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Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Department of Earthquake Engineering Boğaziçi University, Istanbul ISTANBUL TEST SITE SAFER Final.

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Presentation on theme: "Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Department of Earthquake Engineering Boğaziçi University, Istanbul ISTANBUL TEST SITE SAFER Final."— Presentation transcript:

1 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Department of Earthquake Engineering Boğaziçi University, Istanbul ISTANBUL TEST SITE SAFER Final Meeting, GFZ, Potsdam June

2 SAFER Project, Test Site Istanbul Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System Istanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) System Istanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) System Istanbul Structural Monitoring Networks Shake and Los Mapping Shake and Los Mapping

3 ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM The Early Warning part of the I-NET 10+2 strong motion stations were located as close as possible to the Great Marmara Fault zone in on-line mode. Data Transmission is provided with Spread Spectrum Radio Modem and Satellite. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes.

4 DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY WARNING STATIONS and RADIO-MODEM TRANSMISSION Satellite Connection

5 REAL-TIME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE RELATED PARAMETERS Many researchers have investigated the relationships between the earthquake damage and the ground motion parameters such as peak ground motion amplitudes, spectral amplitudes at selected periods. Arias Intensity, Cumulative Absolute Velocity and Housners Spectrum Intensity. Nakamura (2004) defined the so-called Destructive Intensity, DI, represented by the logarithm of the absolute value of the inner product of the acceleration and a velocity vectors: DI = log (|Σ( a.v )|), MMI=(11/7)*DI

6 BCAV – Window Length=1s BCAV – W (Window Length=8s)

7 Correlation between CAV and computed seismic intensity (Computed Seismic Intensities are obtained from the FAS of simulated accelerograms using Sokolov (2002))

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10 Early Warning times from 280 simulated earthquakes

11 EEW FAST TRAIN AND TUBE TUNNEL

12 IGDAŞ Service Network Earthquake Monıtorıng BOĞAZİÇİ DISTRICT DIRECTORY ANADOLU DISTRICT DIRECTORY İSTANBUL DISTRICT DIRECTORY

13 ELECTRIC POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Potential Uses of EW in Istanbul HEAVY INDUSTRY

14

15 ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RAPID RESPONSE SYSTEM STATIONS

16 KOERI IEWRRS 100 Station + İGDAŞ (Istanbul Gas Company) 100 Station Expansion by the end of 2009

17 After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming three- channel strong motion data to yield the Spectral accelerations at specific periods, 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through the AVEA - GSM communication system by using several base stations, microwave system and landlines. Spectral displacements obtained from the SMS messages sent from stations are interpolated to determine the spectral displacement values at the center of each geo-cell (0.01 x 0.01 ). The seismic demand at the center of each geo-cell is computed using these spectral displacements. Using the capacities of the buildings (24 types) in each geo-cell the building damage is computed by using the spectral-displacement based fragility curves (Capacity Spectrum Procedure).

18 Capacity Spectrum-type Building Damage Assessment

19 Location of earthquakes recorded by the system Information on recorded Earthquakes

20 Sept. 29, 2004 Marmara Sea Earthquake (M4) ShakeMap (Cambell and Bozorognia, 2008) with no consideration of instrumental data and site response

21 Empirical Data Incorporated (Bias adjustment at surface) Empirical Data and Site Response Incorporated

22 March Earthquake Shake and Loss Map

23 Communication of Rapid Response Message (Damage Maps) (Mobile phones and PDAs) (Mobile phones and PDAs) Municipality Governorate 1 st Army NUMBER OF COLLAPSED BUILDINGS PER CELL (Simulated from random data and communicated to end users every day at 10am)

24 WLAN Classical Seismological Station Central Side: A normal Node Visualization Backup, Monitoring DSL City The development of a new seismic network for earthquake early warning (EEW), made up of low-cost sensors that will eventually be purchasable by a range of end users, giving very dense urban networks The Seismological SOSEWIN will complement existing EEW networks. Gateways (Internet) Public Node Low Cost Node Ref: Picozzi et. al. Istanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) System

25 18 Sensing Nodes 2 Gateways + Sensing Nodes Testing SOSEWIN: Ataköy district, Istanbul Ref: Picozzi et. al.

26 Testing SOSEWIN: Fatih-Mehmet suspension bridge, Istanbul Experimental array of 24 nodes: 10 along each side of bridge, 2 on either side of each tower. Node installed in one tower Node installed along the side Ref: Picozzi et. al.

