Presentation on theme: "Introduction to System of Systems"— Presentation transcript:
1Introduction to System of Systems Dr. Michael S. McCoyBoeing Technical Fellow17 September, 2007
2What is A System?A System is a collection of entities, elements, or components, e.g., people or machines, that act and interact together toward the accomplishment of some logical end.A system performs one or more functions.A system is composed of interacting components.A system performs functions not performable by its components.A system has a boundary, separating it from everything else.-- These are systems --This chart describes the essential characteristics of a system.You can declare virtually anything a system and sometimes it’s useful to do so.If it performs a function, it’s a system.Even a paperweight, whose function is to hold down a stack of paper, has components at the molecular level.Small-scale HardwareLarge-scale HardwarePeople & Organizations
3What is A System of Systems? A System of Systems (SoS) is a “super-system” made up of elements – each of which is itself a complex, independent system -- that interact to achieve a common goal.SoS elements (i.e., the systems) can and do operate independently.An SoS evolves – functions are added/removed/changed with experience.An SoS exhibits emergent behavior not attributable to any element (system).An SoS is geographically distributed – elements exchange information only.-- Are These SoS? --YESYESSystems-of-systems should be distinguished from large but monolithic systems by the independence of their components, their evolutionary nature, emergent behaviors, and a geographic extent that limits the interaction of their components to information exchange . ...... Five principal characteristics are useful in distinguishing very large and complex but monolithic systems from true systems-of-systems.Operational Independence of the Elements: If the system-of-systems is disassembled into its component systems the component systems must be able to usefully operate independently. The system-of-systems is composed of systems which are independent and useful in their own right.Managerial Independence of the Elements: The component systems not only can operate independently, they do operate independently. The component systems are separately acquired and integrated but maintain a continuing operational existence independent of the system-of-systems.Evolutionary Development: The system-of-systems does not appear fully formed. Its development and existence is evolutionary with functions and purposes added, removed, and modified with experience.Emergent Behavior: The system performs functions and carries out purposes that do not reside in any component system. These behaviors are emergent properties of the entire system-of-systems and cannot be localized to any component system. The principal purposes of the systems-of-systems are fulfilled by these behaviors.Geographic Distribution: The geographic extent of the component systems is large. Large is a nebulous and relative concept as communication capabilities increase, but at a minimum it means that the components can readily exchange only information and not substantial quantities of mass or energy.Mark W. Maier, Architecting Principles for Systems-of-Systems, UA Huntsville,NOMajor League BaseballHardwareOughta BeInternational Air TravelJoint Theater Ops
4System of System Design Example Objective Describe an analytical process used to optimize assets, performance, cost and planned expenditures to integrate, revitalize and modernize a System of System Force Structure.
5Areas of ApplicationIntegrated Deepwater System – Optimize and rejuvenate the force structure of the U. S. Coast GuardFuture Combat Systems – Define an optimal Brigade Force structureP8A – Integrating a new aircraft into the fleetSBINet- Determine optimal coverage and coordination between sensor, communications, C2.General Navy Applications – formation of a carrier task forceAir Force Applications – formation of an air wing
6Analysis Approach Spiral Development Develop Capability NeedsThreat DefinitionC4ISR Information FlowAsset RolesScenario DefinitionCONOPS DevelopmentRequirements Generation & Mission AnalysisDecision Aiding AlgorithmsCommand & Control ArchitecturesCommunication Links and ProtocolsLogistics InfrastructureCommon SW Architecture/ModulesRequirement Generation.Mission Identification/analysisMission Scenarios DefinitionsRules of EngagementTarget AnalysisAsset AnalysisInfo Requirements/SourcesThreat AssessmentC4ISR Information FlowAnalysis of Alternatives, Technology Insertion, & Collaborative Innovation PlanSystem of Systems Analysis, Plan Synthesis, &Risk AnalysisSpiralDevelopmentRisk AssessmentAcquisition CostO&S CostLogistics & Training CostTotal Ownership CostTechnology & Acquisition PlanningTest & EvaluationNetwork Centric Operations Enable Systems of Systems
7Typical Force Structure Replacing44 cutters49 patrol boats46 patrol aircraft112 helicopters70 shore Command andControl stations UpgradingCommunicationsLogistics InfrastructureObjective is to replace all assets and schedule the implementation.
