10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 Years Before Present Language Writing Printing Internet Communication
Global Connectivity 1950 2000 2050 Take-off 1980- Planetary Transition Global environmental change Information technology Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism WTO, multinationals, Davos Man Earth Summit, NGOs, Seattle Woman
Branch Points SCENARIOS Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Surprise Volition
Bending the Curve Peace 2060Major Conflicts1980 30 2020 Freedom 2060 Social Equity 1980 1 2020 Development 20601980 1 billion 2020 Hunger 20601980 CO 2 ( ppm) 550 2020 300 2060 4.5 billion 20201980 Forests (ha) 3 20601980 5 billion 2020 People in stress ClimateEcosystemsWater
Limits of the Reform Path Policy Reform is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense challenges The critical uncertainty – where would the political will come from? Reform may not be enough…..
New Sustainability Paradigm Quality of life Human solidarity Ecological sensibility A values-led scenario A pluralistic scenario
Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Ultimate Drivers Knowledge and Understanding Power Structure Culture Values and Needs Proximate Drivers PopulationEconomyTechnologyGovernance
Tools for Transitions Market Forces Policy Reform Great Transition well-being consumption throughput dematerialization wedge lifestyle wedge rich poor poverty spring equity magnet
Dimensions of Transition ValuesKnowledgeDemographicSocialEconomicGovernanceTechnology
Change Agents Intergovernmental organizations Transnational corporations Civil society An aware and engaged public
The future is always present, as a promise and a lure. Karl Popper Which world do we want?