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Telecommunications Ecosystems A peek into the future of -Technology -Market -Business Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam,

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Presentation on theme: "Telecommunications Ecosystems A peek into the future of -Technology -Market -Business Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Telecommunications Ecosystems A peek into the future of -Technology -Market -Business Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow – October-November 2008

2 Evolution: Bio vs Tech&Mkt Ecosystems From Convergence to Variety My View of Communications in 2015 Telecommunications Ecosystems

3 The Innovation Game Bacteria… Energy Innovation: for how long? The Pace of Innovation Thresholds and the rules of the Game

4 Internal Innovation Strong Control of Depl. Efficiency to compete Competition pushes value at the end client From Value Chains to Ecosystems Innovation VALUE EFFICIENCY …2000

5 Concurrent Innovation Strong Control of Depl. Shared Control on Root Scale advantage Competition is on price From Value Chains to Ecosystems Innovation PERCEIVED VALUE VALUE 2000 … NOW

6 Out of field Innovation Marginal-No Control of Depl. Mashed Value Creation Intermediation Advantage Competition is on biz Models From Value Chains to Ecosystems Innovation PERCEIVED VALUE VALUE NOW … Next Decade

7 Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem Market Ambient Tech

8 Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem Evolution Random + SelectionCreativity + Market Success Env.Share + variationsMarket share + release Internal Competition Dynamic Equilibrium External Competition New ConfigurationsNew Value Chains

9 Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem No Return thresholds Local OptimumProduction Process Energy Consumption Advantage of the small Economic Efficiency Discontinuity SpeciationDisplacement Cross Feedback Food ChainsValue Chains

10 From Convergence to Variety SSD 1 TB 200 TB 10s TB 50 ns Burst vs Streaming Bit/Vid Torrent Down vs Up Distribution Chain Sticker Energy Control

11 From Convergence to Variety Processing anywhere Low power cons/diss Ultra capacity fibred appliances Commodity Real time rendering Ambient awareness c GFlop 100 TFlop 100s PFlop 0.2%0.001% 2Tbps Interc. fabric Gbps Interc. F. 100sGbps Interc. F. WperGflop 28 Qbit 100 Qbit

12 Mpixel Size Resol Radio Semantics 2010 Contextual From Convergence to Variety ? Contx Sw Dvc

13 Pinpointing From Convergence to Variety ? Processes Own Pl

14 ? Smart M. From Convergence to Variety ? Mining Int N WISP

15 New Networks MULTIMEDIA PLATFORM DVB-H CONTENT ENGINE/DRM IPTVWEB MUSICGAMESVIDEO C2P IP-DSLAM (4.000) ADSL2+ ( ˜ 10Mbit/s) // OPTICAL PACKET BACKBONE OPTICAL PACKET METRO FTTC VDSL2 ( 50Mbit/s ) // IP- MSAN (ONU) GPON MULTISERVICE EDGE NODE (POP) PERSONAL COMMUNICATION PLATFORM MSG IMS VIDEO OVER IP VOIP HSSMSGDIRECTORY P2P STORAGE ICT SERVICES PLATFORM APPLICATIONS SOA UTILITY COMPUTING MESSAGING COLLABORATION MANAGED SERVICES STORAGE ON DEMAND DISASTER RECOVERY MESSAGE STORE B2B+C FTTH / B ( 100Mbit/s ) Service Centers FTTB Broadband Area Ultra Broadband Area // RAN - CN BBAN - CN BSS – OSS PLATFORM DATA WAREHOUSE SERVICE ASSURANCE WORK FORCE MANAGEMENT BILLING TRAFFIC & USAGE NETWORK NEUTRAL EM ERP NETWORK MANAGEMENT NETWORK DATA BASE CRM SERVICE DELIVERY CUSTOMER DATA BASE

16 New Networks: the Energy Challenge GWh Years Start of network digitalization End of network digitalization Energy consumption became a Key Issue Start ADSL deployment Actions on cooling and energy systems Start NGN2 deployment New challenge on energy saving Need of further actions on TLC equipments E TOT E TLC E TOT: total energy consumption from mains (TLC equipment, cooling, ausiliary systems) E TLC: energy consumption of TLC equipment Wireline network domain Appliances Power Consumpt.

17 New Networks WHN

18 New Services Mega… 2 Mpx 15 Mbps TV –HDTV - TrueLifeTV Digital Camera Display 16 Mpx 120 Mbps WQXGA NED Av. Bandwidth per home Home Bandwidth Giga… VDSL-3 HD channel 32 Mpx 240 Mbps SED Immersive video 8 Mpx 60 Mbps

19 New Services Mashed Service Architecture Rights Management Tracking Value SDK and SDK Mgt Cloud Computing

20 FUTURE CENTRE A peek into tomorrows ecosystems

21 Future Center: Ecosystems evolution Main site : Venice San Salvador People from T.I. with technical, economic, social skill Technology and Operations Consumer, Mobile and Top Client Divisions People from other Operators, Industry - CE – IT - Istitut post doct from all over the world Objectives: Identification of new biz opportunities in telecom enabled ecosystems Future Telecommunications Showcase

22 Future Center: Ecosystems evolution Disruptive Assumptions: Connectivity grows in pervasiveness and bandwidth At lower and lower price to end user Provided by many players some not in telecommunications Bandwidth is not a revenue generator, just an enabler Content grows in quantity and diversity value tends to decrease on content instance value tends to shift to content interpretation content exploiter are not the content owners Value chains embedded in Ecosystems Decreasing control on innovation Exploitation of the ecosystem fabric Foster and enabling are more important than Creating

