Presentation on theme: "ISTANBUL TEST SITE Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Department of Earthquake Engineering."— Presentation transcript:
1ISTANBUL TEST SITEKandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research InstituteDepartment of Earthquake Engineering Boğaziçi University, IstanbulSAFER Final Meeting, GFZ, PotsdamJune
2SAFER Project, Test Site Istanbul Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response SystemIstanbul Earthquake Early Warning SystemIstanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) SystemIstanbul Structural Monitoring NetworksShake and Los Mapping
3ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM The Early Warning part of the I-NET 10+2 strong motion stations were located as close as possible to the Great Marmara Fault zone in “on-line” mode.Data Transmission is provided with Spread Spectrum Radio Modem and Satellite.The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes.3
4DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY WARNING STATIONS and RADIO-MODEM TRANSMISSION Satellite Connection
5REAL-TIME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE RELATED PARAMETERS Many researchers have investigated the relationships between the earthquake damage and the ground motion parameters such as peak ground motion amplitudes, spectral amplitudes at selected periods.Arias Intensity, Cumulative Absolute Velocity and Housner’s Spectrum Intensity.Nakamura (2004) defined the so-called “Destructive Intensity, DI”, represented by the logarithm of the absolute value of the inner product of the acceleration and a velocity vectors:DI = log (|Σ(a.v)|), MMI=(11/7)*DI5
6BCAV – Window Length=1sBCAV – W (Window Length=8s)
7Correlation between CAV and computed seismic intensity (Computed Seismic Intensities are obtained from the FAS of simulated accelerograms using Sokolov (2002))7
15ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RAPID RESPONSE SYSTEM STATIONS 15
16Expansion by the end of 2009 KOERI IEWRRS 100 Station + İGDAŞ (Istanbul Gas Company) 100 Station16
17After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming three-channel strong motion data to yield the Spectral accelerations at specific periods, 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through the AVEA - GSM communication system by using several base stations, microwave system and landlines.Spectral displacements obtained from the SMS messages sent from stations are interpolated to determine the spectral displacement values at the center of each geo-cell (0.01 x 0.01).The seismic demand at the center of each geo-cell is computed using these spectral displacements.Using the capacities of the buildings (24 types) in each geo-cell the building damage is computed by using the spectral-displacement based fragility curves (Capacity Spectrum Procedure).
18Capacity Spectrum-type Building Damage Assessment
19Location of earthquakes recorded by the system Information on recorded Earthquakes19
20Sept. 29, 2004 Marmara Sea Earthquake (M4) ShakeMap (Cambell and Bozorognia, 2008) with no consideration of instrumental data and site response20
21Empirical Data Incorporated (Bias adjustment at surface) Empirical Data and Site Response Incorporated
23Municipality Governorate 1st Army Communication of Rapid Response Message (Damage Maps)(Mobile phones and PDA’s)Governorate1st ArmyNUMBER OF COLLAPSED BUILDINGS PER CELL (Simulated from random data and communicated to end users every day at 10am)
24Istanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) System The development of a new seismic network for earthquake early warning (EEW), made up of low-cost sensors that will eventually be purchasable by a range of end users, giving very dense urban networksThe Seismological SOSEWIN will complement existing EEW networks.ClassicalSeismological StationCityWLANDSLCentral Side:A normal NodeVisualizationBackup, MonitoringGateways (Internet)Public NodeLow Cost NodeRef: Picozzi et. al.
25Testing SOSEWIN: Ataköy district, Istanbul Example of Earthquake recordings.18 Sensing Nodes2 Gateways + Sensing NodesRef: Picozzi et. al.
26Testing SOSEWIN: Fatih-Mehmet suspension bridge, Istanbul Experimental array of 24 nodes: 10 along each side of bridge, 2 on either side of each tower.Node installed in one towerNode installed along the sideRef: Picozzi et. al.
2724 SOSEWIN nodes recorded bridge vibrations for about 2 hours about 1000 mS678CS6770S6128S61BCS675CS6754S6174S6190S6124S61A0S6778S6198S677CS6168S61A4S61D4S676CS61C0S6750S6794S6798S61B4S61A8S67A0SpectraTime seriesIn contrast to the high cost standard instrumentation, the low cost SOSEWIN sensors makes it possible the set up of a dense network for the monitoring of structuresRef: Picozzi et. al.
28Structural Health Monitoring BOĞAZİÇİ BRIDGEFATIH BRIDGE
30ENRON-TRAKYA ELEKTRIK İŞ-KULEENRON-TRAKYA ELEKTRIK
31Structural Health Monitoring Hagia SophiaSuleymaniyeFatihMihrimahTube TunnelHagia Sophia31
32Implementation of online Shake Mapping The installation and customization of the USGS Shakemap code was completed in 2006Test runs in scenario mode were made for some of the past earthquakes in Turkey,Alternatively, an earthquake shaking and loss estimation routine (ELER) has been developed in connection with the EU FP6 NERIES project.
33NERIES JRA3 ELER SOFTWARE Now I will give you a brief information on ELER softwareThe software mainly has two modules which are the Earthquake Hazard Assessment module and the Earthquake Loss Assessment module.Earthquake Hazard Assessment module provides us estimation of ground motion parameters and intensity distributions using ground motion attenuation relations, correlation between intensity and ground motion parameters and soil condition information.Earthquake Loss Assessment module uses ground motion parameters and intensity information from Earthquake Hazard Assessment module, demography and building inventory. This module includes three levels (Level0, Level1 and Level2) of analysis for estimation of building damages and casualties. Level0 analysis estimates casualties based on magnitude and intensity information. Level1 analysis estimates casualties and building damages based on intensity information, Level2 analysis estimates casualties and building damages based on ground motion and spectral parameters.