8U S Coast Guard Primary Missions LivingMarine ResourcesEnforcementAlienMigrant InterdictionOperationsGeneral DefenseGeneral LawSearch andRescueDrugInterdictionGeneral LawEnforcementGeneral DefenseOperationsSearch andRescueLivingMarine ResourcesEnforcementMaritime InterceptOperationsDetailedMissionAreaAlienMigrant InterdictionOperationsDrugInterdictionMaritimePollutionEnvironmentalOperationsThe Coast Guard has many missions to be performed. The Integrated Deepwater System is designed to define and acquire the appropriate future force structure to allow the Coast Guard to perform all of these missions in the most cost effective manner. This study plan details the method used to accomplish this task.InternationalIce PatrolForeign VesselInspectionLightering ZoneEnforcementDeployedPort Operations
12Analytical ApproachA study plan has been developed and implemented which uses operations research techniques to integrate existing (legacy) assets with new assets to determine the optimal force structure. This study plan starts with analysis of requirements and cost/affordability constraints and then passes these requirements to the Integrated Product Teams (IPTs). These IPTs determine the recommended surface and air assets along with shore based upgrades and C4ISR upgrades to all systems. Given these recommendations, a non-linear programming technique with linear cost and performance constraints is employed to determine the optimal combination of surface and air assets to be deployed in order to maximize performance and minimize cost.Once the future force structure has been defined, an implementation plan must be developed which plans the legacy system upgrades, new system acquisition and legacy system retirement. Because of the limited funding profile, the funding must be considered a constraint on a year by year basis. Therefore, the implementation planning procedure used is a dynamic programming technique which optimizes the number of assets available subject to the funding constraints. Sensitivity analysis has been performed and will continue to be exercised to explore alternative funding profiles. The final product of this step of the process is a schedule for implementing the acquisition of the new assets and facility upgrades.
13Asset Characteristics Trade Studies CONOPSCONLOG,Trade Studies SupportAir StudiesSurface StudiesC4ISR StudiesSensorsCommLogisticsConcept of OperationsAffordabilityOutputAsset Performance estimatesMission Performance contributionsMarginal improvement to missions given new or upgraded assets& C4ISRMissionAnalysisIn order for our surface, air, logistics and C4ISR IPTs to determine candidate upgrades and new assets, tools were developed to support trade studies to gain insight into the relative advantages and disadvantages of different assets. These trade studies helped define the asset candidates to be included in the roll-up optimization model. This effort continues throughout the life of the project to help refine design of new surface assets and evaluate new Concepts of Operations for deployment of the System-of-Systems.
14Area Of Responsibility Other Data EvaluatedIDSLCC# ProsecutionsRol-up1234Cost metricsPerformance metricsRegionaloperating cost# Prosecutionsper regionProgrammed Flight& Cutter HoursArea Of Responsibilityoperating cost# Prosecutions per Area of ResponsibilityAvg. Mission execution cost# Prosecutions bymission typeAsset Cost & PerformanceTechnicalReliabilityMarket AvailabilityProbability of success– Search and detect– Process– Intercept– ProsecuteAverage Mission Cost= $/FH or Programmed $ for Ships- Using this type of data along with the number of sorties or missions we can determine the Total system cost;Why isn’t the International Regions considered in this roll up- We decided to focus on the mission mix that represented 95% of the Coast Guard missions for determining how we mDriving system costDriver metricsCost estimatingRelationship estimatesUse Data To Determine Best Value SolutionPRELIMINARY
15DoD Application “DoD” Force Structure Problem Force DerivationDefine “Optimal Force Mix” to Integrate AssetsInputsAsset Performance CapabilitiesAsset AC&I and O&M Cost parametersMission Performance RequirementsAcquisition Budget over 20 yearsO&M Budget for each year.OutputsAsset Mix by AOR by QuarterAsset Deployment RequirementsAsset PerformanceExpected Mission Performance by AOR“DoD” Force Structure ProblemNetwork Connected EnvironmentCoordinated Command and ControlIntelligence sharingOptimal allocation of resources to max. effectivenessSystem of Systems Analysis and Synthesis Process Adapted to FCS, P-8A, and Other Programs
16Affordability and Implementation Planning Numberof assets3002502001501005020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022CRW-UAVMS-UAVSH-2GCN-235NSCGBCAPBC-130HH-65HH-60HU-25378270210110Implementation PlanAffordabilityAnalysisOnce an optimal force structure (target force structure) has been defined for the future end state, and implementation plan had to be developed which plans the retirement of legacy assets, acquisition of new assets and any upgrades to legacy assets needed to bridge the gap between retirement and replacement. In order to perform this task, the Contractor Strategy tool was developed to schedule asset acquisition, legacy asset enhancements and retirements based on the budget allocation for each year of the implementation period. This tool is rule based and designed to provide rapid response to changes in budget strategy, production strategy and priority of acquisition. This allows all of the IPTs to realize the interaction between decisions to allocate budgets to different priorities and budget strategies.Asset Acquisition Scheduling
