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Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting TM The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE Asia Robert Muir-Wood & Owen.

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Presentation on theme: "Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting TM The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE Asia Robert Muir-Wood & Owen."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting TM The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE Asia Robert Muir-Wood & Owen Gough OECD 2 nd International Cat Risks Conference Bangkok, Sept 25 th 2009

2 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Agenda Best practices in the provision of hazard data Relevant perils in SE Asia Availability of mapped hazard data across SE Asia Implications of the hazard data deficit – where should provision and access now be focused? 2

3 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Hazard Map – Producing Authority Type of mapEither risk based (probabilistic/historical) or forecast ParametersDamaging agent A, damaging agent B, damaging agent C Risk BoundariesBoundaries for damaging agent A, boundaries for damaging agents B and C InformationPreparedness, evacuation or response information Retrieval MethodHow the data is retrieved by the user (e.g. address search or coordinates) AccessHow the user initially locates the map or the search form Coverage Stars approximately represent the coverage of the risk area e.g. US hurricane maps achieve coverage despite only including the East/Gulf Coast Best Practices Very GoodVery difficult to improve GoodSufficient but minor improvements possible AverageFunctional but requires some improvement PoorVery limited requires substantial improvement Key to tables Key to colours

4 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Tsunami Threat Map – FESA Western Australia Type of mapProbabilistic ParametersWave height Risk Boundaries100/500/1000/2000 year RP InformationNone Retrieval MethodNot searchable AccessMap available on FESA website, full report linked from GA website Coverage Covers entire area at risk from tsunamis Tsunamis Maximum wave heights along the WA coast for return periods of a) 100 years, b) 500 years, c) 1000 years, d) 2000 years

5 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM My Hazards – CALEMA Type of mapProbabilistic ParametersShaking, liquefaction, landslide, fault rupture Risk BoundariesHigh/medium, at risk areas InformationPreparedness information tailored to each risk level, multi-format Retrieval MethodSearch by zip/address/coordinates AccessProminent banner link from California state and emergency website Coverage Covers all areas of the state of California Earthquakes Screenshot of the information page showing the risk level of hazards, the checklist of suggested steps to prepare and the tabs to view flood and fire risk

6 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Hurricane Preparedness – NHC/NOAA Type of mapProbabilistic ParametersIntensity (Saffir-Simpson scale) Risk BoundariesExact return periods for 75nm areas InformationNone (available in other sections of NHC website) Retrieval MethodSelectable by three areas of coast (Gulf, Southeast, Northeast) AccessLink from NHC website Coverage Covers all of East and Gulf coast but only at discrete points Tropical Storms NHC map of the Gulf Coast showing return periods for Category 5 hurricanes

7 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM New Orleans Risk – US Army Corps of Engineers Type of mapProbabilistic ParametersHeight of inundation Risk Boundaries2%/1%/0.2% annual probabilities on separate maps (50/100/500 year RP) InformationNone (available in other sections of New Orleans Risk website) Retrieval MethodSelectable by city area Access Whilst this is easily available on NOR website, links should be available from more obvious sites such as Louisiana or New Orleans disaster planning sites Coverage Covers New Orleans and Plaquemines but not entire NO metro area Storm Surges Example of 1% flood heights for the French Quarter, New Orleans

8 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Flood Map – England and Wales EA Type of mapProbabilistic ParametersNo information Risk Boundaries1%/0.5%/0.1% annual chance of flooding (100/200/1000 year RP) InformationTailored information for each flood risk category Retrieval MethodSearch by postcode or browse map Access Prominent link from Environment Agency website Coverage Covers all of England and Wales Floods Screenshot of map showing regions of likely flooding, extreme flooding and protected zones. Data on specific location risk is available by clicking on the map

9 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Mt. Rainier – USGS Type of mapProbabilistic ParametersLahars, all other volcanic hazards Risk Boundaries1-100/100-500/500-1000 year RP, 100-1000 year RP InformationNone (available on other sections of USGS volcano site) Retrieval MethodViewed by volcano Access Easily located from main USGS hazards page Coverage Detailed mapping only covers areas surrounding major volcanoes Volcanoes Extract from hazard map for Mt. Rainier, Washington

10 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Progetto IFFI – ISPRA Type of mapProbabilistic/Historical ParametersSuperficial landslides, subsidence, collapse, expansion Risk BoundariesOnly given as at risk areas InformationNone Retrieval MethodBy address or area Access Theoretically easily accessed but site frequently goes down Coverage All of Italy covered CHECK THIS Landslides Extract from the IFFI GIS map. Dark green areas are at risk from superficial landslides, Light green areas have COLAMENTO RAPIDO, Purple hatching represents urban development and Red areas have experienced collapse or tipping.

