Presentation on theme: "Complex Adaptive Systems"— Presentation transcript:
1 Complex Adaptive Systems 377 NOTES UMR3/27/2017Complex Adaptive SystemsWilliam W. SchoeningBoeing1
2 What Is a Complex Adaptive Systems? Collection of independent systemsDevelopers can make unilateral decisions about their own systemsEmergent behavior of the whole is the result of collaboration – explicit & implicitBehavior adapts to the evolving contextExamplesInternetHighway transportationAir transportationFCSBoeing
3 CAS Seldom Built From Scratch ExceptionsInternetFCSMore commonRoad and air transportationCompaniesGovernmentsExceptions evolve toward less central control over time
4 Business System Transformation Eastman Kodak Consumer Segment Picture Life Cycle for Traditional TechnologiesPicture Life Cycle for Digital/HybridComplex collaborative systems are the way of life in the commercial worldUse with the permission of and thanks to James C. Stoffel, Sr. VP Eastman Kodak
5 Why Are CASs of Interest? All of our systems reside in CASsCan ignore (at own risk) important features so long as pace of change is less than response timeNCO and need for more rapid response has made better understand of CASs essential for success
6 What Makes CASs Difficult? Lack of centralized authority over development and evolutionAmbiguous and ever changing objectivesContinuing adaptation to external worldFar more human involvement with potentially conflicting goalsSystems can be part of multiple CASsEven CASs developed under authority evolve in collaborations
7 Nontraditional Approaches Adaptation of concepts fromChaos theoryEcologyBiologySociologyPsychologyEconomicsBusinessPoliticsModifications to sacred cows of systems engineering
8 Chaos Theory Not about being chaotic Focus Suspect focus is misguided Nonlinear behaviorStarting conditionsSuspect focus is misguidedWell understood non-linear behavior is not a problemNonstandard (unexpected) behavior is a problem
9 More on Nontraditional Diversity in ecosystems can mitigate virusesHuman behavior is psychological and sociologicalDecisions by owners of component systems are often based on business decisionsCAS adaptations are often political
10 Challenging the Sacred Cows Boundaries are in constant flux around the CAS and within the CASTop-down is insufficientBottoms-up & middle-outVerification of CAS-level requirements of little valueWhat are requirements for an adaptive complex system?Can you pin down the CAS well enough to perform verification?Is validation replacing verification at the CAS level?Satisfying requirements ahead of schedule and below cost may not be enough for successCan contractors unilaterally implement features based on own understanding of the higher level CAS?
11 Some Major Questions What are the keystone systems and behaviors? Given new operating conditions, how might a CAS adapt?What kinds of behavior might we expect from component systems pushed into nonstandard behavior?How will a CAS adapt and behave in nonstandard operating conditions?How should we organize?Are our processes adequate?
12 Some ApproachesInstead for humans to pick up what machines cannot do, balance human and machine functionalityArchitect in adaptability, not just design marginExpend more effort to understand possible futures states for CASBetter simulations of CAS