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MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre 2 nd Conference of.

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Presentation on theme: "MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre 2 nd Conference of."— Presentation transcript:

1 MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large Scale Catastrophes

2 Munich Re NatCatSERVICE – One of the worlds most comprehensive databases on natural catastrophes From 1980 until today all loss events For USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970 Retrospectively all Great Natural Catastrophes since 1950 In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD – eruption of Mt.Vesuvio (3,000 historical data sets) Currently more than 26,000 events documented Great natural catastrophes: Hurricane Ike Cyclone Nargis Earthquake China Winter damage China Extreme temperature (heat wave, forest fires) Flood Storm Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption Natural catastrophes 2008 © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 2

3 MR NatCatSERVICE Breakdown into catastrophe categories Catastrophe classOverall lossesand/or fatalities Loss profile1980s*1990s*2000 – 2008* 0Natural eventNo property damage---none 1Small-scale loss eventSmall-scale property damage ---1-9 2Moderate loss eventModerate property and structural damage ---> 10 3Severe catastropheSevere property, infrastructure and structural damage US$ >25mUS$ > 40mUS$ > 50m> 20 4Major catastropheMajor property, infrastructure and structural damage US$ > 85mUS$ > 160mUS$ > 200m> 100 5Devastating catastrophe Devastating losses within the affected region US$ > 275mUS$ > 400mUS$ > 500m> 500 6Great natural catastrophe GREAT disaster Regions ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude. * Losses adjusted to the decade average. © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 3

4 MR NatCatSERVICE Entry details: example Hurrikan Ike Separate entries for the affected countries © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 4

5 MR NatCatSERVICE Entry details: example Hurrican Ike Number of fatalities Event description Affected lines of business Affected people Affected infrastructure Affected buildings © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 5

6 MR NatCatSERVICE Example: Hurrican Ike - Damages 30/o09/2008 Insured losses Munich Re share Additional loss information Overall losses © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 6

7 MR NatCatSERVICE Methodology Expert Consultation Harmonizing terminology of disaster perils CRED © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 7

8 Geophysical Family Meteorological Hydrological Climatological Main event Earthquake Volcanic eruption Mass movement dry Earthquake Volcanic eruption Mass movement dry Sub Peril Earthquake (Ground shaking) Fire following Tsunami Earthquake (Ground shaking) Fire following Tsunami Volcanic eruption Subsidence Rockfall Landslide Subsidence Rockfall Landslide MR NatCatSERVICE Structure – peril families © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 8

9 MR NatCatSERVICE Structure – peril families Storm Tropical cyclone Winter storm (extratropical cyclone) Tempest/Severe storm Hail storm Lightning Tornado Local windstorm (orographic storm) Sandstorm/Dust storm Blizzard/Snowstorm Tropical cyclone Winter storm (extratropical cyclone) Tempest/Severe storm Hail storm Lightning Tornado Local windstorm (orographic storm) Sandstorm/Dust storm Blizzard/Snowstorm Geophysical Meteorological Hydrological Climatological FamilyMain eventSub Peril © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 9

10 MR NatCatSERVICE Structure – peril families Flood Mass movement wet Flood Mass movement wet General flood Flash flood Storm surge Glacial lake outburst flood General flood Flash flood Storm surge Glacial lake outburst flood Subsidence Avalanche Landslide Subsidence Avalanche Landslide Geophysical Meteorological Hydrological Climatological FamilyMain eventSub Peril © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10

11 MR NatCatSERVICE Structure – peril families Extreme temperature Drought Wildfire Extreme temperature Drought Wildfire Heat wave Cold wave / frost Extreme winter conditions Heat wave Cold wave / frost Extreme winter conditions Drought Wildfire Unspecified Wildfire Unspecified Geophysical Meteorological Hydrological Climatological FamilyMain eventSub Peril © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 11

12 MR NatCatSERVICE Sources ScienceGovernment, UN, EU, NGOs News-Agencies Meteorological Services Insurance © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 12

13 Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2008 Percentage distribution worldwide 285 Loss events2,000,000 Fatalities Overall losses* US$ 1,970bnInsured losses* US$ 410bn Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) *in 2008 values © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 13

14 MR NatCatSERVICE Services & Analysis Thematic maps © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 14

15 MR NatCatSERVICE Download-Center There are 50 documents available in each language version 2008: 30 000 Downloads © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 15

16 MR NatCatSERVICE Access&User Science General public Political committees Analysts, investors Clients Staff NatCatSERVICE © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 16

17 NATHAN Web-based tool for risk analysis on natural perils worldwide plus additional information on major disasters and country profiles © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 08.02.201417

18 MR NatCatSERVICE Services NATHAN - loss information © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 08.02.201418

19 World Map of Natural Hazards/Globe of Natural Hazards – DVD / Wall map / Folding map 19

20 Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products Wall map/Folding map – World Map of Natural Hazards

21 Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products DVD – Globe of Natural Hazards

22 Knowledge in a state of flux All global hazard maps have been updated Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

23 New hazards Topics like flood and climate change are fully integrated Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

24 Hazard pointer Power function supplies quick information on situation regarding natural hazards and climate change for any location on earth Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

25 View from space Knowledge can be displayed with a satellite image in the background Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

26 Networked knowledge Complex topics like risk management of natural hazards and climate change are linked in a sophisticated manner Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?

27 Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Features Dynamic : an (updatable) model, not a map Global: covers also less developed/monitored areas according to uniform standards Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody Public Private Partnership: combining the strenghts of both sectors An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD, aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world

28 GEM: A Public-Private Partnership International Scientific Organisations Intergovernmental and Governmental EU Leading Scientific Institutes Zurich Industry

29 GEM goals => Assess and monitor risk globally, especially in less well served regions => Raise risk awareness => Stimulate risk mitigation => Save lives, reduce losses and distribute the financial burden GEM is not an academic exercise. The goal is to convert knowledge into action. To achieve GEMs goals we need local champions

30 Probability of direct financial loss HAZARDRISK SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT Earthquake probabilities Building Code input Earthquake impact User awareness of risk Financial tools Cost-Benefit Analysis Building inventories Vulnerabilities Probability of damage Probability of loss of lives Probability of indirect financial loss GEM Setup GEM integrates developments at the forefront of seismological and engineering knowledge in three interconnected modules engineering knowledge in three interconnected modules Probability of earthquake occurrence Probability of ground motion

31 5-yr Build-up phase: 35 m Secretariat and global infrastructure Global components Regional implementation Annual maintenance and operation: 2 m/yr 15m Founding sponsor, Munich Re Other sponsors (in progress) Public Funds (in progress) 5m GEM Funding Scheme

32 THANK YOU!


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