1. Development of an Hourly- Updated NAM Forecast System: Current Efforts and Future Plans Jacob Carley ab, Eric Rogers b, Shun Liu ab, Xiaoyan Zhang bc, Brad Ferrier ab, Eric Aligo ab, Matthew Pyle b, and Geoff DiMego b a IMSG, b NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, c ESSIC jacob.carley@noaa.gov 1 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 1

2. Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System NAM – North American Mesoscale forecast system o Runs 4x daily at 00, 06, 12, 18Z o Short-range mesoscale NWP system for the U.S. which provides guidance to day 3.5 NAMRR: NAM Rapid Refresh o Hourly updates o Future North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble system (NARRE)  NAMRR + RAP/HRRR Foundation Development of hourly NAM cycling capabilities on NOAA R&D machine Zeus o Part of DOE-funded wind energy projects  WFIP/POWER o Cycling 12 km NAM and 4 (3) km CONUS nest o Hybrid ensemble-3DVar via Global Data Assimilaion System’s EnKF members o Cloud analysis and diabatic digital filter initialization with radar-derived temperature tendencies 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 2

3. NAMRR Overview Current, example, NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) configuration for a single, arbitrary cycle: Example NAMRR configuration for 12, hourly cycles: 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 3 Both systems assimilate a wide range of conventional (e.g. surface, profiler, mesonets, Doppler radar radial velocities, etc.) and satellite observations (e.g. radiances)

4. NAMRR: Configuration (still testing) ModelPoints (nx,ny,nz) dxDFI?dBZ Init.? Param. Conv? Micro- physics RadiationAnalysis/Up date frequency Forecasts per day (max length) Ops NAM 954x835x6012 kmNo BMJFerrierGFDL3 hourly (3DVar) 4 (84 hrs) Ops NAM CONUS nest 1371x 1100x60 4 kmNo BMJ ‘light’FerrierGFDLNone4 (60 hrs) NAMRR954x835x6012 kmYes BMJ (updated) Ferrier- Aligo RRTMGHourly (Hyb. Ens-3DVar)* 24 (84 hrs) NAMRR CONUS nest 1371x 1100x60 (1828x1466 x60) 4 km (3 km) Yes noneFerrier- Aligo RRTMGHourly (Hyb. Ens-3DVar)* 24 (60 hrs) 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 4 *Using 80 EnKF members from the Global DA Systems

5. June 29-30, 2012 Derecho - NAMRR Test Poor 4 hour forecast from Ops NAM 4 km CONUSnest Much improved 4 hour forecast from NAMRR 4 km CONUSnest Additional improvement with NAMRR 3 km CONUSnest ObsOps 4km NAMRR 4km NAMRR 3km 4 Hour Forecast valid 22 UTC 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 5 Prelim. Storm Reports from SPC (06/29/2012)

6. June 29-30, 2012 Derecho - 27 Hr Forecast NAMRR Test with 3 km CONUSnest Observations 3 km NAMRR CONUSnest Fhr=27 4 km Ops NAM CONUSnest Fhr=27 Significant improvement at longer lead times with 3 km NAMRR relative to Ops 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 6

7. Impact of Cloud Analysis on 4 km CONUSnest Reflectivity Forecasts Verification over CONUS for 2012 Derecho short-term forecasts (dBZ >= 30) Stats from 30 hourly forecast cycles. Lines falling outside the rectangles are significant at the p=0.05 level Blue = 4 km NAMRR CONUSnest with cloud analysis Red = 4 km NAMRR CONUSnest without cloud analysis F01F12 ETS F01F12 Bias 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 7 CTL Cloud Analysis Perfect frequency bias

8. NAMRR Testing of Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics 3 km CONUSNEST forecast column max radar reflectivity from the 20120628 12Z cycle using the repository microphysics (top) and the Ferrier-Aligo microphysics (bottom). On grid 227 (5 km). NAMRR is playing a role in current physics development. NMMB Repository Ferrier Microphysics Updated Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics tested in NAMRR 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 8 Increased number of forecast reflectivity values >= 50 dBZ. More consistent with observations. Obs FCST

