Presentation on theme: "World-Wide Market at $100 Billion Solar for our Nations Energy Independence Stephen Levy."— Presentation transcript:
World-Wide Market at $100 Billion Solar for our Nations Energy Independence Stephen Levy
Solar can supplement base plants during sunny daytime It can be integrated into new housing roofs It can lower your energy bill It cannot replace base plants Its power cannot be saved without separate storage It is not a panacea
2/8/2014PEMDA Proprietary 3 Data from data collected at airport over 10 year period Jan Mar June Sept Dec Solar isolation averaged over 10 years Variance X10
Cheaper solar: This solar concentrator uses mirrors and lenses to focus light, reducing the amount of semiconductor material needed and cutting costs. The rectangular module is mounted with the same hardware as conventional flat solar panels. Credit: Soliant Energy, Inc. Patent Pending
Panel Costs per Wpa-SiCdTeCIGS Conversion efficiency7%11%12% Superstrate or substrate$.071$.045$.041 Active layer Depreciation & operations$.065$.034$.038 Thin-film materials (75% util)$.005$.023$.083 Packaging of panels$.161$.103$.094 Manufacturers gross margin$.300$.210$.260 Total Panel Price per Wp$.60$.42$.52 Study of Potential Cost Reductions Resulting from Super-Large-Scale Manufacturing of PV Modules Ken Zweibel (Technical Monitor) authors Marvin S. Keshner of HP and Rajeewa (Rajiv) Arya of Arya International, Inc. Sub-contract No. ADJ-3-33631-01, October 2004
2/8/2014PEMDA Proprietary 18 0.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Cost of solar PV Panels per watt Inverter cost as % Solar Panels 20.0 $1.00 $2.00$3.00 $4.00 $5.00 Present Inverter Cost per watt is $0.707 According to the referenced paper*, the cost of the inverter should be $0.120 per watt *Study of Potential Cost Reductions Resulting from Super-Large-Scale Manufacturing of PV Modules
Assumptions: Retail kWh rates, 2% annual rate escalation, 6% cost of capital, 30y asset life, 33% installation cost subsidy Ref: DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION OF VERY-LARGE SCALE MANUFACTURING OF CIGS SOLAR CELLS AND RELATED PRODUCTS J. R. Tuttle, T. Schuyler, E. Choi, and J. Freer, DayStar Technologies, Inc., Installation Cost ($/W) Years to Payback Present Value of Investment ($/W) $516$0.74 $412$1.05 $39$1.36 $26$1.67 $13$1.98
2/8/2014PEMDA Proprietary 21 Self-Sustaining Residence I Sun powers the photovoltaic modules Power electronics control the power into the house and gases into the tanks Water through the cells electrolyzes the water (18% efficiency demonstrated) Hydrogen and oxygen collected and stored in tanks At night, hydrogen and oxygen pass into the fuel cell reforming the water, creating electric power and heat Shortages can be supplied by the electric utility Solar roof Oxygen Hydrogen waterFuel Cell Electronics
2/8/2014PEMDA Proprietary 22 Oxygen Hydrogen water Electronics Fuel Cell Recharge car overnight
2/8/2014PEMDA Proprietary 23 200 all-electric cars in a employee parking lot could supply 100 avg. homes with electricity for 3 days Electric Utility
Scenario 1 - status quo which is buying off shore Cost $8,000. Per home* 10,000,000 homes would be $80 Billion $60 Billion would go offshore Scenario 2 - success at home Cost $6,000. Per home** 10,000,000 homes cost $60 Billion funds remain here; we export 2/8/2014PEMDA Proprietary 24 Assumption: Energy Costs Rise, PV Becomes Attractive Installing a 6 kW system * based on purchase price of $6,000. plus $2,000. for transportation, resellers ** based on purchase price of $6,000
o Suntech Power has begun construction on a thin film R&D and manufacturing facility in Caohejing Hi-tech Park in Shanghai, China. manufacturing facility in Caohejing Hi-tech Park in Shanghai, China. o The first phase of the new plant is expected to begin operation in 2008 reaching 50MW of thin film solar cell production capacity in 2009. o Suntech currently projects a solar conversion efficiency of 6% to 9% and an initial production cost of $1.20 per watt (based on 6% solar conversion efficiency. o Thin film modules will be nearly 6 square meters in size.
2/8/2014 26 Why Knoxville? Workforce Low iron quartz Aluminum Low cost electricity Low cost of living Central location Flagship University ORNL TVA Transportation Hub
2/8/2014 29 QUARTZ A major ingredient of the Spruce Pine rock is quartz. Through the years, quartz was always discarded as waste. Now it is recovered through froth flotation. Comprising about 25% of the rock, the quartz has now become one of the most strategic minerals of the entire world. Because of its extreme purity, it is used in several critical process steps during the manufacture of computer semiconductors (chips). At present, no other quartz in the world can match the processed quartz purity from the Spruce Pine District. EVERY computer chip in the world uses Spruce Pine quartz in its manufacturing process.