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MAHLON “CHUCK” KENNICUTT II ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR)

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1 MAHLON “CHUCK” KENNICUTT II ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR)
FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS BY MAHLON “CHUCK” KENNICUTT II PRESIDENT SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR) FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS This presentation and the associated white paper are intended to catalyze a dialogue on the role of international cooperation in optimizing national investments in Antarctic science. There is a long and distinguished history of cooperation and coordination by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), as a leader and coordinator of international Antarctic science and the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP), as an association of providers of Antarctic science logistical and infrastructure support. The impetus for discussions at this time: the global financial crisis of 2008, especially rises in the price of fuel (which proved to be temporary), brought into sharp focus the economic imperatives for international coordination in support of scientific programs; improved coordination and partnerships have the potential to lessen environmental impacts and enhance the preservation of Antarctica; there is great potential for scientific synergies that transcend national programs; and SCAR and COMNAP, in partnership, will be stewards of one or more aspects of the legacy of the International Polar Year

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Introduction IPY Science Science Directions
Science Support Opportunities Summary PRESENTATION OUTLINE Introduction IPY Science Science Directions Science Support Opportunities Summary

3 THE IMPERATIVE Financial - Global financial crisis and spike in the price of fuel Synergy - Opportunities for coordination and partnerships Environment - Improved environmental performance IPY Legacy - Preserving and Building on the Legacy of the IPY The impetus for discussions at this time: the global financial crisis of 2008, especially rises in the price of fuel (which proved to be temporary), brought into sharp focus the economic imperatives for international coordination in support of scientific programs; improved coordination and partnerships have the potential to lessen environmental impacts and enhance the preservation of Antarctica; there is great potential for scientific synergies that transcend national programs; and SCAR and COMNAP, in partnership, will be stewards of one or more aspects of the legacy of the International Polar Year

4 Disclaimer “Scientists from the RAND Corporation have created this model to illustrate how a “home computer” could look like in the year However much of the needed technology will not be feasible for the average home. Also the scientists readily admit that the computer will require not yet invented technology to actually work, but 50 years from now scientific progress is expected to solve these problems.”… 1954 Future casting is uncertain at best!

5 THE ART OF FUTURE GAZING
Innate uncertainties in predictions Investments in science are national enterprises Processes for setting scientific priorities are highly variable Future directions are dependent on the outcome of “in-progress” research Trajectories can be non-linear or even discontinuous – technology and science can be decoupled Predicting future directions in Antarctic science is difficult at best, as investment in science is often decided by each nation in very different ways. Innate uncertainties in predictions Investments in science are national enterprises Processes for setting scientific priorities are highly variable Future directions are dependent on the outcome of “in-progress” research Trajectories can be non-linear or even discontinuous – technology and science can be decoupled

6 TRENDS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH
Increasingly complex questions and technologies Earth system science approach Interdisciplinary framework Data intensive investigations Transcontinental or region-wide investigations A critical element of a dialogue on international cooperation in Antarctica, is matching operational practices and capabilities with the demands of today’s science while considering how Antarctic science will evolve in the future. The advent of new technologies, evolution and change in scientific foci, and advances in knowledge are likely to change logistical needs and the mix of support requirements for the conduct of science in Antarctica. Better understanding and recognition of trends in Antarctic science will allow National Programs to plan for the future and allocate resources in anticipation of these developments. The growing demands of Antarctic science bring operational challenges for all nations and the opportunities for mutually beneficial partnerships and coordination are great. TRENDS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH Increasingly complex questions and technologies Earth system science approach Interdisciplinary framework Data intensive investigations Transcontinental or region-wide investigations

7 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH Through the Prism of the International Polar Year 2007-2008
The Antarctic community is in the midst of a well-coordinated international effort and dialogue that in large measure will determine the future directions of Antarctic science. The International Polar Year (IPY) has identified important scientific questions to be addressed and developed an extensive portfolio of projects. The IPY portfolio provides a unique “window” on the future of Antarctic science. Due to the short timeframe in which IPY projects were funded and implemented, many projects begun during the IPY will continue well beyond it. IPY scientific planning and outcomes have in many ways set a course for polar science for years to come. This community-wide effort, conducted over several years, can be used to inform discussions about the facilitation of international cooperation.