9. 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 9 May 20 th, 2013 OK Severe Weather Event ETS NAMRR Nest Ops NAM Nest 5 km grid Fhr = 16 Valid 22Z ObsNAMRR 3kmOps 4km Fhr = 03 Valid 21Z Perfect frequency bias Bias 5 km grid

10. Ongoing and Future Work 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 10 Near Term NAMRR retrospective tests for comparison with upcoming NAM bundle Optimization (always improving) Long(er) Term Extend NAMRR from 2 to all 6 operational NAM domains Initial evaluations of NARRE+HRRRE TL (RAP/HRRR +NAMRR/NESTs) Test + evaluate in collaborative R2O settings? WPC-HMT Flash Flood and Winter Weather Experiments, SPC Spring Experiment? Planned for WCOSS Phase II (Petaflop): 2016-2018? Hybrid 4DEnVar Example of the direct assimilation of Doppler velocity and radar reflectivity via the GSI into a 1.33 km version of the NMMB. The figure compares observed column max reflectivity to a case of no assimilation (CTL), 3DVar, and various hybrid ensemble-3Dvar (Hyb) configurations during 1 hour of assimilating obs at 5 minute intervals (from J. Carley’s PhD dissertation).

11. May 20 th, 2013 OK Severe Weather – 1.33 km HiRes Nest Experiment 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 11 Max Hourly Updraft Helicity + Storm Reports Column-Max dBZObs Column-Max dBZ Where *might* WoF fit? -A locatable, on-demand, high-resolution set of nested ensemble members all featuring DA cycles -Adopt techniques and lessons learned from the WoF community! -Already doing something like this in Ops NAM with FireWX Nest (No DA, single member) ***Just an idea – but good to think about these things as we all progress*** HRRRE WoF NEST LOCATIONS FOR NEXT CYCLES 14Z Cycle Obs * Thanks to Eric Aligo for providing this run

12. Extra Slides 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 12

13. Convective Initiation: 3km NAMRR CONUSnest: 2013-08-15 @ 2200 UTC F07F06F08 F09 F10 OBS SPC MESO DISCUSSION #1709:...ASCENT INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT ENTERS THE ERN PART OF THE MCD AREA FROM SERN KS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIMITED DEEP SHEAR PER VWP DATA WILL KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY DISORGANIZED 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 13

14. POWER:Position of Offshore Wind Energy Resources Collaborative effort with DOE, ESRL/GSD, and ESRL/PSD o Provide information about observation networks needed to support offshore wind energy development Data denial experiments o Summer 2004 New England Air Quality Study deployed ~13 coastal wind profilers and one shipborne Doppler lidar in the New England area o POWER uses these pre-existing coastal profiler observations in a set of data-denial experiments with the NAMRR and RAP/HRRR systems  Shipborne lidar is used for verification o Two periods of study  July 10 th -17 th, 2004  August 6 th -12 th, 2004 08/0608/0808/0708/0908/1008/11 Courtesy of Yelena Pichugina NOAA Ron Brown ship tracks (August, 2004) NOAA Ron Brown http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/technology/vessels/ronbrown/ronbrown.html 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 14

15. August 6th-12th, 2004: 0-2km AGL vs. POWER profilers 2014 Warn-on-Forecast / High Impact Weather Workshop 15 RMSE Forecast Hour RAPX NAMRRX NAMRRX+RAPX NAMRR+RAPX vs. NAMRRX vs. RAPX Parent RMSE4 km CONUSNEST RMSE Forecast Hour CTL EXP CTL EXP All assimilated extra profilers in this case CTL: No Extra profiler assim. EXP: Extra profiler assim. All assimilated extra profilers in this case