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1 Methodological changes in Austrias balance of payments Impact on trade in goods and services statistics Patricia Walter.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Methodological changes in Austrias balance of payments Impact on trade in goods and services statistics Patricia Walter."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 www.oenb.at oenb.info@oenb.at Methodological changes in Austrias balance of payments Impact on trade in goods and services statistics Patricia Walter Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Balance of Payments Division September 2007

2 2 Agenda A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts Cooperation with Statistics Austria New survey on trade in services First results Future Outlook

3 3 A new balance of payments system: Motivation Until 2006, compilation of the Austrian balance of payments via a MFI based settlement system –Complemented by surveys for the financial account –Compilation of trade in services completely settlement based, except for travel Growing negative effects on data quality and compilation efficiency

4 4 A new balance of payments system: Motivation –Common currency in the Euro area blurres the distinction between national and foreign transactions Travel item: new survey based compilation already introduced with the introduction of the Euro –Step wise development of a single Euro payments area diminishes the useability of payments for statistical purposes –Intra-company settlement systems (cash centres) loosen the connection between payments and transactions, concerning volumes as well as regional structures

5 5 A new balance of payments system: Concepts In January 2006, OeNB switched to a direct reporting system –From this key date onwards No settlement data have been available any more Complete data collection substituted by surveys Main components –Sample design varies with type of transaction and industrial sector –Reporting population consists of about 7.000 economic entities, from these about 5.000 report on trade in services –Legal basis attributes the central bank the same status as to the NSI, giving access to registers and administrative data

6 6 A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts Cooperation with Statistics Austria New survey on trade in services First results Future Outlook

7 7 Cooperation with Statistics Austria Basic agreement on cooperation between OeNB and NSI, Statistics Austria –Concentration on the respective expertise –Statistics Austria in real economies and the OeNB in financial markets –Cooperation framework agreement, yardstick memorandum of understanding between ECB and EUROSTAT Concrete tasks are laid down in service provider contracts like for compiling exports and imports of services –Statistics Austria collects data from non financial companies –OeNB from insurance companies and banks Synergies are gained within the scope of external statistics –Including the harmonization with National Accounts

8 8 Cooperation with Statistics Austria non-financial corporations financial corporations general government private households nonprofit institutions serving households CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods Services Income employment income investment inmcome Current Transfers CAPITAL ACCOUNT FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Financial Derivatives Other Investment Official Reserves Errors and Omissions

9 9 Cooperation with Statistics Austria Respondents of trade in services In % of total Trade in services only 70,0% Trade in services and one category of financial transactions 21,8% Trade in services and two categories of financial transactions 7,9% Trade in services and three categories of financial transactions 0,4%

10 10 Cooperation with Statistics Austria Intra/Extrastat XINTIP Matrix Current Account Verification Estimation Services Survey Administrative Data Travel Survey Aggregation Data Base BoP-Sets Transmission EUROSTAT CA x Country x Sector C/D/N ECB Statistics Austria CA1 CA2 Services Survey Investment Income Aggregation

11 11 A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts Cooperation with Statistics Austria New survey on trade in services First results Future Outlook

12 12 Concentration survey for identifying the statistical population –Carried out within the scope of Austrias structural business survey 2003 (EG, EURATOM no. 58/97) Covered 32,247 out of 266,258 Austrian business units Service industry: different thresholds in turnover between 750.000 and 1,5 Mio. Manufacturing industry: threshold in number of employees > 20 –Not included i.a. Financial corporations Public and private services (education, health, welfare; ) –Gap estimates Settlement data for unit-non-response Imputation of remaining reporting deficits (MEDIAN, turnover and sector classes) Estimates for businesses below survey thresholds (Regression, services exports and imports to turnover) New survey on trade in services: population analysis

13 13 New survey on trade in services: population analysis Businesses with services exports Services exports in 1,000 Businesses with services imports Services imports in 1,000Net Survey data5,21417,334,9174,97313,718,5303,616,387 Totals after estimates47,13720,132,84643,64115,739,2224,393,624

14 14 New survey on trade in services: survey design Number of businesses Coverage in % of concentration survey Coverage in % of total Services exports Services imports Services exports Services imports 4.80099 8991 –Thresholds depending on type of industrial sector 200,000 or 50,000 for services exports as well as imports per year –Two different reporting concepts Quarterly report on services exports and imports regarding partner countries and classification of services Quarterly report on services exports and imports regarding partner countries together with yearly report on the classification of services

15 15 –Transportation –Travel –Communication services –Construction services –Insurance services –Financial services –Computer and information services –Royalties and licence fees –Other business services –Personal, cultural and recreational services –Government Services, n.i.e. –Employment income, debet –Current transfers New survey on trade in services: survey design

16 16 Transportation: cif/fob correction Until 2006Credit, cDebet, dNet Goods, GGcGd -TdGc – Gd + Td Transport services, TTcTdTc - Td Services not allocated, S.N.A.S.N.A.cS.N.A.d + TdS.N.A.c – S.N.A.d – Td New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts Since 2006: Te = Volume x distance x freight rate, Te < TdCredit, cDebet, dNet Goods, GGcGd -TeGc – Gd + Te Transport services, TTc - TecTd + TedTc – Tec – Td – Ted

17 17 Insurance services –Calculation of insurance service charge, for exports and imports Gross premium – gross claim = net premium per country and period (gross premium – gross claim)/gross premium = x[%] long-term Gross premium * x% = insurance service charge per country and period –Database harmonized with Financial Market Authority (EU regulation no. 1225/1999 to 1228/1999) –Mirror Data are available for imports New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts

18 18 Financial services –Completely corrected for financial derivatives Government services –Inclusion of compensation of employees by international organizations New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts

19 19 Methodological changes I –Compilation until 2006: statistics of overnight stays and guest interviews, settlement data –Since 2006: hyprid type of compilation –New seasonality due to change of time of recording: from time of settlement to travel Methodological changes II –Distinction between different components –Inclusion of expenditures from seasonal workers and students –Exclusion of payments from foreign and illegal workers –Correction for national components, especially for package tours New compilation of the travel item

20 20 A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts Cooperation with Statistics Austria New survey on trade in services First results Future Outlook

21 21 Table 1 –First results for 2006 and provisional recalculations for 2005 First results: data and recalculations

22 22 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

23 23 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

24 24 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

25 25 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

26 26 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

27 27 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

28 28 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

29 29 First Results: methodological effects 20052006

30 30 First Results: structural findings

31 31 First Results: structural findings

32 32 First Results: structural findings

33 33 First Results: structural findings

34 34 First Results: structural findings

35 35 First Results: structural findings

36 36 A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts Cooperation with Statistics Austria New survey on trade in services First results Future Outlook

37 37 Step wise recalculation of historic data back to 1995 (forthcoming year end 2007) Revision of the reporting population for the survey on trade in services –Recurrent concentration survey on the basis of Austrias structural business survey –Cooperation with the Statistics Department of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce Step wise realization of FATS Connection of trade in services data with structural business statistics Survey among households on imports of services Future outlook


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