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The future of analytical applications based on trade statistics: Where do we go? Thierry Paulmier Market Analysis Section 8th OECD International Trade.

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Presentation on theme: "The future of analytical applications based on trade statistics: Where do we go? Thierry Paulmier Market Analysis Section 8th OECD International Trade."— Presentation transcript:

1 The future of analytical applications based on trade statistics: Where do we go? Thierry Paulmier Market Analysis Section 8th OECD International Trade Statistics Expert Meeting, 17th – 19th September, Paris Market Analysis Section

2 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 2 Paris, September 2007 ITC facts and figures What is ITC –The joint technical cooperation agency of UNCTAD and WTO Vision –The development partner in export success Who we are –200+ employees and 800+ specialized consultants. Who funds us –The UN and WTO fund our basic work programme. –Governments (donors, recipients) and civil society organizations fund field projects Annual budget –US$ 55 million

3 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 3 Paris, September 2007 What Is ITC? Mission –ITC enables small business export success in developing countries by providing, with partners, trade development solutions to the private sector, trade support institutions and policy-makers Strategic objectives –Enterprises: strengthen the international competitiveness of enterprises. –Trade support institutions: develop their capacity to support businesses. –Policymakers: support policy-makers in integrating the business sector into the global economy. Web site: www.intracen.org UNCTAD WTO ITC

4 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 4 Paris, September 2007 The Market Analysis Section at ITC Produces a range of tools for market research and trade analysis for exporters, importers and trade support institutions. These include: Trade Map Export / Import statistics and derived indicators Market Access Map Customs tariffs and some non-tariff barriers Investment Map FDI statistics and details of foreign affiliate companies

5 Where ITC fits in statistics value chain National Producers Regional Producers Aggregators End users ITC is an aggregator that obtains data from other aggregators, regional producers and national producers

6 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 6 Paris, September 2007 Our focus Users in developing and least developed countries Client Groups include: Business sector: –In identifying growing markets, and product diversification opportunities Trade support institutions –In providing reliable trade information and advice to companies National ministries and policy makers –In designing national and sector specific export strategies Trade negotiators –In formulating bargaining positions in regional and multilateral market access negotiations We aim to: To increase exports of poor countries Improve transparency of global markets To support Development & reduce poverty

7 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 7 Paris, September 2007 1.More current 2.More detailed 3.Broader geographic coverage 4.More integrated with related data & more content 5. More affordable Our clients are demanding data that is

8 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 8 Paris, September 2007 ITC response: IssueTrade Map, Market Access Map, Investment Map Current Most current yearly trade statistics now presented as soon as available. Quarterly & monthly data for current year presented where available (monthly coming) Tariff data presented in the current year ITCs data collection focuses on those countries that are not collected by international organisations (quarterly & monthly trade data and customs tariffs) Detailed 5 years of trade data now available in Trade Map (not just one year) Trade data at the detailed product level – national tariff line Introducing historical tariff data to Market Access Map to facilitate analysis Data on foreign affiliate companies now available in Investment Map Geographic coverage Collecting data on some countries previously not covered (especially in Africa). Country coverage has increased for all 3 tools Integration & Content The 3 tools will be integrated and made more user friendly early next year Additional analytical indicators will be added Non-tariff measures and market access information on services agreements will be integrated Affordability Tools will be free to developing countries & LDCs from Jan 1st 2008. Subscription fees will continue for developed economy users. Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

9 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 9 Paris, September 2007 More current data

10 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 10 Paris, September 2007 More detail - historical data

11 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 11 Paris, September 2007 More detail – tariff line and quarterly data

12 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 12 Paris, September 2007 Better geographical coverage

13 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 13 Paris, September 2007 More user friendly

14 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 14 Paris, September 2007 Better functionality

15 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 15 Paris, September 2007 Better integration

16 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 16 Paris, September 2007 Our vision To collaborate with international, regional and national organisations in order to be the leading aggregator of trade related data for developing countries and LDCs To put developing countries on a level playing field with the developed world in terms of: –Ease of access to global trade, market access and investment data All relevant data in one database Low cost to access –Ability to make cross country comparisons Widest possible geographical coverage –Facility of drawing practical and strategic conclusions Most current data at most detailed level available Wide variety of pre-calculated indicators, trends & graphs User friendly interfaces

17 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 17 Paris, September 2007 To support ITCs 5 lines of business 1.Export Strategy 2.Trade intelligence 3.Policy for export 4.Strengthening of trade support institutions 5.Exporter Competitiveness

18 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 18 Paris, September 2007 Where is the demand? What markets are growing? Who is competing to serve those markets? What are the market access conditions? How do we position our products? In this new trade environment

