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Attitudes toward trade and the global economy March 16, 2007 Lake Research Partners 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 tel. 202/776-9066.

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Presentation on theme: "Attitudes toward trade and the global economy March 16, 2007 Lake Research Partners 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 tel. 202/776-9066."— Presentation transcript:

1 Attitudes toward trade and the global economy March 16, 2007 Lake Research Partners 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 tel. 202/776-9066 fax 202/776-9074 1000 Broadway, Suite 294 Oakland, CA 94607 tel. 510/286-2097 fax 510/286-2022 info@lakeresearch.com

2 Context Americans are economically anxious and generally pessimistic about the economy in the future. Lake Research Partners

3 3 Only the war concerns more Americans than economic issues do. What do you think is the number one problem facing the country today -- that is, what is the problem that you and your family are most concerned about? LRP/Tarrance Group. January 8-11, 2007. N=1,000 Registered Likely Voters. Lake Research Partners

4 4 More than half of adults believe the economy is getting worse Do you think the national economy is getting better, staying the same or getting worse? American Research Group. The Economy. Conducted 2/18-21/07; surveyed 1,100 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 2/22). Lake Research Partners

5 5 Just 29% of Americans are hopeful about the future of the economy. A year from now, do you expect the national economy to be better than it is today, the same as it is today or worse than it is today? American Research Group. The Economy. Conducted 2/18-21/07; surveyed 1,100 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 2/22). Lake Research Partners

6 6 Thinking about the next generation of Americans who are children today, the way things are going, do you think economically they will be better off, worse off, or about the same as the generation of adults who are working today? Parents are afraid that their children will be worse off economically than they are. LRP Conducted The American Dream Survey on behalf of Change to Win among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions. Lake Research Partners

7 7 Thinking specifically about the economy, what two things are you personally worried about the most? Are they… Wages not keeping up with cost of living is the top economic concern, followed by rising gas prices and health care costs. LRP Conducted The American Dream Survey on behalf of Change to Win among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions. Lake Research Partners

8 8 A majority of workers now believe they will retire at an older age than they expected. Do you think that you will retire younger, the same age or older than you estimated 5 years ago? LRP Conducted The American Dream Survey on behalf of Change to Win among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions. Lake Research Partners

9 9 Health care costs, losing health care coverage, not having enough money for retirement, and not being able to keep up with bills are the top immediate concerns for the working middle class today. MINOR/NOT AT ALLVERY/SERIOUS Not being able to afford health care when you and your family need it Losing your health care benefits Not having enough money for retirement Not being able to keep up with bills Losing my job and not being able to find one with same pay and benefits Losing your pension benefits Having your standard of living slip further Losing your home or never owning a home Not having enough time to spend with your family Now I am going to read you a list of different concerns that working people might have in America today. For each one, even if it is not a problem right now, please tell me how much of a concern it is for you – a very serious concern, a serious concern, a minor concern, or not a concern at all. LRP Conducted The American Dream Survey on behalf of Change to Win among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions. Lake Research Partners

10 10 * American Dream survey of 800 workers, 8-06 ** Gallup, June 1-4, 2006: 1,002 adults Three out of ten workers have taken on debt to pay for necessities like food, utility costs, and gasoline.* In June, 53% of Americans said they personally know someone who has been laid off in the last six months. ** Lake Research Partners

11 11 Workers overwhelmingly believe that working families are falling behind. Now I am going to read you some statements and I want you to tell me if you agree or disagree with each statement.: No matter what you hear about the economy, working families are falling behind. 81% Agree 25% Darker colors indicate higher intensity LRP Conducted The American Dream Survey on behalf of Change to Win among 800 non-supervisory workers August 14-20, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 3.5% for the full sample, higher among split sampled questions. Lake Research Partners

12 12 Daniel Yankelovich wrote in the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs that outsourcing is reaching a tipping point as an issue for the American public.* Eighty-seven percent of voters are concerned about outsourcing (52% worry a lot), and 81% of voters gave the government a C, D, or F in its handling of the issue. * The Tipping Points, by Daniel Yankelovich, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006 Lake Research Partners

