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SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos Head of National Accounts Co-ordination October, 2007 Directorate.

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Presentation on theme: "SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos Head of National Accounts Co-ordination October, 2007 Directorate."— Presentation transcript:

1 SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos Head of National Accounts Co-ordination October, 2007 Directorate of Surveys

2 Population 186,777,562 Area 8,514,876 Km 2 27 states 5,564 municipalities IBGE 27 unities (each state) 532 agencies Doing statistics and national accounts in Brazil

3 The Brazilian National Statistical System Coordination (IBGE) Statistics of National scope (IBGE) Statistics of Regional scope Administrative Registers (State Statistics Agencies (Ministries / Secretariats / OREs) Central Bank Articulated database (Regional/Sectorial/National)

4 Institutional organization Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Directorate of Surveys SNA - Latin-American organization Statistical offices – Brazil, Argentina, Colombia Bolívia Peru,Cuba, Mexico Central Banks – Uruguay, Paraguay,Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Republica Dominicana, Nicaragua.....

5 Directorate of Surveys Organogram Directorate of Surveys Coordination of Economic Statistics and Classifications Management of Business Register Management of Dissemination Management of Planning and Budget Population Census Committee Technical Management of Population Census Technical Management of Agricultural Census Coordination of Prices Indexes Coordination of Mining and Manufacturing Surveys Coordination of Methods and Quality Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Coordination of Household Surveys Coordination of National Accounts Coordination of Services and Trade Surveys Coordination of Agriculture Surveys

6 National Accounts in Brazil Some history

7 Getúlio Vargas Foundation / IBGE Four accounts Current prices and constant prices with a fixed year 1947 - 1989 benchmark each five years (0 and 5) with the Agriculture and Industry Census Values extrapolated with volume and price indices Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc.)

8 December 1997 SNA based on SNA (1993) SUT – IEA Current prices and previous year 1990 - 2003 SUT – 80 products and 43 activities IEA – Institutional Sectors Values extrapolated with volume and price indices Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc.)

9 1990 Crash in the IBGE Budget Last Census 1985 No annual economic statistics => no benchmark 1995 Redefinition of economic statistics

10 Economic Statistics New model (since 1995) Basis of the new system –Business Register - CEMPRE –National Classification of Economic Activities Annual Surveys Monthly Surveys

11 Social and demographics Economics Demographics Census Population Count Business RegisterAgricultural Census HouseholdsEnterprises or Establishment Annual: PIA, PAC, PAS, PAIC, PAM, PPM,PEVS Monthly: SNIPC, PIM, PMC Special: PINTEC Annual: PNAD Monthly: PME Special: POF, ECINF Administrative Registers : Civil Register, MUNIC, MAS, PNSB Social Indicators SystemNational Accounts System Sampling Surveys Statistical Production System


13 Economic Statistics (annual surveys) Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries - Enterprise ( PIA - Empresa) 40,369 enterprises Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries - Product (PIA - Produto) Survey of Construction Industry (PAIC) 11,500 enterprises Survey of Commerce (PAC) 50,737 enterprises Survey of Services (PAS) 67,470 enterprises

14 Household Surveys 2000 Population Census: 54 million of households PNAD 2006: 140 thousand of households, annual Urban informality -ECINF 2004: 54 thousand of households Expenditure -POF 2002-2003: 60 thousand of households Employment - PME: 42 thousand of households, monthly

15 Agriculture Statistics Census of Agriculture Annual Surveys –Municipal Agricultural Production Temporary and Permanent Crops (PAM) –Municipal Livestock Production Survey (PPM) –Extractive Agriculture and Forestry Production (PEVS) Short-term Surveys –Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA- monthly) –Animal slaughter, milk production, leather, eggs –Survey of Stocks

16 Prices Statistics (monthly) National System of Consumer Prices Indexes (11 areas) National System of Cost Survey and Indices of Construction – SINAPI Producers Price Indices

17 External Sources FISCAL DECLARATION – Ministry of Economy Bussiness registers Central Bank Government National Agency of Electric Energy - ANEEL National Agency of Oil- ANP External Trade - SECEX.......

