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Introduction to System of Systems

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1 Introduction to System of Systems
Dr. Michael S. McCoy Boeing Technical Fellow 17 September, 2007

2 What is A System? A System is a collection of entities, elements, or components, e.g., people or machines, that act and interact together toward the accomplishment of some logical end. A system performs one or more functions. A system is composed of interacting components. A system performs functions not performable by its components. A system has a boundary, separating it from everything else. -- These are systems -- This chart describes the essential characteristics of a system. You can declare virtually anything a system and sometimes it’s useful to do so. If it performs a function, it’s a system. Even a paperweight, whose function is to hold down a stack of paper, has components at the molecular level. Small-scale Hardware Large-scale Hardware People & Organizations

3 What is A System of Systems?
A System of Systems (SoS) is a “super-system” made up of elements – each of which is itself a complex, independent system -- that interact to achieve a common goal. SoS elements (i.e., the systems) can and do operate independently. An SoS evolves – functions are added/removed/changed with experience. An SoS exhibits emergent behavior not attributable to any element (system). An SoS is geographically distributed – elements exchange information only. -- Are These SoS? -- YES YES Systems-of-systems should be distinguished from large but monolithic systems by the independence of their components, their evolutionary nature, emergent behaviors, and a geographic extent that limits the interaction of their components to information exchange . ... ... Five principal characteristics are useful in distinguishing very large and complex but monolithic systems from true systems-of-systems. Operational Independence of the Elements: If the system-of-systems is disassembled into its component systems the component systems must be able to usefully operate independently. The system-of-systems is composed of systems which are independent and useful in their own right. Managerial Independence of the Elements: The component systems not only can operate independently, they do operate independently. The component systems are separately acquired and integrated but maintain a continuing operational existence independent of the system-of-systems. Evolutionary Development: The system-of-systems does not appear fully formed. Its development and existence is evolutionary with functions and purposes added, removed, and modified with experience. Emergent Behavior: The system performs functions and carries out purposes that do not reside in any component system. These behaviors are emergent properties of the entire system-of-systems and cannot be localized to any component system. The principal purposes of the systems-of-systems are fulfilled by these behaviors. Geographic Distribution: The geographic extent of the component systems is large. Large is a nebulous and relative concept as communication capabilities increase, but at a minimum it means that the components can readily exchange only information and not substantial quantities of mass or energy. Mark W. Maier, Architecting Principles for Systems-of-Systems, UA Huntsville, NO Major League Baseball Hardware Oughta Be International Air Travel Joint Theater Ops

4 System of System Design Example Objective
Describe an analytical process used to optimize assets, performance, cost and planned expenditures to integrate, revitalize and modernize a System of System Force Structure.

5 Areas of Application Integrated Deepwater System – Optimize and rejuvenate the force structure of the U. S. Coast Guard Future Combat Systems – Define an optimal Brigade Force structure P8A – Integrating a new aircraft into the fleet SBINet- Determine optimal coverage and coordination between sensor, communications, C2. General Navy Applications – formation of a carrier task force Air Force Applications – formation of an air wing

6 Analysis Approach Spiral Development
Develop Capability Needs Threat Definition C4ISR Information Flow Asset Roles Scenario Definition CONOPS Development Requirements Generation & Mission Analysis Decision Aiding Algorithms Command & Control Architectures Communication Links and Protocols Logistics Infrastructure Common SW Architecture/Modules Requirement Generation. Mission Identification/analysis Mission Scenarios Definitions Rules of Engagement Target Analysis Asset Analysis Info Requirements/Sources Threat Assessment C4ISR Information Flow Analysis of Alternatives, Technology Insertion, & Collaborative Innovation Plan System of Systems Analysis, Plan Synthesis, & Risk Analysis Spiral Development Risk Assessment Acquisition Cost O&S Cost Logistics & Training Cost Total Ownership Cost Technology & Acquisition Planning Test & Evaluation Network Centric Operations Enable Systems of Systems

7 Typical Force Structure
Replacing 44 cutters 49 patrol boats 46 patrol aircraft 112 helicopters 70 shore Command and Control stations Upgrading Communications Logistics Infrastructure Objective is to replace all assets and schedule the implementation.

8 U S Coast Guard Primary Missions
Living Marine Resources Enforcement Alien Migrant Interdiction Operations General Defense General Law Search and Rescue Drug Interdiction General Law Enforcement General Defense Operations Search and Rescue Living Marine Resources Enforcement Maritime Intercept Operations Detailed Mission Area Alien Migrant Interdiction Operations Drug Interdiction Maritime Pollution Environmental Operations The Coast Guard has many missions to be performed. The Integrated Deepwater System is designed to define and acquire the appropriate future force structure to allow the Coast Guard to perform all of these missions in the most cost effective manner. This study plan details the method used to accomplish this task. International Ice Patrol Foreign Vessel Inspection Lightering Zone Enforcement Deployed Port Operations

