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EARLY-WARNING TEST-SITE NAPLES Giovanni Iannaccone INGV – AMRA scarl Final Project Meeting: Potsdam June, 3-5,2009 With the main contribution of RISSC-Lab team: A. Bobbio, L. Cantore, V. Convertito, M. Corciulo, M. DiCrosta, L. Elia, A. Emolo, G. Festa, I. Iervolino, M. Lancieri, C. Martino, C. Satriano, T. Stabile, M. Vassallo, A. Zollo and P. Gasparini

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The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) of AMRA

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INGV catalogue ( ), M>2.5 Current seismicity

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Local eq detected by ISNet ( 400 events since January 2008, 1 < M < 3.0)

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28 Sites OSIRIS CMG-5T S13-J Trillium 40S or and Wi-Fi Radio Link Trevico S. Angelo dei Lombardi ToppodiCastelgrande Contursi Picerno CNR-IMAA Local Control Center Lapio Rocca S. Felice S. SossioBaronia Rocchetta S. Antonio Bisaccia Andretta Calitri Ruvo del Monte ToppodiCastelgrande Avigliano San Fele Bella MuroLucano 2 MuroLucano 1 Colliano Campagna Senerchia Montella Nusco Postiglione S. Arsenio Caggiano Vietridi Potenza Satriano Pignola Lioni Monte LiFoi Teora Seismic Station 50 Km Seismic Stations and Local Control Centers The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

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Wi-Fi Radio Link Trevico S. Angelo dei Lombardi ToppodiCastelgrande Contursi Picerno CNR-IMAA Local Control Center Lapio Rocca S. Felice S. SossioBaronia Rocchetta S. Antonio Bisaccia Andretta Calitri Ruvo del Monte ToppodiCastelgrande Avigliano San Fele Bella MuroLucano 2 MuroLucano 1 Colliano Campagna Senerchia Montella Nusco Postiglione S. Arsenio Caggiano Vietridi Potenza Satriano Pignola Lioni Monte LiFoi Teora Seismic Station 50 Km 5 LCCs HP Proliant DL140 SeisComP Earthworm Local Control Centers: Virtual Sub-Networks The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

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Wi-Fi Radio Link Repeater 7 GHz Radio Link Point-to-Point HDSL Internet Trevico S. Angelo dei Lombardi ToppodiCastelgrande Contursi Picerno CNR-IMAA Local Control Center Lapio Rocca S. Felice S. SossioBaronia Rocchetta S. Antonio Bisaccia Andretta Calitri Ruvo del Monte ToppodiCastelgrande Avigliano San Fele Bella MuroLucano 2 MuroLucano 1 Colliano Campagna Senerchia Montella Nusco Postiglione S. Arsenio Caggiano Vietridi Potenza Satriano Pignola Lioni Monte LiFoi Teora Seismic Station 50 Km Current Communication System: HDSL + Internet + Radio-Links The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

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Example of Local Control Center Hosted by Astronomical Observatory Property of AMRA

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Data Information Flow

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Earthworm (USGS, ) Modular System Independent Scalable Connectable Robust Real-Time Data Management: EarthWorm

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Seisgram VRML - 3D View

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Ground shaking maps Using ShakeMap ® Testing an alternative technique (GRSmap) (Visit the poster by Convertito et al) A simulated M 6.6 earthquake located at center of ISNet

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Blue: Mesozoic; Green: Quaternary; Red: Tertiary- Quaternary (Volcanic); Yellow: Tertiary. 1.QVTM classification map for Campania – Lucania region 2.Estimation of corrective coefficients from the spectral ratio technique Spectral ratio for station CLT3 M Q V T QVTM classification and site amplification coefficients

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Arenella District: 5.25 km^2; 72,000 inhabitants; > 1,400 buildings > 85% Reinforced Concrete pre-code residential buildings Structural Survey of RC buildings in the test area (AMRA) Near-Real-Time Damage Assessment at Naples WP3: AMRA & NORSAR

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Near-Real-Time Damage Assessment at Naples WP3: AMRA & NORSAR Vulnerability analysis of the building stock (AMRA) Loss assessment based on shakemaps (NORSAR) Irpinia 1980 scenario

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ISNet Bulletin (http://lxserver.ov.ingv.it)

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Automatic Picking RT Earthquake location RT Magnitude estimation PGx prediction at the target sites PRESTo - Probabilistic & evolutionaRy Early warning SysTem

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Block diagram of the PRESTo software package PRESTo: a new stand-alone software tool for earthquake early warning

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The effort to build an EEW System is both technological and scientific The effort to build an EEW System is both technological and scientific Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) Real Time Location fully probabilistic algorithm starts location with just one triggered station converges to standard algorithm results Real Time Magnitude correlation between early P and S peaks and final magnitude probabilistic and evolutionary algorithm based on Bayes theorem EEW Development at AMRA PRESTo - Probabilistic & evolutionaRy Early warning SysTem

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WHAT WE NEED TO DO: Improvement of ISNet Quantitative evaluation of the early-warning system performances Target applications OK, NOW THE ISNet RELATED EWS IS RUNNING ARE WE REALLY SURE ?

