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Historic Descent or Global Civilization? Expert Group Meeting UN Headquarters November 19, 2007 Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition.

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Presentation on theme: "Historic Descent or Global Civilization? Expert Group Meeting UN Headquarters November 19, 2007 Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition."— Presentation transcript:

1 Historic Descent or Global Civilization? Expert Group Meeting UN Headquarters November 19, 2007 Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition

2 Time Indicators of development Stabilization Take-off Acceleration Phases of Transition

3 Historical Transitions Early Civilization c. 10,000 years 20,000 10,000 0 Years Before Present Planetary Phase c. 100 years ? Modern Era c. 1,000 years Stone Age c. 100,000 years Complexity

4 Accelerated Transitions Years Before Present Stone Age Early Civilization Modern Era Planetary Phase

5 Years Before Present Tribe City-state Nation Planet Social Organization

6 Years Before Present Hunting & gathering Settled agriculture Industrial capitalism Economic Basis Globalization

7 Years Before Present Language Writing Printing Internet Communication

8 Global Connectivity Take-off Planetary Transition Global environmental change Information technology Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism WTO, multinationals, Davos Man Earth Summit, NGOs, Seattle Woman

9 Branch Points SCENARIOS Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Surprise Volition

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11 An Integrated View

12 Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions Global Scenarios policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism

13 Risky Bequest

14 Barbarization Environment Inequity Resentment Conflict Xenophobia

15 Bending the Curve Peace 2060Major Conflicts Freedom 2060 Social Equity Development billion 2020 Hunger CO 2 ( ppm) billion Forests (ha) billion 2020 People in stress ClimateEcosystemsWater

16 Limits of the Reform Path Policy Reform is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense challenges The critical uncertainty – where would the political will come from? Reform may not be enough…..

17 New Sustainability Paradigm Quality of life Human solidarity Ecological sensibility A values-led scenario A pluralistic scenario

18 Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Ultimate Drivers Knowledge and Understanding Power Structure Culture Values and Needs Proximate Drivers PopulationEconomyTechnologyGovernance

19 Tools for Transitions Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition well-being consumption throughput dematerialization wedge lifestyle wedge rich poor poverty spring equity magnet

20 Dimensions of Transition ValuesKnowledgeDemographicSocialEconomicGovernanceTechnology

21 Change Agents Intergovernmental organizations Transnational corporations Civil society An aware and engaged public

22 The future is always present, as a promise and a lure. Karl Popper Which world do we want?


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