Presentation on theme: "1 Origins of Operations Research: Science at War E. P. Visco Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]"— Presentation transcript:
1 Origins of Operations Research: Science at War E. P. Visco Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]
2 Agenda Earliest Beginnings & Men of Science From the Civil War to the Great War The Birth of Operations Research World War II & Korea Post War-Korea Insights and Ideas
3 Things That Are Younger Than Gene The Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War Lawrences Lady Chatterleys Lover & Ravels Bolero Mickey Mouse, Penicillin, Yugoslavia Audrey Hepburn and Sophia Loren(1934), Sean Connery (1930); Regis Philbin (1931); Leonard Nimoy The Empire State Building, Rockefeller Center, the Folger Library, the Jefferson Memorial, & the National Gallery of Art Color television & commercial television Hammetts The Maltese Falcon & The Thin Man The Star Spangled Banner as the US national anthem The George Washington Bridge, the Lincoln Tunnel, the Golden Gate Bridge, Hoover/Boulder Dam, Heathrow & JFK airports Jet airplanes, helicopters, & US Navy aircraft carriers Baseball all-star games (1933) & the Baseball Hall of Fame Social Security (1935), minimum wages for women, & the 40-hour work week Life magazine, Nylon, the ballpoint pen, electronic computers, transistors, chips, & magnetic recording tape Withholding income taxes, the atomic bomb & guided missiles The United Nations, NATO, & the Pentagon
4 The Whole Story OR/OA are old Combat analyst was first; some work was at Hq Early: weapons, transport, communications (things) Later tactics, concepts of operation, organization Dominance of Hq analysis
5 From the Dawn of War and Science Diades (c. 330 BCE) Archimedes ( BCE) Bacon (1248) Leonardo da Vinci ( ) Niccoló Tartaglia ( ) John Napier ( ) Benjamin Franklin (1775) US Civil War (balloon) The Great War (CW, tank)
6 What Was The Beginning? WW II? WW I? Diades? Archimedes? 20th Century OR authors –Morse & Kimball, 1950 –Hillier & Lieberman, 1967 –Wagner, 1975
7 Operational Science The Great War Lanchester –The Equations: Bah! Humbug! –Aircraft in Warfare, Edison –Naval Consulting Board –>40 ideas: no impact George Patton, Jr. –No combat experience –Casualty potential of rifle ammunition A. V. Hill –Anti-aircraft gunnery,
8 Many Men and Women Adolf Hitler Chamberlain H. E. Wimperis A. P. Rowe Robert Watson-Watt Benito Mussolini Winston Churchill Marconi F. A. Lindemann A. V. Hill
9 European Situation Nazis become second largest political party in Germany Hitler becomes Chancellor Hitler becomes Dictator Hitler becomes Fuhrer Hitler introduces military conscription Early 1930s Sep 1930 Jan 1933 Mar 1933 Aug 1934 Mar 1935
10 The British Cause for Alarm Trends not going well in Europe Germany is rattling swords Germany is building a bomber fleet The bomber always gets through Stanley Baldwin, 10 Nov 1932 Limited resources for defense Cities in England are: –High density population centers –High density industrial centers
11 Home Land Defense European shoreline 1,044 miles Total shoreline 2,275 miles Kill/Defend Box 300 x 600 miles Channel Distances miles
12 H. E. Wimperis: Scientific Advisor Air Ministry The Committee for the Scientific Study of Air Defense Mission To consider how far advances in scientific and technical knowledge can be used to strengthen the present methods of defense against hostile aircraft A. P. Rowe: Research Scientist Secretary
13 Criteria for Committee Selection Have recognition as an eminent scientist Be of strong character Have capacity for making decisions Have natural sympathy for and identification with, military men Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists E. V. Appleton--Greatest English expert on propagation of Radio Waves
