Presentation on theme: "Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025"— Presentation transcript:
0 Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Doc IDEthiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy
1 Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025 Doc IDDoc IDEthiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025GDP, billion USDAgricultureIndustryServices147Key transitions~10% p.a.29%Diminishing weight of agriculture from 42% to 29% of GDPMigration from agriculture jobs to services and industryReaching of middle-income status before 202532%513039%20102015 GTP2025 projectedPopulation mln (mid-year)7989116GDP/cap.In USD3785651.271Source: GoE GTP; EDRI1
2 Why……?Ethiopia will see further warming in all seasons of between 0.7°C and 2.3°C by the 2020s and of between 1.4°C and 2.9°C by the 2050s. This warming will be associated with heat waves and higher evapo-transpiration.More regular heavy rainfall events are expected and this is likely to result in increased flooding.Recent studies indicate, unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia’s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year.
3 Why Justifications for developing a green economy : natural resource assetsglobal carbon financeco-benefits (for health, wellbeing, economic growth and natural resource conservation)Ethiopia is well positioned to become a regional and global leader in low carbon growth which will have a legacy and commercial benefit long into the future.huge low carbon potential – (ex: rich in forests, hydro, solar, wind & geothermal energy
4 Development of the green economy would offer further benefits outside of Ethiopia Preserve biodiversity of the planetAssist green development of neighbouring countries by providing cheap clean electricityShow to other countries that green growth is an achievable pathwayContribute to global GHG emission reductionSource: CRGE
5 If a typical development path were followed, emissions would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030)Doc IDBAU emissions developmentMt CO2e per yearCAGR1Percentt CO2e/capitaDrivers and rationale3.0Livestock: Increase in cattle population and other species (doubling from )Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops production) and synthetic fertilizer4001854.4%AgricultureAverage growth of cropland (estimated to reach 3.9% per year)Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood consumption+167%1.8Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100% clean/renewable generation for on-grid (2014)2.6%90Forestry150Increase in passenger-km traveled projected based on elasticity to real GDPIncrease in ton-km of cargo transported based on elasticity to real GDPPower-511.2%40TransportCement production (steep increase in GTP, thereafter approach to MIC-level)Establishment and scale-up of industries in textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others15.7%5570IndustryBuildings3.9%5510Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions20102030 – BAU1 Compound average growth rate
6 Developing a green economy combines economic development and abatement Doc IDFocus CRGEGreen EconomyCombining eco- nomic growth with low GHG emissions, e.g.Sustainable land use via efficient agricultureSequestration in forestsExpansion of renewable energyResource efficient advanced technologiesDevelopmentGreen EconomyAbatementResilienceGreen economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technology, unsustainable growth and land useSource: CRGE
7 The strategy for a green economy is based on four pillars Middle income country in 2025Agriculture – Improving crop and livestock practicesReduce defores-tation by agricul-tural intensification and irrigation of degraded landUse lower-emitting techniquesImprove animal value chainShift animal mixMechanize draft powerForestry – Protecting and growing forests as carbon stocksReduce demand for fuelwood via efficient stovesIncrease seques-tration by affores-tation/reforestation and forest mana-gementPower – Deploying renewable and clean power generationBuild renewable power generation capacity and switch-off fossil fuel power generationExport renewable power to substitute for fossil fuel power generation abroadIndustry, transport and buildings – Using advanced technologiesImprove industry energy efficiencyImprove produc-tion processesTighten fuel efficiency of carsConstruct electric rail networkSubstitute fossil fuel by biofuelsImprove waste managementGreen economy strategySource: CRGE
8 The CRGE outlines how Ethiopia will reduce 255 mtCO2 per year while ensuring economic growth Doc IDEmissions per year1, Mt CO2et CO2e/capitaAgricultureForestryPowerTransportIndustryOthers400185-64%Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO2e from exporting green power to regional markets130150901020554014555705510Agri-cultureForestryTrans-portIndustryBuil-dingsGreenEconomy203020102030BAU1.83.01.11 Rounded numbers2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste
9 Challenges MRV – of the activities outlined under the CRGEMRV of financing the CRGE activitiesSetting baselines for reducing emissions and vulnerability reductions
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