1. Final First Round Scenario Analysis Results David Ory (dory@mtc.ca.gov) Metropolitan Transportation Commission March 23, 2011 Presentation for Regional Modeling Working Group

2. 2 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

3. 3 Year 2005 (version 0.0). Year 2020, Current Regional Plans (v 0.0). Year 2020, Initial Vision (v 0.0). Year 2035, Current Regional Plans (v 0.0). Year 2035, Initial Vision (v 0.0).

4. 4 Which scenarios. GHG first. From air basin to nine counties. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

5. 5 2035 -15.0 percent ARB Target Initial Vision with T- 2035 Initial Vision -11.2 percent-11.6 percent Current Regional Plans -10.6 percent

6. 6 ARB Target -8.8 percent Current Regional Plans -7.0 percent 2020 Initial Vision -10.3 percent

7. 7 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

8. 8 Population Synthesizer

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12. 12 Price Quantity Roadway & Transit Supply

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15. 15 Image source: sedonakathy.wordpress.com Automobile Ownership

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17. 17 Image source: flickr.com/sbisson Scheduling

18. 18 2005

19. 19 2035 CRP

20. 20 2035 IVS

21. 21 Image source: flickr.com/bigtimes Activity Locations/ Travel Distance

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24. 24 Image sources: sedonakathy.wordpress.com; greencar.com Travel Mode Choice

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27. 27 2035 CRP

28. 28 2035 IVS

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30. 30 Image source: flickr.com/SpokkerJones Transit Utilization

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32. 32 Image source: flickr.com/cookieevans5 Roadway Utilization

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39. 39 Year 2005 VMT by Household Location: http://geocommons.com/maps/56363http://geocommons.com/maps/56363 Year 2035 Current Regional Plans VMT by Household Location: http://geocommons.com/maps/56379http://geocommons.com/maps/56379

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41. 41 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets  See Planning Cmte Packet. Next steps. Questions.

42. 42 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

43. 43 Find & Fix Bugs Continue sensitivity tests (HOT & gas prices) Update runs using model version 0.1 Find & Fix Bugs Continue RTP analytical work

44. 44 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.