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DoD OSINT Program: A Speculative Review

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Presentation on theme: "DoD OSINT Program: A Speculative Review"— Presentation transcript:

1 DoD OSINT Program: A Speculative Review
Robert David Steele Founder, USMC Intelligence Command Founder, OSS Network

2 The OSINT Marketplace State & Local Marketplace Federal Marketplace
50 States Spend Today: $0 Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds ($30M/state) for Community Intelligence Centers/networks Others should follow along. TOTAL: $3B/Year Federal Marketplace US Spends Today: $250M Needs to Spend: $1.5B Other Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount. TOTAL: $3B/Year Corporate Marketplace Multinationals Today: $12-15B Mostly “BI” or IT Mediocre CI or external à la carte small stuff Small Business Today: $1B Should Increase by 10X TOTAL: $100B/Year Associational Marketplace UN, Red Cross, Amnesty International, others: $100M Need to Spend: $1B+ Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards--potential for Google customers alone is $8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average.

3 OSINT Matters I "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country--the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations." Clausewitz, On War, 1832 Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know.

4 OSINT Matters II What’s on the other side of the hill? ®
All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”. Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)

5 This is what got General Schoomaker’s attention.
OSINT Matters III This is what got General Schoomaker’s attention. Strategic Planning Operational Coordination Tactical Employment Acquisition Design History Context Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies

6 Brief History of OSINT Diplomats diminished FBIS in WW II
FBIS going, going…. FRD on the margin ER&A cut, cut, cut We do secrets “On your own time…” “Use the Internet”

7 USMC Intelligence Experience
1988 MCIC start-up $10M on DODIIS Learned 90% raw info Not secret Not online Not in English Not available from DC No DoD focal point No knowledge base

8 US IC Response HPSCI Forced the Issue in 1992
FBIS claimed the turf and promptly blew it COSPO created, DIA led & screwed it up Markowitz tried hard, Dempsey blocked Tenet June 1997 slam

9 Meanwhile…. 1994 Steve Emerson got it right on jihad within the US
1996 Yossef Bodansky got it right on BL’s declaration of war 1997 Pete Schoomaker established SOCOM OSINT

10 DoD OSINT Today OSD POC Died DIA stopped OSINT No DoD Doctrine
No DoD Budget CINCS & Services & Agencies spending around $25M in complete disorder & mostly on data mining

11 Data Mining is not Data Capture
Spending $250M on data mining, and less than $10M on open source data capture, is not cool. 80% of what we need is not available to FBIS or anyone else as we are now unled, un- funded, and untrained. Forget about the letter, which requires reading the language, I’ve got the stamp…so pretty!

12 Meanwhile…. 2003 SecDef quotes Bin Laden training manual as saying Al Qaeda gets 80% of its intelligence from OSINT but… Ramps up OPSEC (good) but does not establish DoD OSINT

13 Good News I JWAC $14M SOCOM OSINT $1M+
Army OSINT Lab $3M (U. New Mexico) PACOM VIC (J-8) surviving J-2 attacks EUCOM, other CINCs spending $500K each

14 Good News II Pete Dorn did some good on the SSCI NSA AIRIES $10M?
$4.5M to Kansas $5.5M to JFCOM NSA AIRIES $10M? CIA/DI $2M? OMB Code M320 SASC Thinking…

15 Good News III Dr. Cambone gets it.
27 Feb 03 Exchange with Senator Warner “Six Points Speech” Universal coverage Strategic warning Agile, flexible Intelligent intelligence Real-time, real-world “Exquisite intelligence”

16 Proposed DoD OSINT Program
$125M start year $1.5B FOC by 2010 Corporations go on to: $150B/yr Corporate BI $15B/yr Small Business BI $8B/yr Google a la carte $1.5B/yr Homeland Security $1.5B/yr Foreign HS $1B+/yr UN/NGO It all starts with DoD…..

