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Impact of Globalization on Intelligence: Context & Challenge National Academy for Political & Strategic Studies Santiago, Chile --- 25 November 2010 Robert.

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Presentation on theme: "Impact of Globalization on Intelligence: Context & Challenge National Academy for Political & Strategic Studies Santiago, Chile --- 25 November 2010 Robert."— Presentation transcript:

1 Impact of Globalization on Intelligence: Context & Challenge National Academy for Political & Strategic Studies Santiago, Chile November 2010 Robert David STEELE Vivas

2 Preface: Global Trends Defining the Intelligence Environment Prefacio: Tendencias mundiales Definición de Medio Ambiente de Inteligencia 0 of 9

3 Key Negative Trends Collapse of complex societies: catastrophe from disaster for lack of resilience & adaptation as well as corruption Acts of Man creating Acts of God: natural disasters will be more frequent & more severe as we cement more land Acceleration of Earths Demise: changes that used to take 10,000 years now take THREE years; absent Real Time Science and Real Time Public Policy (online, deliberative, transparent) we die Shock Capitalism continues to loot the Earth and has turned USA into a Third World countryUAE (Dubai) is the new Switzerland Political Corruption ascendant 44 dictators, both Republican and Democratic parties are running on empty and very corrupt, elites in towns across America have sold us out

4 Key Positive Trends Wealth of networks : fortune at the bottom of the pyramid, peace through connectivity, wealth from sharing information GreenMind : Biomimicry, beneficial bacteria, green chemistry, Moral capitalism : natural capitalism, green to gold, cradle to cradle, home rule, eat local, end of corporate personality Democratic Information : true costs at point of sale Left Hand of God : faith-based dialog and diplomacy, obvious need to end of our support to 42 of 44 dictators, shunning of cults Peer to Peer People Power : from the Tao of Democracy to localized Wisdom Councils to Blessed Unrest to the Clock of the Long Now.

5 Introduction: American Mistakes & A Universal Future Introducción: Los errores de América y un futuro universal 1 of 9



8 USA $75B/Year = 4% At Best 80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge.

9 Three Eras of National Intelligence Secret War ( ) Spies, Covert Action Strategic Analysis (1940 – 1980) Analysts & Spies, Focus on Secrets Smart Nation (1995 – Future) Collective Intelligence, Global Game Eight Tribes Sharing & Sense-Making

10 Theories for 21 st Century Intelligence Teorías de Inteligencia del Siglo 21 2 of 9

11 Take back the powerOpen Secrets now Open Data…. If you read nothing else, read Chapter 15, New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence

12 Federal Reserve World Bank IMF WTO MICC Global Elites Tribes Religions Hidden Powers Private Security


14 Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Atrocities Proliferation Terrorism Transnational Crime Health Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Security Society Water Major Players* Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards Agriculture *Other than European Union (EU) and USA.

15 Mapping the Implications and Limitations of Globalized Information Mapeo de las implicaciones y limitaciones de la información globalizada 3 of 9


17 We Can Only See 2% of the Relevant Information Most of What We See Are Lies, Distortions, and Propaganda,

18 INFORMATION OPERATIONS (IO): All Languages All the Time

19 Linear versus Diamond Paradigm Rule 13: Cross-Fertilization Matters More CONSUMER ANALYST COLLECTOR SOURCE

20 Intelligence from Open Sources in Time of Globalization Inteligencia de fuentes abiertas en tiempo de globalización 4 of 9

21 Open Library Open Schools Open Source Intelligence Open Borders Open Business Open Carry Open Communications Open Culture Open Government Open Hardware Open Intelligence Open Library Open Money Open Networks Open Schools Open Search Open Skies Open Society Open Software Open Space Open Spectrum … Open Everything Open Borders Open Skies Open Source Software Open Communications Open Networks Open Society Open Spectrum Open Money Open Search Open Business Open Hardware Open Culture Open Space Open Government Open Carry

22 OSINT Utility at Four Levels Strategic Planning History Context Operational Coordination Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Tactical Employment Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Acquisition Design Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies



25 The Global Tribes of Intelligence Las tribus Mundial de la Inteligencia 5 of 9


27 GOV MIL LEA BUS ACAD NGO-Media CIVIL Seven Tribes of Intelligence (Eight if NGO-Media Separated) Three Views on the Nature of Information (Red Secret, Green Open) WE THE MILITARY MUST LEAD THE WAY IN TRANSFORMING INTELLIGENCE Government Intelligence Is Inside Out and Upside Down Using Wrong End of the very expensive telescope

28 Government Foreign State/Province County/District Commercial Multinationals National Chains Small Business Civil Society Citizen Advocacy Labor Unions Religions Academia Humanities Sciences Social Sciences Law Enforcement EUROPOL INTERPOL UNASUR? Media Internet/Blog Old Print Old Broadcast Military Own Allied Coalition Non-Governmental Charities Foundations International Organizations YOUR ORGANIZATION SECRET SOURCES & METHODS OPEN SOURCES & METHODS


30 Creating the Virtual Intelligence Cloud of Clouds Creación de la Nube de las Nubes de Inteligencia Virtual 6 of 9





35 Multinational Multiagency Information-Sharing & Sense-Making Múltiples agencias multinacionales Intercambio de información y Sentido de decisiones 7 of 9