8 IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO Well coordinated international effort
Extensive multi-year planning by the polar community Researcher driven identification of important scientific questions Planning included consideration of logistics Limitations: not all were funded, information is qualitative, by design characteristics were pre-determined Well coordinated international effort Extensive multi-year planning by the polar community Researcher driven identification of important scientific questions Planning included consideration of logistics Limitations: not all were funded, information is qualitative, by design characteristics were pre-determined

9 IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO The planning process encouraged multi-national, integrated programs Programs addressed the IPY themes: status, change, global linkages, new frontiers, vantage point (and human dimensions) Classified based on portion of the earth system being studied The planning process encouraged multi-national, integrated programs Programs addressed the IPY themes: status, change, global linkages, new frontiers, vantage point (and human dimensions) Classified based on portion of the earth system being studied

10 IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO 76 of 230 projects in Antarctica or in both polar regions 15% were identified as Antarctic projects 18% identified as bi-polar Arctic – 66% Antarctic – 15% Antarctic/bipolar – 18% 76 of 230 projects in Antarctica or in both polar regions 15% were identified as Antarctic projects 18% identified as bi-polar IPY Project Database

11 IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO Over 2500 participants
Partnerships of 2 to 24 countries (avg. = 10) Teams of 4 to 1878 scientists (avg. = 37) Average = 10 Number of Projects Over 2500 participants Partnerships of 2 to 24 countries (avg. = 10) Teams of 4 to 1878 scientists (avg. = 37) Number of Countries IPY Project Database

12 System Component Studied
IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO System Component Studied People - 7% Atmosphere – 15 % Space – 13% Ice – 16% Land – 22% Oceans – 30% IPY Project Database

13 Sorted by Scientific Disciplines
IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO Sorted by Scientific Disciplines Life Sciences - 30% Physical Sciences – 52%* GeoSciences – 18% * - note SCAR Physical Sciences includes glaciology and climate

14 TARGETS OF SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATIONS
Climate change/global warming Ecosystem structure/functioning Census of living resources and biodiversity Astronomy and near-earth space science Recovery of paleo-climate records Satellite observations Remote sensing and mapping of the continent above and below the ice. Ice balance and sea level Sub-glacial environment hydrology and biogeochemistry Southern ocean and coastal oceanography Climate change and global warming (weather, UV radiation, and ozone depletion) Ecosystem structure and functioning (pelagic, benthic, terrestrial, marine, and microbial) Census of living resources and biodiversity (mammals, birds, penguins, vegetation, and fish) Astronomy and near-earth space science Recovery of paleo-climate records (sediment and ice cores), ice and sea level (sea ice, ice sheets, and ice shelves)

15 MAJOR SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES
Enter and sample subglacial environments Establish atmospheric and oceanic observing networks Determine the nature and history of sub-ice basement geology in East Antarctica Assess the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Recover the oldest ice core record of climate Describe regional and temporal variability in Antarctic climate Entry and sampling of subglacial environments; Establishing atmospheric and oceanic observing networks for forecasting the behavior of the coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere system; Discovering the nature and history of the sub-ice basement geology in East Antarctica; Assessing the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS); Obtaining the longest possible ice core record of climate history (>1 myr); Determining detailed regional and temporal variability in Antarctic climate;

16 MAJOR SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES
Measure upper atmosphere physics Define the pre-Pleistocene history of Antarctica Refine ice sheet mass balance, stability, and global sea level estimates Recover paleo-records in the interior of Antarctica Understand evolution and biodiversity in Antarctica Study life in the cold and dark Map biological habitats, ecosystems and organism distributions in the Antarctic Measure upper atmosphere physics Define the pre-Pleistocene history of Antarctica Refine ice sheet mass balance, stability, and global sea level estimates Recover paleo-records in the interior of Antarctica Understand evolution and biodiversity in Antarctica Study life in the cold and dark Map biological habitats, ecosystems and organism distributions in the Antarctic

17 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles. Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability. IPY Project Database

18 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles. Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability. IPY Project Database

19 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles. Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability. IPY Project Database

20 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories. Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability. IPY Project Database

21 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories. Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability. IPY Project Database

22 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories. Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability. IPY Project Database

23 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi-instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites). People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS IPY Project Database

24 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi-instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites). People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS IPY Project Database

25 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT
Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi-instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites). People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS IPY Project Database

26 SCIENCE SUPPORT Ships – icebreakers, ice strengthened vessels, (including deployment and recovery of buoys), inflatable boats, and drilling capabilities Field Stations – existing stations, new stations and field camps Air Transportation – fixed wing aircraft (inter- and intra-continental) and helicopters Land Transport – land vehicles, snow terrain vehicles and inland traverse support

27 SCIENCE SUPPORT Drilling capability – ice, rock and sediment drilling and coring Observatories* - multi-instrumented platforms, automated weather stations, air monitoring networks, AUVs, ROVs, submarines and satellites (rockets) Others – fuel depots, GPS, and radars Note: increased utilization of automated observatories requires support for deployment, maintenance, and repair; more complex packages of sensor; increasing power demands, and increased needs for data collection, storage and transmission * Note: increased utilization of automated observatories requires support for deployment, maintenance, and repair; more complex packages of sensor; increasing power demands, and increased needs for data collection, storage and transmission

