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Fig. 1-1 ©2008 CSM Making Project Decisions The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding Leonardo De Vinci Lifes.

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Presentation on theme: "Fig. 1-1 ©2008 CSM Making Project Decisions The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding Leonardo De Vinci Lifes."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fig. 1-1 ©2008 CSM Making Project Decisions The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding Leonardo De Vinci Lifes

2 Fig. 1-2 ©2008 CSM Two skills critical to the quality of life are: Parenting Decision Making Two skills critical to the quality of life are: Parenting Decision Making Decision Issues - 1 Formal training in either is rare

3 Fig. 1-3 ©2008 CSM A Fit Decision Maker Understands the decision significance Has the right decision statement Knows the proper frame and the associated selection criteria Knows the amount of uncertainty Knows the information required and how to get it Is skilled in the right decision process Is able to manage peer group biases Is emotionally centered and fit to make the decision Understands the decision significance Has the right decision statement Knows the proper frame and the associated selection criteria Knows the amount of uncertainty Knows the information required and how to get it Is skilled in the right decision process Is able to manage peer group biases Is emotionally centered and fit to make the decision Fit Decision Maker

4 Fig. 1-4 ©2008 CSM Systems Engineering Decisions Requirements Determination Concept Selection Architecture Selection Interface Definition Specification Quantification Requirements Flowdown Lower Level Concepts and Architectures Verification Plans Validation Plans Anomaly Resolution Etc. Requirements Determination Concept Selection Architecture Selection Interface Definition Specification Quantification Requirements Flowdown Lower Level Concepts and Architectures Verification Plans Validation Plans Anomaly Resolution Etc.

5 Fig. 1-5 ©2008 CSM Decision Significance and Uncertainty Significance of Decision Consequence Uncertainty Selecting A New Restaurant Selecting A Beverage To Drink Open Heart Surgery By Worlds Best Surgeon Critical Decision Zones First Customer for Bungee Jumping With New Company

6 Fig. 1-6 ©2008 CSM High Uncertainty and High Consequence Example Accident ruling over bungee jump death Feb Evidence from an inquest into the horrific death of a 22-year-old Welsh student at a charity jump raises safety concerns for jumpers across the UK. Chris Thomas plunged to his death after leaping from a 180ft crane in the car park of a pub in Swansea. An inquest heard yesterday that Chris weighed 132kg. But an expert investigation discovered that the rope holding him had a maximum load weight of just 90kg, and should not have safely held more than 70kg.

7 Fig. 1-7 ©2008 CSM Two Relevant Questions We want to make good decisions, so what is a good decision? We want to make good decisions, so what is a good decision? How are decisions and consequences related? How are decisions and consequences related?

8 Fig. 1-8 ©2008 CSM A Good Decision A good decision is an alternative selection based on sound logic and relevant information (the head factor) and the selection is consistent with ethics based instincts (the heart factor) A good decision selects the alternative with the best chance of achieving the opportunity (outcome) given the information available at the time Decision processes provide guidance to achieving a logical selection A good decision is an alternative selection based on sound logic and relevant information (the head factor) and the selection is consistent with ethics based instincts (the heart factor) A good decision selects the alternative with the best chance of achieving the opportunity (outcome) given the information available at the time Decision processes provide guidance to achieving a logical selection

9 Fig. 1-9 ©2008 CSM Outcomes (Consequences) A good decision can result in a good or bad outcome A bad decision can result in a good or bad outcome Criticism of a good decision that resulted in bad outcome is unjustified, but it is common, especially by sports commentators A good decision can result in a good or bad outcome A bad decision can result in a good or bad outcome Criticism of a good decision that resulted in bad outcome is unjustified, but it is common, especially by sports commentators

10 Fig ©2008 CSM What is a Decision? Application of opportunity-seeking judgment resulting in action –Decisions may or may not be binding –Consequences may or may not be permanent –Actions may include unmanageable risk Application of opportunity-seeking judgment resulting in action –Decisions may or may not be binding –Consequences may or may not be permanent –Actions may include unmanageable risk People judge themselves by their best intentions Others judge people by their worst action People judge themselves by their best intentions Others judge people by their worst action. F

11 Fig ©2008 CSM There Are A Variety Of Alternative Judgment Methods 8. Probability Based 7. Fact Based 6. Expert Based 1. Indifference Based 5. Intuition Based 4. Emotion Based 3. Addiction Based 2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based

12 Fig ©2008 CSM Judgment Process Suitability Defensible for business decisions Not suitable for business decisions 4 and 5 may influence the final selection 8. Probability Based 7. Fact Based 6. Expert Based 1. Indifference Based 5. Intuition Based 4. Emotion Based 3. Addiction Based 2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based

13 Fig ©2008 CSM My Younger Brother Takes on Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger! Stockton Record Front page, 22 September 2006 Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lodi Resident Byng Forsberg The point is… Whats hard about decisions? Communication and language. My younger brother is older than I am.

