Three-Day Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation Words for Each Slide.
Presentation on theme: "Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation 7 March 2008 International Intelligence Fellows Program www.oss.netwww.oss.net www.earth-intelligence.netwww.earth-intelligence.net."— Presentation transcript:
Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation 7 March 2008 International Intelligence Fellows Program Words for Each Slide in Notes
Before We Begin…. The U.S. Intelligence Community Before & After 9/11
DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Collection Failure Breakdown in Coverage and Language Access
50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
What the Czar Does… I am NOT making this up….
Analytic Matrix for Understanding, Dialog & Action Over Time Affordable, Implementable 50-Year Strategy for Using Public Intelligence to Save Humanity & Earth Credible, Complete Plan for Integrating Public Information to Create Public Understanding and Morally- Sound Sustainable Policies & Harmonized Budgets at Every Level of Action Without Centralizing Anything at All URL: Click on about EIN for 10-page brochure.http://www.earth-intelligence.net
Poverty Pandemic 5 billion globally Increasing in USA Foundation for all other threats Infectious Disease Without borders Kills rich & leaders Prevention critical Low cost medicine Environmental Degradation Changes that took 10,000 yrs now take 3 Toxicity of everything Poisoned earth/water Inter-State Conflict Security Council members sell the guns Ban on arms exports Regional peace nets Civil War Corruption Dictators (42 of 44 supported by USA) Over basics of life Genocide Resource scarcity Lifetime of learned hatreds Israel must adapt Other Atrocities Child slavery Child prostitution By name kidnapping Murder for body parts Proliferation Cluster bombs, land mines, & small arms Peaceful energy trumps nuclear bombs Terrorism Cannot win war against a tactic Law enforcement can resolve this Too much on military, not enough on aid Transnational Crime $2 trillion a year Vatican, Wall Street, USG, Mafia all are intertwined Drug cash is liquidity Corruption One mans bribe is a communitys loss of all Open Money and Open Books can fix Must improve salaries across the board Fraud Apply Tobin Tax of.0006 to all Federal Reserve transactions IRS gets same books as stockholders True Costs up front Earth Intelligence Network: High-Level Threat Summary + Two Breach of Trust Demands Electoral Reform Insist on legislation passing by 4 July08
Agriculture Local & Organic Deep Root Farming Family/Community Owned Farming Diplomacy Dogma kills Restore USIA Need global information sharing Economy End CEO Greed $10/hr minimum wage Full employment LOCAL supply chain Education Self-paced Online Apprenticeships Team Learning Learn to learn Energy Wind & Solar NOW Portable Hydrogen Two-way Grid Green capitalism Family One job per couple End overtime Community Centers Build neighborhoods Health Lifestyle Environment Natural Cures Generic at 1% of cost Immigration Enforce Labor Law GLOBAL standards Border Patrol +25,000 National Service 2 yrs Justice Pardon all marijuana offenders Wind down the prison-slave complex Eliminate corporate personality amnesty Security Wage peace not war Reduce the military- industrial complex Belief systems and morality are core. Connect 5B poor Society Universal service Universal health care Preventive medicine English required for citizenship & extended residence Water Reflect True Cost Global Manhattan Project to restore aquifers, push salt back Regional Water Authorities (Global) Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Policy Summary Debt. $9 Trillion is a lot, Debt scales & incapacitates. USA Insolvent. MUST HAVE a Balanced Budget 25 years out.
Brazil Demographic power Energy independent Macau connection to China China Energy Crisis Water Crisis Doing well on poverty Exporting wombs India Water crisis Most complex mix IT rich, farm poor Merits investments Indonesia Proving resilient Rich in resources Key to anti-piracy Could lead region Iran We overturned their democracy Persians are not ragheads Get over it & deal Russia Putin on a roll Buffer on China only if we keep it European Enormous potential Embrace & assist Venezuela Populism is not socialism Energy independent Charismatic leaders can be ignorant Wild Cards Congo Malaysia Pakistan South Africa Turkey Budget Balanced budget mandatory Medicare okay if go with generic drugs Too much on spies & military, shift $250B/yr Design Sustainable Cradle to Cradle Lease dont buy Minimize shipping End absentee owners Public Health EarthGame Reality plus budgets plus active citizens online levels the field For one third of war costs, can eliminate all ten high-level threats True Costs Every product and service can be listed in online database End-user can get true costs at point of sale via cell phone Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Challengers Summary Eight Challengers, Four Methods Our only hope is to create an EarthGame the Challengers Can Use
Affordable NOW First, get US to pay for Multinational Decision Support Centre and ASG/DS Second, creat $1 trillion a year Range of Gifts Table posted online Third, host an annual Harmonized Giving Conference for Foundations, Governments, and Corporations, with an individual donor table online.
