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Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 1 Introduction to System of Systems Dr. Michael S. McCoy Boeing Technical Fellow 17 September, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 1 Introduction to System of Systems Dr. Michael S. McCoy Boeing Technical Fellow 17 September, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 1 Introduction to System of Systems Dr. Michael S. McCoy Boeing Technical Fellow 17 September, 2007

2 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 2 What is A System? A System is a collection of entities, elements, or components, e.g., people or machines, that act and interact together toward the accomplishment of some logical end. A system performs one or more functions. A system is composed of interacting components. A system performs functions not performable by its components. A system has a boundary, separating it from everything else. -- These are systems -- Small-scale Hardware Large-scale Hardware People & Organizations

3 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 3 What is A System of Systems? A System of Systems (SoS) is a super-system made up of elements – each of which is itself a complex, independent system -- that interact to achieve a common goal. -- Are These SoS? -- Major League Baseball SoS elements (i.e., the systems) can and do operate independently. An SoS evolves – functions are added/removed/changed with experience. An SoS exhibits emergent behavior not attributable to any element (system). An SoS is geographically distributed – elements exchange information only. International Air Travel Joint Theater Ops Hardware

4 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 4 System of System Design Example Objective Describe an analytical process used to optimize assets, performance, cost and planned expenditures to integrate, revitalize and modernize a System of System Force Structure.

5 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 5 Areas of Application Integrated Deepwater System – Optimize and rejuvenate the force structure of the U. S. Coast Guard Future Combat Systems – Define an optimal Brigade Force structure P8A – Integrating a new aircraft into the fleet SBINet- Determine optimal coverage and coordination between sensor, communications, C2. General Navy Applications – formation of a carrier task force Air Force Applications – formation of an air wing

6 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 6 Threat Definition C4ISR Information Flow Asset Roles Scenario Definition Decision Aiding Algorithms Command & Control Architectures Communication Links and Protocols Logistics Infrastructure Common SW Architecture/Modules Risk Assessment Acquisition Cost O&S Cost Logistics & Training Cost Total Ownership Cost Requirements Generation & Mission Analysis Analysis of Alternatives, Technology Insertion, & Collaborative Innovation Plan System of Systems Analysis, Plan Synthesis, & Risk Analysis Technology & Acquisition Planning Test & Evaluation CONOPS Development Develop Capability Needs SpiralDevelopment Network Centric Operations Enable Systems of Systems Requirement Generation. Mission Identification/analysis Mission Scenarios Definitions Rules of Engagement Target Analysis Asset Analysis Info Requirements/Sources Threat Assessment C4ISR Information Flow Analysis Approach

7 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 7 Typical Force Structure Objective is to replace all assets and schedule the implementation. Replacing 44 cutters 49 patrol boats 46 patrol aircraft 112 helicopters 70 shore Command and Control stations Upgrading Communications Logistics Infrastructure

8 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 8 U S Coast Guard Primary Missions Detailed Mission Area Detailed Mission Area Environmental Operations Foreign Vessel Inspection Deployed Port Operations Lightering Zone Enforcement Maritime Intercept Operations Alien Migrant Interdiction Operations General Defense Operations General Law Enforcement Search and Rescue Drug Interdiction International Ice Patrol Maritime Pollution Living Marine Resources Enforcement Alien Migrant Interdiction Operations General Defense Operations General Law Enforcement Search and Rescue Drug Interdiction Living Marine Resources Enforcement

9 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 9 Mission Decomposition Example

10 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 10 Mission Flow Analysis

11 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 11 Mission Analysis Example

12 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 12 Analytical Approach

13 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 13 Asset Characteristics Trade Studies Trade Studies Support Air Studies Surface Studies C4ISR Studies Sensors Comm Logistics Concept of Operations Affordability Output Asset Performance estimates Mission Performance contributions Marginal improvement to missions given new or upgraded assets CONOPS CONLOG, & C4ISR Mission Analysis

14 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 14 Cost estimating Relationship estimates 1 Driving system cost IDS LCC Cost metrics 2 34 Driver metrics Probability of success – Search and detect – Process – Intercept – Prosecute Asset Cost & Performance Technical Reliability Market Availability # Prosecutions by mission type Avg. Mission execution cost # Prosecutions per Area of Responsibility Area Of Responsibility operating cost # Prosecutions per region Regional operating cost # Prosecutions Performance metrics Other Data Evaluated PRELIMINARY Use Data To Determine Best Value Solution Programmed Flight & Cutter Hours R o l l - u p

15 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 15 DoD Application Network Connected Environment Coordinated Command and Control Intelligence sharing Optimal allocation of resources to max. effectiveness DoD Force Structure Problem System of Systems Analysis and Synthesis Process Adapted to FCS, P-8A, and Other Programs Force Derivation Define Optimal Force Mix to Integrate Assets Inputs Asset Performance Capabilities Asset AC&I and O&M Cost parameters Mission Performance Requirements Acquisition Budget over 20 years O&M Budget for each year. Outputs Asset Mix by AOR by Quarter Asset Deployment Requirements Asset Performance Expected Mission Performance by AOR