28 DATA AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Stewardship of data and information is critical and essential Data are a valuable and irreplaceable resource Computers are ubiquitous in Antarctic science Computer usage will not only continue but accelerate in the future Increasing demands for computing infrastructure and support

29 DATA AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT (cont.)
Enhancement of the existing DIM infrastructure will be needed to effectively discover, access, use, store, archive and protect data The next generation DIM system must be interoperable with other global infrastructures and initiatives Observing systems and networks require computers for the analysis of large data sets Future scientific demands will require an Antarctic Data Management System and the role of DIM in support of science will grow significantly

30 OPPORTUNITIES FOR COORDINATION AND PARTNERSHIPS
Shared infrastructure and logistics Enhanced geographic coverage Common technologies Standardization of methodologies International sample archives Networked stations and facilities

31 Shared Infrastructure Astronomy & Astrophysics from Antarctica
EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Shared Infrastructure Astronomy & Astrophysics from Antarctica China’s Dome A in 2011 US - South Pole Telescope

32 EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Shared Logistics DROMLAN
The Dronning Maud Land Air Network The aim of the Dronning Maud Land Air Network (DROMLAN) is to provide an intercontinental air-link from Cape Town to destinations within Dronning Maud Land (DML) available to any member country of COMNAP and SCAR for science-related activities, including logistics. This regular air-link will improve the accessibility and will extend the length of the summer season for all activities of national operators but not for tourist activities. This new air network facilitates communication and the transportation of scientists and equipment between Cape Town and Dronning Maud Land, and between the scientific stations and field locations within Dronning Maud Land. It is supported by a consortium of the eleven national programmes that have stations or operations in Dronning Maud Land. The network connects the 3000 metre ice runway at Novo Air Base, close to the Russian Novolazarevskaya Station, to Cape Town International Airport by an inter-continental flight. This flight, in an Ilyushin 76TD cargo /passenger aircraft, is operated by the Antarctic Logistics Centre International (ALCI). The Novo runway acts as a hub from which feeder flights by ski-equipped Antonov-2, Dornier 228, Twin Otter or Basler (BT-67) aircraft can connect to other stations and field locations within Dronning Maud Land. A new 3000 metre ice runway has been commissioned by Norway at Troll Station. From mid December to the end of January the Novo runway (~550 masl) suffers from extensive surface melting and has to be closed. An alternative ice runway (~1300 masl) at the Norwegian Troll Station is currently being prepared that will not suffer from surface melting and will be able to operate throughout the summer.

33 Enhanced Geographic Coverage AGAP - ANTARCTICA’S GAMBURTSEV PROVINCE
EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Enhanced Geographic Coverage ICECAP AGAP: Antarctica’s Gamburtsev Province Exploring the history of the East Antarctic ice sheet and lithospheric structure of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains are primary goals of the International Polar Year (IPY). Scientists from several nations are working together to launch a flagship program to explore a major mountain range buried by a large continental ice sheet and bounded by numerous subglacial lakes. The combined projects under the AGAP partnership are multi-national and multi-disciplinary and include aerogeophysics, traverse programs, passive seismic experiments and ice core and bedrock drilling. The surveys are targeted at understanding the tectonic origin of these enigmatic mountains to provide crucial new inputs into ice sheet and climate models and provide key site survey support for the ice and bedrock drilling efforts. The international team will address four fundamental questions: 1) What role does topography play in the nucleation of continental ice sheets? 2) How are major elevated continental massifs formed within intraplate settings but without a straightforward plate tectonic mechanism? 3) How do tectonic processes control the formation, distribution, and stability of subglacial lakes? 4) Where is the oldest climate record in the Antarctic ice sheet? ICECAP - Investigating the Cryospheric Evolution of the Central Antarctic Plate Researchers with the ICECAP project are flying an upgraded World War II-era DC-3 aircraft with a suite of geophysical instruments to map the thickness of the ice sheet and measure the texture, composition, density and topography of rocks below the ice. The data will help them model East Antarctic ice stability, forecast how the ice might react to climate change, and show its potential impact on global sea level. They also hope to discover the oldest deposits of ice, which would indicate the best sites for drilling ice cores and reconstructing past climate. The ICECAP team — the University of Texas at Austin’s Jackson School of Geosciences, the University of Edinburgh, the University of Tasmania, and the Australian Antarctic Division AGAP - ANTARCTICA’S GAMBURTSEV PROVINCE