DSS Mission Statement The Department of Safety and Security is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the programmes and activities of the United Nations System. Observation: Information is the modern means for achieving security, both for protection of UN personnel, facilities, organizations, and missions, and for the host member states and indigenous or migrant populations.
DSS Deficiencies of Concern Threat Risk Assessments are delayed & incomplete Threat Risk Assessments do not reflect 360° UN System view nor regional/adjacent threat information Threat Risk Assessments do not have a well-founded directory of Indicators, Accelerators, and Triggers relevant to UN System security. UN Missions & individual UN agencies or forces have no integrated decision-support mechanism helpful to one and all. UN System has no global directory of sources with defined biases, sponsors, or agendas. UN System is not perceived as having an effective but totally moral, legal, ethical information system helpful to both the UN System & Host Government. UN System does not have safe, efficient, or reliable (constant) means of sharing helpful information across all UN System boundaries (agencies, countries, missions, locations) UN System information is not efficiently acquired, exploited, or shared UN System has no means for identifying relevant sources, softwares, and services for multinational information sharing and internal analytics. UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security.
DSS Host Overview We Must Connect –DPA –DPI –DPKO –DSS –All Other Participating Groups –UNIIIC –UNIFIL –ESCWA –DSS –UNTSO –UNDOF Three Ps –Posture –Perception –Political Compromise Fundamentals –Food & Water –Shelter –Clothing –Education –Security JOC/JMAC useful model Member Nations creating Open Source Intelligence units (e.g. Scotland Yard) that have been very effective in achieving improved security. Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance Security & Performance for All
Nine Pillars of Vulnerability Mitigation in UN System Security POLITICAL COMPROMISE MEDIA MANAGEMENT MANDATE & MISSION POSTURE & PERCEPTION INFORMATION MANAGEMENT OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES PHYSICAL SECURITY TECHNICAL SECURITY HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (Defensive Passive Counter- Surveillance, Surveillance Detection, NOT Offensive Penetration) InformationOpen, Legal, Ethical Informationis the Essential Means for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every Function and Mission.
Conceptual Opportunity IOSAS –Integrated –Open –Source –Analytical –Support UNODIN –United –Nations –Open-Source –Decision-Support –Information –Network Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System. Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centers exist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert. Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning, equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to establish a global grid that makes the UN System the worlds best Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity.
Goal of the Training Initiative The goal of this training initiative is to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material available, and to integrate pertinent elements of the 80% into the 20% available from currently recognized national and UN sources into an Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) mechanism. Open Source Information Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions 2.UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
Three-Day Plan Thursday Introductions of Participants Strategic View of Multinational Information Operations Discussion of Two Online Guides with Links: –www.oss.net/BASICwww.oss.net/BASIC –www.oss.net/LIBRARYwww.oss.net/LIBRARY Discussion of Current Event Information Participant Identification of Top Issues for Discussion Sources & Methods (eg NATO) How to Create a Wiki for Any Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki) NOTE: This gathering has three purposes: 1.To introduce six UN Lebanon groups to one another in person for improved sharing & support. 2.To identify global online and offline resources immediately available, free, to all participants.& their colleagues 3.To begin the process, with this Class Before One of defining how best to enhance UN access to and exploitation of multinational information among DSS, DPA, DPI, IM. Friday Sources –24/7 Call-In Number –Eight Sharing Tribes –Source Directory –Belief Systems –Financial Sources –Subscription Sources –Password-Protected Methods –Internet Speed –Online versus Personal –Cultural Factors –Creating Flow –Forecasting –Summaries & Opinions Indicators, Accelerants, & Triggers (Share & Improve) Empowering Technologies –Ingestion –Sense-Making –Sharing –SILOBREAKER Organizational Engineering –The Boss –The Source –The Budget –The Public Saturday Security Risk Assessment (Training Exercise) - Brief Senior Person from Each of Six UN Elements - Establish missing Essential Elements of Information (EEI) - Discuss the needs of senior officers (e.g. Commissioner, spokesperson for UNIFIL) Open Dialog Challenge Questions Specify follow-up actions for instructor and for participants in next thirty days Instructor to develop a proposed syllabus for UN DSS open source decision support information network (UNODIN) and with help from participants, a draft UN Handbook on Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support. NOTE: all opinions are personal and off the record.