23 Future Center: Ecosystems evolution Approach: - technology evolution scenarios in adiacent sectors - ecosystems evolution enabled by telecommunications - partnering with MIT, Institute for the Future, SantaFe Institute,… - working together with partners back home - 1 – 2 years max per project - open showcase, events, seminars, point counterpoint Results: Business Case and set up of Business Plan Seeding in Italy couching Innovation areas in TILab Seeding of offspring research centers

24 Future Center: Ecosystems evolution Themes: - Ecosystems modeling, technology and market roadmaps - Atoms and bits: connecting the physical and virtual world - MicroMachinery and distributed production - From massive distributed data to information Mash Ups - Digital (video) photography as social fabric - Life and lives in bits

25 Telecommunications 2015-A technology view Enabled by a varieties of infrastructures Smaller and smaller cells for wireless drops HWN Fiber core extending to the very edges Data center rather than Switching center based Burst rather than streaming (but for voice) 100 times todays traffic COMMUNICATIONS will BE:

26 Telecommunications 2015-A technology view Make-Believe Interfaces - 4k video (human resolution) - tactile sensation (silk, rough, wet…) Unlimited local storage (TB handheld) Flexible, programmable sensors Context awareness Metadata Supercrunchers – statistical analyses Edge Technology:

27 Telecommunications 2015-A user view Visual Personalised Contextualised No distinction between People, Information, Services Seamless fabric joining reality and Web Fading away of the Telephone Number Involving a variety of loosely coupled Actors COMMUNICATIONS will BE:

28 Telecommunications 2015-A Business view Physical connectivity as utility both few bigs and a multitude of small. Basically no space in between Different biz models for Bigs and Small Flat rate on connectivity, both for w and wless Growing importance of top $ versus bottom $ Added connectivity value among apps Metadata as significant revenue stream COMMUNICATIONS will BE:

29 My view of Communications in 2015

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34 The vineyard Wine tasting Buy! Your diet Wine History My view of Communications in 2015

35 Technologies Sensors/Awar Optical Tags Bar Codes/Sem DNA Markers Image Localiz RFID Print Elect OBJECTS Detection Systems Network Mirror Cars Hand readers Cell Phones/Ca Cell Phones NFC PERCEPTION From Atoms to Bits

36 Technologies OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Tourist Ag. Product Pr. Content Pr. Individ.WK Comm.WK Regulations A M B I E N T PERCEPTION From Atoms to Bits

37 Technologies OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Tourist Ag. Product Pr. Content Pr. Individ.WK Comm.WK Regulations A M B I E N T Ntw Pl/Host Google Snapfish Srv.Aggr. Track/V.A PERCEPTION CONNECTIV. Aggregators From Atoms to Bits

38 Technologies OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Tourist Ag. Product Pr. Content Pr. Individ.WK Comm.WK Regulations A M B I E N T Platforms Srv.Aggr. Track/V.A Aggregators PERCEPTION CONNECTIV. From Atoms to Bits

39 Technologies OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Tourist Ag. Product Pr. Content Pr. Individ.WK Comm.WK Regulations A M B I E N T Platforms Srv.Aggr. Track/V.A META Data C. Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. Serv.Prov.Aggregators PERCEPTION CONNECTIV. CONTEXT-MEANING From Atoms to Bits

40 Technologies OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Tourist Ag. Product Pr. Content Pr. Individ.WK Comm.WK Regulations A M B I E N T Platforms Srv.Aggr. Track/V.A META Data C. Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. Devices Logistics CRM PHARMA News/Mg Serv.Prov.Aggregators PERCEPTION CONNECTIV. CONTEXT-MEANING Industry COORDINATION From Atoms to Bits

41 Technologies OBJECTS Detection Systems Municpal. Tourist Ag. Product Pr. Content Pr. Individ.WK Comm.WK Regulations A M B I E N T Platforms Srv.Aggr. Track/V.A META Data C. Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. Devices Logistics CRM PHARMA News/Mg Serv.Prov.Aggregators PERCEPTION CONNECTIV. CONTEXT-MEANING Industry COORDINATION SOCIETY – ETICS - CULTURE From Atoms to Bits

42 Future Center: Ecosystems evolution

43 Disruptive Assumptions: Connectivity grows in pervasiveness and bandwidth At lower and lower price to end user Provided by many players some not in telecommunications Bandwidth is not a revenue generator, just an enabler Content grows in quantity and diversity value tends to decrease on content instance value tends to shift to content interpretation content exploiter are not the content owners Value chains embedded in Ecosystems Decreasing control on innovation Exploitation of the ecosystem fabric Foster and enabling are more important than Creating

44 Future Center: Ecosystems evolution Themes: - Ecosystems modeling, technology and market roadmaps - Atoms and bits: connecting the physical and virtual world - MicroMachinery and distributed production - From massive distributed data to information Mash Ups - Digital (video) photography as social fabric - Life and lives in bits

45 TILab Working at the Future Centre Core FC Weekly brainstorming new ecosystem ecosystem presentation on site Monthly ecosystem report engaging the players – open event HY-Milestone Report: new biz models for new ecosystems Event: Partnering for competition YE-Milestone Report: Opportunities, Challenges to get there Event: The fabric for the future 5 of 1 leading 3 engaging 10 networking with 100

46 You at the Future Centre Open to other Companies participation One year committment Company pays for his researcher Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure Open to post-Doc enrolled in the Gold Program One year committment Telecom Italia provide a bourse Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure Fluency in English required

47 Thanks! Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow – October-December 2008 Get the full multimedia presentation from COMSOC at -> education > DLTwww.comsoc.org


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