9 Mission Decomposition Example

10 Mission Flow Analysis

11 Mission Analysis Example

12 Analytical Approach A study plan has been developed and implemented which uses operations research techniques to integrate existing (legacy) assets with new assets to determine the optimal force structure. This study plan starts with analysis of requirements and cost/affordability constraints and then passes these requirements to the Integrated Product Teams (IPTs). These IPTs determine the recommended surface and air assets along with shore based upgrades and C4ISR upgrades to all systems. Given these recommendations, a non-linear programming technique with linear cost and performance constraints is employed to determine the optimal combination of surface and air assets to be deployed in order to maximize performance and minimize cost. Once the future force structure has been defined, an implementation plan must be developed which plans the legacy system upgrades, new system acquisition and legacy system retirement. Because of the limited funding profile, the funding must be considered a constraint on a year by year basis. Therefore, the implementation planning procedure used is a dynamic programming technique which optimizes the number of assets available subject to the funding constraints. Sensitivity analysis has been performed and will continue to be exercised to explore alternative funding profiles. The final product of this step of the process is a schedule for implementing the acquisition of the new assets and facility upgrades.

13 Asset Characteristics Trade Studies
CONOPS CONLOG, Trade Studies Support Air Studies Surface Studies C4ISR Studies Sensors Comm Logistics Concept of Operations Affordability Output Asset Performance estimates Mission Performance contributions Marginal improvement to missions given new or upgraded assets & C4ISR Mission Analysis In order for our surface, air, logistics and C4ISR IPTs to determine candidate upgrades and new assets, tools were developed to support trade studies to gain insight into the relative advantages and disadvantages of different assets. These trade studies helped define the asset candidates to be included in the roll-up optimization model. This effort continues throughout the life of the project to help refine design of new surface assets and evaluate new Concepts of Operations for deployment of the System-of-Systems.

14 Area Of Responsibility
Other Data Evaluated IDS LCC # Prosecutions R o l - u p 1 2 3 4 Cost metrics Performance metrics Regional operating cost # Prosecutions per region Programmed Flight & Cutter Hours Area Of Responsibility operating cost # Prosecutions per Area of Responsibility Avg. Mission execution cost # Prosecutions by mission type Asset Cost & Performance Technical Reliability Market Availability Probability of success – Search and detect – Process – Intercept – Prosecute Average Mission Cost= $/FH or Programmed $ for Ships- Using this type of data along with the number of sorties or missions we can determine the Total system cost; Why isn’t the International Regions considered in this roll up- We decided to focus on the mission mix that represented 95% of the Coast Guard missions for determining how we m Driving system cost Driver metrics Cost estimating Relationship estimates Use Data To Determine Best Value Solution PRELIMINARY

15 DoD Application “DoD” Force Structure Problem
Force Derivation Define “Optimal Force Mix” to Integrate Assets Inputs Asset Performance Capabilities Asset AC&I and O&M Cost parameters Mission Performance Requirements Acquisition Budget over 20 years O&M Budget for each year. Outputs Asset Mix by AOR by Quarter Asset Deployment Requirements Asset Performance Expected Mission Performance by AOR “DoD” Force Structure Problem Network Connected Environment Coordinated Command and Control Intelligence sharing Optimal allocation of resources to max. effectiveness System of Systems Analysis and Synthesis Process Adapted to FCS, P-8A, and Other Programs

16 Affordability and Implementation Planning
Number of assets 300 250 200 150 100 50 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 CRW-UAV MS-UAV SH-2G CN-235 NSC GBC APB C-130 HH-65 HH-60 HU-25 378 270 210 110 Implementation Plan Affordability Analysis Once an optimal force structure (target force structure) has been defined for the future end state, and implementation plan had to be developed which plans the retirement of legacy assets, acquisition of new assets and any upgrades to legacy assets needed to bridge the gap between retirement and replacement. In order to perform this task, the Contractor Strategy tool was developed to schedule asset acquisition, legacy asset enhancements and retirements based on the budget allocation for each year of the implementation period. This tool is rule based and designed to provide rapid response to changes in budget strategy, production strategy and priority of acquisition. This allows all of the IPTs to realize the interaction between decisions to allocate budgets to different priorities and budget strategies. Asset Acquisition Scheduling

17 Effectiveness Evaluation
Performance Assessment Determine performance by year Emulate Customer Model Inputs Number of Assets Available Asset Basing and Schedule Asset Capability C4ISR Architecture Logistics (Availability) Output Expected number of Missions Performed Utilization Rate of Assets MOEs defined in Customer Expected relative performance to baseline Force Presence Model QuikPerformance 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 Time Relative Performance Optimal CAP Adverse P-RAAT V3.0 Asset Object Model Player Mission Asset Examples: SAR DRUG AMIO LMR GLE Sensor w/ Tracklist MEC MS UAV Global Surface, Air and Space-based assets are individually modeled with their own sensors, and systems communicate through the “Global Tracklist” ) Process Simulation of Coast Guard Missions Process Simulation of Missions