11 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Country – Major Hazards Hazard Map TypeCoverageDamaging AgentsBoundaries Information/ReportingRetrievalAccessibility EqEarthquake hazard FlFlood hazard LsLandslide hazard Tr/SsTrop. storm and surge hazard TsTsunami hazard VoVolcanic hazard PerfectVery difficult to improve GoodSufficient but minor improvements possible AverageFunctional but requires some improvement PoorVery limited requires substantial improvement Approximate representation of area covered by hazard maps Key to tables Key to colours Survey of Hazard Information in South East Asia

12 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Countries included in the report

13 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Bangladesh Cyclone Sidr, November 2007 Casualties: 3,300 Losses: US$470million Strongest Indian Ocean cyclone ever recorded Caused massive storm surge devastating low land areas Would have caused 100,000+ casualties had it not been for early evacuation Bangladesh – Eq, Fl, Tr/Ss Earthquakes Probabilistic Shaking475 year RP Local disaster action plans, road map for improvements No search function Less detailed version available on DBM website Floods Probabilistic Duration, depthCombined vulnerability index Warnings and preparedness information No search functionNot apparently available online Tropical Storms Storm Surges Probabilistic Wind risk, storm surgeAt risk, high/med risk Warnings online, other information available to public but not online No search functionLinked from DMB website

14 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Cambodia Severe Flooding, September- October 2000 Casualties: 350 Losses: US$160million Large lengths of the Mekong River burst its banks 22 out of 24 provinces were affected More than 3.4million people displaced Cambodia – Fl Floods Historical Maximum historic floodAt risk area Thorough warnings and preparedness info, along with forecast data Selectable by river stations No obvious website for Cambodian Disaster Management

15 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Indonesia – Eq, Fl, Ls, Ts, Vo Earthquakes Probabilistic Ground shaking475/2500 year RP Well reported on the BMG website, some information on hazards No search function Linked from the PVMBG website. More detailed map from USGS Floods P/F FloodingHigh/Medium/Low risk Forecast for up to 2 months available, information available Selectable by area Maps linked from BMG website, but information harder to find Landslides Probabilistic LandslideHigh/Medium/Low risk Plenty of information available on PVMBG website Selectable by areaLinked from the PVMBG website Tsunamis Historical Damaged area- Preparedness road shows/online information and early warning Selectable by areaNot directly available on Indonesian websites Volcanoes Worst Case Debris avalanches, pyroclastic flows, lateral blasts, tephra, lahars Worst case limits, 200/300/500/700 m 3 /s volume flux Hazard levels and information for major volcanoes is on PVMBG. PVMBG information selectable by volcano PVMBG information easily available. Detailed Merabi map in a paper. Indonesia Earthquake, 27 th May 2006 Casualties: 5,800 Losses: US$3100million Magnitude 6.2 event some 25km South-West of Yogyakarta Despite relatively low intensity, extremely shallow depth meant it was very damaging Most casualties in the Bantul district

16 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Lao PDR – Fl Floods Historical Maximum historic floodAt risk area Thorough warnings and preparedness info, along with forecast data Selectable by river stations DMH website provides MRC and local data Lao PDR No major disasters have hit Lao PDR in the recent past

17 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Malaysia Malaysia – Fl Floods Historical Maximum historic floodAt risk area Good information and warnings available on Malaysia 999 site Selectable by regional map plateOnly a few example areas available Severe Flooding, December- January 06/07 Casualties: 118 Losses: US$395million Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from the remnants of Typhoon Utor In some areas rainfall exceeded 10% of the total annual precipitation 400,000 people displaced and evacuated

