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Published byMelanie Cook Modified over 2 years ago

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Making an epidemic curve (epicurve) Preben Aavitsland (with a lot of help from Katarina Alpers, RKI)

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The epidemic curve Time components of an outbreak Shows –Start –End –Duration –Peak –Outliers Helps to form hypotheses on –Route of transmission –Probable exposure period –Incubation time

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The epidemic curve

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Histogram –Area proportional to number –No space between columns –One population X-axis = time –Start before epidemic, continue after –Interval < 1/4 of incubation period Y-axis = number of cases –Usually one square = one case Easy to make in Excel

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Point source No of cases Time Duration ~ Incubation time

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Continous source Mean IP No of cases Weeks

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Intermittent source No of cases Time (days)

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Human to human transmission Zeit No of cases Generation time

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Probable exposure time Time 1 Median onset time % 50%Probable exposure time Median incubation time (Intervall between first and last disease onset) No of cases

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Probable exposure period Time Probable exposure period minimum incubation time maximum incubation time No of cases

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Two ways of making epicurves in Excel The square method –Turn a work sheet in to squares –Fill in each patient as a square The chart method –Make a table of onset times –Use the chart wizard –Make a histogram (by removing intervals between bars in a bar chart)

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