1. { Krogh Seminar – Research Presentation Zach Kay, Matthew Quallen

2.  Foreign aid as a retaliatory mechanism? Research Question

3.  Retaliation in the Literature (Davis, Bermeo) 15-20% of Cases  “Power Hypothesis” (Guzman, Simmons) Strong states muscle out weaker ones Background

4.  We hypothesize states will use aid to control WTO outcomes, filings Hypothesis

5.  Our Data – -dichotomous indicators -Vreeland et. Al  Independent variable Lagging and leading versions  Dependent variable Odadis_USA, Ln? Delta?  Controls Baseline from Vreeland et. al; Population? Ln? Methodology

6. Oadis_USA, to Ln or not to Ln? Raw Data Natural Log *What effect will this have on our results?

7.  The effects of methodological choices on out outcomes -Population, ln? -Odadis_USA, ln? -Odadis_USA, delta? -Leading and lagging effects? Results

8. POPPop_ln“.” Odadis_USA+, sig, sig-, sig, ~sig-, sig, N/A Δodadis_USA+-, insig, sig+, sig, insig+, sig, N/A Ln(odadis_USA)-, sig, sig+, insig, insig+, insig, N/A Ln(Δodadis_USA)+, insig, insig-, insig, insig-, insig, N/A Results Summary

9.  Methodology affects both significance and sign  Evaluating our hypothesis? Conclusions