34Methodologies used in ELER Software In Hazard Assessment ModuleModified USGS Shake-map algorithmIn Loss Assessment ModuleFor Building Damage Estimation:Intensity Based Vulnerability (Level 1)Macro-seismic method implicitly defined by EMS-98 scale (Giovinazzi S., 2005)Spectral Displacement- Based Vulnerability (Level 2)Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM)Modified Acceleration – Displacement Response Spectrum Method (MADRS)Reduction Factor MethodCoefficient MethodFor Casualty Estimation:Samardjieva & Badal (2002) – Level 0Intensity based fatality rates – Level 0KOERI (with ATC-13) – Level 1HAZUS99 – Level 2HAZUS-MH – Level 2I will give more detailed information on hazard module and loss estimation module
35Earthquake Hazard Module Calculation Methodology The user has two options to enter the event data. The first option is to use an XML file containing the event parameters and station information, if available. The second option is to enter event data manually from the Hazard GUI.The EHA module has three options to define the earthquake source which are: user defined point source, user defined extended source and auto assigned extended source.The Site Correction panel determines how the effect of the local site conditions will be incorporated into the calculations of ground motion parametersNo Site Correction: In this mode all ground motion estimations are calculated at the engineering bedrockBorcherds: all ground motion parameters are calculated at the engineering bedrock. The obtained grid based ground motion is then corrected with the site amplification factors (Fa and Fv) given in Borcherdt (1994) according to the selected Vs30 map.In Eurocode 8 mode only the peak ground acceleration values are modified according to the site condition. Thus in this mode ELER produces only the site corrected PGA distributionNGA at Surface: In this newly developed approach rather than calculating bedrock values and then amplifying these with respect to site conditions, ELER software uses attenuation relationships taking Vs30 as an input parameter to calculate the ground motion values directly at the surfaceSite condition is represented by a parameter: the upper 30-m average shear wave-velocity (Vs30). The user has the following two options in choosing the site condition.The default site condition map has been compiled from the USGS Global Vs30 Map Server.Custom site condition maps should be in form of Vs30 gridsThe final stage of the input specification is the selection of attenuation relationships. Since different attenuations are derived from different event catalogues the user should select a suitable attenuation taking into account the regional characteristics, magnitude and ground motion parameter of interest.The selected attenuation is used to estimate measurable ground motion parameters such as PGA and spectral accelerations. Each attenuation function has its unique set of input parameters resulting from the regression analysis.In addition to the ground motion parameters PGA, PGV, Sa and Sd, ground shaking intensity is also estimated through the regression relationships between MMI and PGA-PGV (Wald and others, 1999), and MMI-MSK and Fourier amplitude Spectrum (FAS).
37Intensity distribution (ShakeMap) - 1999 Kocaeli earthquake FAS (Sokolov) MethodObserved Intensity DistributionPGA/PGV-Intensity CorrelationsWald et al. (1999)Regional Intensity AttenuationRelationship
38Google Earth KML Output of Earthquake Hazard Module Intensity as LinesIntensity as PolygonsKML outputs
39Level 1 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology Level 1 (Intensity based building damage and casualty assessment)Grid-based analysisEstimations in regional and/or country scaleBasic input data available for Europe, for crude estimations of building damageUser defined building inventories are accommodatedIntensity based structural vulnerabilities from Lagomarsiono and Giovinazzi (2006) (EMS-98 Vulnerability Classes, Vulnerability Indices (V, Q), Vulnerability Curves, Damage Probability Matrices)In Level-1 analysis we estimate casualties through building damage. Here, in addition to the demography we need to have building inventory.
40Level 1 - Methodology based on Vulnerability Indices RISK-UE Building Typology MatrixEuropean building typologyAfter obtaining the number of buildings we need to also estimate building structural types, height and age. These information were provided in percentages from Pager database, and adapted to the European building typology. The Risk-UE Building Typology Matrix has been used to assign the vulnerability indices for each building type.The PAGER project provides the percentages of different construction types in all countries of the world for both urban and rural settlements and residential and non-residential occupancy types, making use of a HAZUS type classification. Corresponding European Building Taxonomy classes have been identified for the structural types of the PAGER classification system. Then these percentages have been used to convert the approximated grid based number of buildings to an inventory of different structural types in each county.Ref: Giovinazzi S.,(2005)
41Level 1 - Methodology based on EMS98 Vulnerability Classes D3: Substantial to heavy damage
43Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens Earthquake Level 0 and Level 1 Estimated Intensity DistributionThe 7 September 1999 M6 Athens earthquakeIn total 143 people were killed, 1600 people were injured and at least 53,000 buildings were reported to be damaged by this earthquake.
44Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation Estimated Number of Damaged Buildings (3080 buildings in Damage States D3 + D4 + D5)
45Estimated Number of Deaths (Total: 236 people) Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens Earthquake Level 1 Building Damage and Casualty EstimationEstimated Number of Deaths (Total: 236 people)
46Stations Data From: http://earthquake. rm. ingv Fault Data From: )
47Bias Adjustment at Surface Instead of B/C Boundary
49Level 2 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology The spectral capacity-based vulnerability assessment methodology is utilized for the building damage estimation.The casualty estimation is based on the number of buildings in each different damage state.Grid- (geo-cell) based urban building inventory and population data.
50Building Typology Matrix Model Building Types of HAZUS-1999 RISK-UEBuilding Typology MatrixModel Building Types of HAZUS-1999
51EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR ISTANBUL The "Credible Worst Case" Scenario event:An Mw=7.5 (similar to 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in magnitude and in total rupture length) which is assumed to take place on the fault segments 5, 6, 7 and 8.