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1 Globalization of trade flows -- what you see is not what you get -- 2 nd WPTGS meeting, OECD Paris, 16.-18.11.2009

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Presentation on theme: "1 Globalization of trade flows -- what you see is not what you get -- 2 nd WPTGS meeting, OECD Paris, 16.-18.11.2009"— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Globalization of trade flows -- what you see is not what you get -- 2 nd WPTGS meeting, OECD Paris,

2 2 Global economic crisis - decomposition of trade flows (wysinwyg) Trade and Production: Import content of exports -- statistical measurement Economic importance Statistical measurement Case studies --Trade & Business Links Direct measurement Indirect measurement Trade: Goods for processing Economic importance Statistical measurement in BPM6/IMTS2010 Intra-firm trade Economic importance Statistical measurement in SNA 2008/BPM6/IMTS2010 Provisional Outline

3 3 Growth rates of merchandise trade by region, Q Global economic crisis... but second quarter world exports increased 8% (q/q)

4 4

5 5 Import content of exports – trade in value added Three ways of measuring the fragmentation of the value chain 1 Using firm surveys 2 Foreign trade statistics The increase in the share of parts and components in trade flows indicates more production-sharing between countries. 3 Using international input-output tables to depict inter-industry relations. I-O shows how the output of one industry is an input to each other industry. Input is enumerated in the column of an industry and its outputs are enumerated in its corresponding row. International I-O extends the inter-sectoral relations to several countries. It shows how dependent each national industry is on all other sectors from the domestic economy and from other partner countries, both as customer of their outputs and as supplier of their inputs. International I-O is conceptually very simple, but requires high-quality data. It is a powerful modeling tool for: Measuring size/magnitude of production linkages and the length of the chains Computing Vertical Specialization Index Tracking the international transmission of demand/supply shocks

6 6 The American car* 37 only 37 per cent of the production value is generated in the US 30 per cent go to Korea for assembly 17.5 per cent to Japan for components and advanced technology 7.5 per cent to Germany for design 4 per cent to Chinese Taipei and Singapore for minor parts 2.5 per cent to the UK for advertising per cent to Ireland and Barbados for data processing and that was in 1998 * Grossmann, G. Rossi-Hansberg, E. The Rise of Offshoring, Its not wine for cloths anymore Firm surveysTrade and business links ?

7 7 Trade in intermediate goods, 2008

8 8 Trade in services – offshoring/tasks Estimating the size of offshore outsourcing is subject to definitional and statistical challenges Classifications do not distinguish services to end-use clients or intermediate, or business-to- business services. Consequently, estimates vary : OECD's and UNCTAD include all IT-enabled services, estimate at US$836 billion.[1][1] /8 UNCTAD estimated the value of trade in "IT-enabled" services at US$1.1 trillion in 2005,...[2][2] - London School of Economics[3] estimates global market of offshore outsourcing of IT (ITO) and business process services (BPO) to exceed US$55 billion in 2008, 20 per cent increasing annually over next five years.[3] - Leading recipients of IT and business process off-shored trade have been Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Indias exports US$40 billion, China, Russia, and Brazil US$5 billion, US$3.65 billion, and US$800 million respectively in [1] OECD, "Expanding International Supply Chains: The Role of Emerging Economies In Providing IT [1] and Business Process Services", Working Paper No. 52, May [2][2] UNCTAD, Information Economy Report UNCTAD. [3][3] Willcocks, Griffiths, and Kotlarsky, Beyond BRIC: Offshoring in non-BRIC countries: Egypt – a new growth market, LSE Outsourcing Unit, January 2009.

9 9 Asian Input-Output tables (IDE-Jetro) Leontief inverse = (I-A) -1 Vertical trade (import content of exports) = M * (I-A) -1 * X A: technical coefficients matrix I: identity matrix X: export vector M: vector of shares of import per sector in sector output Using Input-Output tables to measure vertical trade

10 10 An alternative measure of bilateral US trade deficit with China

11 11 Goods for Processing (Balance of payments data, in billion dollars) Source: IMF Balance of Payment statistics partially completed with WTO estimates for missing data. The importance of goods for inward processing in developing economies total exports and imports (minimum approximation),

12 12 Goods for Processing

13 13 Goods for Processing A fictive example, China 2007

14 14 Example Manufacturing services that change the condition of the goods Resident Economy A Resident Economy B Resident Economy C Resident Economy D Goods & Services Account: Economy A General merchandise (with B): 10 DR General merchandise (with D): 30 CR Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others (with C): 15 DR 1 10 (for acquiring raw oil from B) 15 (for refining oil by C) 30 (for refined oil by C on behalf of A) 3 5 Money flow Raw oil (acquired by A previously) Owner: A 2 4 Refined oil, delivered by C on behalf of A), owner: A Goods flow Services Account: Economy C Manufacturing services (15 CR) Goods Account: Economy B Goods exports to A (10 CR)

15 15 The application of the new BPM6 recommendations can lead to significant divergences in trade aggregates Fear: the BOP treatment may lead to a loss of data in merchandise as principal data source Alter statistical description of an economys economic structure: shift between goods and services, structure of industries/output ratios/ productivity measures Data collection: revision of questionnaires, register links, need for sound compilation guideline Warn users against break in series, consistency of time series (ratios, shares and rankings change) for users: will link between intl. trade and production be less ambiguous? Where is the limit between goods for processing and manufacturing? Goods for Processing

16 16 Intra-firm trade Anecdotal evidence: One-third of all [merchandise] trade is within companies for the US in 2006, 37 to 38 per cent of its trade in merchandise is intra-firm (Akram/Khan/Holady study) and 28 per cent of its trade in services is intra-firm (2007)

17 17 Intra-firm trade 2008 SNA In principle, items transferring across borders should be valued at arms length prices BPM6 (10.150) Services for the general management of a branch/subsidiary/associate...included in other business services IMTS 2010 (draft):...transactions between related parties (whatever the definition of related") should be included in international merchandise trade statistics the same way as if these transactions would take place between unrelated parties...

18 18 IMTS 2010 – mode of transport, country of consignment, imports (fob), goods for processing, intra-firm trade MSITS 2010 – other business services, mfr services on inputs owned by others More research needed into trade in value added Intermediate goods I/O approach New data sources: trade and business links Conclusions

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