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© DIE, 22.9.20051 Asian Drivers and Anchor Countries: The Research Agenda Tilman Altenburg, German Development Institute, Bonn OECD Development Centre Paris, 16 March 2006
© DIE, 22.9.20052 Chinas and Indias growth relevant for World GDP growth Global financial markets Worldwide division of labour Trade flows, terms of trade Investment flows Resource depletion Global climate change Geopolitical balance of power etc.
© DIE, 22.9.20053 Focus on two GDI research topics: 1.Impact on the Global Governance Arquitecture 2.Implications for German foreign policy and development cooperation – the Anchor Country Project
© DIE, 22.9.20054 Impact on the Global Governance Arquitecture 1. What will be the role of China and India as global governance actors ? In which fields of global governance will both countries engage actively (and where more passively)? What is their agenda-setting capacity and ability to mobilize other countries?In which fields of global governance will both countries engage actively (and where more passively)? What is their agenda-setting capacity and ability to mobilize other countries? How do they conceptualize national interests, their role as regional and/or global powers? Position towards cooperative multilateralism, the UN, etc. Do they perceive themselves as speakers of all developing countries? New alliances among emerging countries? Role of G20 etc.How do they conceptualize national interests, their role as regional and/or global powers? Position towards cooperative multilateralism, the UN, etc. Do they perceive themselves as speakers of all developing countries? New alliances among emerging countries? Role of G20 etc. What will be the role of new global governance actors, e.g. private sector and NGOs in China and India, how do they perceive their legitimacy, etc.What will be the role of new global governance actors, e.g. private sector and NGOs in China and India, how do they perceive their legitimacy, etc. To what extent do they build up effective and coherent institutions to deal with their new international roles?To what extent do they build up effective and coherent institutions to deal with their new international roles?
© DIE, 22.9.20055 Impact on the Global Governance Arquitecture 2. Does the emergence o China and India challenge global governance concepts? To what extent are existing global governance concepts able to capture the rise of China and India?To what extent are existing global governance concepts able to capture the rise of China and India? After the power shift towards private actors in the West, will intergovernmental governance be strengthened again?After the power shift towards private actors in the West, will intergovernmental governance be strengthened again? 3. How will China and India impact on international development policy? How do China and India shape their own development policy?How do China and India shape their own development policy? Both countries have not pursued (Post-) Washington Consensus strategies. Will they try to influence strategic debates in international organizations to promote own development concepts (Beijing Consensus)?Both countries have not pursued (Post-) Washington Consensus strategies. Will they try to influence strategic debates in international organizations to promote own development concepts (Beijing Consensus)?
© DIE, 22.9.20056 Policy research: Cooperation with Anchor Countries Point of departure: Some emerging countries … grow fast, reduce poverty fast (even challenge economic sectors in the North) have access to global financial markets, good ratings, high foreign exchange reserves, much less interest in loans from development banks => less need for FC Have excellent national experts => less need for TC Start engaging as donors in other developing countries. ODA questioned by constituency in OECD and in emerging countries. Demand for equal partnership. Consequences for foreign and development policy? Phase out?
© DIE, 22.9.20057 Policy research: Cooperation with Anchor Countries German notion of development policy as Global Structural Policy (in addition to poverty reduction): development of global institutions and cooperative international regulations to deal with global problems/ global public goods => China, India and others are important players: Anchor Countries: 15 important players in GSP (unlike MICs, NICs) = 2/3 worlds poor; CO2 Reduction. WTO, … Largest (or two largest) economies of their respective region. In most cases congruent with regional political powers, members of G20 Assumption: we need to strengthen ties, build normal relationships, not mainly based on DC
© DIE, 22.9.20058 Policy research: Cooperation with Anchor Countries Six country case studies: China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria Principles: aid effectiveness + global public goods + partnerships + subsidiarity Strengthening partnerships. Twinning arrangements; institutional exchange programmes, ongoing dialogue, => the issue of coherence. Triangular development cooperation? How to link policy dialogue and development programmes?
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