1. RAPID Building a Future of Quality
A Happy People, A Happy City of Ilorin
This booklet focuses on efforts to build a high quality future for the people of Ilorin city, and ensure that the people and city are happy.

2. Urbanization in Nigeria
Ilorin Population Dynamics
Population and Development: The Crucial Links
This presentation has four sections:
1. Urbanization in Nigeria;
2. Ilorin population dynamics;
3. Population and development: their crucial linkages; and
4. What can we do?
What Can We Do?

3. Urbanization in Nigeria
Let us start by examining Ilorin’s urbanization in the broader context of urbanization in Nigeria.
Photo by Ryan Paetzold

4. Nigeria Urban/Rural Population
After 2010, Nigeria became more urban than rural
Urban Population
Rural Population
International statistics show that Nigeria experienced and is till experiencing one of the fastest rates of urbanization in the world. The graph above depicts the actual and projected growth of Nigeria’s urban and rural populations with Nigeria’s urban population almost doubling the rural population In 1950, Nigeria had over 30M rural population but less than 4M urban population. Over the years, Nigeria’s rural and urban populations continued to grow, but after 1990, the rural population grew more slowly, whereas urban growth became very rapid. In 2005, Nigeria’s rural population numbered over 75M compared to 65M urban population. By 2010, the urban and rural populations were nearly equal. It is projected that by 2015, three years from now, Nigeria’s urban population will be almost 94M while the rural population will be around 82M. More people will be living in Nigeria’s cities and the country’s rapid urbanization rate is expected to continue into the future.
World Population Prospects 2009

5. Nigeria has a Vision for Urban Development
The National Urban Development Policy calls for:
Providing adequate shelter for all
Poverty reduction and economic empowerment
Ensuring environmental sustainability
Good governance and development
“The Urbanization process is irreversible in Nigeria and must
therefore be turned into opportunities for growth”
Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Nigeria
2005 presentation
Nigeria’s National Urban Development Policy calls for
• Providing adequate shelter for all
• Poverty reduction and economic empowerment
• Ensuring environmental sustainability
• Good governance and socio-economic development
As the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development emphasized, the urbanization process is irreversible. Nigerians must turn urbanization and its challenges into opportunities for growth.

6. However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.
One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities. This creates a situation where the government is unable to: - Maintain and expand infrastructure - Provide adequate, high quality social services - Create an environment that is conducive to economic development
However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.
One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities.
Such rapid growth has created a situation where the government is unable to:
Maintain and expand much needed physical infrastructure
Provide adequate, high quality social services for various sectors of the population
Create the environment that is conducive for economic development
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

7. Ilorin’s Population Dynamics
Let us now examine closely Ilorin’s population characteristics.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

8. Let’s Focus on 5 Urban Areas
Ilorin East
Ilorin South
Ilorin West
Irepodun
Offa
For this presentation, whenever I say Ilorin city, I am referring specifically to the combined information of these 5 LGAs: Ilorin East, Ilorin South, Ilorin West, Irepodun and Offa.

9. Current Situation of Ilorin
1.1 million total population of the 5 LGAs
On average, each woman has more than 4 children
27% of married women use a modern method of family planning
At present, the five focus urban LGAs of Ilorin have a combined total population of 1.1 million. On average, each woman in Ilorin city has given birth to more than 4 children in her lifetime (total fertility rate is 4.2 children per woman). An estimated 27% of currently married women are using a modern method of family planning. Every year at present, as many as 400 Ilorin mothers die due to pregnancy-related reasons.
Almost 400 maternal deaths per year
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

10. Ilorin Population Structure
2011 Population of Ilorin, projected using the 2006 census
Ilorin has a young population
There are more people in the
non-working ages (younger
than 15 yrs and those 65 yrs and over) than people in the
working ages (15-64 yrs)
Male
Female
Because information on the age and sex composition at the LGA level is not readily available, we applied the age and sex percentage distribution of the state to the five focus LGAs of Ilorin in order to obtain numbers by age and sex.
Ilorin has a young population, with 42% of the entire population under 15 years of age, and very large segments of the youth population concentrated in the ages 5-9 and Despite more older children (ages 5-14 yrs), even the population in the youngest age group (0-4) is much larger than the population in ages 15-19, or 20-24, or any of the older adult ages. Overall, Ilorin has more people in the non-working ages (younger than 15 years + 65 years and older) than in the working ages
42% of population is under age 15 10 10

11. Population & Development
Let us now look at the implications of Ilorin’s population characteristics on development.
Photo by lisago

