Presentation on theme: "Multinational Intelligence Can CENTCOM Lead the Way? Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition Robert David STEELE Vivas Presentation to the Coalition Coordination."— Presentation transcript:
Multinational Intelligence Can CENTCOM Lead the Way? Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition Robert David STEELE Vivas Presentation to the Coalition Coordination Center 27 January 2006 A copy of these slides are at the Modern Information Operations Portal Page at
About the Speaker 30 years overseas USMC 0302/0202/ clandestine tours Founder USMC Intel Ctr OSINT pioneer since 1988 Helped 19 governments by invitation in home country Trained 7,500 from 40 countries since 1992 #1 Amazon non-fiction reviewer Author 3 core books on IO/Intel Believe we all need/can use a Multinational Information Operations Center (MIOC) with two-way reach-back Editor 2004
DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
HUMINTSIGINTIMINTMASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost80% of value 95% of cost20% of value This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit.
Open Source Data Open Source Information Open Source Intelligence Validated Open Source Intelligence Only the in-house analyst can do this. Definitions OSINT is not something the classified intelligence community should controlit must be equally responsive to diplomats, policymakers, operators, and logisticiansas well as all-source intelligence analysts.
…nothing more than a collection of news clippings. …the Internet. …a substitute for spies and satellites. What OSINT Is Not...
Commercial Online Books & Journals Conferences & Dissertations Maps & Commercial Imagery Internet Telephone Surveys Gray Literature Complex Human & IT Services OSINT Universe Open Sources in 33+ Languages
World War III Players Bacteria Nation- States Gangs Private Sector Citizens Mother Earth Water-Air-Green
Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution
Local Threats to Global Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries
OSINT Matters I "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country-- the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations." Clausewitz, On War, 1832 Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know.
Whats on the other side of the hill? ® All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you dont know by what you do; thats what I called guessing what was at the other side of the hill. Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884) OSINT Matters II
® Strategic Planning Operational Coordination Tactical Employment Acquisition Design History Context Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies OSINT Matters III This is what got General Schoomakers attention.
Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT
Seven Views of Reality Not listening, and not sharing, costs us. Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans
New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Sources All information, all languages, all the time Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy 185 languages, 33 of them core 12 relevant dialects of Arabic Must follow television, radio, audio, street 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC Cannot be made sense of by single individual We must find a multinational integrated approach
TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW A Revolution is Underway Peer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By Changing When & How We Intervene Public warning can change public policy –More Prevention –More Peacekeeping –More Education –More Long-Term Aid –Less Corruption –Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. Between Google and Wikis, World Brain is Possible
OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM # = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global You Are Here Far Future Near Future Present Historical Memory
OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets You Are Here Gaming Future ROIs Foreign Viewpoints Reality Public Memory Secrecy rules Elites rules Act on 2% of the info. People complacent Short-term view Unilateral militarism Immoral capitalism Big stick works BUT Long-term cost not visible to public
$1B/Yr 3 $111B/Yr 10 Pay with information Pay with cash & information DoD $250M/Yr 1 $500M/Yr 2 $1B/Yr 3 $1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture. 1PB/Yr 1 5 PB/Yr 2 10 PB/Yr 3 Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground. USG 10X DoD with 1-3 year lag time. U.S. Based Corporations OMB pursuing common solutions approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now. Most of them dont get it yetstuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas. Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses. Education Everywhere All Levels Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertations to OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind by name into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus on restoring education and research as the engines for wealth production through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, we focus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation. Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits. United Nations All NGOs, World Bank, IMF Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side. Labor Unions & Religions Citizens & Advocacy Groups Its no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments. The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the I side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals) GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations) Intelink-X USA Earns Nobels Across S&T Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X USA DGI, GIC, GSC World Intelligence Network General Al Gray: Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant. Peter Drucker (paraphrase): Weve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT. Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
SECRET BIG DATA NSA-NGA SAIC HARRIS NG-MS NOT SECRET BIG DATA UN, Red Cross, NGOs… NASA, public geospatial Factiva LEXIS-NEXIS SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA Intelink ARDA ITIC JHU/APL NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA CISCO Google/Libraries Amazon Inside the Book Napster Plus Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X) SIPRNETSIPRNET
Paradigm Shift Dots dont know they are secret until some human decides this. Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation. Dots gain value from history and context. Dots gain value from speed of delivery. Dots in a foreign language are smarter. Information to one is intelligence to another.
OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Teams Crossing All Boundaries
Success Story: NATO OSINT
Success Story: Dutch OSINT Surface web is NOT the Internet (Deep web plus) matters more than www Books down, still matter as history Merging with Internet CISCO IPICS Converts Tactical Radio to Digital Packets
Success Story: USSOCOM 1997 General Schoomaker (then CINCSOC) got it and ordered OSINT Branch in JIC, taught in all SOF schoolhouses Since 2000 or so, OSINT answers 40% of all SOCOM GWOT EEI for a cost of less than $1M a year Recently General Schoomaker, now Chief of Staff of the Army, declared OSINT is a separate discipline, and Army is developing concepts and doctrine for OSINT as such.
Success Story: South African OSINT First to combine appreciation of both open source software as affordable, and open source intelligence as trust building measure Only leader of a continent- wide early warning and open source information sharing system
Success Story: UK OSINT Started with just one detective constable Leveraged global network of pro bono advisors, many met at OSS.Net conferences Cut cost of finding lairs from L3000/day to L30 in an hour by using OSINT
ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO ADDNI/OS View of OSINTOSS CEO View of OSINT OSINT HumintSigint MasintImint FI Humint SigintImint Masint Osint OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.
Possible Next Steps In-Depth One-Day Workshop here in Tampa Identify and engage with your national military OSINT POC, then exchange notes within CCC. Self-study at free web sitewww.oss.net Plan for attending IOS Jan 07 at no cost (No cost travel if group aircraft can be arranged ) Consider OSINT summit in home country Develop concepts for a CENTCOM MIOC
Spread the Word Robert David Steele Vivas CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. Intelligence Coach (unlisted) (public) voice fax Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to self-organize everywhere in the world