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Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025

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Presentation on theme: "Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025"— Presentation transcript:

0 Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy
Doc ID Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy

1 Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025
Doc ID Doc ID Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025 GDP, billion USD Agriculture Industry Services 147 Key transitions ~10% p.a. 29% Diminishing weight of agriculture from 42% to 29% of GDP Migration from agriculture jobs to services and industry Reaching of middle-income status before 2025 32% 51 30 39% 2010 2015 GTP 2025 projected Population mln (mid-year) 79 89 116 GDP/cap. In USD 378 565 1.271 Source: GoE GTP; EDRI 1

2 Why……? Ethiopia will see further warming in all seasons of between 0.7°C and 2.3°C by the 2020s and of between 1.4°C and 2.9°C by the 2050s. This warming will be associated with heat waves and higher evapo-transpiration. More regular heavy rainfall events are expected and this is likely to result in increased flooding. Recent studies indicate, unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year.

3 Why Justifications for developing a green economy :
natural resource assets global carbon finance co-benefits (for health, wellbeing, economic growth and natural resource conservation) Ethiopia is well positioned to become a regional and global leader in low carbon growth which will have a legacy and commercial benefit long into the future. huge low carbon potential – (ex: rich in forests, hydro, solar, wind & geothermal energy

4 Development of the green economy would offer further benefits outside of Ethiopia
Preserve biodiversity of the planet Assist green development of neighbouring countries by providing cheap clean electricity Show to other countries that green growth is an achievable pathway Contribute to global GHG emission reduction Source: CRGE

5 If a typical development path were followed, emissions would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030) Doc ID BAU emissions development Mt CO2e per year CAGR1 Percent t CO2e/capita Drivers and rationale 3.0 Livestock: Increase in cattle population and other species (doubling from ) Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops production) and synthetic fertilizer 400 185 4.4% Agriculture Average growth of cropland (estimated to reach 3.9% per year) Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood consumption +167% 1.8 Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100% clean/renewable generation for on-grid (2014) 2.6% 90 Forestry 150 Increase in passenger-km traveled projected based on elasticity to real GDP Increase in ton-km of cargo transported based on elasticity to real GDP Power - 5 11.2% 40 Transport Cement production (steep increase in GTP, thereafter approach to MIC-level) Establishment and scale-up of industries in textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others 15.7% 55 70 Industry Buildings 3.9% 5 5 10 Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions 2010 2030 – BAU 1 Compound average growth rate

6 Developing a green economy combines economic development and abatement
Doc ID Focus CRGE Green Economy Combining eco- nomic growth with low GHG emissions, e.g. Sustainable land use via efficient agriculture Sequestration in forests Expansion of renewable energy Resource efficient advanced technologies Development Green Economy Abatement Resilience Green economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technology, unsustainable growth and land use Source: CRGE

7 The strategy for a green economy is based on four pillars
Middle income country in 2025 Agriculture – Improving crop and livestock practices Reduce defores-tation by agricul-tural intensification and irrigation of degraded land Use lower-emitting techniques Improve animal value chain Shift animal mix Mechanize draft power Forestry – Protecting and growing forests as carbon stocks Reduce demand for fuelwood via efficient stoves Increase seques-tration by affores-tation/reforestation and forest mana-gement Power – Deploying renewable and clean power generation Build renewable power generation capacity and switch-off fossil fuel power generation Export renewable power to substitute for fossil fuel power generation abroad Industry, transport and buildings – Using advanced technologies Improve industry energy efficiency Improve produc-tion processes Tighten fuel efficiency of cars Construct electric rail network Substitute fossil fuel by biofuels Improve waste management Green economy strategy Source: CRGE

8 The CRGE outlines how Ethiopia will reduce 255 mtCO2 per year while ensuring economic growth
Doc ID Emissions per year1, Mt CO2e t CO2e/capita Agriculture Forestry Power Transport Industry Others 400 185 -64% Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO2e from exporting green power to regional markets 130 150 90 10 20 5 5 40 145 55 70 5 5 10 Agri- culture Forestry Trans- port Industry Buil- dings Green Economy 2030 2010 2030 BAU 1.8 3.0 1.1 1 Rounded numbers 2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste

9 Challenges  MRV – of the activities outlined under the CRGE MRV of financing the CRGE activities Setting baselines for reducing emissions and vulnerability reductions

10 Thank you

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