12. Population and Economic Development are Linked
A much larger working age population compared to the population in young dependent ages was a key factor in the Asian development miracle.
As families became smaller, dependency declined even more.
Greater emphasis on population quality than quantity meant increased investments by the state
More and better educational opportunities emerged
Greater productivity
Investment in modern agriculture
Studies all over the world show that population and economic development are linked. Because fertility rates had been declining, a much larger working age population compared to the population in the young dependent ages emerged. This was a key factor in the Asian development miracle, or what the “Asian tigers” experienced.
As families became even smaller, the percentage of the population in the young dependent ages declined, and the percentage of the population in the working ages grew even larger, resulting in significant declines in dependency.
The governments of the Asian tigers also emphasized population quality rather than quantity, and Asian state leaders increased investments to improve the quality of the population.
More and better educational opportunities emerged from increased government investments on education.
More and better educated working force meant greater productivity that allowed even more economic investments.
More investments included investments in modernizing agriculture, using modern equipment and technology along with fewer but skilled agricultural workers.
RAPID: Computer Programs for Examining the Socioeconomic Impacts of Population Growth
Photo by Shiraz Chakera

13. A key component to the success of Asian tigers: investment in family planning
Increased investments in family planning programs and services
Improved access and increased use of modern contraceptives
Contributed to improved quality of life and escalated economic development
A key component of the success of the Asian tigers was investment in family planning. Family planning investments led to improved access and increased use of modern contraceptives in these Asian countries. As a result, family planning contributed to improved quality of life and rapid escalation of the economic development of the Asian tigers.
Asian tigers
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

14. Modern Contraceptive Use
Percentage of Women using Modern Contraceptives
The graph shows that the percentage of currently married women using modern contraceptives in Ilorin (27%) is only slightly higher than the corresponding figure for urban Nigeria (26%). What is also notable is that the levels of modern contraceptive use for Ilorin city and that of urban Nigeria are much lower than national-level percentages of women using modern contraceptive methods in Jordan (42%), Morocco (55%), Indonesia (57%) and Thailand (80%).
NUHRI scenario projects that contraceptive prevalence will increase from 26% in 2011 to 65% in In contrast, the base scenario assumes that contraceptive prevalence will increase from 26% in 2011 to 48% in 2035.
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010 and DHS Surveys

15. Couples in Ilorin want to Plan their Births
Only 1 in 5 married women want a child in the next 2 years
Only 1 in 6 married men want a child in the next 2 years
20% of married men and women do not want any additional children
More than half of married women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks
What is significant, however, is that married couples of Ilorin want to plan their births. This was clearly indicated by data from the Measurement Learning and Evaluation survey conducted in 2011:
Only 1 out of every 5 married women ages want a child in the next 2 years.
Only 1 out of every 6 married men want a child in the next 2 years.
20% of married men and women do not want any additional children
More than 50% of currently married women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks
Clearly, married women and men of the city of Ilorin want to plan their childbearing. They need access to family planning services!
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

16. Ilorin has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its population
2 Potential Futures:
Scenario 1: Maintain Current Trends:
What if things continued as they are now?
Scenario 2: Investment in Family Planning: What will happen if there is an investment in family planning and unmet need is met?
Ilorin has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its urban population.
We can illustrate this by looking at the potential future scenarios.
Scenario 1 answers the question “What if things continued into the future as they did before and now?” This is also called the base (or reference) scenario. This scenario uses past trends in contraceptive prevalence increase in the urban areas of Nigeria based on the 1999 to 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. These national demographic surveys showed an average of 1.06 percentage point increase in contraceptive prevalence in the urban areas of Nigeria between 1999 and 2008.
Scenario 2 answers the question: What will happen if there is improved investment in family planning and unmet need is met?

17. to increase modern family planning use by
Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) is a Project that is Supporting Quality Family Planning in 4 Nigerian Cities:
Ilorin
Abuja FCT
Ibadan
Kaduna
NURHI aims
to increase modern family planning use by
20 percentage points in each city by providing high quality services that couples can access.
NURHI, or the Nigeria Urban Reproductive Health Initiative, is a project implemented by a consortium led by John Hopkins University, other international development agencies and Nigerian organizations in partnership with local government health departments. NURHI is supporting the provision of accessible and high-quality family planning services in four Nigerian cities: Ilorin, Abuja FCT, Ibadan and Kaduna. NURHI aims to increase modern family planning use by 20 percentage points in each city through the provision of high quality services that couples can access.
Photo by Shiraz Chakera

18. Population Projection Scenarios
Projected Total Populations in 5 Ilorin LGAs
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
Under the Base Scenario wherein contraceptive use in the five Ilorin urban areas will increase gradually as they did before, the 1.12 population is projected to continue to increase to 1.84 M in 2035.
Under the NUHRI scenario where contraceptive use increases significantly, the total population of the five Ilorin LGAs will be about 1.63 M in 2035.
The difference in total populations between the base scenario and the NUHRI scenario for Ilorin becomes larger over time. By 2035, the difference in population will exceed 210,000.