14 Fig ©2008 CSM Defensible Decision Processes Increasing Uncertainty Of Relevant Decision Information Requires uncertainty and value attitude knowledge Decision Tree Analysis 8 High Uncertainty Probability Based Bayesian Team Support Requires beliefs, alternatives, preferences Expert Decides 6 Expert Based Instant decision Informed Judgment Kepner Tregoe (KTA) Analysis Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) aka Pairwise Comparison Analysis 7 Low Uncertainty Fact Based Pughs Method Prioritize, Weighted Scores & Other Factors Prioritize, Weight, and Rate +, 0, - Dominance Analysis Consequence Table and Even Swaps Prioritize, Weighted Scores & Other Factors Rank Summing Sums relative criteria rankings

15 Fig ©2008 CSM Kepner Tregoe Form - Example Decision Statement: Evaluation Criteria: Musts (Go/No-Go): Wants: Max Score (10xW): Total Score: Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3Alternative 4 Score Weight Comments Raw ( R ) R*W Car I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving this goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth President John F Kennedy, May 25, 1961 I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving this goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth President John F Kennedy, May 25, 1961

16 Fig ©2008 CSM Kepner Tregoe Form - Example Decision Statement: Evaluation Criteria: Musts (Go/No-Go): Wants: Max Score (10xW): Total Score: Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3Alternative 4 Score Weight Comments Raw ( R ) R*W

17 Fig ©2008 CSM Kepner Tregoe - Example Decision Statement: Evaluation Criteria: Musts (Go/No-Go): Wants: Max Score (10xW): Total Score: Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3Alternative 4 Score Weight Comments Raw ( R ) R*W Domestic CarJapanese Sports CarDomestic MinivanItalian Sports Car Under $25,000 Transport 5 People Fuel economy Good acceleration Crash Safety Carry Garden Supplies 26.2 MPG 10.5 sec High Ratings Small capacity 20.0 MPG 7.0 sec Avg. Ratings Large Capacity Good for dates (16 yo.)Cool image Conservative YYY N Y N Y N Select the best vehicle to meet the needs of the Patrick family. (Mom, dad, and three kids, ages 5 to 16) Max Score = Sum of Weights X 10 May wish to normalize so that max score is 100 or 1000

18 Fig ©2008 CSM Evaluate Other Factors That Can Influence The Selection For the highest scoring alternatives evaluate other factors – Factors not evaluated – New evidence – Emerging opportunities – Emerging risks Incorporate actions to enhance opportunities and mitigate risks Re-score candidates Make informed selection For the highest scoring alternatives evaluate other factors – Factors not evaluated – New evidence – Emerging opportunities – Emerging risks Incorporate actions to enhance opportunities and mitigate risks Re-score candidates Make informed selection TROUBLE! People in my path!

19 Fig ©2008 CSM Other Factors Evaluation – Kepner-Tregoe Example Decision Statement: Evaluation Criteria: Musts (Go/No-Go): Wants: Max Score (10xW): Alternative 1Alternative 2 Alternative 3Alternative 4 Score Weight Comments Domestic CarJapanese Sports Car Under $25, MPG avg. 10 Y Select the best vehicle to meet the needs of the Patrick family. (Mom, dad, and three kids, ages 5 to 16) Domestic MinivanItalian Sports Car Transport 5 people Y Y Y Y NN N Fuel Economy Good acceleration Carry garden supplies Crash safety Good for dates (16 yo) Raw (R) R*W sec Small capacity High ratings Cool image Score Comments 20.0 MPG avg Raw (R) R*W sec Large capacity Ave. Ratings Conservative Score Comments Raw (R) R*W Score Comments Raw (R) R*W Total Score: Issue P P SSResidual Risk P = Probability S = Seriousness H = High M = Medium L = Low 1.If reliability does not improve from last years model (as dealer promised), the car will require service more often 2.If family size is increased sedan will not be large enough 1.Recent crash tests reveal poor occupant protection and new owners reporting below advertised gas mileage HL LH HH Mid-Size DomesticDomestic Minivan Selected The decision process is not complete until other factors have been considered. The highest scoring candidate may not be the best choice. The decision process is not complete until other factors have been considered. The highest scoring candidate may not be the best choice.

20 Fig ©2008 CSM Success in Decision Making in Capability-Based Acquisition Concepts Customer involvement –Concurs in problem statement –Reviews and concurs with criteria and weights –Understands options (which include favored approach, if known) –Reviews final results before, not after, the presentation Your management support when needed Clear presentation of results –Use graphic display of numeric data whenever possible –Use KTA Matrix whenever possible –Use tabular display of numeric data as supporting info Customer involvement –Concurs in problem statement –Reviews and concurs with criteria and weights –Understands options (which include favored approach, if known) –Reviews final results before, not after, the presentation Your management support when needed Clear presentation of results –Use graphic display of numeric data whenever possible –Use KTA Matrix whenever possible –Use tabular display of numeric data as supporting info

21 Fig ©2008 CSM Questions? Comments? Discussion?


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