Presentation on theme: "Validity and Reliability"— Presentation transcript:
1 Validity and Reliability Will G Hopkins Sport and Recreation AUT UniversityThis slideshow is a shortened version of the slideshow in:Hopkins WG (2004). How to interpret changes in an athletic performance test. Sportscience 8, See link at sportsci.org.Other resources:Hopkins WG (2000). Measures of reliability in sports medicine and science. Sports Medicine 30, 1-15.Paton CD, Hopkins WG (2001). Tests of cycling performance. Sports Medicine 31,Hopkins WG (2010). A Socratic dialogue on comparison of measures. Sportscience 14, See link at sportsci.org.My spreadsheets for analysis of validity and reliability. Also minor articles. See links at sportsci.org.
2 DefinitionsValidity of a (practical) measure is some measure of its one-off association with another measure."How well does the measure measure what it's supposed to?"Concurrent vs convergent validity: the other measure is a criterion (gold-standard) vs something that ought to be related.Important for distinguishing between individuals.Reliability of a measure is some measure of its association with itself in repeated trials."How reproducible is the practical measure?"Important for tracking changes within individuals.High reliability is necessary but not sufficient for high validity.That is, you can measure something wrong reliably!And if you measure it right, it must be reliable.
3 Practical body fat (%BM) ValidityWe can often assume a measure is valid in itself……especially when there is no obvious criterion measure.Examples from sport: tests of agility, repeated sprints, flexibility.If relationship with a criterion is an issue, usual approach is to assay practical and criterion measures in 100 or so subjects.Fitting a line or curve provides a calibration equation, the error of the estimate, and a correlation coefficient.These apply only to subjects similar to those in the validity study.Preferable to Bland-Altman analysis.Limits of agreement (= ±1.96 SD of difference scores) do not allow proper assessment of error.B-A plot of difference vs mean scores usually indicates a systematic offset error (“proportional bias”) when in reality there is none.Practical body fat (%BM)Criterion body fat (%BM)r = 0.80
4 Beware of units of measurement that lead to spurious high correlations. Example: a practical measure of body fat in kg might have a high correlation with the criterion, but…Express fat as % of body mass and correlation = 0!So the measure provides no useful information.For many measures, use log transformation to get uniformity of error of the estimate over the range of subjects.Check for non-uniformity in a plot of residuals vs predicteds.Use the appropriate back-transformation to express the error as a coefficient of variation (percent of predicted value).The error of the estimate is the "noise" in the prediction.Ideally, noise < “signal”.The signal is the smallest important difference between subjects.Default = 0.20 of between-subject standard deviation (Cohen).But r2 = "variance explained" = (SD2-error2)/SD2.So if noise < signal, error < 0.20*SD.It follows that ideally r > 0.98! Much higher than people realize.
5 Uses of validity “Calibration” of a practical measure. The regression line between the criterion and the practical measure converts the practical into an unbiased estimate of the criterion.The standard error of the estimate is the random error in the calibrated value.Adjustment of effects in studies involving the practical measure (“correction for attenuation”).If the effect is a correlation, it is attenuated by a factor equal to the validity correlation.If the effect is slope or a difference or change in the mean, it is attenuated by a factor equal to the square of the validity correlation.BEWARE: the calibration and adjustments apply only to subjects drawn from the population used for the validity study.Otherwise the validity statistics themselves need adjustment.I have developed as yet unpublished spreadsheets for this purpose.
6 ReliabilityReliability is reproducibility of a measurement if or when you repeat the measurement.It's important for practitioners…because you need good reproducibility to monitor small but practically important changes in an individual subject.It's crucial for researchers…because you need good reproducibility to quantify such changes in controlled trials with samples of reasonable size.
7 How do we quantify reliability How do we quantify reliability? Easy to understand for one subject tested many times:ChrisSubject72Trial 176Trial 274Trial 379Trial 4Trial 577Trial 676.2 ± 2.8Mean ± SDThe 2.8 is the standard error of measurement.I call it the typical error, because it's the typical difference between the subject's true value and the observed values.It's the random error or “noise” in our assessment of clients and in our experimental studies.Strictly, this standard deviation of a subject's values is the total error of measurement rather than the standard or typical error.It’s inflated by any "systematic" changes, for example a learning effect between Trial 1 and Trial 2.Avoid this way of calculating the typical error.
