Presentation on theme: "Kiichiro Fukasaku OECD Development Centre Thailand-OECD Seminar on Aid for Trade: Meeting New Challenges, Bangkok, 24 September 2007 ASEAN Economic Integration."— Presentation transcript:
Kiichiro Fukasaku OECD Development Centre Thailand-OECD Seminar on Aid for Trade: Meeting New Challenges, Bangkok, 24 September 2007 ASEAN Economic Integration and Trade-Related Assistance
2 Key Messages 1.The greater integration of CLMV countries into the regional and global markets is an important process for narrowing the development gap with ASEAN-6. 2.For CLMV to reap the full benefits of integration, it is important to strengthen the private sectors production capacity. 3.Aid for trade can complement CLMVs own efforts to address supply-side constraints and strengthen policy formulation and implementation capacities. 4.Monitoring and evaluation can help support various initiatives undertaken at both bilateral and regional levels and improve their effectiveness.
3 Managing the integration of CLMV into the regional and global markets poses a major challenge... Realising expected benefits: –Better access to markets, FDI and knowledge –Gains from more efficient resource allocation and larger economies of scale –Greater incentives to sustain domestic reform Addressing concerns over: –Adjustment of domestic firms to greater competition (weak supply response, limited diversification) –Economies in transition (non-competitive SOE sector, structural unemployment, social safety nets) –Impact on government revenues
4 …because the development gap remains large between ASEAN-6 and CLMV… The aggregated population of CLMV corresponded to almost 40 % of ASEAN-6 in 2006, but their trade share amounted to only 7 % in the same year. Per-capita incomes in CLMV are much lower than most of ASEAN-6; for instance, the per- capita income in Vietnam was still roughly a fourth of Thailands at the 2005 exchange rate and nearly 40% in PPP terms.
5 The need to narrow the development gap has been increasingly recognised… ASEAN Vision 2020 (1997) –the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to be realised by 2020 (brought forward to 2015) with free trade in goods and services, free flow of skilled labour and freer flow of capital –ASEAN implemented AFTA in 1992, AFAS in 1995 and AIA in 1998, with longer time frames for fulfilling obligations granted to CLMV
6 ASEANs own efforts to narrow the development gap have recently attracted more political attention… The launch of the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI, 2000) The Hanoi Declaration on Narrowing the Development Gap for Closer ASEAN Integration (2001)
7 ASEANs own efforts are also supported by donors… The IAI Work Plan was approved in 2002 for the six-year period of July 2002 – June 2008, with focus on 4 priority areas, namely, –Infrastructure development (transport and energy); –Human resource development (public sector capacity building, labour & employment and higher education); –Information and communications technology; and –Promoting regional economic integration (trade in goods and services, customs, standards and investment) in CLMV countries In addition to ASEAN-6, 11 donor countries and agencies have also supported IAI Work Plan projects by providing financial assistance.
8 ASEAN has further strengthened its own efforts… Declaration of ASEAN Concord II (2003) –Deepening and broadening the integration of ASEAN states shall be accompanied by technical and development co-operation in order to address the development divide … –The Vientiane Action Programme (VAP, 2004-2010) –The IAI Work Plan has been broadened under the VAP to include the poorer sub-regions in ASEAN-6.
9 Other measures includes… The ASEAN Integrated System of Preferences (ASIP, 2005) –Preferential market access targeted for exports originating from CLMV and provided by ASEAN-6 on voluntary and bilateral basis Mekong Basin Development –ASEAN Mekong Basin Development Cooperation (AMBDC, 1995) –ADB Greater Mekong Sub-region (ADB-GMS, 1992)
10 In a nutshell, trade-related development assistance is critical for Promoting ASEAN economic community building Supporting CLMVs own efforts to reap the full benefits of integration
11 Aid for Trade Objectives Make trade more effective for development Help build supply-side capacity and trade- related infrastructure Help facilitate, implement and adjust to trade reform and liberalisation Assist regional integration Assist smooth integration into the world trading system; and Assist in implementation of trade agreements Source: WTO Aid for Trade Task Force Recommendations (WT/AFT/1, 27/07/2006)
12 Aid for Trade as defined by the WTO Task Force Trade-Related Infrastructure Building Productive Capacity Trade-Related Adjustment Other Trade-Related needs Trade Policy Regulations Trade Development If explicitly identified as trade-related priorities in the recipient countrys national development strategies As defined by the WTO/OECD Joint Database
13 Three broad AfT categories 1. Trade policy and regulations (TPR) 2. Building productive capacity (BPC) (including trade development for non-DAC reporting countries and agencies) 3. Trade-related infrastructure (TRI) (energy, transport and telecom)
14 ODA and Aid for Trade Commitments Source: OECD/DAC CRS database; WTO/OECD database Note: USD billion in 2004 constant prices
15 Global Aid-for-Trade Commitments by Category Source: OECD/DAC CRS database; WTO/OECD database Note: USD million in 2002-2005 average, constant 2004 prices
17 ODA and AfT to Southeast Asia cum.2002-2005, USD million (commitments) in constant 2004 prices
18 AfT to Southeast Asia annual ave. 2002-2005, USD million (commit) in constant 2004 prices 3471 59 954 2458
19 AfT to Southeast Asia* by Donors annual ave. 2002-2005, USD million (commit) in constant 2004 prices Total AfT TPRBPCTRI BilateralJapan215742671886 Germany16006694 France9937225 Multi- lateral IDA50917170322 ADB271917685 * ASEAN (7)
20 Requirements for Effective Monitoring Develop PRSP, DTIS and government strategies Set up a medium-term budget framework budget allocation to each sector Sectoral allocation of aid Identify gaps and duplications Performance evaluation according to Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness
21 WTO Process of Global Monitoring at Three Levels Global data on financial commitments and disbursements - Analysis of global trends - Comparable data across time and countries Donors self-assessments - Tracking fulfillment of pledges - Finer detail on Aid for Trade coverage In-country assessments - Connecting measurement to national strategies
22 CLMV can also offer useful lessons… Three of CLMV are signatories of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness –Cambodia and Vietnam have taken part in the 1 st Baseline Survey on Monitoring the Paris Declaration –Laos has yet to join the survey, but it has established with 22 donors the Vientiane Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (2006) CLMV experience with multi-donor assistance (e.g.) –The Integrated Framework in Cambodia (> Laos) –The Mekong Private Sector Development Facility (MPDF)
23 Concluding Remarks Mainstreaming trade into support to infrastructure and productive sectors is key Ensuring the neutrality of Aid for Trade More co-ordination and specialisation among donors needed
24 Concluding Remarks (cont) To make regional reviews work, it is necessary to… - develop aid tracking schemes from commitments to disbursements - engage major non-traditional donors - ensure participation of private-sector stakeholders