17Effectiveness Evaluation Performance AssessmentDetermine performance by yearEmulate Customer ModelInputsNumber of Assets AvailableAsset Basing and ScheduleAsset CapabilityC4ISR ArchitectureLogistics (Availability)OutputExpected number of Missions PerformedUtilization Rate of AssetsMOEs defined in CustomerExpected relative performance to baselineForce Presence ModelQuikPerformance0.0000.5001.0001.5002.0002002200820142020202620322038TimeRelativePerformanceOptimalCAPAdverseP-RAAT V3.0 Asset Object ModelPlayerMissionAssetExamples:SARDRUGAMIOLMRGLESensorw/TracklistMECMS UAVGlobalSurface, Air and Space-based assets are individuallymodeled with their own sensors, and systemscommunicate through the “Global Tracklist”)Process Simulation of Coast Guard MissionsProcess Simulation of Missions
18Sample Scenario: SE Region (Notional) Area of Responsibilities (AOR)
19Sample Scenario: Modules (Notional) Command and ControlCommunication NetworkMiamiAssetsCubaTargetsSurveillance Satellite
20SampleSimulation Output: Percent Prosecuted and Detected (Notional) AORs
21Sample simulation assesses force structure performance Simulation SummarySample simulation assesses force structure performanceCapture multiple Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs)Traceable data available to support conclusionsAnimation facilitates Validation and VerificationAble to Simulate the complex architecturePlayer DynamicsCommunicationNetwork Centric OperationsGeographic limitationsLogistics
22Project SummaryWe developed a Systems of Systems Analysis and Synthesis approachWe demonstrated this approach on several programsWe derived one metric for synthesisWe showed that one models does not fit allWe are generalizing this process into a standard practice
24Analysis Components CONOPs, CONLOG, Force & C4ISR Structure Mission Implementation PlanForceStructureEffectivenessEvaluationCONOPs,CONLOG,& C4ISRMissionAnalysisForce StructureOptimizationAffordabilityNumberof assets3002502001501005020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022CRW-UAVMS-UAVSH-2GCN-235NSCGBCAPBC-130HH-65HH-60HU-25378270210110AOR Size ( L x W )Target Speed=5ktsLength (nm) =Width (nm) =AOR (sq nm)=60000OTU CompositionAssetNo.NameClassQtyAvailDutyCycle(hrs/day)Ant Ht(ft)Speed(knots)1National Security Cutter (NSC)Surf98%24282WHEC-378'95%80223WMEC-270'90%60204WMEC-210'100%18Patrol Boat -110'40256Patrol Boat Concept#17HH-65 DelphineAir80%5001258Alt. Helo Concept9Shipboard UAV (LAE)10Long Endurance UAV (HAE)5000035011Total OTU Elements=12XL(300 sqm)L(80 sqm)ML(40 sqm)M(8 sqm)MS(2 sqm)S(0.25 sqm)PIW(0.01 sqm)0.000.200.400.600.801.001.20Target Duration in AOR (hrs)Probability of Target Contact0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62000200520152025CapYearsAnother way of looking at the study plan is to consider it as a continuous cycle of analysis and design in which a force structure is defined, trade studies are performed for each component of the system in recommending the assets to be considered. Several models are employed to help define the optimal combination of assets to be acquired during the life of the system integration process. Once the assets are defined for the end-state force structure, the contracting strategy tool is used to first plan the implementation of the integration to achieve the end-state within budget, and then to perform sensitivity to the implementation plan constituting the affordability analysis.Once the implementation plan has been completed, an effectiveness analysis must be performed to ensure that the goal effectiveness criteria have been met. In order to do this, first a basing and schedule of deployment must be defined for each year to be analyzed. This includes determining the deployment schedule, maintenance schedule and adhering to the limiting performance capabilities of all assets, both legacy and new. Once the deployment schedule is defined, then the Rapid Architecture Assessment Tool is used to simulate a full years worth of performance. The measures of merit are the successful completion of missions. These measures of merit are compared to the system specifications and, when necessary, fed back to the design team for analysis and refinement.12112
25Deepwater Iterative Modeling Toolkit QuikNet (Evaluate Comm networks Performance)Comm NetPerformanceQuikIntel (compute Intel timeline and performance)QuikPersonnel (Define Personnel Transition)Quik_AC_LOG (compute Aircraft Availability)Comm Delay & ProbabilityConnectivityAcquisition Schedule with UpgradesPersonnel Flux based on AcquisitionMTTFMTBFMTTRQuikPerformance (Estimate Implementation Performance)AssetPerformanceQuikBasing (Define Air Station Basing)QuikForce Structure (Define Optimal Force Mix)Contracting Strategy Tool (Define Retirement and Acquisition StrategyAir & Surface AssetPerformanceOptimal Asset MixEstimated Performance over entire period of performanceAcquisition Schedule with UpgradesSensorDataQuik_PD(Compute Prob of Detection)Scenario Editor (Visualize Scheduled Deployment)QuikScheduler (Define Optimal Force Deployment)CONOPs &AssetPerformanceC4ISim(Visualize initial CONOPs)CAAT (C4ISR System-Level Performance Metrics and System Trades)Detailed Deployment Schedule per yearQuikSAR (AIR IPT support to evaluate Air Asset Trade Studies)AssetPerformanceUSCG MAROPSSIM (Evaluate Force Mix Performance)Python RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance)SLAMEM (Mission Model)Under DevelopmentQuik Presence(Define estimated presence in AORs)Air & Surface Asset Performance with C4ISR and Logistics SpecificationsIPT Support ToolsArena Rapid Architecture Assessment Tool RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance)Force Optimization ToolImplementation ToolAsset Scheduling ToolsPerformance Assessment ToolsHigh Fidelity System Performance by year