18 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Myanmar – Eq, Fl, Tr/Ss, Ts Earthquakes Probabilistic Ground shaking475 year RP Reports of significant seismic activity on DMH website. No information No search function Not linked from any Myanmar government website Floods None--- DMH provides flood warnings.- Information links on DMH website do not function Tropical Storm Storm Surge None--- DMH provides tropical storm and storm surge warnings. - Information links on DMH website do not function Tsunami None--- - Myanmar Cyclone Nargis, 2 nd May 2008 Casualties: Estimates range from 100,000 upwards Losses: Estimated US$4billion-10billion Most damage and casualties caused by storm surge No accurate loss/casualty figures available Several million left homeless

19 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM The Philippines – Eq, Fl, Ls, Tr/Ss, Ts, Vo Earthquakes Probabilistic Ground shaking475 year RP Warnings and information on preparedness available No search functionLinked from PHIVOLCS website Floods - -- Warnings issued by PAGASASelectable by provinceLow resolution version available from NDCC Landslides - -- Severe weather warnings issued by PAGASASelectable by provinceLow resolution version available from NDCC Tropical Storms Storm Surges - -- OCD and NDCC issue storm warningsSelectable by provinceLow resolution version available from NDCC Tsunamis - -- OCD relays warnings from the NOAA PTWCSelectable by provinceLow resolution version available from NDCC Volcanoes Probabilistic Lahars, ash fall, pyroclastic and lava flowsHigh/medium/low risk, areas at risk Information on hazards and recent activity for all volcanoes Selectable by volcanoClear links from PIVS website The Philippines Typhoon Durian, 30 TH November 2006 Casualties: 730+ Losses: US$1billion+ Heavy rainfall caused huge mudslides down flanks of Mayon Volcano Unlikely to ever determine full casualty and loss data as some areas buried under mud cannot be assessed

20 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Singapore Singapore – Fl Floods Probabilistic Flood hazardAt risk area Good information and warnings available No search function but can be viewed by road Well linked from PUB website but not from SCDF Severe Flooding, December 1978 Casualties: 7 Losses: US$10million Caused by extremely heavy monsoon rainfall Several thousand residents evacuated and disrupted

21 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Thailand Indian Ocean Tsunami,26 th December 2004 Casualties: Estimates suggest 8,000+ Losses: US$1.5billion A tsunami, up to 30m high in some places, was generated by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake off the northern tip of Indonesia Worst hit were popular tourist regions along the Andaman Sea coastline Accurate casualty numbers are hard to determine as many bodies washed out to sea Thailand – Fl, Ts Floods Probabilistic Flood hazardHigh/Med/Low risk DDPM hazard training academies and online resources. MRC map selectable by river regions, Chao Phraya map is not MRC map is easily available and well linked. Chao Phraya map may be linked. Tsunamis Historical Damaged area- Tsunami warnings, preparedness info and evacuation routes No search function Not directly available on Thai websites

22 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Vietnam Severe flooding, October- December 1999 Casualties: 650 Losses: US$800million Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from several storms 1.7million people displaced or otherwise affected 55,000 people left homeless Vietnam – Fl, Tr/Ss Floods Historical Flood height, maximum flood extentCentral maps, north and south maps CCFSC and VRC provide information in conjunction with MRC Selectable by areaNot obviously available online Tropical Storms Storm Surges None--- CCFSC and VRC both provide education and preparedness info - Warnings provided on the CCFSC website

23 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Provision of earthquake hazard information

24 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Provision of flood hazard information

25 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Provision of landslide hazard information

26 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Provision of tropical storm hazard information

27 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Map of tsunami hazard information level

28 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Provision of volcano hazard information

29 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Background The availability of mapped high res hazard data underpins sustained economic development –Informed risk management decisions need to be made at all levels of society: from individuals, communities, corporations, city administrations, regional and national governments Hazard data needs to be disseminated – in particular online –Hazard data should be regularly updated where climate change is altering hazard levels or there is improved science –Data also needs to be generated for indicative future hazard – to inform long term planning/infrastructure decisions Backed by strong risk education 29

30 CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. TM Implications of the hazard information deficit Cyclone Nargis in May 2007 highlighted the implications of a situation where hazard data is unavailable No flood hazard maps in the Irrawaddy Delta –People did not know they lived in a storm surge flood zone –No evacuation plans –No monitoring of cyclone forecasts As a result c 100,000 died – through an information deficit Economic and health consequences will endure for years 30


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