Growth of installed capacity (MW) NTPC started adding capacity in 1982 Excluding 19509 MW Captive Generating Capacity connected to Grid (2010)
Fuel wise break-up (MW) (Excluding captive capacity of 19509 MW connected to grid ) Thermal10860264.0% Coal8977853.6% Gas1762410. 5% Diesel1200 0.7% Hydro3732822.3% Nuclear 45602.7% Renewable1678711.0% TOTAL167277100.0% Sector wise break-up (MW) (Source-CEA) Power Infrastructure in India (As on Nov10)
8.8% 7.3% 8.3% 9.6% DURING 2009-10, PEAKING SHORTAGES WERE 12.7% 9.9% Billion Units A deficit scenario persists 11.1% 10.1%
Key Imperatives: Attract investment in power sector Ensuring matching fuel availability Add additional manufacturing capacity Effective project management 132 GW 220 GW 425 GW 778 GW Source: Integrated Energy Policy GOI 10.8% 6.8% 6.2% Projected Capacity Requirement CAGR 7.3%
COAL Reserves: 271 Billion Tonnes Proven category : 110 Billion Tonnes LIGNITE Reserves: 38.9 Billion Tonnes Proven category: 4.8 Billion Tonnes 78% domestic coal production is used for power generation Coal is going to be the main source of power generation in the country for at least next 25-30 years Source: Geological Survey of India, MOPNG Nearly 87% of the total reserves are thermal coal NATURAL GAS Proven Reserves: 1.12 TCM Coal is the only proven source of Thermal Power Generation
12 th Plan Capacity Addition THERMALHYDRONUCLEARTOTAL 85000163604800106160 MW FUEL
Indian Economy provides robust demand of coal National coal companies will not be able to meet the coal demand. Government of India is allocating captive coal blocks to match the rising demand. About 10% of coal required by India is being met by imports. Roughly 50% of total imports are contributed by coking coal. The setting up of the Coastal Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) based on imported coal has also been started. Meeting the Demand of coal
WORLD COAL FACTS World has - 700 BT of proven thermal coal reserves. Majority in USA,RUSSIA,CHINA & INDIA Proven world reserve of thermal coal could sustain current demand for over 140 years. (Assuming thermal coal reserves drawn down at current rate of production of 5.0 BT/Year).
World Coal Scenario Top Ten Coal Producers in the World in 2009-10 PR CHINA2971 MT USA919MT INDIA526 MT AUSTRALIA335 MT SOUTH AFRICA247 MT RUSSIA229 MT INDONESIA263 MT KAZAKHSTAN96 MT POLAND78 MT COLUMBIA73 MT
Brief Analysis of coal facts There is a significant increase in coal consumption of about 41% during the period 1999-2009 against previous 10 years period during 1989-99 which was about 16%. There is a steady increased demand of coal in Asia Pacific Region due to growing economy in India and China. The demand of coal in other parts of the world is declining.
Coal Reserves in India (as on 01-04-10) Billion tonnes ProvedIndicatedInferred Coking18142 Non-Coking9210936 Total11012338
RAW COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA Growth of coal production is 6-7% whereas demand for electricity has been growing at an average growth rate of 7% to 8% and demand supply gap has widened over the years.
Coal Producers in India in 2009-10 CIL431 MT SCCL 46 MT CAPTIVE 33 MT OTHERS16 MT TOTAL526 MT
COAL REQUIRMENT, AVALIABILITY AND IMPORT DURING XI PLAN FOR THE POWER SECTOR (Fig IN Million Tonnes) Sl.No. Details 2010-112011-12 a)Indigenous coal requirement434.0488.0 b)Requirement of imported coal for imported coal based projects 10.019.0 c)Total coal requirement444.0507.0 d)Indigenous coal availability from:- i)CIL335360 ii) SCCL32 iii) Captive mines2122 e)Total availability of indigenous coal388414 f)Shortfall in indigenous coal availability (a-e) 46.074.0 g)Requirement of imported coal to meet the shortfall in indigenous coal availability 30.749.3 h)Total requirement of imported coal (b+g)40.768.3
REASON FOR COAL SHORTAGE Growth in the coal sector not commensurate with nations requirement of +8% GDP growth. Slow clearance of projects. In some cases linked mines are yet to be developed even though the power projects have been implemented on schedule. Captive blocks are way behind schedule. Import coal materialization is less due to bottleneck in the ports and Railway
REASON FOR DELAY IN DEVELOPMENT OF COAL BLOCKS Forest clearance for exploration. Most of the captive coal blocks are unexplored and need forest clearance before commencement of exploration. Environment and Forest clearance for the Coal mines. Delay in granting prospecting license. Land acquisition. Rail transportation of coal.
Coal Availability vis-a vis Govt. Policy NCDP 2007 ensures 100% satisfaction level for the power utilities and supply through legally enforceable FSA. Annual action plan for coal production by CIL, the major coal producer of INDIA, projected supply demand mismatch anticipated in the terminal year of XIth & XIITH plan to the tune of 234 MMT & 185 MMT respectively. This supply demand mismatch hindering the policy implementation. For new projects, guaranted quantity of supply is to the extent of 50% of the ACQ/Linkage achieving 45% PLF.
Coal Availability vis-a vis Govt. Policy This gap in policy and its implementation likely to discourage power developer. There is an urgent need to synchronize coal based thermal capacity addition and capacity addition for the coal production. With the prospect of accelerated nuclear capacity addition programme existing planned thermal coal based capacity addition need to be reviewed.
The Way Forward Countrys Power generation plans are at the cross roads of growth and poised for a quantum leap. Matching progress required in the coal sector through creation of enabling policy environment.
