Presentation on theme: "The Wicked Future of Systems Engineering"— Presentation transcript:
1The Wicked Future of Systems Engineering December 6, 2006Curtis Johnson, Advanced Concepts Group andDr. Gerold Yonas, PhDVice President and Principal ScientistSandia National LaboratoriesSAND Number: PSandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
2Important Future Problems Are Wicked (i.e., Inherently Sociotechnical) Homeland SecurityInfrastructures ResilienceClimate Change“Peaking” OilThe “Long War”Sustainable CitiesAccelerated and Enhanced EducationDevelopment in the Third WorldAffordable Health Maintenance of an Aging SocietyTransitioning to Democracy and BeyondBiological and Genetic Threats and Opportunities
3Wicked Problem Characteristics Causes and Effects are ElusiveNon-LinearMany interdependent variables (feedback loops)Delays and DistancesNo Definitive Description or Optimal StateMulti-MindedSystems AdaptIndividuals Optimize LocallySensitive to Initial Conditions (History)Let’s explore these four characteristics of complex systems in more depth. We’ll use traffic in a city as an example of a complex system.
4Causes and Effects are Elusive It’s not just cars that cause trafficLocations of homes, workplaces, stores and attractionsCost of travelHours and times of workWeather, car accidents and constructionNew roads cause growth, which causes trafficAlleviation of traffic shortens the time required for trips, which leads people to take more trips and causes traffic.In complex systems, you might THINK you know the causes and effects. We usually think we do, at least at first. Traffic is caused by the number of cars on the road. Traffic is alleviated by getting cars off the road or adding capacity to the roads. A single cause having a single, immediate, direct effect is the easiest to see, such as a hammer hitting a nail. When there are multiple causes, when causes affect each other, when effects are delayed or disproportional, we often make mistakes in assigning causes. It took a long time to discover that mosquitoes and calm pools of water are leading causes of malaria and yellow fever, because the causal chain is not direct, immediate, and proportionateFirst, causes and effects are often not proportional in complex systems. This is all we mean by “non-linear.” Adding one lane to a three lane road does not necessarily increase capacity by 1/3. Sometimes adding lanes to a highway causes more lane-switching and actually slows traffic. Raising the speed limit might speed up traffic, or it might slow it down with accidents. Small causes can have big effects, for example a police car stopping people for speeding, a single accident, or one new employer in the region.Second, variables are interdependent. For instance new roads often stimulate growth, creating more traffic. Reducing traffic attracts even more people to the region and makes it convenient to live further from the city center, creating more traffic.Third, causes can have delayed or distant effects, making it hard to make the connection. It takes awhile for a new road to create growth. It takes a very long time for internet connectivity to reduce traffic by encouraging telecommuting.
5Wicked Problems Have No Definitive Description or Optimal State Traffic is:A quality-of-life problemAn environmental problemA safety problemA transportation problemA symptom of urbanizationA productivity (economic) problemA symptom of poor mass transit systemsA symptom of poor acceptance and implementation of telecommutingEach of these is a different way to frame the problem of traffic. None of these frames can be proven to be more right or wrong than the others.And each frame would define the elements of the system differently. If we approach the problem as a transportation problem, we would look for the fastest and most efficient way to move people and goods from where they are to where they need to be. We would probably accept the locations of houses and factories and workplaces as fixed. In an environmental frame, we would model pollution. In a productivity model, we would be concerned with time lost from work. If we thought of traffic as a symptom that telecommuting isn’t being adopted, we wouldn’t try to fix traffic at all; we’d go to work on telecommuting and think of traffic as an outcome.These different frames are in tension or competition. If we “solve” for one of these frames, we will create new problems. For instance telecommuting could damage the social fiber of our city and would hurt the restaurants and clothing retailers in the city. It could also create traffic jams on the internet. We could solve traffic as an environmental problem and damage productivity and the quality of life.
6Wicked Problems Involve Multi-Minded Systems Each person and each driver will adapt to changes and optimize locally, changing:RoutesJobsHomesTransportation modesHabitsAND PERCEPTIONS AND VALUESIf you think of traffic as a problem of cars and roads and needs to get people and things from here to there, you will miss one of the most important aspects of the system—it is multi-minded. No one in the system is trying to make the whole system good. Each person in the system is optimizing for themselves or maybe for themselves and their immediate neighbors.People are always trying to beat the system. And there are more of them thinking of ways around the system than there are people trying to maintain and control the system.And worse, people adapt and change. People in Los Angeles think that a one-hour commute is short. People in smaller towns think it is endless. When houses get cheaper further away, the commute doesn’t look so bad. When iPods and XM radio and cell phones make the commute more pleasant or productive, they are willing to drive even further.In the US, cars have a lot to do with personal images and people love the freedom to go where they want when they want with whom they want. In other places people may just want cheap transportation (and cell phones might have everything to do with image).If you are trying to control a system, multimindedness creates huge problems. On the other hand, multimindedness is also a very good thing. We don’t yet have computer systems that could run the traffic of a city nearly as well as all of the brains in the cars do today. One should try to influence multimindedness and leverage their brains, adaptability and self-interest. A bureaucratic hierarchy tries to be singleminded, while other forms of management and leadership try to leverage multimindedness.
