1. OCEANS, LAKES & RIVERS. INNOVATION, EXCELLENCE & SERVICE. Great Lakes Data in Offshore Wind Applications Andrew McGillis Detroit, MI 21 June 2011

2. Outline Introduction to Baird’s Perspective OW Backgrounder & Study Scales Required Data Substrate, wind, hydrodynamics, waves, ice, morphology, overlay linkages Further Data Needs Limits of Capabilities / Challenges

3. Baird & Associates Coastal, ocean and river engineering consultants Canadian firm founded in 1981 75 people with offices in Canada, U.S.A, Chile, Barbados, UAE, and Australia. Recognized worldwide for innovative, ecologically sensitive, and cost- effective solutions

4. Offshore Wind Experience Regulatory MMS in US for OCS impacts Great Lakes Impacts (Ontario MNR) EIS on Bay of Fundy Review of submitted EIS for CA Developers Two developers on Great Lakes Design of foundations in Baltic Sea Four potential developments on US Atlantic Coast

5. Offshore Wind Backgrounder Immediate future: Monopiles and GBS Long term: Jackets, tripods, floaters

6. Physical Study Scales Far-field, Near-field, Local near-field These scales are selected for coastal engineering purposes… there could be different ones for different studies

7. Required Data

8. Lakebed Characteristics EA & Design Siting (Bathymetry) Grab samples Shallow cores GSC/USGS atlas and datasets Sidescan Grabs & full cores at each foundation location

9. Wind Climate Many options at regional scale LS Anemometers Buoys Wind Field Data Atlases Also need site- specific measurement How it’s Used: Siting (critical) Development of Wind Fields Business Models Design (hub height and loads) Wave hindcasting Hydrodynamic and ice forcing Real-time operations (forecast) How it’s Used: Siting (critical) Development of Wind Fields Business Models Design (hub height and loads) Wave hindcasting Hydrodynamic and ice forcing Real-time operations (forecast)

10. Wave Climates Moderately well understood Observations are still critical to our understanding Wind-driven Data Sources: Buoys Hindcasted data Need measurements at site How it’s Used: Design Wave loads (ULS, FLS) Navigation conditions Driving force for sed. trans. Operations Access restrictions How it’s Used: Design Wave loads (ULS, FLS) Navigation conditions Driving force for sed. trans. Operations Access restrictions

11. Wave Climates (Challenges) Site-specific spectra Lack of winter observations Changed buoys 12m Discus is too large Great Lakes are fundamentally different

12. Hydrodynamics Extensively studied and modelled Wind and gravity driven Relatively easy to measure in field Difficult to calibrate at a site Need 3D models Far-field models such as the POM exist How it’s Used: Siting and design Not critical EA, Construction, and Operations Turbidity Spill response How it’s Used: Siting and design Not critical EA, Construction, and Operations Turbidity Spill response

13. Ice Climate Some elements are captured GLERL (NIC), CIS Ice coverage Some elements are not well captured Ice type Thicknesses Scour Short-term motions How it’s Used: Design Critical (ULS, FLS, Dynamics) Operations Winter access challenges How it’s Used: Design Critical (ULS, FLS, Dynamics) Operations Winter access challenges

14. Morphology Far-field Site specific – normally none Near-field Global scour and migration Local near-field Local scour (3-5 m change) Mitigated with protection What we have: Field sheets, charts, GEODAS

15. Data Needs (Next Steps) Ice Data Thickness stations closed Ice scour Resolution Climate change Temporal bed feature morphology Winter events Uncertainty Bed-mounted instruments Navigation Data Traffic Accidents Implementation: (from an offshore wind perspective) BOEMRE Marine Cadastre Incorporate: Uncertainty and Climate Change

16. (Pushing the) Limits of Capabilities Risk-Based Design Monte Carlo, Bayesian Isolate uncertainties Include climate change Spill & Event Modeling Linkages to real-time datasets Supports construction and operations Multiple transport mechanisms Linkages to Bio-indicators Stable Isotope Analyses Link physics to biological demands Climate Change Great Lakes scale estimates are now available Still a lot of uncertainty We can include this Data Impacts: winds, waves, ice, lake levels

17. Thanks! Andrew McGillis amcgillis@baird.com (905) 845-5385