18 Economic Statistics (monthly and special surveys) Monthly –Monthly Survey of Mining and Manufacturing - Physical Production - PIM/PF –Monthly Survey of Industrial Employment and Wages - PIMES –Monthly Survey of Trade - PMC Special –Technological Innovation Survey - PINTEC

19 Economic Statistics Business Register –Number of active enterprises: 5.7 million Annual Surveys –PIA 2004: 40,369 enterprises –PAS 2004: 67,470 enterprises –PAC 2004: 50,737 enterprises –PAIC 2004: 11,500 enterprises Short-term Surveys –PIM-PF: 8,610 enterprises, monthly –PIMES: 7,631 enterprises, monthly –PMC: 10,666 enterprises, monthly PINTEC 2004: 10,328 enterprises

20 Household Surveys Monthly Employment Survey - PME National Household Sample Survey -PNAD (annual) Expenditure Household Survey - POF Urban Informal Sector Survey - ECINF

21 SNA – reference 2000 Released in March 2007

22 The reference 2000 SNA series incorporates in its compilation the following actions: I) New classification of products and activities, integrated with CNAE 1.0 and ISIC Rev. 3. Enlargement of the number of activities and products in the SUT IEA updated with de DIPJ's data. IV) Availability of the annual surveys accomplished by the IBGE. V) Introduction of the 2002 Expenditure Household Survey as a family consumption reference. VI) Introduction of data from the Agricultural Census of 1995/6.

23 VII) Jobs disaggregation for production function, what enables the estimate considering the characteristics of productive units. VIII) Methodology calculation and development of the consumption of fixed capital by the Government and Non Profit institutions. IX) Distribution of the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly intermediary consumption by activity, enabling the elimination of the fictitious sector Financial Dummy. X) Update of the methodology for estimating volume indices. Mostly for public administrations and financial intermediation that, in the previous series, were extrapolated by the demographic growth and by the economy average, respectively. Disaggregation the Non-profit institutions from Household Institutional Sector in the final consumption and in the IEA.

24 => 2000 – 2005 reviewed with all new data sources and methodological improvements =>1996- 1999 backcasting =>1990 – 1994 maintained


26 ANNUAL – provisional version (T-1) - semi-definitive (??) - definitive (T-2) QUARTERLY– 70 days after the end of a quarter REGIONAL– definitive (T-2) MUNICIPALITIES – GDP only (T-2) SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided) Health (project well defined) Culture (dream) R & D (dream) Brazilian System of National Accounts

27 SUT working level 293 products 149 activities publication level 110 products 55 activities IOT each five years IEA Non-financial corporations Financial corporations General Government Households Non-profit institutions serving households Rest of the world SNA

28 IEA Current Accounts Current Accounts I. Production II. Distribution and use of income accounts II.1 Primary distribution of income II.1.1Generation of income II.1.2Allocation of Primary Income II.2 Secondary distribution of income II. 3 Redistribitution of income in kind II.4 Use of Income Account II.4.1Use of Disposable Income II. 4.2 Use of adjustable disposable income Accumulation Accounts III.1 Capital Account III.2 Financial Account

29 QNA New series of the Brazilian System of Quarterly National Accounts were released in March 2007, following the reformulation of the Annual System. QNA data are disseminated in: current prices, chain-linked volume indices (1995=100) and rates of change. QNA presents data of GDP by 12 economic activities and by component of final expenditures (final consumption expenditure of households, final consumption expenditure of government, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories, exports and imports of good and services).

30 QNA Data are released for the following activities: Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and Construction Services: Commerce, Transportation, Information Services, Rents, Financial Institutions, Public Administration and Other Services Quarterly series are adjusted to annual data with a Denton type method. The data for GDP, Agriculture, Industry, Services and expenditure components, except changes in inventories, are seasonally adjusted. The X-12 ARIMA method is used for seasonal adjustment.

31 REGIONAL For 27 states the Production Account MUNICIPALITES GDP in current values for the 5564 municipalities SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided) + Ministry of Tourism Health (project well defined) + Ministry of Health Culture (dream) R & D (dream)

32 March of year T: GDP, the demand components and the value added of the previous year with base in quarterly data for 12 economic activities in current values and volume indices, annual variation. In the second semester, the definitive version of T-2 is published with a complete (110 products and 55 activities) SUT and an IEA. A preliminary version of T-1 with a small SUT (12 activities) was also published. QNA data are published 70 days after the end of each quarter. In the QNA a SUT is estimated for each quarter, however only the added value of 12 economic activities is published. chained volume indices, seasonally adjust volume indices and the current values for the GDP, the components of the final demand and the value added of 12 economic activities and an integrated economic account for the country, including the financial account. Regional data for T-2 are published in December each year DISSEMINATION – preannounced schedule

33 Data Access Publications : methodology and tables with a CD Internet: all data is available for download On-line bookstore NEXT STEPS Financial Account until December 2007. Balance Sheets 2012, with reference to 2010, a new revision will be presented. (ISICRev. 4, the new Expenditure Household Survey 2007, the Agricultural Census of 2007…..)

34 GDP 1995-2005

35 GDP 2000-2005 (2)

36 Participação das atividades no valor adicionado - 2000

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