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– (314) 232-5042 On Chasing the Ether of Intelligent Systems Dr. James Guffey 25 Oct 2006 INCOSE Meeting – St. Louis MSG06-081332-001.ppt.

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Presentation on theme: "– (314) 232-5042 On Chasing the Ether of Intelligent Systems Dr. James Guffey 25 Oct 2006 INCOSE Meeting – St. Louis MSG06-081332-001.ppt."— Presentation transcript:

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2 james.a.guffey@boeing.com – (314) 232-5042 On Chasing the Ether of Intelligent Systems Dr. James Guffey 25 Oct 2006 INCOSE Meeting – St. Louis MSG06-081332-001.ppt

3 MSG06-081332-002.ppt Name: Dr. James A. Guffey Senior Principal Engineer Key Technical Field: Technology Integration; Autonomous Technologies Phone: (314) 232-5042 E-mail: james.a.guffeyt@boeing.com Dr. Guffey has been at Boeing/McDonnell Douglas for 2 dozen and 3 years and has been heavily involved in the definition, implementation and management of a large number of avionics research and development programs for the Army, Air Force, Navy and DARPA, covering a wide variety of technology areas. In the technology area of Autonomy and Intelligent Decision Aiding, Dr.Guffey initiated the first in-house investigations into the use and applicability of Artificial Intelligence Technology at then MCAIR in 1984 and lead the proposal team that won the DARPA Pilots Associate Program in the mid 80s. He was the Technical/Deputy Program Manager of the PA program, which built an AI-based system to assist a fighter pilot in performing future advanced combat missions. The software architecture for PA was the basis for the Rotor Craft Pilots Associate system, which in turn was the genus of the Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle and some elements of the Future Combat System program for unmanned vehicles. He was a member of the Integration team for the Unmanned Systems organization when it was formed in 2001 and responsible for the development of a definition of potential future markets that could capitalize on advanced automation and autonomous applications for platforms and systems. In 2004 Jim acted as the Boeing management/technical liaison to the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) RedTeam for the DARPA Grand Challenge autonomous vehicle race in the deserts of California and Nevada. Part of that role was to be the broker to reach back into Boeing for technical help requested by the onsite Boeing employees at CMU to make the vehicles successful.

4 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. Recent Introductions by a Colleague: Jims Been at This for Decades! MSG06-081332-004.ppt Ive Been at This a Long Time Autonomy Intelligence Common Sense Ether

5 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. And……, I Guess Its True! Circa 1985 Artificial Intelligence Absolutely Insane Acute Indigestion Abandoned Ideas Advanced Insanity Action Item Awe Inspiring Asinine Ideas Almost Incredible Animal Instincts Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-005.ppt

6 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-026.ppt A Few Definitions Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. The Ability to Comprehend; to Understand and Profit From Experience The Capacity to Acquire/Apply Knowledge, Especially Toward a Purposeful Goal The Faculty of Thought and Reason An Intelligent, Incorporeal Being, Especially an Angel Intelligence : Showing Mental Alertness and Calculation and Resourcefulness Of, Relating to, or Being a Highly Automated Device, Especially One That Imitates Human Intelligence; Does the Right Thing in a Wide Variety of Complicated Circumstances Smart: Not Controlled By Others or By Outside Forces; Independent Independent in Mind or Judgment; Self-Directed Autonomous: Without Volition or Conscious Control; Self-Regulating (i.e. Washing Machine) Automatic, as Opposed to Human, Operation or Control of a Process, Equipment or a System; or the Techniques and Equipment Used to Achieve This Automation:

7 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-006.ppt Definition of Ether Ether: An All-Pervading, Infinitely Elastic, Massless Medium Formerly Postulated as the Medium of Propagation of Electromagnetic Waves; But Subsequently Found to Be Nonexistent. Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.

8 MSG06-081332-027.ppt The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. Alan Turings Test; 1950 –What He Claimed Was That With Intelligence, Imitation Is as Good as the Real Thing The Quest for Artificial Intelligence Started in ~ 1955 Alan Turings Test; 1950 –What He Claimed Was That With Intelligence, Imitation Is as Good as the Real Thing The Quest for Artificial Intelligence Started in ~ 1955 I propose to consider the question, "Can Machines Think?" - Alan Mathison Turing (1950)

9 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. Johnny Five Sonny Hard Artificial Intelligence- The Holy Grail Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. HAL 9000 Robby the Robot Knight Rider (Kitt) Knight Rider (Kitt) R2D2 Iron Giant The Terminator MSG06-081332-010.ppt

10 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. The and of the Journey AI Expectations –Maybe Time for Another Up Swing? Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-009.ppt UpsDowns Over Ambitious Expectations Disillusion Icarus: The First AI Guy AI Winters in 70s and 90s

11 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. What We All Strive to Create Johnny Five From Short Circuit Cold Reality MSG06-081332-013.ppt Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.

12 MSG06-081332-011.ppt It Doesnt Help That the Definition Keeps Changing At Every Step of the Way, on the Quest for Hard AI Systems, Whatever We Make Work, We Immediately Declare That It Is Not Intelligent Increasing Capabilities NoIntelligent ?? System A System D System C System B NoIntelligent ?? NoIntelligent ?? NoIntelligent ?? Why? Because Once We See What We Did to Make It Work We Realize That It Is Only Doing What We Told It to Do! Why? Because Once We See What We Did to Make It Work We Realize That It Is Only Doing What We Told It to Do! The Creator Knows It Isnt Smart, Even If the Audience Thinks It Is! (So maybe We Should Get Rid of the Creators After They Create?)

