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Enter CBED Elements Urban Subpopulation Human Health Intrinsic (Biological) Factors: Age Gender Nutritional Status Disease Constitution Disease State Immunologic.

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Presentation on theme: "Enter CBED Elements Urban Subpopulation Human Health Intrinsic (Biological) Factors: Age Gender Nutritional Status Disease Constitution Disease State Immunologic."— Presentation transcript:

1 Enter CBED Elements Urban Subpopulation Human Health Intrinsic (Biological) Factors: Age Gender Nutritional Status Disease Constitution Disease State Immunologic Status Reproductive Status Etc. Ecological Ecological Factors: Ecosystems Ecocycles Habitats Media Biota Selected Species Watersheds Etc. Economic Factors: Economic services Jobs Economic stability Natural resource value Mitigation costs Contaminant release impacts Etc. Other Specific Subpopulations Suburban Subpopulation Tribal Subpopulation Ethnic Subpopulations Rural Subpopulations Socio-Cultural Extrinsic (Behavioral) Factors: Cultural Practices Religious Practices Occupation Habits Dietary Factors Geographic Factors Living Conditions Etc. Economic Framework for a Consensus-based Environmental Decision-making (CBED) Process

2 Contact Information: Dr.Robert Stenner Pacific Northwest National Laboratory P.O. Box 999 MSIN: K3-54 Richland, WA 99352 509-375-2916 email: robert.stenner@pnl.gov NextPrevious CBED Process Standard Guide

3 The CBED Goal: A Balanced Decision means optimizing the well-being of a community: CBED Elements Urban Subpopulation Human Health Intrinsic (Biological) Factors: Age Gender Nutritional Status Disease Constitution Disease State Immunologic Status Reproductive Status Etc. Ecological Ecological Factors: Ecosystems Ecocycles Habitats Media Biota Selected Species Watersheds Etc. Economic Factors: Economic services Jobs Economic stability Natural resource value Mitigation costs Contaminant release impacts Etc. Other Specific Subpopulations Suburban Subpopulation Tribal Subpopulation Ethnic Subpopulations Rural Subpopulations Socio-Cultural Extrinsic (Behavioral) Factors: Cultural Practices Religious Practices Occupation Habits Dietary Factors Geographic Factors Living Conditions Etc. Economic NextPrevious

4 Surely commuting an hour to work, morning and night, would decrease ones well-being. Time would be wasted, fuel spent, tires worn out, and money put into restoring the car. However, tire company workers, fuel providers, and mechanics have their well-being increased as a direct result of commuters funding their paychecks. NextPrevious

5 This story is a simple example showing the need for the CBED Framework. A longer commute burdens the drivers, yet benefits the petroleum companies/ mechanics. Two or more groups, needing to work together, but with distinct views of well-being would benefit from this CBED Process. We can resolve this conflict through Informed Consensus Building. Can we then say peoples lives are better or worse because of a longer commute? NextPrevious

6 Health Example: Asthma Risk AttributionFactor 40% - 60%Genetics 20% - 30%Indoor Air Quality & Life-Style Factors (e.g., pets, carpets, hygiene, tobacco, solvents) 5% - 10%Outdoor Air Quality (e.g., traffic, heating, long-range transport, industry, biogenic factors) NextPrevious

7 Next Affected Stakeholder Identification Identify/Involve affected stakeholders Identify/Involve interested party stakeholders Identify/Involve regulating/oversight stakeholders Establish rules of engagement for all stakeholders Information/Issue Establishment (Issues, perceptions & preferences of affected stakeholders) Human health associated issues Ecological health associated issues Economic health associated issues Socio-cultural health associated issues Analysis/Forecasting Human health impact assessment and modeling Ecological health impact assessment and modeling Economic health impact assessment and modeling Socio-cultural health impact assessment and modeling Agreement on weighting and valuations Forecast range of possible outcomes based on the above analysis of impact assessments, weighting and valuations Previous

8 The Overall Process is Iterative at All Levels Informed Consent Establishment Develop agreement on solution selection criteria Consider temporal trade-offs based on selection criteria and valuations Utilize decision assessment tools to implement above criteria and valuations Establish temporal prioritization of the selected solutions Initiatives/Actions Implement prioritized solutions Application of valuation criteria Impact/Benefit analysis and tracking Program adjustments and tuning NextPrevious