Class Before One A training conceptbefore the first official class, there is always a Class Before One that helps develop the need, the solution, and the presentation. You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer.
Imagine the UN System as a Wealth Creation Network Information Management is the center of gravity for UN System.
We were here in 2006… 9-11 & Katrina, then multiple policy failures Here in 2008! US public scared back into reading and thinking; 75K amputees, GAO declares USA insolvent, 27 secessionist movements, home rule up, and corporate personality down. Critical Junctures Public Advantage I
TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW Public Advantage II Localized Resilience Sustainable Reality-Based Transpartisan Budgets
Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Public Advantage III
National Military Law Enforcement Business Academic NGO-Media Citizen+ Public Advantage IV
Public Advantage V This is the real End Game
Future Vision for Global Information Sharing & Management
is the single best tool, free for nowwww.silobreaker.com Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours. Organizations Fateh Al-Islam Al Qaeda Gama´a al-Islamiyya Fatah Party Show More Key Phrases Refugee Camp Terrorist Group MartyrdomRefugee Camp Terrorist Group Martyrdom AllotmentAllotment Show More Topics Civil Disruption / Riots Democratization Land Forces Territorial Disputes Show More Cities Tripoli (Libya) Beirut Damascus ʿ Amman Show More Countries Lebanon Syria United States Israel Show More Quotes...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,' according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007] FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese TroopsLebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy commanderFatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops Documents matching your search Documents | Stories All (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0) Documents Sort by: Date | Relevance While Gaza burnsWhile Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007 Current Story Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam No. 2 killed
Intelligence is a process that creates decision- support. It is NOT defined by secret sources & methods. The Brahimi Report, Military Advisors to the Secretary General, and The High Level Threat Panel all validate urgency of creating a UN/NGO global decision support and multinational information sharing network. Intelligence = Decision Support
Orientation, Not Micro-Training You will learn more on your own, and by sharing with one another, than can be taught here in three days has the primary linkswww.oss.net/BASIC has 30,000 pages from 750+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and also searchedwww.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 Consider viewing the lectures and movies first, especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules, and the movie on Creating the World Brain.
Analysis is a Profession Four Ds –Discovery –Discrimination –Distillation –Delivery If you do nothing else, read the Analytic Tradecraft booklet by Jack Davis, easily accessed online, free, via Facts Are Not Enough –History –Cultural Context –Adjacent Players –Localized Indicators, Accelerators, Triggers –Sharing 24/7 –Cast a Wide Net –Wild Cards Abound –Thinking Matters More Than Technology
Ten High-Level Threats Poverty Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Inter-State Conflict Civil War Genocide Other Atrocities Proliferation Terrorism Transnational Crime Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You
Open Sources & Ten Threats Economic and social threats including 95% –poverty,99% –infectious disease and 95% –environmental degradation90% Inter-State conflict75% Internal conflict, including 90% –civil war, 80% –genocide and 95% –other large-scale atrocities95% Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation)75% Terrorism80% Transnational organized crime80% On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN Systems Information Management is not.
Scotland Yard OSINT 1.Created Open Source Branch in SO-11 in This helped put more terrorists and arms smugglers in jail faster and cheaper (instead of 3000 Euro for a surveillance team, 30 Euro for an address) 3.Unanticipated bonus: increased property and financial assets that could be confiscated from convicted organized crime bosses.
Twelve Action Areas Agriculture Diplomacy Economy Education Energy Family Health Immigration/Migration Justice Security Society Water Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies. Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness. If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This.