13 13 This negativity about the economy is greatest among blue collar voters and independents both of whom have been shifting away from Democrats. Concerns are greater in red states than in blue states. Speaking to jobs being outsourced and leveling the playing field is a way to reach these voters in red states. Lake Research Partners

14 Attitudes on trade and trade agreements Americans are generally positive about globalization in principle. Overall, they are unsure of the impact of trade policies on them and have strong concerns about the impact on jobs and wages. Lake Research Partners

15 15 The general attitude towards globalization is positive. Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of...globalization? Survey by German Marshall Fund of the US. Methodology: Conducted by TNS Opinion and Social Institutes, September 5- September 25, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 999. Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Darker colors indicate higher intensity Lake Research Partners

16 16 Americans are not sure about the impact of free trade agreements on prices. As I read some of the possible ways free trade agreements affect America, tell me what your impression is....Do free trade agreements make the price of products sold in the US (United States) higher, lower or not make a difference? Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology: Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R39A] Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Lake Research Partners

17 17 Just 11% see free trade agreements raising American wages overall. (As I read some of the possible ways free trade agreements affect America, tell me what your impression is.)...Do free trade agreements make the wages of American workers higher, lower, or not make a difference? Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology: Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R39A] Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Lake Research Partners

18 18 Just one third believe agreements such as NAFTA have helped them and 29% arent sure one way or the other. Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family...Do you think these free trade agreements like NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the WTO (World Trade Organization) have definitely helped, probably helped, probably hurt, or definitely hurt the financial situation of you and your family? Darker colors indicate higher intensity Survey by Pew Research Center. Methodology: Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, December 6-December 10, 2006 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,502. [USPSRA.121906.R38] Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. 35% 36% Lake Research Partners

19 19 Protecting jobs is a major concerns for voters. In November of 2005, a Pew* poll found that the public rated protecting American jobs as nearly as important as defending the country against terrorism (86% terrorism, 84% jobs). By contrast, the poll found few opinion leaders who consider jobs a top tier foreign policy goal. * Pew Research Center, Sept. 5-Oct. 31, 2005: 2,000 adults, 520 opinion leaders Lake Research Partners

20 Moving forward Democrats have a strong message on trade, jobs, and outsourcing. Energy independence is a strong issue that links the new economy, the future, and good jobs for Americans. Lake Research Partners

21 21 Democrats have a strong message in addressing these concerns about the negative impact of free trade. DEMOCRATIC We're running trade deficits and outsourcing jobs abroad while new jobs in America have lower wages and fewer benefits. We need a new strategy that reduces our import of foreign oil, enforces labor rights and environmental protections in trade accords, and provides tax credits for companies that create jobs in the US (United States) and invest in new American industries. 80% more likely to vote for this candidate (47% much more likely). REPUBLICAN America benefits from free trade which helps our economy at home and abroad. Our trade policy is generating growth and new markets for US (United States) products, while American consumers benefits from the inexpensive products that are produced abroad. 50% more likely to vote for this candidate (13% much more likely) Survey by Campaign for America's Future and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, June 4-June 7, 2006. 1000 registered voters Now, let me read you some signature policies from a [Democratic/Republican] candidate for Congress. After hearing it, please tell me whether it makes you much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or no more likely or less likely to support that candidate. Lake Research Partners

22 22 Democrats were able to use alternative energy plans to increase the perception that they had new and innovative ideas that could bring about the change that voters were looking for. Newly elected Congressman Jerry McNerney built on the power of this issue with his strong profile of expertise on renewable energy and communicated a national energy plan to voters in his successful upset over Richard Pombo. This is an area where Democrats can follow through – alternative, renewable, and sustainable energy is an arena where voters support government taking the lead rather than allowing businesses and corporations to make the investment decisions. Lake Research Partners

23 23 As with many progressive issues, one of the biggest barriers is cynicism. Yankelovich reported in The Tipping Point in 2006 that most Americans (74%) feel it is unlikely that U.S. companies would keep jobs in the country when labor is cheaper elsewhere, and 52% believe it was unrealistic to think that the government could do anything to stop corporations from sending jobs overseas though a plurality believe the government could do a lot more to prevent jobs from moving overseas if it tried. Lake Research Partners


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