14 The Tizard Committee Sir A. V. Hill 1922 Nobel Prize Medicine Lord P. M. S. Blackett 1948 Nobel Prize Physics Radical (Anti-fascist) Naval Officer Orthodox (Conservative) Army Officer Anti-Aircraft Gunnery Conservative (Establishment) Military Pilot 28 Jan 1935
15 Sir Henry T. Tizard Education: Westminster & Oxford (Rutherfords Student) Fellow of the Royal Society (Physics) Secretary, Dept of Scientific & Industrial Research Rector, Imperial College of Science and Technology (1929) Chairman of the Tizard Committee (28 Jan 1935) The best scientific mind that … England ever applied... to war C. P. Snow, Science and Government, 1960
16 P. M. S. Blackett ( ) (Patrick Maynard Stuart) Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge WW II, chief advisor on operational research British Navy Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 for research in cosmic rays Professor of physics at the Imperial College of Science and Technology of the University of London ( ). Author, Atomic Weapons and East-West Relations (1956) and Studies of War (1962) The British father of Operations Research
17 An Inquiry to Science From: Air Ministry To: The (National Physical Laboratory) –Is it possible to create some form of death ray using a radio beam to disable remote targets? From: The Radio Research Lab (National Physical Laboratory) To: Air Ministry –No, but we may be able to detect aircraft using radio methods
18 Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists Professor Tizard Air Marshal Dowding
19 The Pairing of Teams Bawdsey Station (radar research and testing) –Scientists & engineers –Serving officers –Finding blips on the screen Biggin Hill Experiment (Fighter Intercept) –Serving officers –Scientists & engineers –Finding the target –Voice from the Box –Tizzy Equations –Fighter Command OR Section
20 Chain Home Radar (1935) Air Ministry Experimental Stations (AMES 1)
21 Operations in the Filter Room (plotting, filtering, telling) Early Command & Control Operational Control at Fighter Command
22 Situation of the Late 1930s Mar 1936Germany takes Rhineland May 1936Mussolini takes Ethiopia Sep 1938Hitler appeased at Munich Oct 1938Germany takes Sudetenland Mar 1939Germany takes Czech. Sep 1939Germany takes Poland
23 Improvements in Defense (1939) 20 Stations RAF trained at Bawdsey station See A/C 15,000, 100 miles Fighter intercept from Biggin Hill Chain Home Low Airborne Radar
24 Combat Air Strengths, Summer 1939
25 Results of the Tizard Committee Determined the range, bearing, and elevation of non- cooperative targets Provided friendly signal marks for our own aircraft Introduced concept of information fusion and ground control intercept Gave aircraft the ability to hunt in black space Made possible submarine detection at night Intro blind navigation, provided magic eye for A/C Improved accuracy for air defense weapons Created the radio fuze Made effective use of the fighter force (Battle of Britain, beginning 10 July 1940)
26 London Paid a terrible price
27 Results of the Battle of Britain 1,
28 Patrick Maynard Stuart Blackett ( ) Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge WW II, chief advisor on operational research British Navy Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 (cosmic rays) The British Father of Operations Research WWI Battles –Falkand Island –Jutland
29 Operational Research Scientists at the Operational Level … very many war operations involve considerations with which scientists are specially trained to compete, and in which serving officers are in general not trained. Note on Certain Aspects of the Methodology of Operational Research In the course of repeated operations … most of the possible variations of tactics will be effectively explored... derivatives will eventually be discovered and... improved tactics will become generally adopted.