Prediction/Prevention Self protection Environmental Security Retaliation Analysis Cannot Do It All You Everyone Else 1.Improve Sources 2.Improve Sharing 3.Improve Analysis 4.Improve Decisions by Supported Bosses
Model for Analytic Purpose Probability Casualty Potential Surprise
Hezbollah, Iran, Regional Surprise Warning, meaning, need, elsewhere 14 Aug 07 News Release Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah promises surprise if Israel attacks Lebanon again. Hezbollah has not been disarmed15,000 rockets remain hidden (other source) Lebanon divided, Israeli soldiers still captive, situation is volatile Direct negotiations could help, truth & reconciliation Israel may not appreciate full extent of Iranian ability to provide supporting attacks, e.g. exploding buildings in Tel Aviv, cutting of US land supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad, Sunburn missile attack against Maritime Force. Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the most likely to take unilateral violent action that will trigger the surprise. Probability: High Damage: Very High Surprise: Strikes Outside of Lebanon, Not by Hezbollah Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv
The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATIONINFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information. Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution. Why Analysts Are Special
Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness STRATEGIC Integrated Application OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Sustainability Civil Allies Geographic Location Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance Military Availability Civil Infrastructure Geographic Terrain Geographic Resources Military Lethality Military Reliability Civil Psychology Civil Stability Geographic Atmosphere Levels of Analysis: Threat Changes! This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis, and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms.
Creating an Analysis Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation Six people can leverage global open sources for an entire Ministry or Service or Command This reduces duplication while increasing decision support to all bosses Saves money and creates value that can be shared with host country and others Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
Seven Tribes (Eight) Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGOs Religions, Clans, Labor Unions, Citizen Observers Media
New Decision-Support Paradigm OLD NGOs Dont Do Policy Over Intelligence Unilateral Mostly Secret Technical Emphasis Collection Emphasis One-language filter Mistakes hidden Short-term thinking NEW Brahimi Report ++ Intelligence Over Policy Multilateral Mostly Public Human Emphasis Analysis Emphasis Multi-lingual filters Mistakes acknowledged Long-term thinking
Open Source Intelligence I Lessons of History I Lessons of History China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Neither the academics nor the government have done well here. We need to fund both specialists in history, and a massive digitization project for Chinese, Islamic, other key histories.
Open Source Intelligence II Multinational Burden Sharing II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning No one has the time, money, or ability to cover the world. We must find new means of sharing the burden of collection, translation, digitization of global open sources in 33+ languages. The Internet is vital.
We must establish open protocols for linking and leveraging the other tribes: military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious. A global intelligence federation is needed. Open Source Intelligence III Leveraging the Private Sector III National Intelligence Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Enhancing Performance I Data standards and sharing matter Its the back and forth that allows DNA to define life. Open Human Imagery Signals From north to south, east to west, if the information is not entered digitally and according to some agreed upon standard, it will not be shared and will not contribute to UN early warning or decision support. Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight.
Enhancing Performance II 24/7 Geospatial Plot is Vital There is no substitute for a 24/7 watch center that has a geospatial plot and can combine a knowledge of intelligence sources with a real-world depiction of locations, vehicles, targets, and individuals.
Enhancing Performance III Fail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination We are our own worst enemy. Compartmentation and security are the enemy of timely intelligence. Sources achieve their greatest effect when combined, not when isolated. Okay, so maybe I was wrong not to tell you about my source--but you should have told me first…...
TECHNICALHUMAN III - External Information EXTERNAL INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Data Conversion Data Visualization Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Trip Reports Churning (Rotationals) Local Knowledge Expert Hires Just Enough, Just in Time Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Customer Monitoring Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital Rolodexes/ Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training Business I ntelligence Institutionalized E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work The Big Picture Four processing quadrants
Processing Quadrant #1 Knowledge Management Know what you know Do not lose data, insights, links Integrate people, projects, vendors, times, places, objects Optimize application of technology to internal information INTERNAL Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Project Management Data Conversion Automated Analysis
Processing Quadrant #2 Collaborative Work Human Capital Inherent in People Who They Know How They Know When They Know What They Do Who They Tell How They Feel INSIGHT Employee Brand Names Rolodexes Directories Cell Telephone Networks Trip Reports Rotationals Training
Processing Quadrant #3 External Information Acquisition Peter Drucker says this (external) must be the focal point for the next 50 years of innovation OLD: spend on bodies & technology NEW: spend on external information services in all languages, from all sources, all the time EXTERNAL Local knowledge Expert hires just enough, just in time Customer monitoring Government monitoring Technology monitoring Environment monitoring Legal, ethical, open!