17 World War III Players Nation-States Private Sector Bacteria Citizens
Gangs Nation states are only ten percent of the threat. More threatening are private sector organizations that destroy people’s life savings or export their jobs, or that implant immoral capitalism abroad, enriching elites and disenfranchising all others; ethnic criminal gangs such as we see coming out of Russia, China, Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and Colombia; and bacteria. Finally, we have Mother Earth, on the verge of collapse. The Earth is tired of our talk, wants peace, an end to promises, and perhaps an end to us. [Philip Levine, 1979] Mother Earth Water-Air-Green

18 New Craft of Intelligence
Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation Our national security program must be an informed program. I am quite serious when I suggest that Washington is operating on 2% of the relevant multi-lingual information. We must create a Smart Nation that respects the lessons of history in all languages; creates cost sharing networks with other nations; harnesses the distributed intelligence in our private sector; and focuses a revitalized spy service narrowly, deeply, and effectively. I believe we can double or triple what can be known, relatively quickly, at a cost of less than $125 million in year one.

19 Baker’s Dozen Approach
Digital History Project NGO Data Warehouse Global Coverage Virtual International Task Forces Generic Open Source Intelligence Training (for all seven tribes) JFCOM Lead to Create Generic Analytic Tool-Kit Five Regional OSINT Centers (Multi-National) International Trade Center Digital Marshall Plan (also JFCOM/ATC lead) University of the Republic

20 Digital History Project
Digital History Project will, within one year, digitize essential Chinese & Islamic pages, and such other foreign language historical, political, economic, social, and related information, as needed to create a foundation for rapidly visualizing and modeling historical information relevant to current and projected threats. $5M Yr 1

21 NGO Data Warehouse NGO Data Warehouse and Network will provide free storage and network access to all NGOs, and will in cooperation with the Pearson Peacekeeping Center in Canada, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and selected lead elements of the NGO community, put vital NGO “local knowledge” online for US use. $10M Yr 1

22 Global Coverage Teams Global Coverage “Virtual International Task Forces” will establish a series of topical task forces to manage global force protection monitoring and rapid response surge assessments. A special emphasis will be placed on long-term topics not qualifying for classified collection and analysis but still vital to national security. $10M Yr 1

23 Generic OSINT Training
Generic Open Source Intelligence Training Program will create distance learning modules as well as 4-person MTT to visit every CINC, every ally, every Embassy, every NGO, and key universities as well as key corporations, all of which will be voluntarily integrated into a global information-sharing grid. Early emphasis will be on shared templates for data capture. $10M Yr 1

24 Generic Analytic Tool-Kit
JFCOM, perhaps building on the Future Intelligence Collaborative Environment (FICE) will develop a generic multi-media analytic toolkit integrating all eighteen of the functionalities identified in 1985 by the Office of Scientific & Weapons Research. This tool-kit will be readily available to all seven intelligence tribes, internationally. $10M Yr 1

25 Regional OSINT Centers
Regional multi-national and multi-tribal OSINT Centers will be established by each of the five area commanders including NORTHCOM. Such centers will fully leverage indigenous allied and coalition partner access to local knowledge that is not digital, and to native language skills not available to US forces. $50M Yr 1

26 Regional Intelligence Center
I created our Nation’s newest all-source intelligence center from 1988 to I have served in three of the four Directorates at CIA, and I understand the real world and what can be known about the real world. I’m here to tell you that the US Government, on its own, with all the money in the world to spend, will never in a million years get it right. We must—we must—lead the way in creating regional intelligence centers that share the burden and leverage local access and local knowledge. From OSINT we can graduate to multinational clandestine and shared technical operations—but first we have to do OSINT. Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Deputy for Covert Action Thailand

27 International Trade Center
An International Trade Center and Chamber of Commerce Network will establish a web-based means of connecting and leveraging the local knowledge of all US General Managers stationed overseas, while enhancing US business access to risk and other warning information funded by the DoD OSINT Program. $5M Yr 1

