *Imports of embodied energy not included

9. 9 of 15 Technology: Terminology TechnologyLCA gCO 2 eq/kwh High CarbonCoal~1000 Lower Carbon Gas~400 Low CarbonCCS~150 Ultra-low Carbon Renewables & Nuclear?~5 to ~50 Zero Carbon(Decarbonize Lifecycle Costs)~0 Negative Carbon Reforestation Biomass with CCS Air capture <0

10. 10 of 15 Source: Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology Carbon: All Electricity Technologies

11. 11 of 15 CSD ‘Low- Carbon’ Tech.

12. 12 of 15 Physics Rough Numbers TotalPer Person Carbon Emissions600million tCO 2 /yr + Imports 10 tCO 2 /yr Energy Consumption 300GW5kW Electricity Consumption ~45GW1kW

13. 13 of 15 Land Energy Source Density MW avg /km 2 Biomass~0.5 Wind~2-3 CSP~15 See www.withouthotair.com

14. 14 of 15 Do Everything… to Save the Planet!

15. 15 of 15 Construction Costs Not adjusted for load factor – Study Data (2000-6)

16. 16 of 15 Unit Cost

17. 17 of 15 Unit Costs p per kWh

18. 18 of 15 Economics Numbers TotalPer Person GDP£1.2trillion/yr£20,000/yr Public Spending£500billion/yr£8,000/yr Market Value of Houses etc £7trillion£100,000 National Debt£700billion£12,000 Other Liabilities Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks ~£500billion? £70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn £9,000

19. 19 of 15 Fiscal Reform 1.Tax ‘bads’ 2.Remove tax on ‘goods’ 3.Tax ‘rent’ Fossil fuels are both a ‘bad’ and a ‘rent’ So “change VAT to CAT”

20. 20 of 15 Investment Cost & Tax Revenue UK needs 300GW to sustain current energy use. 1GW costs ~£2bn. £600bn cost = 50% of one year’s GDP –UK energy spend ~£100bn on energy each year –Cost of Trident £40bn total £100/tCO2 (10p/kgCO 2 ) would –Add £50 to a barrel of oil –4p/kWh on gas –10p/kWh on coal –23p/litre on petrol –Raise £60bn/yr initially –£1000 citizens income or replace VAT

21. 21 of 15 Discussion Points How do we scale up renewable R&D by a large factor & coordinate internationally? How fast can we build a super-grid with CSP? Does doing one technology prevent us from doing another? Are possible supply chain shortages ‘across’ technologies or ‘within’ technologies If the cost of high and low carbon are the same, is there any financial limit on what we can do? Does tackling climate change then cost anything at all? If new technology costs more, is there a limited ‘pot’ of subsidy to be allocated to most promising technology? Can ‘inflexible’ technologies promote a path to electric-car charging, leading to further intermittent renewable power being easily integrated? Market Incentives (19 th Century Railways) or State Intervention (20 th Century Wars) or Both?

22. 22 of 15 Carbonomics meets Freakonomics… TotalPer Person Carbon Emissions600million tCO2/yr + Imports10 tCO2/yr Energy Consumption300GW5kW Electricity Consumption ~50GW1kW Land Area?? GDP£1.2trillion/yr£20,000/yr Public Spending£500billion/yr Market Value of Houses etc £7trillion£100,000 National Debt£700billion£12,000 Other Liabilities Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks ~£500billion? £70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn £9,000

23. 23 of 15 Conclusions: The Critical Path 1.Public Understanding and Proposed Policy 2.Skills and Capacity Building 3.Govt Guarantee Carbon & Electricity Prices 4.Secure Finance e.g. with ‘Climate Bonds’ 5.Start Energy Efficiency Rollout 6.Build Energy Infrastructure 7.Fiscal Reform: ‘VAT to CAT’ 8.Strategy transfer around the world 9.Switch Transportation 10.Complete Decarbonization of Britain and other countries 11.Reforest the world 12.Permanently avoid fossil fuel extraction

24. 24 of 15 Thanks for your attention! Contact me: Stephen Stretton sjs53@cam.ac.uk Links: http://www.4cmr.org http://www.withouthotair.com http://www.zerocarbonnow.org