1. Nominal and Real Convergence of Slovak Republic and Poland to Eurozone Rudolf Gavliak, Vladimír Úradníček, Emília Zimková The 5 th Chorzow Conference of Banking and Finance Knowledge and Funds Transfer into the Sectors of the EU Economy September 26 – 27, 2008

2. Content 1.Introduction 2.Methodology and Data 3.Outcome of Analyses 4.Conclusion

3. Introduction Real Structural Classification of the Convergence Nominal

4. Nominal Convergence (1) Price stability Public FinanceExchange RateInterest rates 10 y Czech Rep. HICPDef/HDPDebt/HDP 20062,1-2,729,4No4,83,8 20073,0-1,628,7No2,04,3 20084,4-1,428,1No8,44,5 Hungary20064,0-9,265,5No-6,57,1 20077,9-5,566,0No 4,96,7 20087,5-4,066,5No-2,76,9 Source: Convergence Report 2008

5. Nominal Convergence (2) Price stability Public FinanceExchange RateInterest rates 10 y Poland HICPDef/HDPDebt/HDPERM IIApprec /Deprec 20061,3-3,847,6No3,25,2 20072,6-2,045,2No2,95,5 20083,2-2,544,5No6,35,7 Slovak Rep. 20064,3-3,630,4No3,54,4 20071,9-2,229,4No9,34,5 20082,2-2,735,5No2,54,5 Source: Convergence Report 2008

6. Structural Convergence 1.The structural convergence is analysing convergence of the economy according its sectors, employment, inovations, research, economic reforms, social and enviromental policies... 2.It is also analysing the harmonisation of the economic cycles and the synchronisation of economics shocks (Gavliak, Úradníček, Zimková, 2007, SVAR technique, the Blanchard-Quah teoretical approach).

7. Real Convergence 1.The real convegence can be measured by economic performance, the level of labour productivity, the level of prices and wages (Barančok, 2007) 2.Commonly used indicator to meassure the economic convergence is the gross domestic product in the purchasing power parity (HDP PPP ).

8. Methodology „Real economic convergence“ can be estimated by  β convergence  σ convergence  Cointegration and Error Correction Models

9. Methodology - β convergence β convergence is a concept which is estimating the speed of convergence of the individual country to the average of clusstered countries. When the partial correlation between growth in income over time and its initial level is negative, there is β convergence.

10. Methodology - σ convergence When the dispersion of real per capita income across a group of economies falls over time, there is σ convergence.

11. Methodology – Cointegration and ECM  Long lasting mutual trend of analysed indicators is searched by cointegration.  In a short term there might be some deviations which are studied by error correction models (ECM).  The output is twofold: we analyze the long-lasting equilibrium of the real economy and secondly we estimate the duration whithin which the searched variables are returning to the long-lasting equilibrium in the case of the short-term deviations.

12. Methodology – Cointegration and ECM The cointegrating equations may have intercepts and deterministic trends We provided tests for the following five possibilities considered by Johansen

13. Johansen tests 1. Series y have no deterministic trends and the cointegrating equations do not have intercepts 2. Series y have no deterministic trends and the cointegrating equations have intercepts

14. Johansen tests 3. Series y have linear trends but the cointegrating equations have only intercepts: 4. Both series y and the cointegrating equations have linear trends:

15. Johansen tests 5. Series y have quadratic trends and the cointegrating equations have linear trends: where is the (non-unique) k x (k - r) matrix such that and

16. Data and Software  For analyses were used quarterly input data from Eurostat datasource  We analysed detrended data from first quarter 2000 till the fist quarter 2008  EViews 4 software

17. Empirical Results of Cointegration analyses – case of Slovakia The cointegration equation, which is characterising the long-lasting equilibrium, has the following specification: where – y-on-y growth of the Gross Domestic Product in Slovakia (in %), – y-on-y growth of the Gross Domestic Product in Euroarea (in %).

18. Empirical Results of Cointegration analyses – case of Slovakia Error Correction Coefficients estimated in the Error Correction Model D(RASTHDP_SR)-0.164680 (0.05673) D(RASTHDP_EA12) 0.099963 (0.05393)

19. Empirical Results of Cointegration analyses – case of Poland The cointegration equation, which is characterising the long-lasting equilibrium, has the following specification: where – y-on-y growth of the Gross Domestic Product in Poland (in %), – y-on-y growth of the Gross Domestic Product in Euroarea (in %).

20. Empirical Results of Cointegration analyses – case of Poland Error Correction Coefficients estimated in the Error Correction Model D(RASTHDP_PL)-0.1488 (0.06414) D(RASTHDP_EA12) 0.132470 (0.06315)

21. Conclusion  The results of cointegration analyses proved solid the real convergence of the Slovak Republic and Poland to Euroarea.  The entry of both countries to the EMU might be a new incentive to the dynamic economic development.  To speed up this proces the implementation of the responsible economic, fiscal and labour market policies, the introduction a new structure of the economy based on the new technologies are requested.