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7 GHz Radio Link Repeater Wi-Fi Radio Link Lapio Rocca S. Felice S. SossioBaronia Rocchetta S. Antonio Bisaccia Andretta Calitri Ruvo del Monte ToppodiCastelgrande Avigliano San Fele Bella MuroLucano 2 MuroLucano 1 Colliano Campagna Senerchia Montella Nusco Postiglione S. Arsenio Caggiano Vietridi Potenza Satriano Pignola Lioni Monte LiFoi Teora Seismic Station Trevico S. Angelo dei Lombardi ToppodiCastelgrande Contursi Picerno CNR-IMAA Local Control Center 50 Km - Communication system with fully proprietary radio-links - LCC strengthening (i.e. solid state disks) - Add low cost innovative seismic sensors to increase ISNet stations and for urban (structural) monitoring Improvement of ISNet

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The main test would be to wait until a significant number of earthquakes have been recorded, also of medium to large energy, and to verify the number of alarms that have correctly been sent, along with the number of false alarms and alarms missed. To verify the significance of each alarm, including the useful time before the arrival of the destructive seismic wave (lead time), and the predicted amplitude at a site with respect to that which is actually recorded. (For instance, the EEWS operating in Japan by JMA was tested for 29 months, starting in February During this period, the JMA sent out 855 earthquake early warnings, with only 26 recognized as false alarms due technical problems or human error) EW SYSTEM PERFORMANCE (HOW CAN IT BE VERIFIED WHETHER AN EEWS IS WORKING CORRECTLY? )

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Currently in southern Apennines only low M eqs Test with low magnitude earthquakes Off line test using seismograms (files) recorded by other seismic networks Test with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet Export the developed methodology

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Tests with low magnitude earthquakes Application of PRESTo to an Irpinia microeq M L = 2.5

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Off line test using seismograms recorded by other seismic networks Application of PRESTo to the June 14, 2008, 08:43 (JT), Mw = 6.9 Iwate eq (Japan) Screenshot of PRESTo, processing the SAC files of the Iwate earthquake Evolution with time of the magnitude estimate and of its uncertainty. The vertical red bar marks the estimated origin time (T 0 ) of the earthquake. The interval (6 sec) elapsed from the origin time to the first magnitude estimate with a low uncertainty is highlighted by a yellow dashed pattern

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Target 2 –dist 38 km Target 1 – dist. 58.km Estimated S-waves arrival Lead Time Final estimate of the earthquake location (red star) and lead times The seismic stations are shown as orange triangles. Two stations are highlighted as possible targets to be alerted by PRESTo. Application of PRESTo to the June 14, 2008, 08:43 (JT), Mw = 6.9 Iwate eq (Japan)

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Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet Application of PRESTo to synthetic seismograms of 1980, Ms = 6.9 Irpinia eq

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Computation of synthetic seismograms for a large number earthquake scenarios We introduce two main parameters: Prediction error definition PE = Log 10 (PGV obs /PGV pred ) Where PGV obs are measured on synthetics and PGV pred are predicted by the early warning procedure (PE is computed as a function of time for the whole number of simulated eqk scenarios) Effective Lead Time Time interval between the S-arrival at the target and the time at which the prediction error distribution is stable (no significant variation of magnitude, location after this time). Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet

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Computation of synthetic seismograms for a large number of M6 and M7 earthquake scenarios Off-line, but sequentially application of the EW chain of methodologies to investigate the areal distribution of lead- time and prediction error on PGV Network ISNet Network INGV + Virtual 300 rupture scenarios for a M 6.9 earthquake 90 rupture scenarios for a M 6.0 inside the network 90 rupture scenarios for a M 6.0 at the border of the network Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet

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Synthetic seismograms Hybrid source model based on k-square slip distribution (Gallovic and Brokesova, 2008) Complete wavefield Green function in a1-D velocity model Waveforms have been noise contaminated and convolved by the site transfer function to account for site effects Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet

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Log(PGV) TRCEW Directivity, radiation pattern and point-source attenuation law determine the azimuthal variation of the prediction error distribution Strong directivity Weak directivity Effects of source complexity on the prediction error Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet

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EW System performance (M 7): Effective Lead-Time Time interval between the S-arrival at the target and the time at which the prediction error distribution is stable (no significant variation of magnitude, location after this time). Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet

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EW System performance (M 7): Prediction error Probability of Prediction Error The probability that the prediction error (PE=log(PGV true ) – log(PGV esti )) is within 1- sigma interval of the standard error on the Ground Motion Prediction Equation. High values of PPE means high performance of the system in terms of prediction of ground shaking level at the target. Small errors Large errors Tests with synthetic seismograms computed at ISNet

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Conclusions Need for a quantitative evaluation of the Early-Warning system performances in terms of expected lead times, predicted ground motion intensity along with their uncertainties, for the main regional targets (export our procedures on other seismic networks) Need to identify target applications (i.e. shut-down of equipments, saufguards of life-lines, alert for hospitals, schools, transportation networks,…) and to design and develop ad hoc control systems and mechanisms for real-time damage reduction

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