34 Magnetically Conjugate Instrument Networks
EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Common Technologies SuperDARN Radars Magnetically Conjugate Instrument Networks SuperDarn - Super Dual Auroral Radar Network An international Radar network for studying the Earth's upper atmosphere, ionosphere and connection into space. ICE STAR - Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research Near-Earth space (geospace) is an integral part of the Earth system, providing the material link between the Sun and Earth, primarily through the polar regions. A goal of the ICESTAR Programme is to create an integrated, quantitative description of the upper atmosphere over Antarctica, and its coupling to the geospace environment. ICESTAR “Linking near-Earth Space to the Polar Regions”

35 Standardization of Methodologies
EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Standardization of Methodologies SASSI- Synoptic Antarctic Self-Slope Interactions Australia Brazil China France Germany Italy Japan Norway Russia Spain UK SASSI is the 6th major scientific research project coordinated by the International Antarctic Zone Programme as a contribution to the International Polar Year. Theme 1: SASSI will provide a unique synoptic snapshot of the marine environment of the Antarctic continental shelf and slope, including physical (iAnZone), biogeochemical (GEOTRACES, SOLAS, IMBER) and biodiversity (CoML, GLOBEC) measurements. This delivers a baseline for assessing current ocean climate processes, effectively a legacy against which to measure future change. Theme 2: SASSI will deliver understanding of continental shelf and slope processes (a critical contributor to global climate variability) to adequately allow their accurate representation in climate models, that can then be used to predict this variability. Interannual and seasonal variability will be documented for the first time in many locations. Theme 3: SASSI is designed to understand the role of the physical, biological and biogeochemical polar processes in global climate, including the efficiency of the biological pump in the carbon cycle and the carbon budget. The planned snapshot will help us to assess present-day conditions and likely future changes in the context of global modes of variability such as Antarctic Circumpolar Waves, the Southern Annular Mode, and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation. Theme 4: SASSI will make observations in geographical regions never intensively studied. The first sub-ice observations using moored instrumentation, under-ice floats, and AUV/ROVs have the potential to radically alter our view of the Antarctic system. SASSI - Long-term scientific monitoring and sustained observations of environmental change in the physical, chemical, geological and biological components

36 International Sample Archives SCAR-MarBIN Dataportal
EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS International Sample Archives SCAR-MarBIN Dataportal of Taxonomic data Collection CAML - Census of Antarctic Marine Life – investigate the distribution and abundance of Antarctica’s vast marein biodiversity to develop a benchmark for the benefit of humankind. Supported by the Sloan Foundation The CAML is an ambitious 5- year project that will focus interest on the icebound oceans of Antarctica preceeding, and during, the IPY in 2007/08. Its philosophy is to integrate knowledge across all regions, biomes, habitats and fields of study. The project will utilise currently unworked taxonomic collections, in addition to purpose designed field studies, in fulfilling its objectives. It will make use of techniques of modern molecular biology to solve evolutionary and ecological questions, and will transmit its understanding of the great Southern Ocean to the wider public though a website (www.caml.aq) and active public outreach program. Plans for a preliminary synthesis of the results of the fieldwork during the IPY will be generated at a CAML workshop in mid-2008. While papers will continue to be published for many years, the main synthesis will occur within about 18 months of the completion of the fieldwork, as part of the autumn 2010 schedule to produce the first Census of Marine Life. SCAR-Marine Biodiversity Information Network (SCAR-MarBIN) – Regional OBIS Node for the Antarctic (OBIS - Ocean Biogeographic Information System) SCAR-MarBIN is the companion-project of the CAML. SCAR-MarBIN establishes and supports a distributed system of interoperable databases, forming the Antarctic Regional OBIS Node, under the aegis of SCAR. SCAR-MarBIN compiles and manages existing and new information on Antarctic marine biodiversity by coordinating, supporting, completing and optimizing database networking. This information will in turn be sent to larger biodiversity initiatives such as OBIS - the information component of the Census of Marine Life (COML)- and GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility). SCAR-MarBIN data policy protocols align with the Antarctic Treaty (Art. III.1) and IPY requirements, as well as data management protocols of GBIF and OBIS. Data Access and Archival Identification

37 EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Station and Infrastructure Networks
Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS) A Model for King George Island?

38 The future is in our hands!
CONCLUSIONS The future is often unpredictable Scientific ideas and societal issues will drive future research directions Research will become more complex, holistic, interdisciplinary, international, technology intensive, and often require continent-wide solutions Data and Information system demands will increase There are great opportunities for coordination, partnerships, and synergy The future is in our hands!

39 QUESTIONS ?


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