Processing Quadrant #4 Organizational Intelligence Data standards Data entry mandated Storage & retrieval Historical access without legacy system training Employee shoeboxes integrated/not lost MEMORY Intellectual Property Organizational Memory Meta-Data History of Information Electronic/Human Links Survive Human Turnover
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Finished Intelligence and Reporting A B C Processing Desktop: Analytic Toolkit Eighteen Computer- Assisted Capabilities
Processing Desktop No Easy Solutions, Not Integrated Plan Extend Report Share OSALAT Copernic Collect Excaliber Topic Analyst Workbench Identifier, SIFT, OnTopic, Labrador GMS, Athens Aerotext Intelligent Miner For Text Analyze Content Extractor Information Portal, Comprendium ClearForest Suite CrimeLink I2 Analyst Notebook **C-4-U Scout **CI Spider **Knowledge.Works **Market Signal Analyzer **E-Sense **Corporate Intelligence Service **TextAnalyst **Plumtree Corporate Portal **Powerize **Strategy! ** Wincite **WisdomBuilder ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report Groove? EDGE? MindMap? SYSTRAN+? Other CATALYST Elements? DARPA STRONG ANGEL? Google Silobreaker
USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated. Collection: Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro (Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper) Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT! (Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval); Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer) Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval) Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product development but manual in nature Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) is better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo (Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages (primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's
Rule 7 Two levels down is the new standard Nation-states are old targeting standard New standard is at the province, company, and individual level This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate State Targets -- Lots of Assets Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets
Rule 13 Cross-fertilization matters more Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source- -the linear paradigm New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources Consumer Source CollectorAnalyst
Rule 15 Collaborative Work & Informal Deals Rise Intelligence collectors and analysts will have personal brands Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle new problems Electronic access more important than physical location
Rule 18 Collection doctrine more sophisticated FIND the data if you already know it GET the data if it can be gotten free from an ally or NATO or the church BUY the data from the private sector TASK organic collectors as a last resort FIND -- free, internal GET -- free, allies BUY -- low cost TASK -- expensive
Rule 21 Strategic intelligence matters more Estimative intelligence must be restored as one of the primary objectives of analysis Intelligence must support preventive action (in advance of the threats maturing), and budget trade-off decisions FUTUREPAST NOWOPTIONS
Security Risk Assessment Political: History, Incidents, UNIFIL Vital Media: Local, Regional, International Security: Mission, Facilities, Units in Motion, Individuals (Vulnerabilities & Mitigation) Important Points of Mention –Place for anything not fitting template –Distinguish between facts and opinions DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic (UN needs pro-active media strategy, media play, good & bad, vital)
SRA Process and Stages –Introduction –Stage One: Programme Assessment –Stage Two: Threat Assessment –A. Situational Awareness –B. Determination of Threats –Stage Three: Vulnerability Assessment –A. Vulnerabilities –B. Strengths –Stage Four: Risk Analysis –Stage Five: Select Options –A. General Options –B. Improved Minimum Operating Standards (MOSS) –Stage Six: Make Decisions –A. Step One: Determine Priorities and Create a Timeline –B. Step Two: Determine Funding and Resource Needs –Stage Seven: Implementation –Stage Eight: Review and Monitoring A B C 1: Mission 2. Facilities 3. Movement 4. Individuals A: Beirut B. North C: South Remember: the Threat CHANGES Depending on the Level of Analysis (e.g. Local versus Provincial versus National)
Amazon Could Be World Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit
360° 24/7 All Languages…. UN Could Monetize Its Information
Become the Earth Intelligence Network Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
Brazil China Indonesia India Indonesia Wild Card(s) Venezuela Russia USA European Union Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All Levels Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats Solution: Abandon the War Metaphor & Secrecy, Move Directly to Information Peacekeeping & Transparent Reality-Based Budgeting Real-world Real-time Dollars & Sense
Political Compromise Implications for safety and security Forget about national analysis Focus on regions, tribes, clans, families. Grasp history as a foundation. Visualize competing equities. Value transparency and integrity. The UN System must always be perceived as moral and free of bias.
Media Management Media is not just the broadcast main media but also the Internet, sermons, and other forms of narrowcast. Monitoring the media is an essential aspect of situational awareness. Spin is misunderstood as manipulation. The UN System must focus on getting its message into all forms of media, this is a vital aspect of intangible security.