The Way Forward In the deficit scenario of coal, Government would have to create an enabling policy environment to facilitate – Greater domestic/captive production, CIL/SCCL to ensure total coal requirement (including import) for the power sector as per NCDP. Encouragement of setting up new power plant at coastal area with imported coal.
The Way Forward Ports to be identified with power project for import/coastal cum riverine transport. There must be some integrated clearance for both coal linkage as well as movement clearance to power utilities. Supply of sized coal to power utilities. Incorporation of rapid loading system at each and every siding/mines of the coal company.
Measures to Beef up production From Existing Mines : Adaptation of modern technology to increase productivity. To increase the availability of the major HEMM ( Shovel, Dumper, Dragline, Dozer etc.). The rapid depletion of shallow reserves calls for exploitation of deep seated reserves through efficient technology. This can be done by inviting international players with state-of-the-art technologies.
Measures to Beef up production From Upcoming Mining Project : –Time frame clearance of coal mining projects. –Up front forest and environment clearance –Allocation of more coal blocks to private players/ end users with strict deadlines and steep penalties for failure. –A special purpose vehicle (SPV) may be set up initially to take care of all regulatory clearances, which is then transferred to the Mine developer
20 Coal Based and 8 Gas Based Projects Current Operating Capacity– 33,194 MW (Including JV of 3,364 MW) 15,740 MW Under Construction Largest generator in India contributing about 28% of Indias generation with nearly 18% of capacity. NTPC - An Overview
31 No.1 in Capacity Utilization globally Six plants operated at PLF of >95% Dadri Stage-I achieved highest ever PLF of 100.59% Gas stations registered highest ever PLF of 78.38% NTPC coal stations achieved PLF of above 90% for 3rd consecutive year NTPC 1994 NTPC 2010 All India 2010 PLF OF COAL STATIONS Operational Excellence
33 2010 ~ 33 GW 2010 ~ 33 GW Basket of projects Figures in MW * FR approved for XII Plan / XIII Plan By 2032, NTPC targets a capacity of 128 GW with 28% capacity from non-fossil sources Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables PPA signed for ~100,000MW 2032 ~ 128 GW
NTPC to become 1,28,000 MW Company by 2032 NTPC Coal requirement going to be increased multifold : Year Coal Based installed capacity (GW) Coal Requirement (MT) 2011-1231.9172 2012-1335.4191 2013-1437.4201 2014-1539.7215 2015-1646.2231 2016-1754.9272 2021-2262.3322 2031-3271.5367
Short Term Strategies 1. Import of coal Import of coal 2. E-Auction 3. Tie up through MOU at premium price. 4. To take up with CIL for finalization of FSA for new units at 90% commitment level 5. Transportation of coal through Inland Waterways at Farakka/Kahalgaon/BarhInland Waterways 6. NTPC may contemplate handing over their own fleet of wagons to Railways for increased coal movement
YEAR Demand (MMT) ACQ Supply (MMT) LOA** (MMT) SUPPLY THROUGH ACQ/LOA (MMT) Captiv e Supply (MMT) Supply thro E- Auctio n/MoU (MMT) DEFICIT (MMT) IMPORT (MMT) BLEND ING (%) 2011-12 172125*15 140 01022159 2012-13 19112527 152 51222158 2013-14 20112534 159 151017116 2014-15 21512544 169 2681284 2015-16 23112549 174 3581494 2016-17 27212558 183 438382510 Supply & Import Projection of NTPC Stations (Till 2016-17) **Assuming coal availability through LOA at 70% PLF level. *CIL – 114.7 + SCCL – 10.2
Inland Water Transport(IWT ) NTPC has agreed for transportation of coal through IWT mode to the extent of 3 million tonnes (1 million tonne for Farakka and 2 million tonnes for Kahalgaon) per annum for a period of 7 years. A joint committee consisting of NTPC and IWAI has been constituted to finalize the modalities of Project Implementation. Back
Ganga- Bhagirathi-Hooghly National water way No-1 Kahalgaon FarakkaBarh
Medium Term Strategies Development of captive mines allotted. Acquisition of assets (Domestic and abroad).
Coal Production Projection – Captive mines Nam e of Bloc k End-Use Project Mineable Reserves (MT) Ultimate Capacity (MTPA) Tentative Coal Production (MTPA) $ 2012-13 2013- 14 2014- 15 2015- 16 2016- 17 PB Shortfall in Lara+Darlip ali 503152.005.508.5011.5015.00 CB + CB(S ) Barh-II, Tanda Expn. 148.6871.003.005.007.00 KD142.0162.004.006.00 DLDarlipali194.9771.002.504.507.00 TLLara848181.504.008.0013.00 Total183753.005.0015.0026.0037.0048.00
Coal Mine acquisition abroad NTPC is exploring options for acquisition of coal mines in Indonesia, Australia, South Africa and Mozambique Due diligence to coal in Indonesia is going on ICVL – JV of NTPC, SAIL, RINL, CIL and NMDC has also been entrusted responsibility of thermal coal mine acquisition abroad. CIL is also exploring options of acquisition of coal mines abroad. NTPC is in discussion with CIL
Planning Long term Coal Security 42 Three Options exist for planning for long term coal security: Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Strategy Issues Remedies Coastal based projects running fully on imported coal Tariff calculations? (pass-through) Choosing projects to be relocated Coal pricing may be linked to CERC index or global coal indices Older projects of XII plan could be relocated
ENABLERS FOR COAL SOLVENCY Sourcing of coal by optimizing portfolio mix.( Domestic/Import/Captive/Acquiring Mines abroad etc). Uninterrupted Transportation System (MGR/IR). Well equipped unloading system at station end with sufficient redundancy.
Thank You Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are exclusively of the presenter, not necessarily of the Management of NTPC Ltd.