19. Health Education Economy Infrastructure
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
Health
Education
Infrastructure
Economy
Let us now examine the development implications of these population projection scenarios on Ilorin’s socio-economic development concerns, more specifically, health, education, infrastructure, and the economy.
Photo by The Gates Foundation
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

20. “All stakeholders need to appreciate the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like housing, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, gender concerns, food security and the security of life and property.”
As we examine the implications of projected population changes on selected social and economic development concerns in Ilorin cities, let us also keep in mind the emphasis placed by Nigeria’s 2004 National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development on the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like health, education and housing.
Nigeria National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development : January 2004

21. Health
Let us now examine the implications of the two future scenarios on the health sector of Ilorin’s urban areas.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

22. “The key challenges to reducing infant mortality include population, declining resources and wide geographic variations.”
Major challenges to reducing maternal mortality include “a dearth of skilled personnel and a shortage of family planning
facilities”.
Nigeria’s MDG Report for 2010 states that reducing infant mortality requires addressing the population challenge, for which the key intervention is family planning. The MDG Report also cites the need to reduce maternal mortality by addressing challenges that include the shortage of skilled health personnel and family planning facilities.
Nigeria Millennium Development Goals: Report 2010

23. Family Planning Reduces Risky Births
Family Planning Acts by Reducing Births in the Following Categories, Called the 4 Too’s:
Too young: women who give birth before age 18
Too old: women who give birth after age 35
Too many: more than 5 births
Too close: births spaced less than 24 months
Studies all over the world show that family planning reduces high-risk births. High risk births refer to the 4 TOOs or births that are:
• Too young – Refers to women who give woman before age 18. This means that these women are so very young and are still developing and growing physically and emotionally.
• Too old – Refers to women who give birth after age 35.
• Too many – Refers to women who have already given birth to many children. This refers to more than 5 births.
• Too close – When a birth occurs too soon after a previous birth. Global studies show that a birth occurring less than 24 months after a previous birth has a high risk of mortality.

24. Percentage of births with any risk factor
Risky Births
Percentage of births with any risk factor
Year
Ilorin base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
2011 64
2015 63 53
2035 57 47
In 2011, approximately 64% of births had one or more of the risk factors (4 Too’s) just cited. The projections demonstrate that the percentage of births with any of the High Risk factors just cited would be higher under the base scenario projection for Ilorin, compared to lower proportions that are high risk under the NUHRI projection. By 2035, the NUHRI scenario would have only about 47% high risk births compared to 57% for the base scenario. High risk births result in maternal and infant deaths and are very expensive to attend to at health facilities.

25. Number of Maternal Deaths Averted
Ilorin Base Projection
363
Ilorin NURHI Projection
While gradual FP increase would help prevent maternal deaths, the number of maternal deaths that would occur in Ilorin cities under the base scenario would still be higher than maternal deaths under the NUHRI scenario with significant increases in modern FP use. Through NUHRI, a cumulative total of 228 maternal deaths can be averted in Ilorin cities in the 4 years between 2011 and The cumulative number of maternal deaths averted between 2011 and 2035 could exceed 2,530, as more and more high-risk pregnancies are prevented from occurring over the 24-year period.

26. Under 5 Deaths Averted 37,767 Under 5 Averted 2011–2035
Ilorin Base Projection
6,775
Ilorin NURHI Projection
4,873
Moreover, the number of deaths occurring to children under 5 in the five Ilorin urban areas would be lower under the NUHRI projection scenario compared to the base scenario. Through increased use of modern contraceptives, a greater number of high-risk pregnancies are prevented from occurring, and as a result, larger numbers of deaths to children under 5 are prevented. As the graph shows, higher modern FP use can avert a cumulative number of nearly 40,000 deaths to children under 5 years of age from 2011 to 2035.

27. Infant Mortality Rate Infant Deaths Averted: 1,867 between 2011-2015
Year
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
2011 75
2015 73 50
2035 60 38
Infant Deaths Averted:
1,867 between
18,133 between
If we focus on infant mortality alone, the difference between the NUHRI and base projection implies nearly 2,000 infant deaths averted in the 4 year period between 2011 and A cumulative number of almost 20,000 infant deaths is averted between 2011 and 2035 because of significant increases in modern contraceptive use under the NUHRI scenario.
Because of family planning and reduced numbers of high risk births, the infant mortality rate will also decline. In 2011, the estimated infant mortality rate was 75 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. By 2035, the infant mortality rate for Ilorin cities would be 38 under the NUHRI projection scenario compared to a much higher 60 IMR under the base projection scenario.