16 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 16 Affordability and Implementation Planning Implementation Plan Affordability Analysis Number of assets CRW-UAV MS-UAV SH-2G CN-235 NSC GBC APB C-130 HH-65 HH-60 HU Asset Acquisition Scheduling

17 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 17 Performance Assessment Determine performance by year Emulate Customer Model Inputs Number of Assets Available Asset Basing and Schedule Asset Capability C4ISR Architecture Logistics (Availability) Output Expected number of Missions Performed Utilization Rate of Assets MOEs defined in Customer Expected relative performance to baseline Force Presence Model P-RAAT V3.0 Asset Object Model Player Mission Asset Examples: SAR DRUG AMIO LMR GLE Sensor w/ Tracklist Examples: MEC MS UAV Asset Sensor w/ Tracklist Global Tracklist Surface, Air and Space-based assets are individually modeled with their own sensors, and systems communicate through the Global Tracklist Surface, Air and Space-based assets are individually modeled with their own sensors, and systems communicate through the Global Tracklist Effectiveness Evaluation ® ) Process Simulation of Coast Guard Missions Process Simulation of Missions

18 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 18 Sample Scenario: SE Region (Notional) Area of Responsibilities (AOR)

19 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 19 Surveillance Satellite Assets Targets Communication Network Sample Scenario: Modules (Notional) Cuba Miami Command and Control

20 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 20 SampleSimulation Output: Percent Prosecuted and Detected (Notional) AORs Percent Prosecuted and Detected

21 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 21 Simulation Summary Sample simulation assesses force structure performance –Capture multiple Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) –Traceable data available to support conclusions –Animation facilitates Validation and Verification –Able to Simulate the complex architecture Player Dynamics Communication Network Centric Operations Geographic limitations Logistics

22 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 22 Project Summary We developed a Systems of Systems Analysis and Synthesis approach We demonstrated this approach on several programs We derived one metric for synthesis We showed that one models does not fit all We are generalizing this process into a standard practice

23 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 23 Back-Up Slides

24 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 24 Implementation Plan Force Structure Effectiveness Evaluation CONOPs, CONLOG, & C4ISR Mission Analysis Force Structure Optimization Affordability Analysis Number of assets CRW-UAV MS-UAV SH-2G CN-235 NSC GBC APB C-130 HH-65 HH-60 HU AOR Size ( L x W )Target Speed=5 kts Length (nm) =300 Width (nm) =200 AOR (sq nm)=60000 OTU Composition Asset No. Name Asset Class QtyAvail Duty Cycle (hrs/ day) Ant Ht (ft) Speed (knots) 1National Security Cutter (NSC)Surf198% WHEC-378'Surf095% WMEC-270'Surf090% WMEC-210'Surf0100% Patrol Boat -110'Surf295% Patrol Boat Concept#1Surf0100% HH-65 DelphineAir180% Alt. Helo ConceptAir0100% Shipboard UAV (LAE)Air195% Long Endurance UAV (HAE)Air095% Total OTU Elements= XL(300 sqm) L(80 sqm) ML(40 sqm) M(8 sqm) MS(2 sqm) S(0.25 sqm) PIW(0.01 sqm) Target Duration in AOR (hrs) Probability of Target Contact Cap Years Analysis Components

25 Dr. Michael S. McCoy/INCOSE_091707/ pg 25 Deepwater Iterative Modeling Toolkit QuikForce Structure (Define Optimal Force Mix) Contracting Strategy Tool (Define Retirement and Acquisition Strategy QuikBasing (Define Air Station Basing) QuikSAR (AIR IPT support to evaluate Air Asset Trade Studies) QuikScheduler (Define Optimal Force Deployment) Arena Rapid Architecture Assessment Tool RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance) QuikPersonnel (Define Personnel Transition) QuikPerformance (Estimate Implementation Performance) Python RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance) Optimal Asset Mix Acquisition Schedule with Upgrades Estimated Performance over entire period of performance High Fidelity System Performance by year Detailed Deployment Schedule per year Scenario Editor (Visualize Scheduled Deployment) USCG MAROPSSIM (Evaluate Force Mix Performance) QuikNet (Evaluate Comm networks Performance) IPT Support Tools Force Optimization Tool Implementation Tool Asset Scheduling Tools Performance Assessment Tools C4ISim(Visualize initial CONOPs) Under Development Quik_PD(Compute Prob of Detection) Quik_AC_LOG (compute Aircraft Availability) SLAMEM (Mission Model) Quik Presence(Define estimated presence in AORs) Comm Delay & Probability Connectivity MTTF MTBF MTTR Comm Net Performance Asset Performance Air & Surface Asset Performance Sensor Data CONOPs & Asset Performance Asset Performance Acquisition Schedule with Upgrades Personnel Flux based on Acquisition Air & Surface Asset Performance with C4ISR and Logistics Specifications CAAT (C4ISR System- Level Performance Metrics and System Trades) QuikIntel (compute Intel timeline and performance)


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