19 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 19 Paris, September 2007 Top 10 markets for developing country exports ImporterRank in market size Value of imports from DCs in $bill Growth in Imports from DCs in % 2001-05 USA169353 China2326232 Japan321756 Hong Kong421157 Germany513393 UK69878 Singapore79296 Rep. of Korea873117 France97282 Netherlands1067111 Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

20 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 20 Paris, September 2007 Next 10 markets for developing country exports ImporterRank in market size Value of imports from DCs in $bill Growth in Imports from DCs in % 2001-05 Canada116295 Italy125893 Chinese Taipei135784 Malaysia145590 Mexico1551134 Spain1649133 Thailand1743104 India1843209 Australia1940120 Belgium2039117 Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

21 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 21 Paris, September 2007 Where is the demand? What markets are growing? Who is competing to serve those markets? What are the market access conditions? How do we position our products? In this new trade environment

22 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 22 Paris, September 2007 Markets for products exported by developing countries have recorded a 73% increase in the North and a 115% increase in the South (2001 to 05) USA: a USD 700 bn market expanding slowly but offers big opportunities; China: 1/3 the US size but more than tripling its size every five years. By the end of this decade, China should have overtaken the US market. the Asian network and notably Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Rep. of Korea, Taiwan PoC, Malaysia and Thailand Mexico and India - large and buoyant markets Growth markets for DCs exported products Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

23 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 23 Paris, September 2007 Most successful sectors for DC exports IndustryRank in export size Value of exports from DCs in $bill Growth in Exports in % 2001-05 Radio, TV & communication equipment and apparatus 1530118 Office, accounting and computing machinery 230676 Basic metals 3250134 Coke and nuclear fuel 4231112 Other non-metallic mineral products 520080 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 6172117 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 716386 Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur 815541 Textiles 915443 Food products and beverages 1014961 Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

24 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 24 Paris, September 2007 Key points on export sectors The traditional international division of labour where exporting countries are mainly shipping garments or agro-food to the North no longer corresponds to the actual patterns of international trade. Leading export sector of the South is now radio, television and communication equipment, followed by computers Most dynamic sector is medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks, 183 % increase in DCs exports; Machinery and equipment, generally considered the exclusive domain of industrialized countries, is now the fifth sector in terms of change, with a 117 percent increase in DCs exports. Even if the specialization of DCs is generally in labour intensive segments of the value chains (e.g. assembly), new forms of competition and international integration are clearly emerging Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

25 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 25 Paris, September 2007 Where is the demand? What markets are growing? Who is competing to serve those markets? What are the market access conditions? How do we position our products? In this new trade environment

26 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 26 Paris, September 2007 Food Products: –Brazil and Mexico are the two best performers, followed by: –Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador in South America; –Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and China in Asia; –UAE, Kenya, Cote dIvoire, Morocco, Iran and Syria in Africa and Middle East. Clothing, textiles and leather: –Fierce global competition with a redistribution of market shares to most competitive suppliers –World imports from DCs have grown at below-average rates with 41 %, 43 % and 43 % respectively –China is leader $142 bn exports and growth at twice industry level followed by Turkey and India –Vietnam has outperformed China in terms of growth of leather exports China is the leading exporter in each of the five sectors: –radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus; –Office, accounting and computing machinery –Basic metals –Coke & nuclear fuel –Other non-metallic mineral products Most Successful Diversifiers in terms of products and markets are: –China, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt, Hong Kong (SARC), Rep. of Korea, Thailand, Mexico, Pakistan, Brazil, Chinese Taipei, Malaysia Who is competing to serve those markets? Source: ITC, Changes in the Environment for Trade Promotion in Developing Countries, 2006

27 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 27 Paris, September 2007 Changes in world market shares? IndustryWorld market share redistributed (% positive) 2001-2005 Top 5 countries gaining market share (in order of gain) O ffice, accounting and computing machinery 30 China, Malaysia Netherlands, Germany, Thailand Radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus 23 China, Chinese Taipei, Rep. of Korea, Malaysia, Japan Medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks 21 China, Japan, Rep. of Korea, German, Chinese Taipei Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur 21 China, Turkey, India, Italy, Vietnam Coal and lignite; extraction of peat 20 Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Botswana

28 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 28 Paris, September 2007 Where is the demand? What markets are growing? Who is competing to serve those markets? What are the market access conditions? How do we position our products? In this new trade environment

29 Tools for Market Analysis 17-19 Sept 2007 Aeroe 29 Paris, September 2007 market access trends Decline in average applied tariffs worldwide Tariff peaks on some products of importance to DCs –Agricultural products –Textiles, clothing and footwear Other market access issues persist –Agricultural subsidies in developed markets Other important issues –Growth in number of regional trade agreements –Preference erosion due to multilateral and regional tariff dismantling –Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures –Technical barriers to trade –Other NTBs and environmental issues e.g. carbon labelling


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