9 Potential Health Exposure/Effect Component? No Impacts OR NO Determine Human Health Impacts Determine Human Health Impacts Determine Socio-Cultural Impacts Determine Socio-Cultural Impacts Determine Ecological Impacts Determine Ecological Impacts += Community Well-being YES Develop Exposure Scenarios: industrial, residential, Subpopulation- specific, recreational... Develop Exposure Scenarios: industrial, residential, Subpopulation- specific, recreational... Identify Potential Impact Scenarios: loss of access, loss of economic base, negligible risk, unacceptable risk, reduced use... Identify Potential Impact Scenarios: loss of access, loss of economic base, negligible risk, unacceptable risk, reduced use... Identify Ecological Endpoints: communities, species… Identify Ecological Endpoints: communities, species… + Impact of risk on cultural Integration Potential Ecological Component? Potential Socio-Cultural Component? OR YES Potential Economic Component? Determine Economic Impacts Determine Economic Impacts + NextPrevious

10 Initiatives Forecasting Informed Standards Stakeholders Definitions Information Consent

11 Definitions Assessing everything in the world we can think of, and hoping we get lucky enough to find the answers. World Health Organization: The individuals perceptions of their position in life, in the context of cultural and value systems in which they live and in relation to their goals, expectations, standards and concerns. Back Next

12 Definitions, cont. Application uses include assessing the full impact of decisions involving the environment Our present measures do not measure full community well- being Why measure Community Well-being in this Framework? Back Previous

13 The Initial Step: Information Balancing Multiple Stakeholders: Many decisions have impacts that affect various stakeholders in completely different ways… Example: An increase in commute time to and from work burdens drivers, yet benefits mechanics and petroleum companies. Balancing the needs and desires of multiple stakeholders can be accomplished through Informed Consensus Building Backbone of the Process Stakeholder Participation We are seeking to improve overall community well-being by placing effective, science-based tools in the hands of stakeholders. The stakeholders decide what areas are most important (human health, ecology, economics, socio-cultural) and use the tools best suited to that decision. Back Next Stakeholder Goals Whose Goals are we Pursuing? Owner/Responsible party Regulators Citizens directly affected by the decision Interested parties e.g. Sierra Club, Greenpeace

14 Reaching the Goal What is the Value of using the CBED Process? By placing effective, science- based tools in the hands of stakeholders … The stakeholders decide what is most important, and use the tools best suited to that decision Back NextPrevious

15 Forecasting Information Informed Consent Initiatives Facilitation TOOLS TO FACILITATE STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION TO DEVELOP INFORMED CONSENT TOOLS TO PREDICT HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIO- CULTURAL METRICS TOOLS TO IDENTIFY AND ESTABLISH STAKEHOLDER REPRESENTATIVES Role of Expert Advisors Back NextPrevious

16 Forecasting Information Informed Consent Initiatives Facilitation Stakeholders Do the Rest! MAKE DECISIONS ON ANALYSES: METRICS, VALUATIONS, AND FORECASTING RESULTS PROVIDE INFORMATION, FORMULATE KEY QUESTIONS DEVELOP INFORMED CONSENT ON PRIORITIES MAKE DECISIONS ON INITIATIVES AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION Back Previous

17 Information Issues, Perceptions, Preferences of affected stakeholders Health, Environmental, Economic, Socio-cultural Factors Back Next

18 Information, cont. The informational stage of the process is the predicted first step of the process. It is at this point where the stakeholders who will be affected by the environmental decision at hand have already been gathered and are now ready to begin the CBED process. The ground rules for the process will be created at this point, and the ideas of informed consensus building will be stressed in order to reach decisions. Back NextPrevious

19 Information, cont. The gathering of essential information from stakeholders will occur within this stage of the process. It will be the goal of this step to determine stakeholder values and ideals, such that some focus can be offered to the analyses of the CBED process. For example, if stakeholders value human health far more than economic growth (although the two are quite related), then the focus of the information gathering and data collection will be more on human health information than on economic information. Back NextPrevious

20 Information, cont. It will be important at this point to discover what data presently exists in relation to the local economy, human health, the ecology of the area, and the socio- cultural pulse of the area. If data does not exist or cannot be found through other sources, then primary data collection might be a necessity at this point in the process. If it is determined that data cannot be gathered for a certain area of emphasis, then it might be necessary to reassess the stakeholders priorities to find another method in which to capture this information. Back Previous