Mandate & Mission The UN mandates and mission are inherently flawed for lack of adequate decision support, inclusive of a grasp of history and a nuanced understanding of all regional actors. Security comes from accuracy of understanding, before and during the mission.
Posture & Perception Posture defines perception. A lack of clear communication to every actor of relevance to the UN System is a death wish. Posture is a message. Perception is the mission. Every action the UN System takes to communicate its goodness, its good works, is one less bullet, one less bomb.
Information Management The UN System is operating at less than 20% of capacity for two simple reasons: –Lack of 100MB Internet access for every UN employee at work and at rest. –Lack of access to the 80% of the open source information needed to be effective at the strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and technical levels. Information is security. Information is efficiency. Information will define the UN System of the future.
Operational Procedures The threat to the UN System is as follows: Internal bureaucracy and big egos/small minds Lack of full access to all relevant information Recalcitrant Member Nations Organized opposition groups Internal espionage from Member Nations Lack of employee training and situational awareness Lack of focus by managers at all levels Lack of funding or influence over external funds Information management can resolve all of these deficiencies.
Physical Security Physical security of fixed installation is the most tangible mission of DSS, and also the least important. Virtual security is much more important and demands total situational awareness and total efficiency. Morality, and the perception of the UN System as unbiased and totally for the good of the community being served, is the ultimate security.
Technical Security Defensive surveillance detection, and especially alert human intelligence able to observe and detect hostile surveillance of UN System sites and individuals, is the single most essential function of DSS. Technical surveillance detection requires both constant audio-visual coverage, and constant human and technical review of the captured images and sounds.
Human Intelligence DSS is best served by having the most intelligent, dedicated, and intuitive humans on the planet. There is no higher moral duty than to serve the UN System by protecting its missions, facilities, movements, and individuals. Security is not about guns. Security is about minds in constant action.
Information Peacekeeping #1 Changing What Nations Spend Money On, While Focusing $1T in Charitable Funding for Ten Threats & Twelve Action Areas Public intelligence can change public spending priorities Less on military, more on everything else Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace
Information Peacekeeping #2 Changing When & How We Intervene Public warning can change public policy –More Prevention –More Peacekeeping –More Education –More Long-Term Aid –Less Corruption –Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. Inconvenient Warning & Warning Fatigue Are Obstacles.
Information Peacekeeping #3 Changing Who Does the Thinking & the Deciding on Public Budgets Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action Berto Jongmans map is Reference A--we must all support him.
Information Peacekeeping #4 Changing How the World Views Intelligence Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex
Information Peacekeeping #5 Changing the Strategic Focus Connectivity everywhere Content is digitized Coordination of standards and investments C4 Security across all eight tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets
Information Peacekeeping #6: Creating Infinite Wealth for the Five Billion at the Bottom of the Pyramid Representative Books: –End of Poverty –Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid (Prahalad) –Revolutionary Wealth –Infinite Wealth –Wealth of Knowledge –Wealth of Networks –How to Change the World Major Lecture: –Open Everything at Todays economy: –Seven Trillion/Year –Focused on 1B Rich –Two Trillion Illicit Tomorrows economy: –Ten Trillion/Year –Focused on 5B Poor –Transparent Budgets Eliminate Corruption –Green Capitalism True Cost Known Cradle to Cradle Re-Use Not Re-Cycle
Recommendations for Tribunal 100MB Internet access for every employee, at work and at home, is vital to both security & efficiency. Budget for outsourcing commercial decision- support, e.g. threat evaluation of The Hague (three groups: entrenched anti-Tribunal families; potential host families for incoming terrorists; and discreetly approached friendly families who can provide Early Warning. Establish a 24/7 Watch Center with a widely- publicized address and telephone number with Arabic speaker always on duty even if from home.
Recommendation for UN The Coalition Coordination Center is immediately available as the worlds first multinational information sharing and analytic support center. All you have to do is get each of your Missions to the UN to raise the need for such a center which will not use secret sources or methods.
United Nations Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, Decision Support Brahimi Report applies Secretary General needs global decision support network instead of 77 libraries & isolated data bases Information can prevent conflict, create stabilizing wealth and possibly fund all future UN operations through monetization of information.