28. Health Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduction in the number of maternal, infant, and child deaths
Increase life expectancy
Freed resources that can be invested in strategies to improve quality and access to essential health services
The projection scenarios for the health sector of the five Ilorin urban areas illustrate the health benefits of investing in modern family planning services, including
Reduction in the numbers of maternal, infant and child deaths.
Increasing life expectancy.
Resources freed up so that these can be invested in strategies and interventions to improve the quality of and access to essential health services.
Reduced strain on health staff and infrastructure.
Reduction in the strain on health staff and infrastructure
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

29. Education Let us now focus on the education sector.
Photo by The Gates Foundation

30. Primary School Aged Children
Children aged 6–11 years old
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
The number of primary school aged children- or children ages 6 to 11 years of age – in the five Ilorin urban areas was estimated to be a little over 195,000 in This number will be about 247,000 under the base scenario projection compared to around 188,000 under the NURHI scenario. The impact of much higher modern FP use under the NURHI projection becomes noticeable starting 2020 and thereafter, with projected numbers of primary school aged children even smaller than current estimated numbers.

31. Primary Teachers Required
WHO standard of 1 teacher to 25 pupils
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
The current standard is 1 teacher for every 25 students. This translates into 6,493 primary teachers required at present. Meeting the same standard in the future will require more than 8,200 primary school teachers in 2035 under the base projection scenario compared to a little less than 6,300 under the NUHRI projection scenario.
Teacher/Student Ratio of 30:1

32. Quality of Primary Teachers
Ilorin needs to increase the number of teachers that are qualified.
As the previous page showed, the number of primary teachers required is much larger under the base scenario compared to fewer numbers under the NUHRI projection scenario. But the figures in this previous page refer only to efforts to meet the increasing numbers of school children – or efforts to accommodate increasing quantities (numbers) of children. The current distribution of primary school teachers by educational background in Ilorin cities is shown in the pie chart. While 63% of primary teachers are graduates with NCE credentials, there is also a need for additional resources to ensure that all primary teachers of Ilorin cities are highly qualified and have graduate or higher educational background and NCE status.
National Bureau of Statistics: Social Statistics in Nigeria 2009

33. National Universal Basic Education Act
Current policy goes beyond universal primary education and has set a target of universal basic education.
Through its National Universal Basic Education Act, Nigeria occupies a unique place among African countries for its ambitious objective of free basic education for all children between the ages of 6-15 years. Thus, the current policy goes beyond universal primary education and sets a higher target of providing universal basic education for the country’s youth.
National Universal Basic Education Act

34. Basic Education Aged Children
Primary and Junior Secondary (Ages 6–15)
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
This objective is assessed in terms of current and projected numbers of basic education-aged children in Ilorin. Children in the basic education age group numbered about 305,000 in 2011 and will reach approximately 395,000 in 2035 under the base scenario. Meeting the national basic education policy will be a challenge for the five focus urban areas of Ilorin especially under the base scenario with larger numbers of children ages 6-15 years compared to smaller numbers under the NURHI scenario.

35. Education Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduction in the strain on teachers and infrastructure
Freed up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the global economy
Assist in meeting the goal of universal basic education
Overall, the education benefits of investing in family planning include:
Reduced strain on teachers and the education infrastructure.
Resources freed up which can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the country’s efforts to be a major participant in the global economy.
Helping Ilorin urban areas to achieve the Education sector goal of universal basic education.
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

36. Infrastructure Let us now turn to the infrastructure sector.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

37. Average household size of 3.8 people
Housing Requirements
Average household size of 3.8 people
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
If we apply the MLE survey figure of 3.8 average household size in Ilorin to the projected total population, we can come up with estimates of housing requirements. At present, housing requirements for the five Ilorin urban areas approximate 296, The base projection scenario will require over 485,000 housing units compared to around 429,000 under the NURHI projection scenario. We are looking here only at the quantity or numbers of houses, and we do not assume anything here about housing quality.
Average Household Size from MLE Baseline 2011

38. Solid Waste Generation
Annual Production of Waste (in kilograms)
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
A study by Babayami ( 2009) estimated that in Ilorin each person generates about 157 kg of solid waste per year. This translates into as much as 176 million kilograms of waste generated in This figure will increase to a total of 289 million kilograms of waste generated in Ilorin in 2035 under the base scenario, compared to 256 million kilograms of waste under the NUHRI scenario. Increasing populations over time mean more solid waste, but the quantity of solid waste that would be produced will be much more under the base scenario.
Photos by: Bonnie NURHI
Source: Babayemi et al., 2009