7Wicked Problems Are Sensitive to Initial Conditions Values about transportation and carsHabitual routesCommon speeds and rules of the roadWhere the houses and factories are nowWhere a single stalled vehicle isEtc.Complex systems are never the same twice. An intervention might improve conditions today and the same intervention might make things worse tomorrow. A successful outcome doesn’t necessarily mean that you understand the system or that you will be successful with the same strategy the next time. Some initial conditions can be known and defined and others are elusive. This makes rigorous scientific experimentation on complex systems pretty much impossible.
8Tame problems have similar characteristics Well-defined problem statementDefinite stopping pointRight or wrong solutionSimilar to others of same classSolutions easily tried and droppedFew alternate solutionsTraditional wisdom for solving complexproblems: the “waterfall”Jeff Conklin, Wicked Problems andSocial Complexity
9Linear solution approach to tame problems Collect relevant informationAnalyzeFormulate solutionDecide to implement solutionImplement solutionData/Info Collection Analysis Decision
10Trying to tame a wicked problem can lead to: Defining the problem very narrowly and only from a technical perspectiveUnconsciously eliminating many possible solutionsAssuming people are all the same and are the same even under different conditionsFailure to anticipate consequencesIgnoring the changing nature of the problem, our part in the problem, and the others trying to solve the problem from their own frame.People taming wicked problems with different perspectives, backgrounds, organizations, and goals leads to escalating confusion, conflicts, and paralysisPattern of cognitive activity of onewicked engineer: the “jagged” lineJeff Conklin, Wicked Problems andSocial Complexity
12Step Two: Accept Wickedness Each problem at each moment is uniqueEvery problem definition eliminates other valid definitions and limits the solution spaceYou will never understand the whole systemStudying and experimenting with the problem changes the problemSuccess changes the game (what works today will often not work tomorrow)You cannot control or stabilize the systemYou can anticipate outcomes but not predict them definitively
13Step Three: Organize for Success Create a diverse team, including different:Perspectives on the system and from within the systemProfessions, academic backgrounds, genders, races, ages, religions, thinking styles, etc.Create an environment where those many voices are welcomeIdentify several different formulations of the problemDeliberately put yourselves in “different shoes”Plan for continuous data collection, analysis, decision-making, and action. Organize to make rapid decisions, even with limited data, and to adapt to changes quickly
14Step Four: Use a Rational Approach Based on the Scientific Method Observe, gather data, and describe the problemFormulate an hypothesisMake a prediction (If Then . . .)Test the hypothesisUpdate description and hypothesisA scientific approach can’t take out the complexity. It can ensure that the actions you take are rational given your assumptions and knowledge. More importantly, it can ensure that you know what you don’t know, change your assumptions and problem definition when these are disproved, and that you learn as you go.
15Step Five: Use Appropriate Tools Red TeamsGamingModeling and SimulationAgent-Based Models (simulates multi-mindedness)Systems Dynamics ModelsDialogue MappingSocial Network AnalysisInformatics and Correlation Analysis“Pinging” and Experiments
16General Principles for Working Complex Problems Continually gather information, revalidate assumptions, and consider alternate hypothesesFind ways to collect artificial or low-cost experience and test hypothesesLook for underlying structures, causes and motivations (an art, not a science)Always look at a problem from multiple framesLeverage the energy in the system; don’t oppose itBe ready to adapt even when you are successfulDynamic stability is more robust than controlled, or static, stability—a little chaos is good!Focus on the people more than the technology, the facts, or the stuffI will later describe assessing a complex contingency like waves – assess, decide, act, asses, decide act – the OODA loop made more translatable. . . This is a great foundation! Charlie
17Implications for Engineering Engineers can no longer ask for clear technical requirements and then “retreat” to their comfort zone. Engineers must be able to participate effectively in formulating the whole sociotechnical mess.A technical person should understand the whole problem and how much leverage is in technical means before suggesting more research or asking for a lot of money to create a technical fix.We must learn to engineer systems that are only triggers for social change and tools that are designed to evolve with use in unpredictable ways.
18Benefits to Engineering of Going Wicked Engineers will better understand their customers, communicate better with their customers, be more valued by their customers, and better see the big picture they are working onEngineering will appeal to a much more diverse set of people, including more entrepreneurial people, more socially oriented people, and likely more women.Engineering will be more valued by societyEngineers will be more attractive to the opposite sex (just kidding)