28 Digital Marshall Plan The Digital Marshall Plan, with JFCOM (and ATC in the lead for NATO) will fund the accelerated introduction of Internet connectivity to areas now “dark” for U.S. forces, with a special emphasis on Muslim countries. Abandoned DoD satellite bandwidth will be repurposed to provide free T-3 connectivity where possible. $10M Yr 1

29 University of the Republic
The University of the Republic, with a Global Outreach Program, will bring together and educate “cohorts” of promising entry-level, mid-career, and senior-level subject-matter experts from across all seven tribes and across all nations, in this manner creating a multi-generational international SME reserve expert on all topics/countries. $15M Yr 1

30 Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
This is the reality that we are not ready to deal with as we are now structured and funded. We have a world that is largely unstable and at war with itself. In 2002 there were 23 conflicts killing over 1000 people a year, 79 killing under 1000 a year, and 175 violent political conflicts internal to a specific country. Neither the CIA nor the media articulate this reality to our public. You must take up this challenge. Pol Terror Level 3 Imprisonment, executions Pol Terror Level 4 Large numbers, torture Pol Terror Level 5 Entire public, no limits Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

31 Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries Instability spawns migrations, criminal activity, and disease as well as terrorism. There are 20 or so complex emergencies involving over 32 countries that are considered to be “failed states.” We have millions of refugees, millions of starving people, millions of people subject to plagues and epidemics. You know these challenges well—but until we educate America, and our citizens in turn demand action from Congress and the Executive, these threats to our Nation will continue to multiply and interact. *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

32 Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL RANDOM CYBER - DATABASE IDEO - MASS GUERRILLAWAR CULTURALWAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH (GANGS) SEERS (HOME) (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMICWAR As I discuss in my second book, copies of which are in your library, the real world presents America with four distinct threats, each completely different, each requiring completely different national security capabilities. Three of these four threat classes require very big investments in peaceful preventive measures and in human expertise. That’s where you come in. It is time for State to get back in the business of grand strategy, inter-agency planning, and inter-agency operational campaign management.

33 NATO OSINT NATO also gets it. Under the leadership of another great Army general, William Kernan, NATO, when it began expanding, adopted OSINT as its standard for establishing common understandings with Partnership for Peace nations and other coalition partners of the moment, including non-governmental organizations. As of this minute, these three publications, all available free on the Internet, represent the standard of excellence for OSINT.

34 European Intelligence Network
Open borders demand regional intelligence Decades of lax control over immigration & citizenship demand aggressive policing EUROPOL won’t do Europe has a chance to do something brilliant Let me jump from that to the current discussion of the need for a European intelligence agency. Europe, like America, must deal with decades of lax control over immigration and citizenship —terrorists have US & European passports. EUROPOL is not up to this challenge, and I do not believe that any kind of centralized pan-European agency will be effective either. Instead, I believe that Europe must create a network, with standards and templates for sharing information, not just between governments, but with the private sector. It is my hope Europe will do something brilliant.

35 New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance within national security.
50% % % % 250B vs. 400B B vs 20B B vs. 20B B vs. 32B CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security 1 i Electronic Reserve Environment Public Health Peace Navy Now let’s discuss money. A proper national intelligence endeavor, relying predominantly but not exclusively on open sources, should conclude that we cannot cut the national security budget, but that we should create four forces corresponding to the four major threat types. Big War can go down to $250 billion a year. Small war, including Ambassador Bob Oakley’s gendarme and an armed “white hat” capability, goes up to $75B. State should get $100B a year more to do peace. Homeland security needs to go up to $75B, half at the federal level, the other half at the state and local levels, to create full-blown intelligence centers and professional cadres of intelligence and counterintelligence specialists at the local level.

36 We Can Do This! Lead to the Big Dogs:
Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman Boeing, Booz, etc. Help Each Other or Get Out of the Way OSINT Professional Association Needed? OSINT has arrived.

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