30 Blacketts Influence at Bomber Command Limited # bombers Land bombing Against submarines Confrontation
31 Coastal Command Analyses Open Research on –Targets –Weapons –Tactics –Equipment –Strategy Effectiveness of Air Attacks Short Sunderland
32 Blacketts Circus (10) at Anti Aircraft Command Three physiologists Two mathematicians One Army officer Two mathematical physicists One surveyor One general physicist
33 Contributions to Anti Aircraft Command Gun-Laying Radar Apportionment Maintenance Training Togetherness Effectiveness London
34 P. M. S. Blacketts OR Thoughts For Military--you have to think scientifically about your own operations For Scientists--sound military advice only comes when the giver convinces himself that if he were responsible for action, he would act so himself
35 Scope of Operational Research Clearest lessons of war experience … really big successes of operational research groups are often achieved by the discovery of problems which had not hitherto been recognized as significant. Recollections of Problems Studied How can OR help Operations research groups can help to close the gap between the new instrument or weapons as developed in the R&D establishments and its use in the actual conditions of war.
36 Birthing in the US Mine Warfare ORG Pearl, 7 Dec 41 –Wargaming –Mine-laying Anti-Submarine Warfare ORG –Early emphasis on Atlantic Army Air Forces OA –26 Sections –250 analysts Office of Field Service, OSRD –Emphasis on Pacific –Operation Starvation
37 Adoption of OR by US Forces Navy was first MAJ Leach, AAF Hap Arnold AAF Eighth Air Force
38 First AAF OA Section 8th Bomber Command, Oct 42 Chief: John Harlan Others: Arps, Alexander, Tuttle, Youden, Robertson Reported to Gen Eaker Worked for CoS Access to all information How can I put twice as many bombs on my targets?
39 Some Projects & Accomplishments Improved bombs on target Bomb on lead bombardier Radar countermeasures Improved estimates of force requirements Position Firing for aerial gunners Stabilization of dust on African air fields Operation STARVATION
40 Bombing Tactics Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting Question: What is the best technique? 1000 DMPI Technique Percent On Group Leader On Squadron Leader Independent
41 Bombing Tactics Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting Question: What is the best technique? 1000 DMPI Technique Percent On Group Leader24 % On Squadron Leader11.8 % Independent 8.3 %
42 9th Army Air Force Nick Smith, junior analyst Rail cutting algorithm No Ball targets
43 Analysts Notebook
45 More Notes
46 No More Notes (after this one)
47 Some Results of Rail Cutting: Impact on Overlord 2 nd SS Panzer Division: 17 days/450 miles Battle Group, 275 th Infantry Division: 3 days/30 miles + 3 more days to reach front 2 Infantry Battalions arrived on bicycles
48 Shipbuilding : Merchant Ships or Escort Ships Problem: Increase movement of war time supplies: limited shipbuilding capacity Question: Build more merchant or more escort ships Each escort ship saves 2 to 3 merchant ships per year Faster convoy speed decreases convoy losses Increased convoy size decreases ship losses significantly Air escort protection decreases submarine effectiveness
49 Operation Starvation, 1945 LCDR Ellis Johnson, MWORG: Mines are Weapons of Strategy ADM Nimitz & MG LeMay (21 st Bomber Command) 21,000 sea mines laid; 4323 sorties 5.7% of B-29 sorties 961 Japanese ships damaged or sunk (2 million tons)
50 US Successes –Convoy Protection –Submarine Search –Surface Ship Detection –Denial of Sea Lanes Operations Research Army Navy Army Air Force –Bomb Accuracy –Bomb Selection –Pursuit Tactics –Radar Employment –Jungle Warfare –Amphibious Opns –Artillery Accuracy –Ballistics Operations Analysis Sections Individual Analysts OSRD Individual Analysts OSRD Operations Research Group
51 Immediate Post WWII Operations Evaluation Group (OEG) –WWII continuity The RAND Corporation –Defense of the nation –Siting of air bases The Johns Hopkins University Operations Research Office –The Army in the field –Korea HQ, USAF Operations Analysis Weapons System Evaluation Group
52 Combat Analyst After World War II Korea –ORO + Canadian + UK –OEG (the fleets) Vietnam –Army Concept Team –ARCOV –MACOV
53 Other Early Institutions Private sector (for profit) –Technical Operations, Inc. –Arthur D. Little, Inc. –Melpar, Inc. –Ramo-Wooldridge Corp. –Lockheed –… Universities –The Johns Hopkins University –Case Institute of Technology –MIT –...
