4 Growth of installed capacity (MW)NTPC started adding capacity in 1982Excluding MW Captive Generating Capacity connected to Grid (2010)
5 Power Infrastructure in India (As on Nov’10) Fuel wise break-up (MW)Sector wise break-up (MW)Thermal10860264.0%Coal8977853.6%Gas1762410. 5%Diesel12000.7%Hydro3732822.3%Nuclear45602.7%Renewable1678711.0%TOTAL167277100.0%(Excluding captive capacity of MW connected to grid )(Source-CEA)5
6 DURING 2009-10, PEAKING SHORTAGES WERE 12.7% A deficit scenario persistsBillion Units10.1%11.1%9.9%9.6%8.3%8.8%7.3%DURING , PEAKING SHORTAGES WERE 12.7%
7 Projected Capacity Requirement 6.2%778 GW6.8%10.8%425 GW220 GW132 GWCAGR 7.3%Key Imperatives:Attract investment in power sectorEnsuring matching fuel availabilityAdd additional manufacturing capacityEffective project managementSource: Integrated Energy Policy GOI
8 Coal is the only proven source of Thermal Power Generation Reserves : 271 Billion TonnesProven category : 110 Billion TonnesNearly 87% of the total reserves are thermal coalLIGNITEReserves : 38.9 Billion TonnesProven category : 4.8 Billion TonnesNATURAL GASProven Reserves : 1.12 TCM78% domestic coal production is used for power generationCoal is going to be the main source of power generation in the country for at least next yearsSource: Geological Survey of India, MOPNG
9 12th Plan Capacity Addition FUELMWTHERMALHYDRONUCLEARTOTAL85000163604800106160
10 Meeting the Demand of coal Indian Economy provides robust demand of coalNational coal companies will not be able to meet the coal demand. Government of India is allocating captive coal blocks to match the rising demand.About 10% of coal required by India is being met by imports. Roughly 50% of total imports are contributed by coking coal.The setting up of the Coastal Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) based on imported coal has also been started.
12 WORLD COAL FACTS World has - 700 BT of proven thermal coal reserves. Majority in USA,RUSSIA,CHINA & INDIAProven world reserve of thermal coal could sustain current demand for over 140 years. (Assuming thermal coal reserves drawn down at current rate of production of 5.0 BT/Year).
13 World Coal Scenario Top Ten Coal Producers in the World in 2009-10 PR CHINA2971 MTUSA919MTINDIA526 MTAUSTRALIA335 MTSOUTH AFRICA247 MTRUSSIA229 MTINDONESIA263 MTKAZAKHSTAN96 MTPOLAND78 MTCOLUMBIA73 MT
14 Brief Analysis of coal facts There is a significant increase in coal consumption of about 41% during the period against previous 10 years period during which was about 16%.There is a steady increased demand of coal in Asia Pacific Region due to growing economy in India and China.The demand of coal in other parts of the world is declining.
16 Coal Reserves in India (as on 01-04-10) Billion tonnes ProvedIndicatedInferredCoking18142Non-Coking9210936Total11012338
17 RAW COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA Growth of coal production is 6-7% whereas demand for electricity has been growing at an average growth rate of 7% to 8% and demand supply gap has widened over the years.
