Presentation on theme: "Regional Programme for Economic Statistics: Capacity Screening Results"— Presentation transcript:
1 Regional Programme for Economic Statistics: Capacity Screening Results Zeynep Orhun Girard Regional Seminar on Developing a Programme for the Implementation of the 2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics in the ECO member countries Ankara, Turkey September 2013
2 We all know that economic policy decisions are made with incomplete and unreliable information in many countries in Asia and the Pacific.And the recent Capacity Screening supports this statement.
3 About Capacity Screening Developed by the Steering Group as a rapid assessment tool based on RPES and Core SetProvides a baseline for the implementation of the Core Set of Economic Statistics48 out of 58 ESCAP member countries responded (March-May 2013)Analysis is done at the regional and sub-regional levels. Results are presented in national summary sheets for each respondent2 advocacy reports (for development partners and countries) are in preparationThe 48 countries correspond to 97 per cent of the total regional GDP and to 93 per cent of the population.10 non-respondents. 5 of them are ECO members: Afghanistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.Would be nice to verify the results for the participating countries here based on the summary sheets.
4 Structure of Capacity Screening RPES Technical Cooperation (existing capacity building agreements and interest)Institutional setting (legislation, planning, national statistical coordination and dissemination and advocacy for economic statistics)Information technology and Human ResourcesStatistical infrastructure (quality assurance, metadata, BR, data collection instrumentsAvailability of Core Set of Economic Statistics (based on the seven components)
5 Regional facts from the Capacity Screening 15 countries don’t have a centralised BR21 countries don’t have a Quality Assessment Framework available and used to monitor quality of economic statistics outputs15 countries feel they have adequate HR to produce and disseminate the Core Set of Economic Statistics23 countries carry out an economic census20 countries produce quarterly GDP (e)10 countries produce monthly commodity price index13 countries produce annual productivity measures23 countries produce annual integrated national accounts7 countries are able to produce indicators related to natural resourcesCapacity Screening responses received as of May 2013.48 countries responded to the Capacity Screening questionnaire.
6 What about ECO respondents? Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkey responded4 respondents considered upper middle income countries and one as low income country by the WBPakistan and Turkey are on Steering Group for RPES and 2 out of remaining 3 countries are interested in participating in RPES, as a provider or receiver of technical assistance
7 Statistical law and strategy LegislationPrinciples of confidentiality, transparency and independence from political pressures are covered in the statistical laws of all countries3 countries have plans for revising their statistical law4 countries have statistical strategic plan; one is in the process of designingPakistan is designing a national statistical strategy
8 National statistical coordination Graph includes Russian Federation.Pakistan and Tajikistan have a decentralized system.Turkey reported their system to be semi-centralized.“Centralized” means that all indicators are compiled by the NSO, with BoP compiled by the Central Bank. “Semi-centralized” means that most indicators are compiled by the NSO, BoP by Central Bank, and some indicators are compiled by other agencies, and “decentralized” means that some are compiled by the NSO, BoP by Central Bank, and some by other agencies.Azerbaijan answered No to the other coordination questions.All but one country stated that the distribution of responsibilities among agencies was clear and that there are plans of improving coordination
9 Dissemination and advocacy All countries responded:Dissemination procedures in place and regular assistance to users availableOngoing activities to improve awareness and use economic statistics from official sourcesOngoing activities to build analytical/research capacities, develop data analysis methodologies targeting usersSufficient awareness among users of relevance of statistics for economic policySeminars regularly organized by producers of economic statistics
10 IT and human resourcesAll but one country reported that IT and human resources were adequate for producing the Core Set of Economic StatisticsStaff manuals and guidelines are available for internal use in all countriesInternal processes documented for referencing and use by new staff in all countriesPakistan and Turkey have not conducted a recent skill needs assessment.