54 The Combat Analyst Since Vietnam Gulf War –CENTCOM Hq team (staff) –DNA WMD effects team –No US operations analysts deployed until after the fighting –1st UK Armoured Div OR team Former Yugoslavia –ARRC UK team
55 What OR Analysts Do Analyze the results of operations or exercises to determine the effectiveness of tactics, the influence of weapons on tactics and the tactics on weapons Predict the results of future operations Analyze the efficiency of organizations or methods E. C. Williams Determine the operational effectiveness of weapons and equipment
56 Characteristic of Outstanding Military Operations Research Analysts Has historical, tactical, and technical expertise Is an outstanding gatherer, coordinator, and gifted speaker Has potent mathematical, logic, & Operations Research skills Uses superb imagination, graphic and artistic skills Demonstrates overwhelming quantities of persistence and determination Likes to drink beer (especially Guinness Stout) Happiness is being assigned as an Operations Research Analyst
57 Operations Research Sir Henry Tizard and General Sir Bernard Montgomery
58 The Three DUSA(OR)s
59 Some of the Trails Wayne P. Hughes, Jr, ed, Military Modeling for Decisions, M ilitary Operations Research Society, 1997 Philip M. Morse & George E. Kimball, Methods of Operations Research, Military Operations Research Society, 1998 (reprint) James Pinney Baxter III, Scientists Against Time, Little, Brown & Company, 1948 R. V. Jones, The Wizard War, Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, 1978 Charles P. Snow, Science and Government, Harvard University Press, 1961 P. M.S. Blackett, Studies of War. Nuclear and Conventional, Hill &Wang, 1962 Ronald W. Clark, Tizard. The MIT Press, 1963 David Zimmerman, Top Secret Exchange, The Tizard Mission and the Scientific War, McGill-Queens University Press, 1996
60 More of the Trails Ronald W. Clark, The Rise of the Boffins. Phoenix House LTD,1962 Air Ministry. Origins and Development of Operational Research in the Royal Air Force. Her Majesty s Stationary Office,1949 A. P. Rowe, One Story of Radar. Cambridge University Press, 1948 J. G. Crowther, Statesmen of Science, The Cresset Press, 1965 Keith R. Tidman, The Operations Evaluation Group: A History of Naval Operations Analysis, Naval Institute, 1984 Bernard Osgood Koopman, Search and Screening: General Principles with Historical Applications, Military Operations Research Society, 1946 (reprint ) Charles M. Sternhell & Alan M. Thorndike, Antisubmarine Warfare in World War II, Aegean Park Press, 1947 (reprint) J. G. Crowther & R. Whiddington, Science at War, Philosophical Library Inc., 1948 Charles R. Shrader, History of Operations Research in the United States Army: Volume I: ; Volume II: ; Volume III: , Government Printing Office
61 Comments and Query US analysts now seen as needed in the field: Iraq & Afghanistan What we do now does not resemble what they did then! Either what we do now is not operations research or operations research is defined so loosely than any logical analytic process is operations research! What do you think is the correct answer?
62 Some Homilies I think the essential prerequisite of sound military advice is that the giver must convince himself that if he were responsible for action, he would himself act so. The first thing is to realize in war we have to do not so much with numbers, arms and maneuvers, as with human nature.
63 Finally Read, specially military history. Have fun at what you do. What to read? –C. P. Snow –Blackett –Neustadt & May –John Keegan –Ernest & Trevor Dupuy –S. L. A. Marshall –McCloskey & Trefethen –McCloskey & Coppinger –McCue –Anything on nonlinearity, etc.
64 Thanks for Listening Those of you who stayed awake may have learned something new Those of you who dozed off didnt miss much Stay awake for the second show!
65 The Partys Over The second show starts now…!