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Chile: A Bias for Hope Javier Santiso Chief Economist / Deputy Director OECD Development Centre Latin American Economic Outlook Conference Vittorio Corbo.

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Presentation on theme: "Chile: A Bias for Hope Javier Santiso Chief Economist / Deputy Director OECD Development Centre Latin American Economic Outlook Conference Vittorio Corbo."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chile: A Bias for Hope Javier Santiso Chief Economist / Deputy Director OECD Development Centre Latin American Economic Outlook Conference Vittorio Corbo President, Central Bank of Chile Paris 29 th January 2007

2 2 Chile: The rise of possibilismI Institutional anchoringII ConclusionsIII

3 3 Latin America has experienced macroecomic improvements … Latin AmericaTotal Emerging Markets Inflation Source: OECD Development Centre, Based on: IMF Statistics (%)

4 4 Fiscal Balance by Country %-2%0%2%4%6% Brasil Colombia Peru* México Venezuela* Argentina* Chile* … but Chiles macroeconomic management has been exemplary: The fiscal anchoring Argentina Peru Brazil Colombia Chile Venezuela Mexico Debt as % of Exports Average Debt ratios as Share of Exports Source: OECD Development Centre, Based on IMF, World Bank, National Data % of GDP

5 5 Chiles insertion in the international scene is remarkable compared to other emerging economies Mexico Chile Venezuela Uruguay Argentina Colombia Peru Brazil Trade openness in 2005 Source: OECD Development Centre, Based on: Intracen and Index of Economic Freedom (Wall Street Journal). Based on: UNCTAD and Intracen.

6 Num. periods ARGENTINABOLIVIACOLOMBIACOSTA RICACHILE EL SALVADORMEXICOPERUURUGUAY Return of Democracy Evolution of Pension Funds in Latin America (in % of GDP) Gradualism and Continuism: The example of Pensions Reforms % Source: Javier Santiso, Latin Americas Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free Marketeers. MIT Press Based on the Inter-American Development Bank

7 7 Chile: The rise of possibilismI Institutional anchoringII ConclusionsIII

8 8 Institutional anchoring: A key driver of possibilism Source: Mariano Tomassi. The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring Public Policies in Latin America

9 9 Institutional anchoring: A key driver of possibilism Source: Mariano Tomassi. The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring Public Policies in Latin America

10 10 Institutional anchoring: A key driver of possibilism Source: Mariano Tomassi. The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring Public Policies in Latin America

11 11 Chile: The rise of possibilismI Institutional anchoringII ConclusionsIII

12 12 A bias for hope: The blessings of Democracy Average Source: Javier Santiso, Latin Americas Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free Marketeers. MIT Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2006 Based on the Inter-American Development Bank Democratic regimes in Latin America since transition ( ) ColombiaVenezuelaPeruMexicoArgentinaBrazilChile Years

13 13 A bias for hope: The blessings of Democracy Source: Mariano Tomassi. The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy. Journal of the Latin American Economic Association. Spring 2006.

14 14 A bias for hope: The blessings of Democracy Congressional Capability Index (1-3 scale) Policy Index (1 - 4 scale) Congressional Capabilities and the Quality of Policies Source: IADB Politics of Policies Report, 2006 and UNDP, 2005 Chile

15 Chile: A bias for hope Javier Santiso Chief Economist / Deputy Director OECD Development Centre Latin American Economic Outlook Conference Vittorio Corbo President, Central Bank of Chile Paris 29 th January 2007


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