13 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. Why Do Todays Systems Look Smarter? Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-012.ppt Its All About Contingencies! + Brute Force Approach With Elegance –Storage + Throughput These Allow Much More Complicated Algorithms to Be Imploded, But the Systems Arent Any Smarter in Human Perspective Than Before –We Ultimately Are Able to Significantly Expand the Number and Levels of Contingencies That We Can Ask a System to Address (e.g. Deep Blue Chess Champion 60,000,000,000 moves in 180 seconds)

14 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-014.ppt INCOSE Mandatory Equation E = mc 2 Ether = man chasing conundrums* *Conundrum: A paradoxical, insoluble, or difficult problem; a dilemma. Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.

15 MSG06-081332-015.ppt A Working Definition of an Intelligent System Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. Three Easy Steps 2. Locate a Time Machine 1. Take Any Smart System of Today 3. Go Back in Time and Ask the Locals if They Think It Is Intelligent? If They Say Yes; Its Because It Appears to Them to Be So Far Ahead of What They Could Do With the Systems of Their Day That it Must Be Intelligent If They Say Yes; Its Because It Appears to Them to Be So Far Ahead of What They Could Do With the Systems of Their Day That it Must Be Intelligent -barian

16 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-016.ppt Who Needs Intelligence Anyway ? Its All About Capabilities, Stupid! Its All About Capabilities, Stupid!

17 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-017.ppt Be Careful of What You Ask For ! If We Make a System that Thinks Like a Human and is Truly Artificially Intelligent……. Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. ….Then, Like Humans, it Could Also be Artificially Stupid ** ! Do We Really Want Them to Be Just Like Us ? Sonny HAL 9000 Whoops…, Sorry, Dave ! ** Compliments to Jeff Erickson

18 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. I dont need no stinking jack ! Why use Cleats when Ive got this cool bucket ? Hmmmm Aluminum, Electricity, and Bare Feet. Just Add Water ! Who says I cant reach this lightbulb? And the guy wondered Why he got Fired?? If one lift wont make it, Just use two ! If one lift wont make it, Just use two ! Well, Gee its only a small chlorine gas leak MSG06-081332-038.ppt Its Not Like We Always Make Good Decisions! Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. Well, Gee its only a small chlorine gas leak

19 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-017.ppt Focused on the Wrong Thing Debates About Intelligence Are Interesting But They Dont Get You Much We in an Engineering Company Look at It From the Practical Perspective See If We Can Make Some Money Out of It Along the Way! We Still Have to Stay in Business While We Are Figuring It Out Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. I Think. I Think I am. Therefore, I Am. I Think? Moody Blues

20 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-018.ppt What Our Customers Really Want is… The Endstate Capability to Handle More and More Complicated, Dynamic Situations for Their Product or Service That Provide a Safe and Acceptable, Real Time Solution With Minimal Human Involvement Whether You Call It Smart, Robust, Multiple Layers of Contingency Management or Whatever Doesnt Matter –Increasing Capability with Increasing Autonomy Is What Most Customers Ultimately Want DANTE II Personal Satellite Assistant Personal Satellite Assistant Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. The Line Between Automation, Autonomy, Smartness, and Intelligence Doesnt Really Matter! The Line Between Automation, Autonomy, Smartness, and Intelligence Doesnt Really Matter!

21 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-031.ppt Autonomous Control Level (ACL) Chart Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. EXAMPLE OF INCREASING CAPABILITIES Remotely Piloted Vehicles Group Accomplishment of Strategic goal with No Supervisory Assistance Observe Orient Decide Act 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

22 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-029.ppt Autonomy Allocation Problem Decomposition Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. 1. Complexity Defines the Total Problem Solving Requirements (TPSR) Mission Complexity (Y) Environment Complexity (X) Examples: Program (X,Y) U2 (10, 10) (GTAS) 100 B2 (20, 20) F22 (50, 50) UUV (10,10) UCAR (70, 70) Orbital Express (40, 40) PTS (10, 80) etc,.. The Combination of Mission and Environment Complexities Determine the Magnitude of the Total Problem Solving Requirements Problem Solving Requirements

23 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-030.ppt Autonomy Allocation Problem Decomposition Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. 2. Who Does What,…When? Total Problem Solving Requirement 100 Platform/System Network Human Level of Autonomy to Platform or System Is Both Driven and Constrained by Customer Requirements …and Bounded by Technology 100 Mission and environment complexities determine the total problem solving requirements The Smaller the Arrow the Higher the Chance of Automating the Solution and Increasing the Autonomy of the Platform/System eg. The Mars Rover Boys Spirit and Opportunity are highly Autonomous

24 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. But Who Cares?? We Can Still Make Them SMARTER ! So, Can We Ever Create a Hard Artificially Intelligent System? Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. If It Looks Like a Duck and Walks Like a …. Vaucansons Duck Its Still a Terrific Idea to Keep Striving for Real (?) Artificial Intelligence Answer: Alas,……No Make the World a Little Better Along the Way!! MSG06-081332-019.ppt

25 Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved. MSG06-081332-028.ppt My Niece, Lauren Says I Love INCOSE This Much !!! Copyright © 2005 Boeing. All rights reserved.

26 MSG06-081332-036.ppt THE COMPUTER IS CLAIMING ITS INTELLIGENCE IS REAL, AND OURS IS ARTIFICIAL I Think. I Think I am. Therefore, I Am. I Think? Moody Blues


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