18 Coal Producers in India in 2009-10 CIL431 MTSCCL46 MTCAPTIVE33 MTOTHERS16 MTTOTAL526 MT
19 COAL REQUIRMENT, AVALIABILITY AND IMPORT DURING XI PLAN FOR THE POWER SECTOR (Fig IN Million Tonnes) Sl.No.Detailsa)Indigenous coal requirement434.0488.0b)Requirement of imported coal for imported coal based projects10.019.0c)Total coal requirement444.0507.0d)Indigenous coal availability from:-CIL335360ii) SCCL32iii) Captive mines2122e)Total availability of indigenous coal388414f)Shortfall in indigenous coal availability (a-e)46.074.0g)Requirement of imported coal to meet the shortfall in indigenous coal availability30.749.3h)Total requirement of imported coal (b+g)40.768.3
20 REASON FOR COAL SHORTAGE Growth in the coal sector not commensurate with nation’s requirement of +8% GDP growth.Slow clearance of projects. In some cases linked mines are yet to be developed even though the power projects have been implemented on schedule.Captive blocks are way behind schedule.Import coal materialization is less due to bottleneck in the ports and Railway
21 REASON FOR DELAY IN DEVELOPMENT OF COAL BLOCKS Forest clearance for exploration.Most of the captive coal blocks are unexplored and need forest clearance before commencement of exploration.Environment and Forest clearance for the Coal mines.Delay in granting prospecting license.Land acquisition.Rail transportation of coal.
22 Coal Availability vis-a vis Govt. Policy NCDP 2007 ensures 100% satisfaction level for the power utilities and supply through legally enforceable FSA.Annual action plan for coal production by CIL, the major coal producer of INDIA, projected supply demand mismatch anticipated in the terminal year of XIth & XIITH plan to the tune of 234 MMT & 185 MMT respectively.This supply demand mismatch hindering the policy implementation. For new projects, guaranted quantity of supply is to the extent of 50% of the ACQ/Linkage achieving 45% PLF.
23 Coal Availability vis-a vis Govt. Policy This gap in policy and its implementation likely to discourage power developer.There is an urgent need to synchronize coal based thermal capacity addition and capacity addition for the coal production.With the prospect of accelerated nuclear capacity addition programme existing planned thermal coal based capacity addition need to be reviewed.
24 The Way ForwardCountry’s Power generation plans are at the cross roads of growth and poised for a quantum leap.Matching progress required in the coal sector through creation of enabling policy environment.
25 The Way ForwardIn the deficit scenario of coal, Government would have to create an enabling policy environment to facilitate –Greater domestic/captive production,CIL/SCCL to ensure total coal requirement (including import) for the power sector as per NCDP.Encouragement of setting up new power plant at coastal area with imported coal.
26 The Way ForwardPorts to be identified with power project for import/coastal cum riverine transport.There must be some integrated clearance for both coal linkage as well as movement clearance to power utilities.Supply of sized coal to power utilities.Incorporation of rapid loading system at each and every siding/mines of the coal company.
27 Measures to Beef up production From Existing Mines :Adaptation of modern technology to increase productivity.To increase the availability of the major HEMM ( Shovel, Dumper, Dragline, Dozer etc.).The rapid depletion of shallow reserves calls for exploitation of deep seated reserves through efficient technology. This can be done by inviting international players with state-of-the-art technologies.
28 Measures to Beef up production From Upcoming Mining Project :Time frame clearance of coal mining projects.Up front forest and environment clearanceAllocation of more coal blocks to private players/ end users with strict deadlines and steep penalties for failure.A special purpose vehicle (SPV) may be set up initially to take care of all regulatory clearances, which is then transferred to the Mine developer
30 NTPC - An Overview20 Coal Based and 8 Gas Based ProjectsCurrent Operating Capacity– 33,194 MW (Including JV of 3,364 MW)15,740 MW Under ConstructionLargest generator in India contributing about 28% of India’s generation with nearly 18% of capacity.