11 Statistical infrastructure All countries provide metadata in statistical releasesAll but 2 countries have a centralized metadata repository and implement a metadata format standardOnly 2 countries implement a metadata quality standardIn 3 countries the use of BR is shared by a number of agenciesNOE and informal economy not in key data collections in 2 countriesAll participate in ICPKazakhstan and Turkey answered no to metadata repository and format standardKazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkey do not implement a metadata quality standardKazakhstan and Turkey do not cover NOE and informal economy in design of key data collections
12 Graph includes Russian Federation. The collections from the first four sub-sections are conducted by every country while the collection from 4.9, enterprise/establishment survey, is not conducted by Pakistan. Frequencies of collection for these five indicators are shown in Figure 2. Tajikistan’s “Other” response for Labour Force Survey frequency: July-August 2004 and June-July 2009
14 Graph includes Russian Federation. Economic census, is not conducted by Kazakhstan or the Russian Federation while the frequency of collection for the agricultural census was not reported by Kazakhstan.
15 Figure 5 measures the timeliness (in months) of reporting of collections in sub-sections 4.9–4.12. Aside from the population census, each question had three omissions.Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Russia enterprise/establishment census and economic census. The latter is not conducted by Kazakhstan and Russia.Kazkahstan, Russia, Tajikistan for agricultural census.
16 Standards/Classifications All countries implement 1993 SNA and have plans to update to 2008 SNATajikistan ISIC Rev.2, Turkey ISIC Rev.3, and Pakistan ISIC Rev.4Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan NACE Rev. 2, aligned with ISIC Rev.4Tajikistan and Turkey plan to update to CPC Ver.2 from a CIS classification and CPC Ver.1.0Kazakhstan has a national classification based on CPA 2008Pakistan uses CPC Ver.2All countries use COICOP and COFOG
17 Table 11: Prices and Costs Desired M B A U X Consumer price index (CPI)Quarterly6Producer price index (PPI)Commodity price indexMonthly123External merchandise trade price indicesWages / Earnings dataLabour costs index / Wage indexIncludes Russian Federation.The desired frequencies are specified based on SDDS, GDDS and ECB requirements.M = number of countries meeting or exceeding the minimum frequency; B = number of countries regularly collecting the indicator but at a rate below the minimum frequency; A = number of countries reporting ad-hoc collection; O = number of countries reporting other rates of collection; U = number of countries reporting that the item is unavailable; X = number of countries leaving responses blank.Only Azerbaijan met the standard for commodity price index. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan were the only two to meet the standard for external merchandise trade price indices, while the standard for the last indicator in Table 11 was met by Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
18 Table 12: Demand and Output Desired M B A O U X GDP (Production)Quarterly51GDP (Expenditure)42External Trade – MerchandiseMonthly6External Trade – ServicesShort-term Indicators – Industry Output3Short-term Indicators – Services OutputShort-term Indicators – Consumer DemandShort-term Indicators – Fixed InvestmentShort-term Indicators – InventoriesEconomy structure statisticsEvery 5 yearsProductivityAnnuallyPakistan reported annual collection of both GDP indicators while Tajikistan did so for the second one and the Russian Federation reported annual collection of the external trade of services indicator. All short-term indicators were omitted by Turkey, and the last two indicators in Table 12 were both omitted by the Russian Federation and Turkey. All “Ad-Hoc” responses were given by Kazakhstan.
19 Table 13: Income and Wealth Desired M B A O U X Integrated National AccountsAnnually312Institutional Sector AccountsBalance of Payments (BOP)Quarterly6International Investment Position (IIP)5External debtIncome distributionEvery 5 years4Turkey omitted the first two as well as the last indicator in Table 13, while Kazakhstan was the only country to meet standards on all six indicators.
20 Table 14: Money, Labour and Government DesiredMBAUXAssets/liabilities of depository corporationsMonthly3Broad money and credit aggregates12Interest rate statistics5General government operationsQuarterlyGeneral government debtLabour supply and demandAnnually4Hours workedNatural resourcesThe first two indicators in Table 14 were omitted the Russian Federation and Turkey, while Turkey also omitted each of the last three. Kazakhstan and Pakistan both met standards on each of the first five indicators, and Kazakhstan was the only country to report any measurement of natural resources.
21 To concludeHalf of ECO member countries have not responded so the picture remains partialEvery country has weaknesses and strengthsThere are subjective questions, e.g. adequacy of IT and HRThe Core Set information gives us a broad picture of where things are atIn planning activities other assessments such as the GA will be used to supplement the information with further detail