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1 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS BY MAHLON CHUCK KENNICUTT II PRESIDENT SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH.

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Presentation on theme: "1 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS BY MAHLON CHUCK KENNICUTT II PRESIDENT SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS BY MAHLON CHUCK KENNICUTT II PRESIDENT SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR)

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Introduction IPY Science Science Directions Science Support Opportunities Summary

3 THE IMPERATIVE Financial - Global financial crisis and spike in the price of fuel Synergy - Opportunities for coordination and partnerships Environment - Improved environmental performance IPY Legacy - Preserving and Building on the Legacy of the IPY

4 Scientists from the RAND Corporation have created this model to illustrate how a home computer could look like in the year 2004. However much of the needed technology will not be feasible for the average home. Also the scientists readily admit that the computer will require not yet invented technology to actually work, but 50 years from now scientific progress is expected to solve these problems.… 1954 Disclaimer

5 THE ART OF FUTURE GAZING Innate uncertainties in predictions Investments in science are national enterprises Processes for setting scientific priorities are highly variable Future directions are dependent on the outcome of in- progress research Trajectories can be non-linear or even discontinuous – technology and science can be decoupled

6 TRENDS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH Increasingly complex questions and technologies Earth system science approach Interdisciplinary framework Data intensive investigations Transcontinental or region- wide investigations

7 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH Through the Prism of the International Polar Year 2007-2008

8 Well coordinated international effort Extensive multi-year planning by the polar community Researcher driven identification of important scientific questions Planning included consideration of logistics Limitations: not all were funded, information is qualitative, by design characteristics were pre- determined IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

9 The planning process encouraged multi-national, integrated programs Programs addressed the IPY themes: status, change, global linkages, new frontiers, vantage point (and human dimensions) Classified based on portion of the earth system being studied IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

10 76 of 230 projects in Antarctica or in both polar regions 15% were identified as Antarctic projects 18% identified as bi-polar Arctic – 66% Antarctic – 15% Antarctic/bipolar – 18% IPY Project Database IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

11 Over 2500 participants Partnerships of 2 to 24 countries (avg. = 10) Teams of 4 to 1878 scientists (avg. = 37) Number of Countries Number of Projects Average = 10 IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO IPY Project Database

12 System Component Studied Atmosphere – 15 % Ice – 16% Land – 22% Oceans – 30% Space – 13% People - 7% IPY Project Database IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

13 Life Sciences - 30% GeoSciences – 18% Physical Sciences – 52%* * - note SCAR Physical Sciences includes glaciology and climate Sorted by Scientific Disciplines IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

14 Climate change/global warming Ecosystem structure/functioning Census of living resources and biodiversity Astronomy and near- earth space science Recovery of paleo- climate records Satellite observations Remote sensing and mapping of the continent above and below the ice. Ice balance and sea level Sub-glacial environment hydrology and biogeochemistry Southern ocean and coastal oceanography TARGETS OF SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATIONS

15 MAJOR SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES Assess the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Recover the oldest ice core record of climate Describe regional and temporal variability in Antarctic climate Enter and sample subglacial environments Establish atmospheric and oceanic observing networks Determine the nature and history of sub-ice basement geology in East Antarctica

16 Measure upper atmosphere physics Define the pre- Pleistocene history of Antarctica Refine ice sheet mass balance, stability, and global sea level estimates Recover paleo- records in the interior of Antarctica Understand evolution and biodiversity in Antarctica Study life in the cold and dark Map biological habitats, ecosystems and organism distributions in the Antarctic MAJOR SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES

17 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi- instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles. Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability. IPY Project Database

18 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi- instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles. Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability. IPY Project Database

19 REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi- instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles. Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability. IPY Project Database

20 Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories. Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability. REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT IPY Project Database

21 Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories. Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability. REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT IPY Project Database

22 Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories. Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability. REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT IPY Project Database

23 Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi- instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites). People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT IPY Project Database

24 Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi- instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites). People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT IPY Project Database

25 Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi- instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites). People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT IPY Project Database

26 SCIENCE SUPPORT Ships – icebreakers, ice strengthened vessels, (including deployment and recovery of buoys), inflatable boats, and drilling capabilities Field Stations – existing stations, new stations and field camps Air Transportation – fixed wing aircraft (inter- and intra-continental) and helicopters Land Transport – land vehicles, snow terrain vehicles and inland traverse support

27 Drilling capability – ice, rock and sediment drilling and coring Observatories* - multi-instrumented platforms, automated weather stations, air monitoring networks, AUVs, ROVs, submarines and satellites (rockets) Others – fuel depots, GPS, and radars * Note: increased utilization of automated observatories requires support for deployment, maintenance, and repair; more complex packages of sensor; increasing power demands, and increased needs for data collection, storage and transmission SCIENCE SUPPORT

28 DATA AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT Stewardship of data and information is critical and essential Data are a valuable and irreplaceable resource Computers are ubiquitous in Antarctic science Computer usage will not only continue but accelerate in the future Increasing demands for computing infrastructure and support

29 DATA AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT (cont.) Enhancement of the existing DIM infrastructure will be needed to effectively discover, access, use, store, archive and protect data The next generation DIM system must be interoperable with other global infrastructures and initiatives Observing systems and networks require computers for the analysis of large data sets Future scientific demands will require an Antarctic Data Management System and the role of DIM in support of science will grow significantly

30 OPPORTUNITIES FOR COORDINATION AND PARTNERSHIPS Shared infrastructure and logistics Enhanced geographic coverage Common technologies Standardization of methodologies International sample archives Networked stations and facilities

31 EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Chinas Dome A in 2011 Astronomy & Astrophysics from Antarctica US - South Pole Telescope Shared Infrastructure

32 DROMLAN Shared Logistics EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

33 ICECAP AGAP - ANTARCTICAS GAMBURTSEV PROVINCE EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Enhanced Geographic Coverage

34 SuperDARN Radars Magnetically Conjugate Instrument Networks ICESTAR Linking near-Earth Space to the Polar Regions EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Common Technologies

35 SASSI - Long-term scientific monitoring and sustained observations of environmental change in the physical, chemical, geological and biological components EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Standardization of Methodologies

36 SCAR-MarBIN Dataportal of Taxonomic data Collection Identification Data Access and Archival International Sample Archives EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

37 Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS) A Model for King George Island? EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Station and Infrastructure Networks

38 CONCLUSIONS The future is often unpredictable Scientific ideas and societal issues will drive future research directions Research will become more complex, holistic, interdisciplinary, international, technology intensive, and often require continent-wide solutions Data and Information system demands will increase There are great opportunities for coordination, partnerships, and synergy The future is in our hands!

39 QUESTIONS ?


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