31 Operational Excellence No.1 in Capacity Utilization globallySix plants operated at PLF of >95%Dadri Stage-I achieved highest ever PLF of %Gas stations registered highest ever PLF of 78.38%PLF OF COAL STATIONSNTPC 1994NTPC 2010All India 2010NTPC coal stations achieved PLF of above 90% for 3rd consecutive year31
33 By 2032, NTPC targets a capacity of 128 GW with 28% capacity from non-fossil sources 2010~ 33 GW2032~ 128 GWBasket of projectsCoalGasNuclearHydroRenewablesFigures in MW* FR approved for XII Plan / XIII Plan33PPA signed for ~100,000MW
34 NTPC to become 1,28,000 MW Company by 2032 NTPC Coal requirement going to be increased multifold :YearCoal Based installed capacity (GW)Coal Requirement (MT)31.917235.419137.420139.721546.223154.927262.332271.5367
35 Short Term Strategies Import of coal E-Auction Tie up through MOU at premium price.To take up with CIL for finalization of FSA for new units at 90% commitment levelTransportation of coal through Inland Waterways at Farakka/Kahalgaon/BarhNTPC may contemplate handing over their own fleet of wagons to Railways for increased coal movement
36 SUPPLY THROUGH ACQ/LOA Supply & Import Projection of NTPC Stations (Till )YEARDemand (MMT)ACQ Supply (MMT)LOA** (MMT)SUPPLY THROUGH ACQ/LOA(MMT)Captive Supply (MMT)Supply thro E-Auction/MoU (MMT)DEFICIT (MMT)IMPORT (MMT)BLENDING (%)172125*151401022919112527152512820134159171162154416926423149174351427258183433825*CIL – SCCL – 10.2**Assuming coal availability through LOA at 70% PLF level.36
37 Inland Water Transport(IWT) NTPC has agreed for transportation of coal through IWT mode to the extent of 3 million tonnes (1 million tonne for Farakka and 2 million tonnes for Kahalgaon) per annum for a period of 7 years.A joint committee consisting of NTPC and IWAI has been constituted to finalize the modalities of Project Implementation.Back
38 Ganga- Bhagirathi-Hooghly National water way No-1 KahalgaonBarhFarakka
39 Medium Term Strategies Development of captive mines allotted.Acquisition of assets (Domestic and abroad).
40 Coal Production Projection – Captive mines Name of BlockEnd-Use ProjectMineable Reserves (MT)Ultimate Capacity (MTPA)Tentative Coal Production (MTPA) $PBShortfall in Lara+Darlipali503152.005.508.5011.5015.00CB + CB(S)Barh-II, Tanda Expn.148.6871.003.005.007.00KD142.0164.006.00DLDarlipali194.972.504.50TLLara848181.508.0013.00Total183753.0026.0037.0048.00
41 Coal Mine acquisition abroad NTPC is exploring options for acquisition of coal mines in Indonesia, Australia, South Africa and MozambiqueDue diligence to coal in Indonesia is going onICVL – JV of NTPC, SAIL, RINL, CIL and NMDC has also been entrusted responsibility of thermal coal mine acquisition abroad.CIL is also exploring options of acquisition of coal mines abroad. NTPC is in discussion with CIL
42 Planning Long term Coal Security Three Options exist for planning for long term coal security:Option 1Option 2Option 3Procure Low GCV coal so as to allow higher proportion of blendingIssues of Infrastructure bottleneck:Railway transport bottleneckHigher volume of coal importPort Infrastructure bottleneckTake part in Port Infrastructure Development and seek Railway support for transport of higher volumesRetrofit existing boilers and change specifications of new boilers so as to allow for higher GCV coal usageImpact on cost of generationHigh Expenditure of retrofittingIssues of high costsStations where retrofitting needs to be done is to be evaluatedLong term coal securityCoastal based projects running fully on imported coalStrategyTariff calculations? (pass-through)Choosing projects to be relocatedIssuesCoal pricing may be linked to CERC index or global coal indicesOlder projects of XII plan could be relocatedRemedies42
43 ENABLERS FOR COAL SOLVENCY Sourcing of coal by optimizing portfolio mix.( Domestic/Import/Captive/Acquiring Mines abroad etc).Uninterrupted Transportation System (MGR/IR).Well equipped unloading system at station end with sufficient redundancy.
44 Thank YouDisclaimer:The views expressed in this presentation are exclusively of the presenter, not necessarily of the Management of NTPC Ltd.