27 S678C S6770 S6128 S61BC S675C S6754 S6174 S6190 S6124 S61A0 S6778S6198 S677C S6168 S61A4 S61D4 S676C S61C0 S6750 S6794 S6798 S61B4 S61A8 S67A0 about 1000 m 24 SOSEWIN nodes recorded bridge vibrations for about 2 hours Time series Spectra Ref: Picozzi et. al.

28 BOĞAZİÇİ BRIDGE Structural Health Monitoring FATIH BRIDGE

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30 İŞ-KULEENRON-TRAKYA ELEKTRIK

31 Hagia Sophia Structural Health Monitoring Hagia Sophia Hagia Sophia Suleymaniye Suleymaniye Fatih Fatih Mihrimah Mihrimah Tube Tunnel Tube Tunnel

32 Implementation of online Shake Mapping The installation and customization of the USGS Shakemap code was completed in 2006 Test runs in scenario mode were made for some of the past earthquakes in Turkey, Alternatively, an earthquake shaking and loss estimation routine (ELER) has been developed in connection with the EU FP6 NERIES project.

33 NERIES JRA3 ELER SOFTWARE

34 In Hazard Assessment Module Modified USGS Shake-map algorithm In Loss Assessment Module For Building Damage Estimation: Intensity Based Vulnerability (Level 1) Macro-seismic method implicitly defined by EMS-98 scale (Giovinazzi S., 2005) Spectral Displacement- Based Vulnerability (Level 2) Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM) Modified Acceleration – Displacement Response Spectrum Method (MADRS) Reduction Factor Method Coefficient Method For Casualty Estimation: Samardjieva & Badal (2002) – Level 0 Intensity based fatality rates – Level 0 KOERI (with ATC-13) – Level 1 HAZUS99 – Level 2 HAZUS-MH – Level 2 Methodologies used in ELER Software

35 Earthquake Hazard Module Calculation Methodology

36 Utilized Attenuation Relations Ground Motion Estimation Akkar & Bommer 2007 Boore & Atkinson 2007 Boore et al Campbell & Bozorgnia 2007 Instrumental Intensity Estimation Wald et al Sokolov 2002

37 Intensity distribution (ShakeMap) Kocaeli earthquake Observed Intensity Distribution FAS (Sokolov) Method PGA/PGV-Intensity Correlations Wald et al. (1999) Regional Intensity Attenuation Relationship

38 Google Earth KML Output of Earthquake Hazard Module Intensity as Polygons Intensity as Lines KML outputs

39 Level 1 (Intensity based building damage and casualty assessment) Grid-based analysis Estimations in regional and/or country scale Basic input data available for Europe, for crude estimations of building damage User defined building inventories are accommodated Intensity based structural vulnerabilities from Lagomarsiono and Giovinazzi (2006) (EMS-98 Vulnerability Classes, Vulnerability Indices (V, Q), Vulnerability Curves, Damage Probability Matrices) Level 1 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

40 Level 1 - Methodology based on Vulnerability Indices RISK-UE Building Typology Matrix Ref: Giovinazzi S.,(2005) European building typology

41 Level 1 - Methodology based on EMS98 Vulnerability Classes D3: Substantial to heavy damage

42 Level 1 – Casualty Estimation Koeri,2002 Coburn&Spence

43 Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens Earthquake Level 0 and Level Athens Earthquake Estimated Intensity Distribution The 7 September 1999 M6 Athens earthquake In total 143 people were killed, 1600 people were injured and at least 53,000 buildings were reported to be damaged by this earthquake.

44 Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation Estimated Number of Damaged Buildings (3080 buildings in Damage States D3 + D4 + D5)

45 Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation Estimated Number of Deaths (Total: 236 people)

46 Stations Data From: ake/ /intensity.html ake/ /intensity.html Fault Data From: csem.org/index.php?page=current =rec ent&evt= _ITALY ) csem.org/index.php?page=current =rec ent&evt= _ITALY

47 Bias Adjustment at Surface Instead of B/C Boundary

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49 Level 2 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology Grid- (geo-cell) based urban building inventory and population data. The spectral capacity-based vulnerability assessment methodology is utilized for the building damage estimation. The casualty estimation is based on the number of buildings in each different damage state.

50 RISK-UE Building Typology Matrix Model Building Types of HAZUS-1999

51 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR ISTANBUL The "Credible Worst Case" Scenario event: An Mw=7.5 (similar to 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in magnitude and in total rupture length) which is assumed to take place on the fault segments 5, 6, 7 and 8.

52 DISTRIBUTION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS

53 DISTRIBUTION OF CASUALITIES

54 THANK YOU


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