21 Forecasting Predictive models for forecasting Health, Environmental, Economic and Socio-cultural metrics Agreement on Valuations Forecast range of possible outcomes based on models and stakeholder valuations Back Next

22 Forecasting, cont. After the initial information has been gathered from the stakeholders, and we know where the priorities and values of the stakeholders rest, then the analysis of the environmental decision at hand can take place. This is where the set of tools from the expert advisors to the process come into play. Within the analysis stage there are four primary areas of measurement: · Human Health · Ecology · Economic · Socio-cultural Back NextPrevious

23 Forecasting, cont. Each of these four areas potentially encapsulates hundreds of possible forecasting methods and approaches. However, each of these four areas is also intimately related with one anotherwhere one goes, the others often follow. For example, an overall increase in peoples incomes often times results in greater use of natural resources and greater environmental degradation, an increase in human health due to the fact that health care is more affordable, and can result in more money being spent on cultural preservation. In essence, measuring one of these four variables will require that the other three variables be taken into account. Back NextPrevious

24 Forecasting, cont. There will be no specific path that has to be followed when performing these analyses. All that will be created in the CBED Process is a toolbox with many different options for stakeholders to choose from (with guidance from the expert advisors). Depending on the needs of the stakeholders, and the information available to input into the forecasting models, different analysis tools will be used for each environmental decision to be made. Back NextPrevious

25 Forecasting, cont. This is a point in the CBED Process that requires a great amount of communication between the stakeholders and the expert advisors. Oftentimes stakeholders are turned off immediately when their needs and values are thrown into a black box and an answer suddenly appears. Although this cannot be avoided completely, stakeholder facilitation throughout the forecasting/analysis stage can help alleviate much of this skepticism. As well, it is essential that the four forecasting/analysis areas are able to speak with one another in respect to their results. If all of the economics results are in money terms while all of the socio-cultural measures are in qualitative form, then there will be no real way to analyze these measures together, which is the exact opposite result for which the CBED Process was created. Back Previous

26 Informed Consent Develop Agreement on Solution Selection Criteria Temporal Trade-Offs based on Selection Criteria and Valuations Temporal Prioritization of Preferred Solutions Back Next

27 Informed Consent, cont. Once the analyses have been completed, the time will come to agree upon a solution for the stakeholders. In order to do this, criteria have to be created in order to decide which solution is preferred. The stakeholders have to agree upon what is most important to them (health, economics, ecology, socio-cultural) and come up with criteria that cater to what they value most. This structured area of solution selection criteria is essential to guarantee that all of the needs of stakeholders are accounted for during the selection process. Without this structure, certain needs could easily go unaccounted. Back NextPrevious

28 Informed Consent, cont. The stakeholders will have to begin making trade-offs among the different forecasting results that are presented to them. Not every forecast will be positive, so the stakeholders must decide what is most important (from the information stage and their solution selection criteria) among all of their options. Decision assessment tools can be used at this point to prioritize the stakeholders decisions and to help analyze the trade-offs that will be made depending on the solution that is chosen. Back Previous

29 Initiatives Implement Prioritized Solutions Application of Valuation Criteria Impact/Benefit Analysis Program Tuning & Iteration Back Next

30 Initiatives This step of the process is the implementation of the selected solution(s). Impact and benefit analyses must be run throughout this stage to see what the real impacts of the decision are, and what changes need to be made to the decision. Back NextPrevious

31 Initiatives, cont. At any point throughout this process, the participants can go back through previous stages to reassess their progress. If certain stakeholder values were not fully accounted for, then it will be necessary to gather more information before making and implementing a decision. If the expert advisors cannot produce accurate forecasts with the information that they are given, then they will need to go back to the stakeholders to remedy this problem. At any point in the CBED Process, there are opportunities to renegotiate and reassess the stakeholders needs and wants. Back Previous

32 Standards Mission: To be the foremost developer and provider of voluntary consensus standards…that promote public health and safety, and the overall quality of life. Creating a standard guide* –Standard: a document developed and established within the consensus principles of ASTM –Guide: a series of options or instructions that do not recommend a specific course of action *A guide only suggests an approach. The purpose of a guide is to offer guidance, based on a consensus of viewpoints, but not to establish a fixed procedure. Back Next

33 Standards, cont. Back Previous


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