18 Sample Scenario: SE Region (Notional)
Area of Responsibilities (AOR)

19 Sample Scenario: Modules (Notional)
Command and Control Communication Network Miami Assets Cuba Targets Surveillance Satellite

20 SampleSimulation Output: Percent Prosecuted and Detected (Notional)
AORs

21 Sample simulation assesses force structure performance
Simulation Summary Sample simulation assesses force structure performance Capture multiple Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) Traceable data available to support conclusions Animation facilitates Validation and Verification Able to Simulate the complex architecture Player Dynamics Communication Network Centric Operations Geographic limitations Logistics

22 Project Summary We developed a Systems of Systems Analysis and Synthesis approach We demonstrated this approach on several programs We derived one metric for synthesis We showed that one models does not fit all We are generalizing this process into a standard practice

23 Back-Up Slides

24 Analysis Components CONOPs, CONLOG, Force & C4ISR Structure Mission
Implementation Plan Force Structure Effectiveness Evaluation CONOPs, CONLOG, & C4ISR Mission Analysis Force Structure Optimization Affordability Number of assets 300 250 200 150 100 50 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 CRW-UAV MS-UAV SH-2G CN-235 NSC GBC APB C-130 HH-65 HH-60 HU-25 378 270 210 110 AOR Size ( L x W ) Target Speed= 5 kts Length (nm) = Width (nm) = AOR (sq nm)= 60000 OTU Composition Asset No. Name Class Qty Avail Duty Cycle (hrs/ day) Ant Ht (ft) Speed (knots) 1 National Security Cutter (NSC) Surf 98% 24 28 2 WHEC-378' 95% 80 22 3 WMEC-270' 90% 60 20 4 WMEC-210' 100% 18 Patrol Boat -110' 40 25 6 Patrol Boat Concept#1 7 HH-65 Delphine Air 80% 500 125 8 Alt. Helo Concept 9 Shipboard UAV (LAE) 10 Long Endurance UAV (HAE) 50000 350 11 Total OTU Elements= 12 XL(300 sqm) L(80 sqm) ML(40 sqm) M(8 sqm) MS(2 sqm) S(0.25 sqm) PIW(0.01 sqm) 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Target Duration in AOR (hrs) Probability of Target Contact 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2000 2005 2015 2025 Cap Years Another way of looking at the study plan is to consider it as a continuous cycle of analysis and design in which a force structure is defined, trade studies are performed for each component of the system in recommending the assets to be considered. Several models are employed to help define the optimal combination of assets to be acquired during the life of the system integration process. Once the assets are defined for the end-state force structure, the contracting strategy tool is used to first plan the implementation of the integration to achieve the end-state within budget, and then to perform sensitivity to the implementation plan constituting the affordability analysis. Once the implementation plan has been completed, an effectiveness analysis must be performed to ensure that the goal effectiveness criteria have been met. In order to do this, first a basing and schedule of deployment must be defined for each year to be analyzed. This includes determining the deployment schedule, maintenance schedule and adhering to the limiting performance capabilities of all assets, both legacy and new. Once the deployment schedule is defined, then the Rapid Architecture Assessment Tool is used to simulate a full years worth of performance. The measures of merit are the successful completion of missions. These measures of merit are compared to the system specifications and, when necessary, fed back to the design team for analysis and refinement. 1 2 1 1 2

25 Deepwater Iterative Modeling Toolkit
QuikNet (Evaluate Comm networks Performance) Comm Net Performance QuikIntel (compute Intel timeline and performance) QuikPersonnel (Define Personnel Transition) Quik_AC_LOG (compute Aircraft Availability) Comm Delay & Probability Connectivity Acquisition Schedule with Upgrades Personnel Flux based on Acquisition MTTF MTBF MTTR QuikPerformance (Estimate Implementation Performance) Asset Performance QuikBasing (Define Air Station Basing) QuikForce Structure (Define Optimal Force Mix) Contracting Strategy Tool (Define Retirement and Acquisition Strategy Air & Surface Asset Performance Optimal Asset Mix Estimated Performance over entire period of performance Acquisition Schedule with Upgrades Sensor Data Quik_PD(Compute Prob of Detection) Scenario Editor (Visualize Scheduled Deployment) QuikScheduler (Define Optimal Force Deployment) CONOPs & Asset Performance C4ISim(Visualize initial CONOPs) CAAT (C4ISR System-Level Performance Metrics and System Trades) Detailed Deployment Schedule per year QuikSAR (AIR IPT support to evaluate Air Asset Trade Studies) Asset Performance USCG MAROPSSIM (Evaluate Force Mix Performance) Python RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance) SLAMEM (Mission Model) Under Development Quik Presence(Define estimated presence in AORs) Air & Surface Asset Performance with C4ISR and Logistics Specifications IPT Support Tools Arena Rapid Architecture Assessment Tool RAAT (Evaluate Force Mix Performance) Force Optimization Tool Implementation Tool Asset Scheduling Tools Performance Assessment Tools High Fidelity System Performance by year


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