8 We usually measure reliability with many subjects tested a few times: ChrisSubject7672Trial 2Trial 14Trial 2-1Jo58535Kelly60Pat8284Sam7367-26Mean ± SD:2.6 ± 3.4The 3.4 divided by 2 is the typical error.The 3.4 multiplied by ±1.96 are the limits of agreement.The 2.6 is the change in the mean.This way of calculating the typical error keeps it separate from the change in the mean between trials.
9 And we can define retest correlations: Pearson (for two trials) and intraclass (two or more trials). These are calculated differently but have practically the same values.The typical error is more useful than the correlation coefficient for assessing changes in a subject.Trial 1507090Trial 2Intraclass r = 0.95Pearson r = 0.95
10 Uses of reliability: monitoring change in an individual… Think about ± the typical error as the noise or uncertainty in the change you have just measured.You want to be confident about measuring the signal (smallest worthwhile change), say 0.5%.Example: you observe a change of 1%, and the typical error is 2%.So your uncertainty in the change is 1 ± 2%, or -1% to 3%.So the change could be harmful through quite beneficial.So you can’t be confident about the observed beneficial change.But if you observe a change of 1%, and the typical error is only 0.5%, your uncertainty in the change is 1 ± 0.5%, or 0.5% to 1.5%.So you can be reasonably confident you have a small but worthwhile change.Conclusion: ideally, you want typical error < smallest change.If typical error > smallest change, try to find a better test.Or repeat the test several times and average the scores to reduce the noise. (Four tests halves the noise.)
11 Importance of time between trials… When testing individuals, you need to know the noise of the test determined in a reliability study with a time between trials short enough for the subjects not to have changed substantially.Exception: to assess change due specifically to, say, a 4-week intervention, you will need to know the 4-week noise.For estimating sample sizes for research, you need to know the noise of the test with the same time between trials as in your intended study.Beware: noise may be even higher in the study (and therefore sample size will need to be larger) because of individual responses to the intervention.Individual responses can be estimated from the difference in noise between the intervention and control groups.
12 More on noise…As with validity, use log transformation to get uniformity of error over the range of subjects for some measures.Check for non-uniformity in a plot of residuals vs predicteds or change scores vs means.Use the appropriate back-transformation to express the error as a coefficient of variation (percent of subject's mean value).Ideally, noise < signal, and if signal = 0.20SD, we can work out the reliability correlation:Intraclass r = (SD2-error2)/SD2Validity equation is r2 = (SD2-error2)/SD2.But want noise < signal; that is, error < 0.20SD.So ideally r > 0.96! Again, much higher than people realize.
13 Uses of reliability: estimating sample size for studies with repeated measurement… In particular, changes in the mean in a crossover and differences in the changes in a parallel-groups controlled trial.My sample-size spreadsheet is set up for using the typical error, but you can convert a correlation to a typical error via a formula shown in the spreadsheet.For typical error = smallest important effect, sample size = 10 for a crossover and 24 (12+12) for a parallel-groups trial, using my method of acceptable uncertainty in the outcome. For the traditional approach, sample size is ~3x larger.For each doubling of the typical error, sample size increases by 4x.
14 Relationships Between Validity and Reliability An unreliable measure can't be valid, so short-term reliability sets an upper limit on validity. Examples:If reliability error = 1%, validity error 1%.If reliability correlation = 0.90, validity correlation √0.90 (= 0.95).Reliability of Likert-scale items in questionnairesPsychologists average similar items in questionnaires to get a factor: a dimension of attitude or behavior.The items making up a factor can be analyzed like a reliability study.But psychologists also report alpha reliability (Cronbach's ).The alpha is the reliability correlation you would expect to see for the mean of the items, if you could somehow sample another set of similar items.As such, alpha is a measure of consistency of the mean of the items, not the test-retest reliability of the factor.But √(alpha) is still the upper limit for the validity of the factor.