36 UNASUR M4IS2 Multinational Multiagency Multidisciplinary Multidomain (M4) Information-Sharing & Sense-Making (IS2)


38 M – Mass – Concentrate combat power & determine time and place Mass the aggregate common sense of the public, sharing information & wisdom O – Objective – Direct every military operation against a clearly defined decisive and obtainable objective Objective: the collective good achieved through appreciative inquiry and sustainable precisely because it reflects group consensus O – Offensive - move faster than the enemy (get inside their Observe, Orient, Decide, Act or OODA Loop). Openness is the means of achieving public accountability through transparency, avoiding corruption and optimizing wealth creation S – Surprise – Strike the enemy at a time, a place, and in a manner for which he is unprepared Surprise is for the stupid. Cast a wide net, put enough eyes and ears on it and no bug (or corrupt action) is invisible E – Economy of Force – Allocate minimum combat power to secondary efforts Expansion of Force: here comes everybody, an Army of Davids, the network is the computer M – Maneuver – Place the enemy in a position of disadvantage through flexible application of combat power Maneuver to have no enemies but instead to create infinite stabilizing wealth and robust sustainable communities at peace U – Unity of Command – For every objective, ensure unity of effort under one commander Unity of Purpose with all groups and at all levels is the means to assure peace/prosperity S – Security – Be on guard at all times against an unexpected attack from the enemy Security just in case is expensive and often counterproductiveeducating all is best path S – Simplicity – Prepare clear, uncomplicated plans, issue clear concise orders Sensibility is the root of all good – if it makes sense others will agree, if not, reconsider


40 Chile and the Future of Intelligence in the Americas & in the Southern Hemisphere Chile y el futuro de la Inteligencia en las Américas y en el hemisferio sur 8 of 9

41 1 2 PRACTICE ON PERU, BOLIVIA, & SOUTH PACIFICAll Eight Tribes for Three Months Next, Focus All Eight Tribes on the Southern Hemisphere

42 A Poverty Agriculture & Water Immigration Education Economy Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Corruption & Crime Threats to Humanity True Costs Known Healthy Policies Peace & Prosperity ProliferationTerrorism State & Civil War Genocide & Other Atrocities Diplomacy Family & Society Health Justice & Security Creative Commons Copyright Earth Intelligence Network Energy

43 Figure 14: Global Range of Gifts Table Illustrated All those with a need, however miniscule All those with something to give Time & Space Relations Cluster of Food Need Over Time Powered by Zero Waste Mind-Sets, Enabled by Ubiquitous Information Access Benefit #1: On Demand Precision Giving Benefit #2: Elimination of Overhead Benefit #3: Harnesses Giving of Billion Individuals Who Do Not Give Now Cluster of Medical Needs Peer to peer giving Cluster of Clothing Need Harmonized Giving Organized Giving Time-Phased Harmonized Giving Peacekeeping Intelligence 21: Influence How OTHERS Spend Wks, Mos, Yrs, Decades

44 Cell Phones & Call Centers One Each: Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Russia 34 core languages right away, the other 150 within 3 years

45 Create the Southern Hemisphere Intelligence Network for Peace & Prosperity Crear la Red de Inteligencia del Hemisferio Sur para Paz y Prosperidad 9 of 9

46 Need Four Forces

47 Regional Information Center Deputy for Counterintelligence Colombia Deputy for Covert Action Venezuela Chief of Center Chile OSINT HUMINT IMINT SIGINT Digitization Translation Visualization Analytic Support Security Support Warning Estimative Countries Issues Deputy for Collection Argentina Deputy for Processing Brazil Deputy for Analysis Uruguay

48 UN Field Element Multinational Decision-Support Center With military as hub, get a grip on all information in South America MDSC Directly responsive countrys secret intelligence needs Directly supportive of UN/NGO operations in South America Provides decision-support, predictive analysis to all eight tribes


50 New Rules for the New Craft of Intelligence Nuevas reglas para el nuevo arte de la Inteligencia Epilogue Epílogo

51 001 Decision-Support is the Raison D'être 002 Value-Added Comes from Analysis, Not Secret Sources 003 Global Coverage Matters More 004 Non-Traditional Threats Are of Paramount Importance 005 Intelligence without Translation is Ignorant 006 Source Balance Matters More 007 "Two Levels Down 008 Processing Matters More, Becomes Core Competency

52 009 Cultural Intelligence is Fundamental 010 Geospatial and Time Tagging is Vital 011 Global Open Source Benchmarking 012 Counterintelligence Matters More 013 Cross-Fertilization Matters More 014 Decentralized Intelligence Matters More 015 Collaborative Work and Informal Communications Rise 016 New Value is in Content + Context + Speed

53 017 Collection Based on Gaps versus Priorities 018 Collection Doctrine Grows in Sophistication 019 Citizen "Intelligence Minutemen" are Vital 020 Production Based on Needs vs. Capabilities 021 Strategic Intelligence Matters More 022 Budget Intelligence Is Mandatory 023 Public Intelligence Drives Public Policy 024 Analysts are Managers 025 New Measures of Merit 026 Multi-Lateral Burden-Sharing is Vital

54 (Briefing with Notes Online in English & Spanish)

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