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Moores Law Dynamics of a Technological Revolution Thomas J. Misa Charles Babbage Institute www.cbi.umn.edu.

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Presentation on theme: "Moores Law Dynamics of a Technological Revolution Thomas J. Misa Charles Babbage Institute www.cbi.umn.edu."— Presentation transcript:

1 Moores Law Dynamics of a Technological Revolution Thomas J. Misa Charles Babbage Institute

2 Plan for today Views of Moores Law (1965--) What sort of law? Turning points Making a Law Nothing about the future CBIwhat are we, who supports, what do we do?

3 Views of Moores Law (1)

4 Views of Moores Law (2) Electronics 19 April 1965

5 Views of Moores Law (3) The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue…. Over the longer term … there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. Gordon Moore Electronics (19 April 1965)

6 Views of Moores Law (4) Gordon Moore Electronics 19 April 1965

7 Views of Moores Law (5) TI integrated circuit (early 1960s) Pentium-4 300mm wafer (2000)

8 What kind of law? Gordon Moore (1965) Carver Mead (c.1970) Regis McKenna (?) The press called this Moores Law and the name has stuck. GM

9 What kind of law? Gordon Moore (1975): Larger die-size ~ 1/3 contribution Die-size x smaller dimensions ~1/3 Device and circuit cleverness ~1/3

10 What kind of law? Bipolar to MOS (except ) XCCD memories DRAM (early) Microprocessors (later)... hard drives (Kryders law)... software (Wirths law)

11 1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 Insight Investments Expectations Public policy Popular understanding

12 1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 G. Moore Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics Technical Digest IEEE Intl Electron Devices (1975) R.Noyce Large Scale Integration: What is Yet to Come? Science (1977) R.Noyce Microelectronics Scientific American (1977) Carver Meads evangelism (Moores data)

13 1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 DSB Task Force on Semiconductor Dependency (1986) SEMATECH f (14 firms + $100M DoD) Coop R&D across industry IBM leads roadmapping inside SEMATECH

14 1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 SIA starts National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (NTRS) NTRS as most detailed reincarnation [of] Moores Law (W.Maly CMU)

15 1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 NTRS -> ITRS (SIAs of US, Japan, Europe, S.Korea; later Taiwan) Moores Law as self-fulfilling prediction that drives industry-wide planning (NSF 2000) 1980s nationalism -> globalism

16 insight | invest | expect | public | popular Insight Role of science (GM, CM as PhDs) Knowledge of technical field (success after the fact)

17 insight | invest | expect | public | popular Investments (1) Sequoia Capitals Don Valentine: I just follow Moores Law and make a few guesses about its consequences. (2005)

18 insight | invest | expect | public | popular Investments (2) Intels Craig Barrett (2002): we dont adhere to Moores Law for the hell of it. Its a fundamental expectation that everybody at Intel buys into. We dangle Moores Law in front of the new young minds … and say, Hey, your predecessors were smart enough to figure this out for the past 20 or 30 yearswhy the hell arent you?

19 insight | invest | expect | public | popular Expectations If we can stay on the SIA Roadmap, we can essentially stay on the [Moores Law] curve. It really becomes a question of putting the track ahead of the train to stay on plan. (G.Moore 1997)

20 insight | invest | expect | public | popular Public policy U.S. trade policy SEMATECH R&D consortium Collective action (SIA ---> ITRS)

21 insight | invest | expect | public | popular Popular understanding (feedback)

22 What is CBI?

23 Worlds leading research collection on history of computing 200 archival collections 400 oral histories 150,000 photos 1 mile of paper records 5 staff + students Charles Babbage ( )

24 Who supports us? University Library IT Dean History of Science, Technology & Medicine (Ph.D. program) ERA endowment CBI Friends (annual)

25 What do we do? Research Archiving Publication Infrastructure

26 Archiving = boxes in attic to research tool Records from companies, individuals, professional organizations, government Rare publications Photos, films, videotapes Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure

27 DARPA history ( ) Software History (NSF ) Documenting Internet2 (NA ) IBM Rochester study (2005-6) Computer services industry E-government (NSFs FastLane) Moores Law Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure

28

29 Social Infrastructure –20+ CBI-Tomash fellows –Local/inter/national networks… –Researchers, practitioners, financial supporters Physical infrastructure Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure

30 Blasting for caverns July 1997 Tunnel entrance December 1997

31 Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure Underground caverns Andersen Library June 1999

32 Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure Andersen Library Grand Opening April 2000

33 The End


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