39. Infrastructure Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduction in the strain on housing requirements
Likely reduction in the percentage of people living in slums or other forms of temporary housing
Reduction in the amount of trash that is generated which will improve the sanitation condition of the city
Investing on improving family planning services, with a defined focus on modern FP, yields benefits in physical infrastructure that include among others:
Reduced strain on housing requirements
Likely lowered numbers and percentages of the population living in temporary housing or in slum areas
Reduced amount of trash that is generated - which in turn will help improve sanitation conditions of the city.
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

40. Economy
Finally, let us look at the implications of the two projection scenarios on the economy.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

41. Number of New Jobs Needed for People Entering the Workforce
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
We can observe the impact of two family planning projection scenarios on the economy through the number of people entering the work force and therefore in need of new jobs . At present, over 15,000 new jobs are needed. The difference between the base projection scenario and the NURHI projection becomes apparent after 15 years or so, around 2030, as higher modern FP use in the NUHRI projection scenario result into smaller numbers of people in the working ages 15 to 64 years compared to larger numbers needing jobs under the base projection scenario. In 2035, the number entering the workforce and needing new jobs can reach 18,000 under the base projection scenario compared to a little less than 12,000 for the NUHRI scenario.
MLE Baseline Survey 2011

42. Number of Child Dependents
Ilorin Base Projection
Ilorin NURHI Projection
At present, over 467,000 comprise the population less than 15 years of age in the five Ilorin urban areas. Thereafter, the projected numbers of child dependents or those in ages 0 to 14 years will be higher under the base scenario projection compared to the NUHRI scenario. In 2035, an estimated 476,000 children is projected for the NUHRI scenario compared to the much larger number of 634,000 children under the base projection scenario. .

43. Economic Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
Reduction in the strain on employment requirements
Likely reduction in the percentage of people in the working ages that are unemployed
Reduction in the number of dependents which will assist families in moving out of poverty
In summary, the economic benefits of investing in family planning in Ilorin’s cities include:
Reduced strain on employment requirements
Likely reduction on the percentage of the population in the working ages that are unemployed.
Reduction in the number of dependents will assist families in moving out of poverty
NURHI/MLE Baseline Report 2010

44. What Can We Do?
Considering the significant impact of increased use of modern family planning on health, education, infrastructure and the economy, what can we do?
Photos by: Mike Blyth (left), others by Bonnie NURHI

45. Men and women in Ilorin cities want to plan their births
We should help ensure that Ilorin’s women and men have access to high quality family planning services.
We should support them in achieving their own family planning decisions.
As we have seen from the MLE data showed earlier, couples, men and women of Ilorin cities want to plan their families.
They need our help.
We should help ensure that Ilorin’s women and men have access to high quality family planning services.
We should support them in achieving their own family planning decisions.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

46. Policy Response
Improving access and utilization of high quality family planning services will:
Enable couples to space their children …
Reduce the number of maternal and child deaths …
Ilorin couples have expressed their need to plan their births. This requires prompt response from officials and leaders at all levels to ensure that policies, resources and services promote access to high quality family planning services in order to facilitate utilization of such services. This will:
• Enable couples to space their children…..
• Reduce the number of maternal and child deaths…….
And thereby support Ilorin in reaching the Millennium Development Goals of improved health, productivity and quality of life and become a flourishing and prosperous city.
Thereby support Ilorin in reaching the MDGs and becoming a flourishing and prosperous city.
Photo by Bonnie NURHI

47. What Needs to be Done Right Now?
Release of the funds that have been obligated for family planning
Ensure that the released funds are used for family planning services
Speak out, and encourage other leaders to speak out, about the important role of family planning in preventing maternal and child deaths
It will take the voices of leaders from all sectors to illustrate the importance of preventing these deaths
What needs to be done right now?
• Ilorin authorities should release funds that have been obligated for family planning
We should all help ensure that released funds are used for family planning services.
• We should speak out, and encourage other leaders to speak out about the important role of family planning in preventing maternal and child deaths and in contributing to social and economic development.
It will take the voices of leaders from all sectors to illustrate the importance of family planning in preventing these deaths and in supporting our developmental goals.

48. “Family Planning is something I support because we need to space our children, support safe motherhood and we need to take care of our children.”
Nigeria’s Minister of Health
November 2011
Finally, let us end with a quotation from our Minister of Health.
From thisdaylive.com 18th November 2011
Photo by Shiraz Chakera